# If Donald Trump is so awful, then... **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 27, 2017, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-donald-trump-is-so-awful-then/780966 "2017-02-27T19:05:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2017, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-donald-trump-is-so-awful-then/780966/81 "2017-02-28T21:12:24Z")
Nate Silver, whose name I shall never again disparage, had an article a few weeks back that seems to think that, while Clinton certainly made some bad choices, the determining factor might just have been demographics. > **[Clinton’s Ground Game Didn’t Cost Her The Election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/)** > > This is the seventh article in a series that reviews news coverage of the 2016 general election, explores how Donald Trump won and why his chances were underrat… > [@Nate Silver article above](#): > > In Pennsylvania, for instance, the share of white voters without college degrees is well above average6 so the model expects an above-average shift toward Trump. And that’s exactly what happened, of course: Trump won Pennsylvania by about 1 percentage point, right in line with the model’s expectations. Wisconsin? Clinton’s roughly 1-point loss there is actually a tick better than the 3-point loss the regression model projects. The model also projects Michigan, Minnesota and Florida to be photo finishes, as they were. It has Trump favored in New Hampshire, which has a lot of white voters without college degrees, so that may have been a state where Clinton’s ground game did save her. > > On the flip side, the regression correctly projects Clinton to roughly replicate Obama’s numbers in Colorado and Virginia, as she did — even though Trump spent much more time than she did in those states. With one or two exceptions, such as Hawaii,7 it also does a good job with red states and blue states — for instance, in capturing the big shift toward Trump in Maine and the one toward Clinton in Texas. > > To be clear, these are after-the-fact projections done with knowledge of how the actual vote turned out, as opposed to pre-election predictions. But the regression is able to figure all of this out without giving any consideration to how Clinton and Trump spent their time and money. Instead, it can explain the Electoral College drop-off Clinton experienced relative to Obama based on some simple demographic variables and the 2012 vote alone. That suggests that either the ground game didn’t matter much — or that Clinton’s ground game advantage was as large as Obama’s was after all.8 > > Or it may have been a combination of both: The ground game may have helped both Obama and Clinton at the margin. But studies from political scientists find the effects of a superior turnout operation to be quite modest in presidential elections9 — usually overwhelmed by larger, macro-level factors. In 2012, for example, the condition of the economy probably mattered more than Obama’s turnout operation. And in 2016, all the news generated by Trump and the media circus surrounding him, plus major stories like the FBI’s investigation of Clinton, tended to drown out the candidates’ efforts at a piecemeal, coalition-building approach. You certainly can criticize Clinton for choosing an overall message that didn’t sell to white voters without college degrees. That’s a high-level strategic failure, however, rather than one of her field operation or her Electoral College tactics. Not spending enough time in Wisconsin and Michigan was dumb, but probably wasn’t decisive. You really need to read the whole article. It’s got graphs and things and my quote doesn’t really cover it. Silver suspects the big difference is that the Rust Belt states went for Donald’s messaging on “working class whites”. Silver doesn’t really put it in those terms but that’s what it comes down to. Silver also doesn’t address the baggage of Donald’s appeal to bitter white people or the transparent falsity of Donald’s promises to them. But really that’s all beside the point. Non-college educated white people liked what Donald was selling. That’s why Hillary lost, according to Silver. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2017, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-donald-trump-is-so-awful-then/780966/82 "2017-02-28T22:36:19Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Would you favor requiring such a test in order to vote? I’m sure that many good constitutional issues could be raised and a good debate could be had about the fundamental nature and purpose of democracy. Many would object on principle to any sort of dual-tier citizenship. But the fact remains that you’d have a very different country if the large majority of voters were reasonably informed. It’s hard to argue that it would not be a better one. The public interest is not generally served if election outcomes are based on widespread beliefs in lies or the randomness of ignorance. The idea is not without precedent: immigrants wishing to become citizens must pass a citizenship test. ---
**Author:** ![Drum\_God](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/drum_god/32/44_2.png) [@Drum\_God](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drum_God)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2017, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-donald-trump-is-so-awful-then/780966/83 "2017-02-28T22:48:02Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > Interesting you’d mention this woman. I recently watched her on Real Time with Bill Maher. I think she’s been on his show several times and has been making the rounds on various media outlets speaking out as a self proclaimed liberal in support of Trump. She claims to be strongly in support of women’s rights, pro-choice, and various other typically liberal platforms. But, she voted for Trump because she agrees with his anti- Islamic extremist policies and calls those who criticize her as being from the “Liberal Honour Brigade”. > > Listening to her speak on these issues on various venues, I question her commitment to Sparkle Motion. My wife and I were watching her on Bill Maher the other day. My wife, who only recently has started paying much attention to politics (other than informing herself enough to vote well), said of this lady, “She’s not very bright, is she?” ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2017, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-donald-trump-is-so-awful-then/780966/84 "2017-02-28T23:56:22Z")
The economy was not good enough to support a “more of the same” campaign, which is what HRC ran. And the economy was downright terrible in Michigan and had been for years, so “more of the same” just wasn’t good enough. If Bernie had been the nominee, and if he’d run against the GOP majority in Congress, framing them as the incumbents and therefore to blame, it might have worked. But Hillary was stuck with the baggage of her husband’s legacy, which was actually not that friendly to middle-income job creation. Not that many people voted for Trump. A lot of the Democratic base, having been burned by Bill Clinton and Barry Obama on economic, pocketbook issues, failed to turn out for Hillary. When I say pocketbook issues, I do \*not \*mean taxes, conservatives and some liberals tend to get get this wrong. The USA didn’t have good industrial development in the interior, but many politicians apparently thought that cheap fossil fuels and a robust stock market would be enough—which they were not. ---
**Author:** ![marshmallow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df705f/32.png) [@marshmallow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/marshmallow)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2017, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-donald-trump-is-so-awful-then/780966/85 "2017-03-01T01:43:19Z")
> [@foolsguinea](#): > > The economy was not good enough to support a “more of the same” campaign, which is what HRC ran. The way Democrats were bragging about the unemployment rate and the stock market was bewildering. Reminded me of the old GWB quote: “You work three jobs? Uniquely American, isn’t it? I mean, that is fantastic that you’re doing that.” ---
**Author:** ![Mdcastle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/958977/32.png) [@Mdcastle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mdcastle)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2017, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-donald-trump-is-so-awful-then/780966/86 "2017-03-01T03:03:46Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > You have some filter there. > > Of course, you realize that Trump’s economic policy is Reaganomics to a T, right? Same old trickle-down, voodoo economics bullshit that was disproven decades ago. > > Also, claiming that Clinton wasn’t the one talking about the issues is either deluded or revisionist. Reaganomics included free trade. Trumponomics does not. What proposal did Clinton have to deal with the pain of the working and middle classes? If she had one it got drowned out by her attacks on Trump and she did nothing to combat the perception that she simply did not care. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2017, 4:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-donald-trump-is-so-awful-then/780966/87 "2017-03-01T04:56:13Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > For a reminder, [this opinion piece, "I’m a Muslim woman and I voted for Trump,](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2016/11/10/im-a-muslim-a-woman-and-an-immigrant-i-voted-for-trump/?utm_term=.5386b533cbdc) laid out some reasons that appear grounded in rational argument to me. They don’t appear rational to me. Nomani says she’s concerned about health care. Who do you think would have done a better job of reforming health care? Hillary Clinton, who led a major health care reform effort in the nineties? Or Donald Trump, who didn’t know health care was complicated? Nomani is also a Muslim who acknowledges that there was a lot of anti-Muslim talk in the Trump administration. But she was willing to ignore that because she figured it was just campaign talk and the administration would pursue a more sensible policy when they were in power. She thought they’d have a nuanced program that distinguished between Muslim terrorists and ordinary Muslims like herself. I wonder if she still felt that way after January 25? ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2017, 5:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-donald-trump-is-so-awful-then/780966/88 "2017-03-01T05:26:47Z")
I wonder. I forget if this was posted here, but a Muslim woman who worked in the White House actually quit over the travel ban: > **[I Was a Muslim in the Trump White House—and I Lasted Eight Days](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/02/rumana-ahmed-trump/517521/)** > > When President Obama left, I stayed on at the National Security Council in order to serve my country. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2017, 12:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-donald-trump-is-so-awful-then/780966/89 "2017-03-01T12:36:39Z")
> [@Mdcastle](#): > > Reaganomics included free trade. Trumponomics does not. > What proposal did Clinton have to deal with the pain of the working and middle classes? If she had one it got drowned out by her attacks on Trump and she did nothing to combat the perception that she simply did not care. Right…like hamstringing the EPA and pushing through pipeline and coal projects is meant for anyone else but business. ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2017, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-donald-trump-is-so-awful-then/780966/90 "2017-03-01T16:07:24Z")
> [@Mdcastle](#): > > Reaganomics included free trade. Trumponomics does not. > What proposal did Clinton have to deal with the pain of the working and middle classes? If she had one it got drowned out by her attacks on Trump and she did nothing to combat the perception that she simply did not care. Cheaper medical care, job retraining, infrastructure spending - [Clinton had a lot of ideas to help the working and middle classes](https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/12/hillary-clinton-working-class/509477/), though she did a mediocre job of presenting them. ETA: And now those folks get to be screwed over by Trump and his cronies, instead. Serves them right. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2017, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-donald-trump-is-so-awful-then/780966/91 "2017-03-01T16:13:16Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > They don’t appear rational to me. What does the word “rational,” mean in this context? ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2017, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-donald-trump-is-so-awful-then/780966/92 "2017-03-01T16:20:48Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > What does the word “rational,” mean in this context? Not speaking for **Little Nemo** , but I addressed that in post #78. IMO, it isn’t rational to be a single issue voter when so many of your core issues are at odds with the policies of the candidate you support, i.e. women’s issues, freedom of expression, etc… ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2017, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-donald-trump-is-so-awful-then/780966/93 "2017-03-01T16:22:41Z")
You don’t know? You said it first, yes? If you say its a “rational argument” and someone else says it isn’t, why is it up to them to define “rational”? ---
**Author:** ![Mdcastle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/958977/32.png) [@Mdcastle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mdcastle)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2017, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-donald-trump-is-so-awful-then/780966/94 "2017-03-01T16:28:04Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Right…like hamstringing the EPA and pushing through pipeline and coal projects is meant for anyone else but business. And the poor that are hurt by high energy prices or anyone that has had their land effectively seized by the government without compensation because they can’t build on it now that some rare bug was discovered on it. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2017, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-donald-trump-is-so-awful-then/780966/95 "2017-03-01T16:40:38Z")
> [@Mdcastle](#): > > And the poor that are hurt by high energy prices or anyone that has had their land effectively seized by the government without compensation because they can’t build on it now that some rare bug was discovered on it. Personally, I think the poor are more hurt by water tables contaminated by fracking and lung disease caused by coal burning electric plants than they are by energy prices. Hey, we saved you $5 a month on power! Enjoy your cancer! And poor people don’t have land to worry about their building plans by endangered species laws. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2017, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-donald-trump-is-so-awful-then/780966/96 "2017-03-01T17:05:21Z")
He was simply pointing out that compassion and concern for the less fortunate is the very beating heart of Republican politics. Like “clean coal”, ya gotta _believe_! ---
**Author:** ![Chisquirrel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6bbea6/32.png) [@Chisquirrel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chisquirrel)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2017, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-donald-trump-is-so-awful-then/780966/97 "2017-03-01T17:10:15Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > What does the word “rational,” mean in this context? That depends on what your definition of “is” is. But deliberately voting against your interests doesn’t seem rational. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2017, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-donald-trump-is-so-awful-then/780966/98 "2017-03-01T20:13:34Z")
> [@Mdcastle](#): > > And the poor that are hurt by high energy prices or anyone that has had their land effectively seized by the government without compensation because they can’t build on it now that some rare bug was discovered on it. Riiiiight…because that’s exactly what’s on Republican minds when it comes to the environment. More like those poor business owners who have to pay extra so they don’t poison the environment as much. But wait, they won’t have to anymore. Enjoy your pipeline oil cocktail…and don’t mind that hanging cloud of coal emissions. You can pass the effects off to the next generations. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2017, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-donald-trump-is-so-awful-then/780966/99 "2017-03-01T22:14:35Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > What does the word “rational,” mean in this context? In my opinion, in this context it means voting for the candidate who is more likely to achieve the items which you identify as important. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2017, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-donald-trump-is-so-awful-then/780966/100 "2017-03-01T22:20:13Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > In my opinion, in this context it means voting for the candidate who is more likely to achieve the items which you identify as important. For many voters, “pissing off the opposing side” is an item which they identify as important. So if someone wanted to piss off the Hillary/establishment/media/pundit/SJW/Democratic/elite side, that may have been part of what propelled them to vote Trump. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-donald-trump-is-so-awful-then/780966.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-donald-trump-is-so-awful-then/780966.md?page=6)