# If Fidel passes, whither Cuba? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 20, 2012, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-fidel-passes-whither-cuba/638363 "2012-10-20T21:58:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2012, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-fidel-passes-whither-cuba/638363/1 "2012-10-20T21:58:13Z")
[Rumors abound](http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2012/10/20/cuba-continues-to-swirl-with-rumors-surrounding-health-fidel-castro/) that Fidel Castro, who has not been seen in public since March, is dead or near death. The government considers the state of Fidel’s health a state secret and strongly discourages any reporting on it. Could be true . . . if not this year, soon. Then what? If Fidel passes, can Raul keep the system going? Probably, I think. Fidel is retired anyway, so why should his death disrupt the system at all? ---
**Author:** ![Ethilrist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ethilrist/32/4604_2.png) [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2012, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-fidel-passes-whither-cuba/638363/2 "2012-10-20T22:17:17Z")
Great googly moogly but I hope they say “you know what? screw this” and pick up a democratic government so we (the only people on the planet to do so) can drop the stupid ban and start pumping our vacation dollars into the country. Not gonna happen, but it would be nice. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2012, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-fidel-passes-whither-cuba/638363/3 "2012-10-20T22:42:45Z")
Fidel was always the one who gave the regime its authority, even in retirement. Raul doesn’t have the charisma, nor the same respect. The remaining revolutionaries are mostly geriatric now, and the Castros have done little to bring along the next generation. Raul has already been liberalizing the system, allowing people to own homes and other forms of private property. They’ve just announced they will do away with the hated exit visa in December. If Fidel goes, I doubt that Raul will be able to keep things together for very long. Maybe a couple more years. But we may not see a really democratic government. Maybe something like China, with economic liberalization but government control. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2012, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-fidel-passes-whither-cuba/638363/4 "2012-10-20T23:41:46Z")
> [@Ethilrist](#): > > Great googly moogly but I hope they say “you know what? screw this” and pick up a democratic government so we (the only people on the planet to do so) can drop the stupid ban and start pumping our vacation dollars into the country. I doubt we would do so just because they got a democratic government. Most of the driving force for the continuing embargo is from the Cuban exile community in Florida, and I don’t see them as being willing to accept anything less than them being handed large amounts of money, land and power in Cuba. It’s less important for ending the embargo that Castro die off, than it is that they die off. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2012, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-fidel-passes-whither-cuba/638363/5 "2012-10-20T23:49:09Z")
> [@Ethilrist](#): > > Great googly moogly but I hope they say “you know what? screw this” and pick up a democratic government Well, they could always find a trillion dollars from somewhere. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2012, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-fidel-passes-whither-cuba/638363/6 "2012-10-20T23:58:39Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > I doubt we would do so just because they got a democratic government. Most of the driving force for the continuing embargo is from the Cuban exile community in Florida, and I don’t see them as being willing to accept anything less than them being handed large amounts of money, land and power in Cuba. It’s less important for ending the embargo that Castro die off, than it is that they die off. Maybe. But my guess is if they made some token gesture about repatriation of properties confiscated (after all, the state still owns it all, right?), and maybe some token payments to those who lost property and assets, and at the same time made some serious gestures about welcoming in US and other countries capital to develop markets and at least a hand wave at political reform…well, if they did do all that (or even some of it) and Fidel (and Raul) shuffled off, then I’m pretty sure there would be a lot of politicians who would see the advantages of welcoming Cuba back into the fold. Yeah, I know…doesn’t meet your idea of the evil US, but really it’s all about the money and at least the fig leaf of real political change. Of course, none of that is going to happen on the Cuban’s side as long as Fidel et al are still breathing, but when the brothers go it will open up a lot of possibilities for political AND economic profit, and even if you believe that the US is as evil a country that has ever exist, we DO like a nice profit, right? 😛 ---
**Author:** ![GreasyJack](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/df705f/32.png) [@GreasyJack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreasyJack)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-fidel-passes-whither-cuba/638363/7 "2012-10-21T00:14:13Z")
More importantly, will they throw a big tacky communist funeral for Fidel? ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-fidel-passes-whither-cuba/638363/8 "2012-10-21T00:52:34Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Yeah, I know…doesn’t meet your idea of the evil US, but really it’s all about the money and at least the fig leaf of real political change. :rolleyes: It’s not about the “evil US”, nor did I imply it was. It’s about America’s screwed up election system that gives such a relatively small group disproportionate power. ---
**Author:** ![Ethilrist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ethilrist/32/4604_2.png) [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-fidel-passes-whither-cuba/638363/9 "2012-10-21T00:57:42Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > Well, they could always find a trillion dollars from somewhere. Maybe they’ve been taking notes on what Iceland’s doing… ---
**Author:** ![MEBuckner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mebuckner/32/2896_2.png) [@MEBuckner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MEBuckner)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-fidel-passes-whither-cuba/638363/10 "2012-10-21T00:59:58Z")
“If”? What, is he a vampire or something? ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-fidel-passes-whither-cuba/638363/11 "2012-10-21T01:29:40Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > :rolleyes: It’s not about the “evil US”, nor did I imply it was. It’s about America’s screwed up election system that gives such a relatively small group disproportionate power. Dude, seriously…it’s you. 😛 You don’t have to imply anything…it’s in every post you make, unless you are posting in the Game room. The reason why that small group can dominate on this issue is that basically no one else really cares enough to change the status quo. That’s why we’ve had this ridiculous embargo thingy going on for year after year, decade after decade. No one cares. However, if Cuba made even some modest changes I’m pretty confident that the status quo could be changed, because people would care enough to pay attention…and that’s all politicians need is enough people to care to make it worth their while to change. Look at our relationship with China today compared to, oh, say the 50’s for a model on how this would work. Hell, the Chinese didn’t even need to do all that much to affect the change…just allow it to happen. Cuba could do it easily, if they ever actually wanted too. To date, they haven’t, but that might change if Fidel shuffles off this mortal coil and if Raul kicks the bucket sometime soon after. Watch and see…we will all live long enough to see it happen, and the reason will be that profit stuff a lot of folks despise so much. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-fidel-passes-whither-cuba/638363/12 "2012-10-21T02:28:01Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Dude, seriously…it’s you. 😛 You don’t have to imply anything…it’s in every post you make, unless you are posting in the Game room. Now you are just poisoning the well. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-fidel-passes-whither-cuba/638363/13 "2012-10-21T02:53:19Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > I doubt we would do so just because they got a democratic government. Most of the driving force for the continuing embargo is from the Cuban exile community in Florida, and I don’t see them as being willing to accept anything less than them being handed large amounts of money, land and power in Cuba. It’s less important for ending the embargo that Castro die off, than it is that they die off. What makes you say that? Have you ever been to Little Havana? Have you ever talked to any Cuban-Americans? Do you even speak Spanish? Or do you just make ignorant assumptions about brown-skinnned people? ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-fidel-passes-whither-cuba/638363/14 "2012-10-21T03:59:51Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > Or do you just make ignorant assumptions about brown-skinnned people? “Brown skinned people?” I’m talking about a relatively small group of people originating in a specific time and place. It has nothing to do with skin color, or ethic groups, or anything like that. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-fidel-passes-whither-cuba/638363/15 "2012-10-21T04:24:55Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > What makes you say that? > > Have you ever been to Little Havana? > > Have you ever talked to any Cuban-Americans? > > Do you even speak Spanish? > > Or do you just make ignorant assumptions about brown-skinnned people? I’ve been to Little Havana, I’ve talked to Cuban Americans (and Cuban Cubans), and am fluent in Spanish. I don’t think that **Der Trihs’s** assessment of the Cuban emigre community is very far off the mark. What’s your knowledge of the emigre community, may I ask? ---
**Author:** ![voltaire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voltaire/32/313_2.png) [@voltaire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/voltaire)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 5:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-fidel-passes-whither-cuba/638363/16 "2012-10-21T05:43:35Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > I’ve been to Little Havana, I’ve talked to Cuban Americans (and Cuban Cubans), and am fluent in Spanish. I don’t think that **Der Trihs’s** assessment of the Cuban emigre community is very far off the mark. > > What’s your knowledge of the emigre community, may I ask? Ditto to all of the above. I’d also point out that the Cuban exiles who fled from Castro and lost significant land holdings were/are _generally_ not brown-skinned people. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 5:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-fidel-passes-whither-cuba/638363/17 "2012-10-21T05:47:26Z")
I have my doubts that they’re just going to throw off the “gains of the revolution” and embrace American style capitalism. I would foresee a slow liberalization, but keeping along more of a socialist model. ---
**Author:** ![voltaire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voltaire/32/313_2.png) [@voltaire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/voltaire)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 5:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-fidel-passes-whither-cuba/638363/18 "2012-10-21T05:51:04Z")
^^^ Errr, except the “Cuban Cubans” part. I’ve never been to Cuba, though I would like to. I’ve been 90 miles away many times, if that counts! 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 6:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-fidel-passes-whither-cuba/638363/19 "2012-10-21T06:24:13Z")
My guess is it won’t be a major difference. Fidel Castro has been effectively out of power for several years and his brother has taken over. It won’t be like when Lenin or Stalin or Mao died. I think the real issue in Cuba right now is that Raul Castro is 81. He obviously isn’t going to be in power for a long time. I bet the real struggle in Havana is between people trying to position themselves to be his successor. And the key to the future of Cuba’s communist regime will be whether or not there is a smooth succession after Raul dies. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2012, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-fidel-passes-whither-cuba/638363/20 "2012-10-21T12:53:17Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > What makes you say that? > > Have you ever been to Little Havana? > > Have you ever talked to any Cuban-Americans? > > Do you even speak Spanish? > > Or do you just make ignorant assumptions about brown-skinnned people? What in the world are you talking about? I’ve done all those things a ton of times 'cept make ‘assumptions’ about anyone. Fact is I went to school with [**Lincoln Diaz Balart**](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lincoln_Diaz-Balart) who was spouting hatred even back at that young age & know quite well how that first generation of Cuban immigrants (and now their extremely intransigent descendants) want “their Cuba” back – which basically means all the sugar-fields and mostly anything of value there. They were Cuba’s oligarchs & aristocrats all wrapped into one. And the main reason for the rise of Castro to begin with. So yeah, **Der’s** quite right that they are watching like hawks for the fall of the regime to divvy-up Cuba back to _their_ former “splendor.” Apparently you are not aware just how rich & powerful the 'Cuban Lobby" really is (CANF at the head of course), but the main obstacle to lifting sanctions with Cuba – 60% of Americans want to, at least, re-establish [**diplomatic ties with Cuba**](http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2009/04/24/Most-in-US-favor-diplomatic-ties-to-Cuba/UPI-20301240582005/) – is precisely due to their influence. Just don’t get CANF angry…[**especially in Florida!**](http://www.republicreport.org/2012/ozzie-guillen-cuba-lobby-paralyzes-us-policy/) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-fidel-passes-whither-cuba/638363.md?page=2)