If Fidel passes, whither Cuba?

The real issue here is that American law concerning the economic embargo and such requires BOTH Fidel and Raul to be out of power before it can be lifted. So Fidel dying is of no consequence whatsoever.

As for the Cubanos one of my aunts is one who fled the revolution. She was a firebrand for a while but gave up. The second and third generation exiles I’ve met are moving into that ‘history is nice but we’re Americans’ stage of assimilation. The only hardcores I’ve spoken with now are well up there in years. Their children and grandchildren (for the most part) don’t give a damn.

The exiles are never getting their land back and their influence on Florida politics is dropping by the year. Even as a part of the latino vote they’re losing ground to Puerto Ricans and others from around the gulf.

I’ve never met any of “the worms”(to use Castro’s term), though I know a few second and third generation Cuban Americans, all but one of whom could not care less about the situation in Cuba. I was merely asking Der Trihs experience was since he’d made some extremely strong charges.

I’ve seen lots of people who know nothing of the Middle East making rather foolish pronouncements about it, or make comments about “the ghetto” or about “Hispanics” without knowing anything about them so I thought I’d ask him to back up his statements with evidence.

I’d have done the same if he’d started making pronouncements about how “lazy” “violent”, and “irresponsible” black people are.

Anyway, judging by the second and third generation Cuban Americans I’ve met, I think he greatly overestimates what the Cuban American exile community thinks. CANF isn’t nearly as powerful as they once were, though they’re probably still a bit more influential than AIPAC.

That’s a ridiculous comparison. How do the two groups compare? “Cuban emigres who fled Castro” isn’t at all the same kind of grouping as “black people”.

A good friend of mine travels to Cuba 6-8 times a year on business. He once told that every Cubans goal is to get off the island. I asked a Cuban if that was true. He said they only want to leave the island because they can’t. In other words, if they could leave it then it wouldn’t be a priority. I think the Cuban is correct. All the Cubans I have known are very proud of their island and culture.
Thanks to Castro, every Cuban can read. It is unfortunate that they can only read approved party content (no internet). Every Cuban has access to the finest doctors in the world. And of course there is no fee. These are two huge accomplishments. In the future, I hope to see big changes on the island. And they will come. Unfortunately it won’t be rapid.

I sort of agree with Der Trihs on the issue of the Cuban community in Miami. It was founded and led by supporters of the Batista regime and they had no more interest in turning Cuba into a democracy than the Castro regime did. They just wanted to replace a left-wing dictator with a right-wing dictator.

Der Trihs also said that change won’t happen until the Cuban exiles die off. But I think for the most part, they’re already reaching the point of change if it hasn’t happened already. The people who were the strongest supporters of Batista were contemporaries of the Castros and they fled fifty years ago. These people may have been the leaders of the community for several decades but they’re dying off just as the Castros are. The current leadership of the Cuban community are their children - they may have been raised in a pro-Batista community but they also grew up in the United States. I suspect their political views are a lot different from their parents’. There was also the influx of the boatlifts back around 1980. The Cubans who came to America then may have been anti-Castro but it’s doubtful many of them were pro-Batista. The current view of the Cuban community in America is probably looking more towards replacing a left-wing dictator with a democratic government.

OK, so you don’t really know much about the situation. Got it.

The remark about “brown people” was particularly absurd, since as has been pointed out the wealthy upper class in Cuba who make up most of the emigre community are whiter than the rest of the population (as the upper class tends to be in much of Latin America.)

I never claimed I did and the “brown skinned people” comment was meant to be hyperbole.

Beyond that while yes, most Cuban-Americans are of 100% or nearly 100% European descent who is and isn’t “white” vs. “brown” is highly subjective. Jose Canseco and Rick Sanchez have both insisted they’re not white and insisted that they’ve always been treated as non-whites and the percentage of Florida Hispanics who identify as such on the US census bureau has dramatically declined.

Similarly, had I referred to Palestinians as “brown-skinned people” I doubt anyone would have batted an eyelash, but in terms of skintone they’re no darker than most Cuban-Americans.

Dude, stop digging. My dad used to party in Havana all the time in Batista’s heyday – and guess who he partied with? That’s right, the white, rich elite & most of them of direct Spanish descent whom he’d met through doing business (and even found family ties*) from the Dominican Republic – you may remember Cuba was a Spanish colony? That ought to clue you in. And those made-up about 95% of the first run of immigrants when Batista fell. They also had much of their money well-tucked away in American banks, so it’s not like most of them had to start from scratch in Florida.

*In fact, met and married my Mom there, granddaughter of a wealthy Asturian landowner, who could afford the luxury to travel back to Spain so his heirs would be born in Spain proper. Turns out the families were related

It makes no sense even as hyperbole. It was a foolish remark no matter how you attempt to justify it.

Why even refer to Cubans as “brown-skinned people”? Der Trihs’s said nothing in his post that was related to the racial makeup of Cubans. You gratuitously implied, for no reason at all, that he was making racist assumptions.

I’m still trying to deal with the original concept (If Fidel passes . . .). Is Fidel to be treated like Pontifex Tyeveras, propped up on a throne inside a bubble while machines pump mysterious fluids through him?

As for the aftermath, I doubt that much significant will happen till Raul goes too. My impression — admittedly fairly superficial — is that while Raul is anything but a liberator, he at least understands that the economy is a bad joke and needs a drastic overhaul. He may try to speed up economic (but not political) reform; however, he won’t have much time, and what he does have will be haunted by his brother’s ghost. And as others have pointed out, at this point there doesn’t seem to be any strong successor in the wings. Whatever ensues, it most likely won’t be pretty.

It’s just an unfortunate fact of life in Cuba that they can’t get access to good doctors and effective antibiotics and clean bandages and clean water at the same time. The Cuban medical system is otherwise perfect. And Free! I’d really love to live under that system… Fortunately, I don’t. Unfortunately (for them), they do.

Because I was responding to Der Trihs, not to someone else.

Der Trihs has regularly, on multiple occasions referred to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq as well as the ongoing hostilities between Iran, other Arabs and the US as being wars against “Brown people”.

Now, are Iranians, Arabs, or Afghans more “brown” than Cuban Americans?

http://dantri.vcmedia.vn/Uploaded/2009/08/03/tinvan308092.jpg

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/38970000/jpg/_38970533_203b_qusay97_ap.jpg

http://images.allmoviephoto.com/2005_Paradise_Now/2005_paradise_now_010.jpg

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http://cdn4.wn.com/ph/img/81/1d/e05fd36a717fbd6ba9e965be32ed-grande.jpg

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3352/4642538520_64993cae11.jpg

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http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-cMZ4E0I-3iM/Tohe99GtA_I/AAAAAAAABJU/d1xbpnnkny0/s400/Mahmud+Jan+Afghan+model+%25283%2529.jpg

He has in fact continued to repeat this when pointed out what the skin tone Arabs(excluding North Africans), Iranians, and Afghans looks like.

His view seems to be that Americans consider them “brown” so that’s what he’ll call them.

Well, generally speaking, Americans consider Hispanics to be “brown” or at least “non-white” regardless of their skin tone or even what they themselves might think.

To give one example, not that long ago on the dope, I got into a long, long argument over the actress Eva Longoria. I objected to some people automatically classifying her as “non-white”. Pointing out that she came from a high-class Mexican American family that had lived in Texas long before it was part of the US and people from that background tended to identify themselves as “white”.

Everyone else on the thread vehemently disagreed, insisting that she was “obviously not white”, that “she doesn’t look white, she looks Mexican” and other assorted comments.

Similarly, if you look through the George Zimmerman threads you’ll notice many people mocking the idea that Zimmerman was “a white hispanic”.

And, of course, if you look through the US media you’ll notice Latinas who would most certainly be classified as “blancas” in Latin America, being classified as “women of color” such as America Ferrara, Sofia Vegara, Salma Hayek, and Penelope Cruz(who’s not even from Latin America)".

I was engaging in a certain amount of hyperbole and because based on Der Trihs seeming world view, I assumed he viewed Hispanic Americans, including Cuban Americans as “brown” because that would be completely consistent with his prior statements.

In fact, you’ll notice he doesn’t actually deny that he thought of them as “brown-skinned” merely that he wasn’t referring to all “brown” people.

His statement is similar to someone who’s made nasty comments about Israelis being accused of being anti-Semitic and then saying, “I said nothing about Jews, I was referring to Israelis.”

Moreover, is classifying Cuban-Americans as “brown-skinned” foolish IMHO?

Yes, just as I think the people who automatically insisted that Eva Longoria, Sofia Vegara, George Zimmerman and America Ferrara aren’t “white” are being foolish, but it’s hardly any more foolish that classifying the people in the pictures I linked to as “brown” which is what Der and plenty of others have done.

In fact, I’m not sure how often I’ve seen anyone other than myself challenge Der’s classifying the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan as a “war against brown people” the way you and Red challenged my terming Cuban-Americans as “brown-skinned”.

We live in a society in which Arabs, Iranians, Afghans and Latinos are assumed to be “brown”.

Obviously, to people familiar with Latin American society, that’s silly, but it should be noted that increasingly even many Hispanics in the US buy that.

For example, I met numerous Cuban-Americans and Puerto Ricans in college who repeatedly insisted they were “people of color” and would have been insulted by being called white even though they were the grandchildren of people who would have been insulted by being told that they WEREN’T white.

FTR, my own personal view is I’ll let people decide for themselves. If Rick Sanchez and Jose Canseco(two prominent Cuban Americans who would have been considered Blancos in Havana circa 1955) insist that they’re not white(which both do) and refer to themselves as brown(which Sanchez has) then I’ll accept them at their word, particularly growing up in a society where Anglos made it clear to them they weren’t considered white.

After all, who’s skin is considered “white” and who’s is considered “not white” often has little to do with their actual skin tone.

I’ve never been considered white by anyone I knew because I’d never be mistaken for a n Anglo-Saxon, my first name is Ali, and I’m Iranian. However, if I claimed I was Tony Moretti, I’d be considered white, while if I said my name was Miguel Montoya, I definitely would not be.

To make things more complicated, since I’m living in Rhode Island, if I said my name was Jose Rodriguez and I was Puerto Rican I would definitely not be considered white, but if I said my name was Jorge Garcia and I was Portuguese, I definitely would be.

Anyway, back to the OP and I apologize to all for the inadvertent hijack.

I agree that until Raul passes there probably won’t be too many changes, but how long can Raul last either. Raul is almost as old as his brother(81 to 86) so how much longer can last as well.

Do either of them have children positioned to take over the way Hafez Assad groomed Bashir, Saddam was grooming his sons or Mubarak groomed his son(who’s name escapes me)?

The next is line appears to be Jose Machado, who is First Vice President and Second Secretary of the Communist Party (the positions which Raul Castro held). Machado is the former Minister of Health (he is a physician) who set up the Cuban medical system, which is generally regarded as a success. Machado is not related to the Castros so it doesn’t appear that Cuba is looking at dynastic rule.

But that really doesn’t resolve the succession issue. Machado is also 81 which means even if he’s becomes President he won’t be a long-term one. Cuba could end up being like the Soviet Union was in the early eighties, going through a succession of leaders in quick order before turning over power to the next generation.

Ah; so I wasn’t being paranoid when I suspected it was just a reflexive “Let’s bash Der Trihs” post.

You wrote all that “inadvertently”?:dubious:

I did not think my initial post would provoke such a response and had I known it would, I wouldn’t have posted it.

What I said was, I wouldn’t have used the “brown-skinned” comment had it not been from someone who has repeatedly referred to Iraqis, Arabs in general, Afghans, and Iranians as “brown”.

Now, if I misremember and you’ve not regularly referred to the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan as well as the GWOT as examples of “wars against brown people” or proof of how much “America hates brown people” or words to that effect, I apologize.

Anyway, since you considered all the below people “brown”, I assumed you felt the same about Cuban-Americans and Hispanics in general. If I’m wrong, sorry, but please explain your logic, because I don’t see it.

Thanks.

Missed this; first time I’ve seen a Majipoor reference in ages. I like the image.

I thought you said you weren’t going to keep on hijacking this thread.