# If Greece votes no to EU bailout what will happen? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 1, 2011, 10:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-greece-votes-no-to-eu-bailout-what-will-happen/601473 "2011-11-01T10:35:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Oliveritaly](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oliveritaly/32/15233_2.png) [@Oliveritaly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oliveritaly)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2011, 10:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-greece-votes-no-to-eu-bailout-what-will-happen/601473/1 "2011-11-01T10:35:31Z")
Reading here among other people: [http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1101/breaking5.html?via=mr](http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1101/breaking5.html?via=mr) It seems as if the people of Greece might vote no on the EU bailout package. If this happens, a number of news articles predict that Greece will be forced to declare bankruptcy and/or be excluded from the euro (just the currency or the union, I’m unclear). What does this mean for Greece in the short term; say the next 1 to 3 years. Should I start making vacation plans there in early Feb of 2012 or is it safer to avoid the country until things settle down. Finally any Greek readers want to chime in with their opinion? Seems like a lot of the other EU members, namely Germany, have made considerable efforts at supporting the economy there, I can understand the disdain for the changes in pay/retirement services/etc but surely something has to give, no? ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2011, 12:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-greece-votes-no-to-eu-bailout-what-will-happen/601473/2 "2011-11-01T12:21:38Z")
Bad things, and then good things, and then maybe bad things again, and then a mixture of the two. Honestly? no-one really knows. They have already defaulted on their loans to all practical purposes and a vote against the bailout and all it entails will merely make the default a bit worse and rather more obvious. The markets euphoria on the “deal” had already started to cool before news of the impending referendum so it hadn’t fooled people for very long. So all bets are off. Anyone who tells you they know for sure what will happen is either misguided (if they turn out to be wrong) or lucky (if they turn out to be right). Such has been the case right from the start of the current financial crisis. There is a reason that economics degrees are awarded as a BA rather than a BSc. ---
**Author:** ![md2000](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/73ab20/32.png) [@md2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md2000)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2011, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-greece-votes-no-to-eu-bailout-what-will-happen/601473/3 "2011-11-01T13:00:07Z")
The question is, does Europe bail out Greece or the banks that loaned it too much money? Much of the bail-out is motivated by a desire by countries like France and Germany to save their over-exposed banks. If Greece appears unwilling to help them, then they will reply with the obligatory “scheissen-ze” and use the fund to save ethier banks instead. Greece would then have a few choices; what happens to you if you have no money in the bank and can’t borrow any? They can make up thier own money (get out of the Euro, something you can’t do). It will start out equal to the Euro and about 5 minutes later will be worth 50 to the Euro, instant wage cut for everyone involved, but nayone that has to buy things like gas from outside the country is screwed. Or they can simply tell everyone “no paycheques this quarter”. (Except maybe the police and politicians). No bills get paid until taxes are (properly) collected, something they haven’t done well until now. Of course, nobody’s getting paid, how are they going to pay taxes? Or, they can wait until the lesson has sunk in with scenario A or B above and ask “Wanna reconsider?” ---
**Author:** ![Omar\_Little](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omar_little/32/269_2.png) [@Omar\_Little](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omar_Little)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2011, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-greece-votes-no-to-eu-bailout-what-will-happen/601473/4 "2011-11-01T14:01:27Z")
The Greek people and the OWS crowd are very similar. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2011, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-greece-votes-no-to-eu-bailout-what-will-happen/601473/5 "2011-11-01T14:12:24Z")
> [@Omar\_Little](#): > > The Greek people and the OWS crowd are very similar. That may or may not be factually correct. Can you flesh out your hypothesis? ---
**Author:** ![smiling\_bandit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9a140/32.png) [@smiling\_bandit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smiling_bandit)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2011, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-greece-votes-no-to-eu-bailout-what-will-happen/601473/6 "2011-11-01T14:42:44Z")
> [@md2000](#): > > The question is, does Europe bail out Greece or the banks that loaned it too much money? Much of the bail-out is motivated by a desire by countries like France and Germany to save their over-exposed banks. If Greece appears unwilling to help them, then they will reply with the obligatory “scheissen-ze” and use the fund to save ethier banks instead. The most recent bailout looks as though nits targeted at Greece, but is really targeted at banks, especially French ones which have big exposure to Greek debt. They’ve been given some undisclosed concessions in exchange for their generosity in letting Greece cut a big chunk of debt. However, even with all of that, Greece is still only down to 120% debt - the same ratio which started the problem in the first place. Plus, Greece hasn’t taken any of the steps promised previously and may not even be able to do so, while many Greeks are utterly pissed about having “monitors” on hand to tell them what to do. Short version: it’s a mess, and it probably isn’t going to end well. ---
**Author:** ![Oliveritaly](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oliveritaly/32/15233_2.png) [@Oliveritaly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oliveritaly)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2011, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-greece-votes-no-to-eu-bailout-what-will-happen/601473/7 "2011-11-01T15:38:57Z")
> [@Omar\_Little](#): > > The Greek people and the OWS crowd are very similar. I agree with John Mace. Can you give a bit more info Omar? I’d like to hear your thoughts on the matter. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2011, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-greece-votes-no-to-eu-bailout-what-will-happen/601473/8 "2011-11-01T16:35:35Z")
OWS? ---
**Author:** ![Phlint](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c89c15/32.png) [@Phlint](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlint)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2011, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-greece-votes-no-to-eu-bailout-what-will-happen/601473/9 "2011-11-01T16:44:49Z")
Occupy Wall Street ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2011, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-greece-votes-no-to-eu-bailout-what-will-happen/601473/10 "2011-11-01T16:46:50Z")
> [@Omar\_Little](#): > > The Greek people and the OWS crowd are very similar. They gave us democracy? ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2011, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-greece-votes-no-to-eu-bailout-what-will-happen/601473/11 "2011-11-01T16:55:22Z")
Occupy Wall Street. I can’t say that I agree. The OWS people really don’t have any sort of coherent message at all, except that they’re generally unhappy with the status quo. The Greeks are, frankly, simply unwilling to live within their means or to pay their fair share of taxes. ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2011, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-greece-votes-no-to-eu-bailout-what-will-happen/601473/12 "2011-11-01T16:57:19Z")
MOved from General Questions to Great Debates. **samclem** , Moderator ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2011, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-greece-votes-no-to-eu-bailout-what-will-happen/601473/13 "2011-11-01T17:00:15Z")
I’m betting there won’t be a referendum, and the current Greek government falls before Friday. The current administration’s majority in parliament was cut to just two seats today due to defections. What’s more interesting than the effect on Greece, should they withdraw from the Euro or default, is the effect on the likes of Italy. Would this put the Italians under even more pressure than they’re already feeling? Italian bond prices are starting to [rocket](http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBTPGR10:IND) again. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2011, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-greece-votes-no-to-eu-bailout-what-will-happen/601473/14 "2011-11-01T17:12:46Z")
Can we keep the discussion to Greece and leave the OWS comparisons/threadjacks out of this thread? kthxbye. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2011, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-greece-votes-no-to-eu-bailout-what-will-happen/601473/15 "2011-11-01T17:14:49Z")
Honestly, I fear another 2008 based on Papandreou’s inability to make the tough, perhaps career-ending, decision. I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see the Greek citizens voting for this plan, meaning that our 6-day wave of optimism is pretty much over. ---
**Author:** ![Oliveritaly](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oliveritaly/32/15233_2.png) [@Oliveritaly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oliveritaly)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2011, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-greece-votes-no-to-eu-bailout-what-will-happen/601473/16 "2011-11-01T17:25:14Z")
Good point John … I tried to derail my own thread! I see the Greek PM is having a hell of a time … Interesting times. ---
**Author:** ![nudgenudge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/9f8e36/32.png) [@nudgenudge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nudgenudge)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2011, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-greece-votes-no-to-eu-bailout-what-will-happen/601473/17 "2011-11-01T17:30:45Z")
> [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > I’m betting there won’t be a referendum, and the current Greek government falls before Friday. The current administration’s majority in parliament was cut to just two seats today due to defections. Greek government looking shaky, it’s true, but maybe then it just become an election instead of a referendum, with the principal question at stake being much the same. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2011, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-greece-votes-no-to-eu-bailout-what-will-happen/601473/18 "2011-11-01T17:52:40Z")
> [@nudgenudge](#): > > Greek government looking shaky, it’s true, but maybe then it just become an election instead of a referendum, with the principal question at stake being much the same. Yes, but with a far longer time to reach a conclusion and a continued bumpy ride for everyone as the issue remains unsettled. I also think the referendum won’t happen. I suspect it was merely a way for the PM to defer his responsibility for making less worst choice. i.e. he goes with mood of the public and so can’t be vilified if (when) it goes wrong. Now it looks like he won’t get chance to do that. Perhaps a stronger character will step into his shoes but who on earth is going to want that job? ---
**Author:** ![Sitnam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Sitnam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sitnam)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2011, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-greece-votes-no-to-eu-bailout-what-will-happen/601473/19 "2011-11-01T20:12:03Z")
I’m really having a hard time figuring out what the Greek people think is going to be the endgame here. The Socialist Party putting it to a referendum is spineless, but if the majority hate this plan and are planning on The Justice League intervening I guess I don’t blame them for not wanting this dog on their leash. Besides general outrage at their own government’s fiscal irresponsibility why do they feel they’re in the right here? ---
**Author:** ![Capitaine\_Zombie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e95f7d/32.png) [@Capitaine\_Zombie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capitaine_Zombie)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2011, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-greece-votes-no-to-eu-bailout-what-will-happen/601473/20 "2011-11-01T20:17:58Z")
> [@Sitnam](#): > > I’m really having a hard time figuring out what the Greek people think is going to be the endgame here. The Socialist Party putting it to a referendum is spineless, but if the majority hate this plan and are planning on The Justice League intervening I guess I don’t blame them for not wanting this dog on their leash. > > Besides general outrage at their own government’s fiscal irresponsibility why do they feel they’re in the right here? Because that means to them an entire generation condemned to severe austerity measures. Besides I dont really understand the outrage over the referendum. Seems rather democratic to me that if you’re gonna be forcing your own pop to bread and water for decades, the people should have the final word on that. With all possible consequences in mind. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-greece-votes-no-to-eu-bailout-what-will-happen/601473.md?page=2)