If Jane sends Dick a nude pic, who else besides Dick has seen that pic?

[TroutMan]

@jtur88

The point of my reply was that you need to estimate two values to determine the “odds”. One value (x) is the number of such pictures sent, and the other (y) is the number of them that are actually consciously viewed by a human third party. In other words, x/y. X is an astronomically large number, and Y is insignificantly small, so the chances are very very close to zero, no mater what realistic values you give to x and y.

Looking at the problems with this approach:

1. Arithmetic doesn’t work that way. Your definition of how this equation relates to odds is confusing to start, but you seem to suggest that this equation gives you a “1 in X/Y” chance of it happening. But if this is the case, then larger values of X should result in better odds, not worse odds like they do in your equation. And if this interpretation of your equation is incorrect, then please explain what you mean by “10 million.”

2. Even if the equation is correct, you can’t plug in random numbers and pretend they are meaningful.

3. Looking at an emailed picture is not a random occurrence that can be predicted by number of images versus number of people looking. There are actually factual answers about who looks at emails and under what circumstances. Those kinds of answers are useful and interesting. Incorrect equations with made-up numbers are neither.

As has been said elsewhere, if you are shown to be wrong, doubling down on the answer doesn’t do you any favors.