# If Obama is Re-elected, who will be the Democratic nominee in 2016? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 5, 2012, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-is-re-elected-who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-in-2016/639997 "2012-11-05T20:02:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-is-re-elected-who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-in-2016/639997/1 "2012-11-05T20:02:26Z")
What’s your wild ass guess? I’m going to say it won’t be Joe Biden, nor do I believe it will be Hillary Clinton, who in 2016 will be 69 years old and, having seen Obama age ten years in four, might not think the job sounds as great as she once thought. So who’ll it be? Or am I wrong about Biden or Clinton? ---
**Author:** ![etv78](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d78d45/32.png) [@etv78](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/etv78)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-is-re-elected-who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-in-2016/639997/2 "2012-11-05T20:05:51Z")
Biden was recently asked about '16, didn’t rule out running. (to my surprise) ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-is-re-elected-who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-in-2016/639997/3 "2012-11-05T20:09:00Z")
It’ll be some Dem governor like Cuomo. And in 2020 or 2024 it’ll be Gavin Newsom. You heard that here first! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-is-re-elected-who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-in-2016/639997/4 "2012-11-05T20:12:05Z")
Hillary. ---
**Author:** ![tomcar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7993a0/32.png) [@tomcar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomcar)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-is-re-elected-who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-in-2016/639997/5 "2012-11-05T20:15:39Z")
Hillary ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-is-re-elected-who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-in-2016/639997/6 "2012-11-05T20:15:42Z")
Biden? No way. But I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Clinton run. Other than that, though, I expect to see a slew of Democratic governors in the running, including, most likely: -Jerry Brown (he’s run before, showing he’s got the desire, and he seems to be pretty respected in CA now, meaning he’s got the chops) -Andrew Cuomo -Deval Patrick (no reason except that governors from MA just love to run for president). I also expect to see some folks from House and Senate, maybe including: -Dick Durbin (again with the Illinois Senator thing, also part of the leadership) And finally: Julian Castro. He’d be super-young this cycle, only 42 (good lord, the man is a few weeks younger than me!), but he might try for it anyway, if not this cycle then in the next few. ---
**Author:** ![Sicks\_Ate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/258eb7/32.png) [@Sicks\_Ate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sicks_Ate)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-is-re-elected-who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-in-2016/639997/7 "2012-11-05T20:16:41Z")
> [@etv78](#): > > Biden was recently asked about '16, didn’t rule out running. (to my surprise) But there’s now way he’d ever make it as far as being the nominee, is there? ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-is-re-elected-who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-in-2016/639997/8 "2012-11-05T20:19:12Z")
For some reason my governor (Jay Nixon) has got a little local buzz amongst the Democrats I’ve spoken to. Not sure that he has the chops for that sort of thing, but as a red-state Governor he’d at least get a look (more so if Obama loses, IMO). ETA: Of course there is the small issue of his last name… ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-is-re-elected-who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-in-2016/639997/9 "2012-11-05T20:22:19Z")
Not Hillary. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-is-re-elected-who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-in-2016/639997/10 "2012-11-05T20:22:48Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > -Jerry Brown (he’s run before, showing he’s got the desire, and he seems to be pretty respected in CA now, meaning he’s got the chops) He’ll be almost 80. I like your other picks and I’d add Corey Booker, although if all goes well for him he may be early in a term as governor of NJ. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-is-re-elected-who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-in-2016/639997/11 "2012-11-05T20:23:46Z")
Hillary. Love to her pick Julian Castro as veep. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-is-re-elected-who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-in-2016/639997/12 "2012-11-05T20:25:57Z")
I think it depends on how Obama’s second term ends. If things are up and humming like a well-oiled machine, both economically and foreign policy-wise and no scandals, I could see Hillary. If things are less-than-stellar, I don’t see Hillary or Biden putting themselves through a tough campaign again (having been a part of Obama’s administration and having that get tossed back in their faces on the campaign trail), while facing the very real possibility of losing. I could actually see a Clinton-[Castro](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Castro) ticket if the next four years go well for the country. If, however, things are sluggish or some “2015 surprise” rocks us, I could see someone like Andrew Cuomo or Tim Kaine. Bland, centrist, palatable against presumably the Republican’s far-right nominee. (I think the Republican powers-that-be will want a person of color as their nominee, but I suspect it’ll be someone like Santorum or Ryan who gets the nod). ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-is-re-elected-who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-in-2016/639997/13 "2012-11-05T20:26:51Z")
Castro/Nixon. That would be awesome!! I’ll bet Hillary doesn’t run. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-is-re-elected-who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-in-2016/639997/14 "2012-11-05T20:28:35Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > He’ll be almost 80. I like your other picks and I’d add Corey Booker, although if all goes well for him he may be early in a term as governor of NJ. Halfway through looking over lists of governors and such, it occurred to me to start looking at age. But I was too lazy to go back and look at ages for folks I’d already typed about, and then I was too lazy to mention that, too. So thanks for the catch! ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-is-re-elected-who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-in-2016/639997/15 "2012-11-05T20:35:16Z")
> [@Sicks\_Ate](#): > > But there’s now way he’d ever make it as far as being the nominee, is there? The sitting VP has a pretty strong hand. I think Alben Barkley (Truman’s VP) was the most recent sitting VP to try for his party’s nomination and be denied. Especially if the second term goes well\*, Biden could ride that momentum to the nomination. - assuming Obama wins ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-is-re-elected-who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-in-2016/639997/16 "2012-11-05T20:36:03Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Castro/Nixon. That would be awesome!! > > I’ll bet Hillary doesn’t run. Damn, that would be great name combo, and I generally like the ticket, too. In reality, I can’t see someone jumping from mayor of San Antonio to the Presidency in four years. I only have predictions on who it won’t be. It won’t be Clinton or Biden. I figured Obama was going to be the nominee from the 2004 convention on, but the pool is too wide and even for me to see anyone that I think is a likely candidate as a favorite. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-is-re-elected-who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-in-2016/639997/17 "2012-11-05T20:37:15Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > It’ll be some Dem governor like Cuomo. > > And in 2020 or 2024 it’ll be Gavin Newsom. You heard that here first! 🙂 Not a chance - he’ll be governor of California first. Besides, you have to take into account the fact that people who would otherwise drink the Democratic party Kool-Aid would hesitate to vote for someone who, almost certainly, would do everything in his power to “legalize” gay marriage pretty much immediately after he took the oath of office. I think Hillary will get the nomination if she wants it. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-is-re-elected-who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-in-2016/639997/18 "2012-11-05T20:41:45Z")
> [@Tom\_Scud](#): > > The sitting VP has a pretty strong hand. I think Alben Barkley (Truman’s VP) was the most recent sitting VP to try for his party’s nomination and be denied. Especially if the second term goes well\*, Biden could ride that momentum to the nomination. > > - assuming Obama wins He’d be older then McCain was in '08. And he seems to spend most of his time advising the Prez and negotiating with the Senate. If he were looking to be Prez, I think he’d insist on being the “front-man” for some of the WH’s initiatives. ---
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-is-re-elected-who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-in-2016/639997/19 "2012-11-05T20:43:42Z")
My long shots are Chris Christie or Michael Bloomberg. I know they’re not democrats now, but 4 years is a long time. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-is-re-elected-who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-in-2016/639997/20 "2012-11-05T20:46:31Z")
Someone none of us have heard of. Or, if he wins his senate race and makes a name for himself in that body, Tim Kaine. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-is-re-elected-who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-in-2016/639997.md?page=2)