# If Obama wins, how can/could/will it happen? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 6, 2012, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468 "2012-07-06T21:52:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2012, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/41 "2012-07-09T12:59:31Z")
How many off shore bank accounts does Mitt have? More than most of us. This is resonating with voters. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2012, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/42 "2012-07-09T13:00:33Z")
> [@2ManyTacos](#): > > Voter suppression aside, how much do you guys think that the health care SCOTUS ruling, and the impending full implementation of the law, will effect the November outcome? Minimally. I imagine it will boost turnout slightly on both sides, but I don’t think repealing it is a viable campaign issue now that SCOTUS has spoken. ---
**Author:** ![Lightnin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lightnin/32/180_2.png) [@Lightnin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lightnin)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2012, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/43 "2012-07-09T13:51:41Z")
> [@2ManyTacos](#): > > Mittbot is certainly going to at least partially play up the message that “I’m your last hope for stopping Obamacare;” the issue, then, is whether voters care enough about the ACA to base their ballot decisions on the law. And using that tactic is going to be an uphill battle, given how similar ObabaCare is to the plan Romney introduced in Massachusetts. ---
**Author:** ![gamerunknown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/6bbea6/32.png) [@gamerunknown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gamerunknown)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2012, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/44 "2012-07-09T14:14:28Z")
> [@Ca3799](#): > > university students and faculty Come and see the violence inherent in the system. Seriously, they should let him have at least half the debates in a boardroom with an interactive whiteboard. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2012, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/45 "2012-07-09T14:21:13Z")
> [@Lightnin](#): > > And using that tactic is going to be an uphill battle, given how similar ObabaCare is to the plan Romney introduced in Massachusetts. Yeah, I don’t think voters will care much about the nuance between thinking something is a good policy at the state level versus the federal level. Most of his anti-ACA arguments vanish in that light. “It should be a state matter” isn’t exactly a philosophical death blow to the ACA. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2012, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/46 "2012-07-09T17:01:59Z")
I like what Mark Shields said this weekend on one of the talk shows (and I paraphrase): _I look at the economy and think: No way can Obama win. Then I look at Mitt Romney and think: No way can Obama lose._ ---
**Author:** ![Enderw24](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/ba9def/32.png) [@Enderw24](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enderw24)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2012, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/47 "2012-07-09T18:02:17Z")
I’m neither a political scientist or a Constitutional scholar, but I imagine it’ll happen because Obama receives a greater number of electoral votes than Romney. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2012, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/48 "2012-07-09T20:40:41Z")
> [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](#): > > How many off shore bank accounts does Mitt have? More than most of us. This is resonating with voters. I think this is going to be the talking point that really does sway the undecideds to vote against Romney. Robert Gibbs (biased, obviously) had a good line on one of the Sunday news shows yesterday.: “I pick a bank because there’s an ATM near my home, Romney had a bank account in Switzerland.” It’s a simple line of attack that carries a big punch. ---
**Author:** ![jebert](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ec9cab/32.png) [@jebert](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jebert)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2012, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/49 "2012-07-09T22:13:59Z")
I’m surprised no one has mentioned campaign contributions. Romney collected $106M in June while Obama got $71M, his best month ever. Romney got more than Obama in May as well. While Obama’s money comes from lots of small contributions, where Romney gets big money from a few, that extra cash gives Romney a chance to keep pounding Obama in the swing states. That has to make some difference. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2012, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/50 "2012-07-09T22:18:41Z")
Obama out-fundraised Romney throughout the primary season, and spent much less than Romney. He is currently spending more than Romney in swing states, and improving in the polls as a result. ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2012, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/51 "2012-07-09T22:26:42Z")
Like I’ve been saying, the thing that’s going to be the deciding factor in November - even more than the economy - will be voter suppression and the degree to which that’s successful. The fact that Romney has raised more than Obama over the past couple of months is just background noise, really, considering that the president has been generally able to outraise Romney up until recently and that, at the end of the day, even if Obama is outspent overall it’ll only amount to an incredibly marginal (if it does anything at all) difference in the election. Romney **and** Obama are both going to be throwing an ungodly amount of money into this campaign, so whoever spends more on advertising will be irrelevent considering that the opposite side will spend virtually identical amounts in the eyes of the electorate. ---
**Author:** ![jebert](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ec9cab/32.png) [@jebert](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jebert)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2012, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/52 "2012-07-10T01:56:12Z")
Perhaps Romney just got a big bump from the anti-ACA crowd in June. However, if Romney continues to raise significantly more than Obama in the coming months, he could just as easily start to spend more than Obama in swing states and turn the polls to his favor. ---
**Author:** ![Darth\_Panda](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ee7513/32.png) [@Darth\_Panda](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darth_Panda)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2012, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/53 "2012-07-10T02:08:00Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Romney is near the Dukakis end of the charisma spectrum I’d just like to say\* ouch\* on behalf of Romney. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2012, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/54 "2012-07-10T03:55:27Z")
I’d like to add something. Romney is running, like Kerry, on being not-the-incumbent. Now, there are people who don’t like Obama for reasons beyond his position. Like the color of his skin, or the religion someone told them he has. That’s an advantage Kerry didn’t have against Bush. But those people didn’t vote for Obama the last time, it’s not a really sizable advantage. In order to unseat an opponent, you really have to do more than be not-the-guy. You have to be something on your own. Romney… he can’t do that. He can change his mind to match the whim of the electorate, he can be for or against anything that the electorate desires, but he’s never shown the ability to lead, to take a stand. I’m not saying he can’t win. It’s possible. But that, right there, is why he probably won’t. He won’t inspire people. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2012, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/55 "2012-07-10T17:57:51Z")
Which one would you rather have a beer with? Forget that. It’s a loaded question. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![ultrafilter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/3d9bf3/32.png) [@ultrafilter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultrafilter)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2012, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/56 "2012-07-10T18:02:46Z")
It’s also worth noting that the Obama campaign made a big push a few months back to hire statisticians and other data-oriented types (see [this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=617517) for limited discussion and some links). Given the amount of data out there and the importance of the questions it could answer, I think this is going to be a pretty big advantage for them. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2012, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/57 "2012-07-10T18:12:20Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Which one would you rather have a beer with? > > Forget that. It’s a loaded question. 😃 How about a cup of coffee? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2012, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/58 "2012-07-10T18:19:15Z")
> [@Tom\_Scud](#): > > How about a cup of coffee? You’re not helping. 🙂 Hey, one thing I’ll say about my former religion, Catholicism-- they know how to drink! ---
**Author:** ![Lightnin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lightnin/32/180_2.png) [@Lightnin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lightnin)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2012, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/59 "2012-07-10T19:14:50Z")
> [@Enderw24](#): > > I’m neither a political scientist or a Constitutional scholar, but I imagine it’ll happen because Obama receives a greater number of electoral votes than Romney. That plan’s so crazy it just… might… work! ---
**Author:** ![dvd418](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecd19e/32.png) [@dvd418](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dvd418)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2012, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/60 "2012-07-10T23:50:19Z")
Dave Wiegel in Slate wrote a few days ago that the libertarian Gary Johnson could have a real impact here. The less people watch TV and turn to other sources for campaign coverage the less power the two main parties will have. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468.md?page=4)