# If Obama wins, how can/could/will it happen? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 6, 2012, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468 "2012-07-06T21:52:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2012, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/121 "2012-10-03T02:47:26Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > Nate Thayer has upped Obama’s chances of winning to 85.7%. Just gets better by the day. > [@kaylasdad99](#): > > 😕 > > Who’s Nate Thayer? > [@Rhythmdvl](#): > > I think he meant [Nate Thilver](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/), you thilly boy. Yes, thanks. I did mean Nate Silver. I am forever conflating him with [Nate Thayer](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Thayer), the American journalist who interviewed Pol Pot in 1997. Also, I’ll mention it again: CNN is pissing me off, declaring Obama’s convention bounce over and the election a complete dead heat and Romney could even be pulling out front a little. But then I go to Nate Silver – Thayer? No, Silver, got it – and feel much better. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2012, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/122 "2012-10-03T12:47:43Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > CNN is pissing me off, declaring Obama’s convention bounce over and the election a complete dead heat and Romney could even be pulling out front a little. Did they say Romney could be ahead? Latest I saw, they said it was in a statistical dead heat – but only because their internal polling showed Obama 3 points ahead. Once you look at other polls that show Obama ahead by even more, or even aggregate the CNN poll with other polls that also show a 3 point lead, that statistical tie will disappear. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2012, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/123 "2012-10-03T13:17:43Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > Also, I’ll mention it again: CNN is pissing me off, declaring Obama’s convention bounce over and the election a complete dead heat and Romney could even be pulling out front a little. But then I go to Nate Silver – Thayer? No, Silver, got it – and feel much better. As much as some folks hoot about “liberal bias” and all that, the real goal of CNN and the rest is to collect eyeballs. And you don’t collect eyeballs by saying “Pfftt… race is over, go home and wait six weeks, folks”. No matter how the race is going, there’ll be breathless media reports of a “horse race” and “close fight” up until election day. Obviously, it can actually be a close race. My point is that one guy could be ahead by 10 points and the stories will be about how the other guy is closing the gap or mounting a last minute rally. ---
**Author:** ![DMark](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@DMark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMark)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2012, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/124 "2012-10-03T15:33:27Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > As much as some folks hoot about “liberal bias” and all that, the real goal of CNN and the rest is to collect eyeballs. And you don’t collect eyeballs by saying “Pfftt… race is over, go home and wait six weeks, folks”. No matter how the race is going, there’ll be breathless media reports of a “horse race” and “close fight” up until election day. > > Obviously, it can actually be a close race. My point is that one guy could be ahead by 10 points and the stories will be about how the other guy is closing the gap or mounting a last minute rally. Actually, I am kind of glad they are now playing the “oh gosh, it really is going to be a tight race” game. It will get those 5-10% of complacent Democrats off their butts and go to the polls, “just in case”. But I agree - even if Obama were polling 20% leads (which he is not), they would still point to Buttfork County in some swing state and say, “Oh look - Obama has slipped 9% in two days!” Come on, they need the drama - and to be honest, we need to get out the vote - win/win. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2012, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/125 "2012-10-03T15:42:53Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > Did they say Romney could be ahead? Latest I saw, they said it was in a statistical dead heat – but only because their internal polling showed Obama 3 points ahead. Once you look at other polls that show Obama ahead by even more, or even aggregate the CNN poll with other polls that also show a 3 point lead, that statistical tie will disappear. The story I saw seems to have passed now, and I can’t find it on the website anymore. But they were emphasising that Romney was pulling ahead of Obama when people were polled about the economy, but Obama still led in terms of foreign policy and certain other issues such as health care. > [@Jophiel](#): > > As much as some folks hoot about “liberal bias” and all that, the real goal of CNN and the rest is to collect eyeballs. And you don’t collect eyeballs by saying “Pfftt… race is over, go home and wait six weeks, folks”. No matter how the race is going, there’ll be breathless media reports of a “horse race” and “close fight” up until election day. > > Obviously, it can actually be a close race. My point is that one guy could be ahead by 10 points and the stories will be about how the other guy is closing the gap or mounting a last minute rally. Yes, but it still disturbs me to see nonsense reports that implies Obama could still lose handily. I figure something really drastic would have to happen to cost Obama the election. That or pro-Obama voters staying home out of a sense of complacency. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![DiggitCamara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/df788c/32.png) [@DiggitCamara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DiggitCamara)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2012, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/126 "2012-10-03T19:03:41Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > Reading the FiveThirtyEight blog makes me confident that Obama will win. But what’s annoying is BBC TV, whose news service we have 24 hours. They are forever portraying the contest as “neck and neck,” “a complete toss-up,” “anyone’s guess” etc. And then there are the local Thai commentators who never seem to understand politics in any country outside of Thailand let alone the US but who are confident in predicting a solid Romney win and telling Thai business what repercussions this will have for them and how to prepare for it now. If it weren’t for FiveThirtyEight, I might be distressing right now. Well, [this](http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21528840.200-the-us-presidential-election-is-no-contest.html) article says > [@New Scientist](#): > > Don’t believe the US presidential opinion polls. Barring a political earthquake, Barack Obama will be re-elected at a canter It’s a (british?) Science Magazine, btw ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2012, 6:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/127 "2012-10-10T06:02:19Z")
Well, fuck me. Nate Silver has Florida back into Romney territory. Wasn’t it close to 70% probability for Obama just a week ago? He has the president winning fewer than 300 electoral votes for the first time since August 28. I really wish I was voting in Florida. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2012, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/128 "2012-10-10T15:34:21Z")
I dunno, did he? Shouldn’t he have some kind of historical graph somewhere? What kind of polls, and how many, have been done in Florida since the debate? Which is he incorporating? ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2012, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/129 "2012-10-10T15:57:35Z")
He actually says in today’s post that Florida hasn’t been polled since the debate, so it’s being heavily affected by the national polls: [QUOTE=Nate Silver] There have been no new polls of Florida since Thursday. But because Mr. Romney has made an overall gain in the forecast since Thursday, and because Florida was very close even before the conventions, the model infers that he probably has a slight edge there now. [/QUOTE] ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2012, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/130 "2012-10-10T16:00:16Z")
Hmm. “Very close”? Perhaps that 70% was an outlier or a post-convention bump, then. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/131 "2012-10-14T03:20:12Z")
I don’t mean to turn this thread into one about Nate Silver, but his is the site I pay most attention to. Besides Florida, now he has Virginia and Colorado turning likely red after being in Obama’s camp for nthe longest time. And President Obama’s share of the popular vote has dipped below 50% to 49.9% against Romney’s 49%. I’m finding this increasingly disconcerting. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/132 "2012-10-14T03:34:26Z")
Check the percentages though. Obama is still ahead. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/133 "2012-10-14T03:35:20Z")
Right, but this is turning into more of a nailbiter – at least for me – than I had ever hoped. ☹ The chance of winning has gone down to only 62.9% from past 80% a short while ago. It’s like a freefall. Now, I know that website and the figures and such are not gospel-truth predictions, but they’re making me feel very squeamish. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/134 "2012-10-14T03:43:44Z")
Eh, it just makes it more interesting. It wouldn’t be any fun if it was a foregone conclusion. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Stately\_Greek\_Automaton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Stately\_Greek\_Automaton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stately_Greek_Automaton)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/135 "2012-10-14T05:12:09Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > Right, but this is turning into more of a nailbiter – at least for me – than I had ever hoped. ☹ The chance of winning has gone down to only 62.9% from past 80% a short while ago. It’s like a freefall. Now, I know that website and the figures and such are not gospel-truth predictions, but they’re making me feel very squeamish. It is kinda interesting to see how much damage just one misstep by Obama, in terms of his debate performance, can really do. I’m torn on whether or not I think a good performance in the next debate can reverse his drop. In other words, how much of this is just a temporary blip and how much of this can be easily regained? ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 6:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/136 "2012-10-14T06:15:07Z")
Maybe this will make Romney overconfident and he’ll screw it. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 10:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/137 "2012-10-14T10:23:58Z")
[Obama leads Romney in Arizona, 44-42%](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/13/poll-presidential-race-close-in-arizona/) If Mitt can’t hold Arizona, he might as well pack it in. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 11:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/138 "2012-10-14T11:55:48Z")
> [@Stately\_Greek\_Automaton](#): > > It is kinda interesting to see how much damage just one misstep by Obama, in terms of his debate performance, can really do. I’m torn on whether or not I think a good performance in the next debate can reverse his drop. In other words, how much of this is just a temporary blip and how much of this can be easily regained? The same people were swayed by a couple nice speeches at the Democratic convention or by a secret tape of Romney saying something that any reasonable person would know by simply reading the Republican platform. Obama wasn’t crushing Romney the whole time, only the last month or so. ---
**Author:** ![Andiethewestie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ba9def/32.png) [@Andiethewestie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andiethewestie)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 12:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/139 "2012-10-14T12:29:26Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > [Obama leads Romney in Arizona, 44-42%](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/13/poll-presidential-race-close-in-arizona/) > > If Mitt can’t hold Arizona, he might as well pack it in. it looks good for O but it won’t happen unless the Latino community says fuck it, this time I am voting, ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2012, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468/140 "2012-10-14T13:11:29Z")
> [@Fiddle\_Peghead](#): > > Check the percentages though. Obama is still ahead. [http://projects.wsj.com/campaign2012/polls#cand=Romney&race=52®ion=WI&src=rcpo](http://projects.wsj.com/campaign2012/polls#cand=Romney&race=52®ion=WI&src=rcpo) He’s not that far ahead. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-how-can-could-will-it-happen/627468.md?page=8)