# If Obama wins in 2012, will the GOP still be trying to repeal healthcare in 2017 **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 30, 2012, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-in-2012-will-the-gop-still-be-trying-to-repeal-healthcare-in-2017/626862 "2012-06-30T23:49:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2012, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-in-2012-will-the-gop-still-be-trying-to-repeal-healthcare-in-2017/626862/21 "2012-07-02T19:16:35Z")
> [@Victor\_Charlie](#): > > While you can’t be denied coverage, the exchanges will still have policies based on risk. If you wait until you have cancer to get insurance, you won’t be paying the same rate as people with no pre-existing conditions. I was under the impression that this isn’t accurate. The exchanges will operate on partial community rating - they can only take into account demographic information (and smoking status) when determining your rates. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2012, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-in-2012-will-the-gop-still-be-trying-to-repeal-healthcare-in-2017/626862/22 "2012-07-02T21:04:13Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > No, but moving from this half-assed patch job to single-payer might be. How realistic is single payer on the national level anytime soon? I see it being realistic 10 years out, but only in a handful of things all occur at the same time. 1. Various states implement it and find it is 20-30% cheaper than regular insurance health care, like the studies say it will. That will give proof of concept that it works in the US. Vermont predicts their health care will be about 25% cheaper (compared to keeping the current system) in the 2020s due to their new health model. 2. A public option tied to medicare or modeled after the VA’s recent reforms, or some other option is eventually added that does the same thing, offers national health insurance option that is 20-30% cheaper and as high quality or higher quality than private insurance. Medicare is rated more highly than private insurance by respondents, I believe the VA system is now rated highest of all in the US due to recent reforms. Both are cheaper than private insurance. 3. Demographic shifts actually continue with the Fox news audience and tea party members dropping off and being replaced by more open minded young voters. This assumes millennials maintain their center left policy views in the 2020s, when they are 35-40% of the electorate and the majority of fox news and talk radio viewers (who are 70 years old on average) are gone. To me it seems possible, but it’ll be a decade or more before the convergence happens and a meaningful, pragmatic health policy is enacted on a national level. For the time being I think just keeping the ACA alive is most important, because it moves the overton window to the left and allows reforms to the ACA (like a public option modeled after medicare or the VA) to be added. ---
**Author:** ![MilTan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/71e660/32.png) [@MilTan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MilTan)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2012, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-in-2012-will-the-gop-still-be-trying-to-repeal-healthcare-in-2017/626862/23 "2012-07-03T00:33:25Z")
> [@Iggy](#): > > Kentucky already tried mandatory issue with community rating. It failed spectacularly. They did not have a mandate. > > I am not convinced that a threat of up to a $695 penalty is going to get enough people to buy a $7000 product in order to make this all financially sustainable. > > Thik of it this way. I have the choice of paying $695 once per year or $584 every month. I am reasonably healthy. If I am diagnosed wth cancer tomorrow then I can just start paying the $584 monthly. > > Easy choice, financially. New York has guaranteed issue and community rating. It has high health insurance rates, but there are plenty of insurance companies. Massachusetts has guaranteed issue, community rating and a mandate. [Premium growth has slowed since the trifecta was instituted](http://fredbauerblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/federal-data-health-insurance-premium.html). ---
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2012, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-in-2012-will-the-gop-still-be-trying-to-repeal-healthcare-in-2017/626862/24 "2012-07-03T03:38:20Z")
> [@MilTan](#): > > New York has guaranteed issue and community rating. It has high health insurance rates, but there are plenty of insurance companies. Massachusetts has guaranteed issue, community rating and a mandate. [Premium growth has slowed since the trifecta was instituted](http://fredbauerblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/federal-data-health-insurance-premium.html). Takes a while to the spiral to have its full effect. 1. Rates go up. 2. Some healthier persons decide they cannot afford it. They cancel. 3. Remaining persons in pool are sicker, on average, than before. 4. Rates increase to cover higher cost of insuring sicker persons. Go to 1. Taken to extreme, eventually the insurance pool is no longer financially viable. Companies stop offering policies that they cannot make a profit on. Wash. Rinse. Repeat. ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2012, 10:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-in-2012-will-the-gop-still-be-trying-to-repeal-healthcare-in-2017/626862/25 "2012-07-03T10:58:33Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > How realistic is single payer on the national level anytime soon? > > I see it being realistic 10 years out, but only in a handful of things all occur at the same time. > > 1. Various states implement it and find it is 20-30% cheaper than regular insurance health care, like the studies say it will. That will give proof of concept that it works in the US. Vermont predicts their health care will be about 25% cheaper (compared to keeping the current system) in the 2020s due to their new health model. > > 2. A public option tied to medicare or modeled after the VA’s recent reforms, or some other option is eventually added that does the same thing, offers national health insurance option that is 20-30% cheaper and as high quality or higher quality than private insurance. Medicare is rated more highly than private insurance by respondents, I believe the VA system is now rated highest of all in the US due to recent reforms. Both are cheaper than private insurance. > > 3. Demographic shifts actually continue with the Fox news audience and tea party members dropping off and being replaced by more open minded young voters. This assumes millennials maintain their center left policy views in the 2020s, when they are 35-40% of the electorate and the majority of fox news and talk radio viewers (who are 70 years old on average) are gone. > > To me it seems possible, but it’ll be a decade or more before the convergence happens and a meaningful, pragmatic health policy is enacted on a national level. For the time being I think just keeping the ACA alive is most important, because it moves the overton window to the left and allows reforms to the ACA (like a public option modeled after medicare or the VA) to be added. In reference to point number 3: I’ve been echoing that sentiment for a while. Basically, we all just need to wait until the folks from _my_ generation - your typical 20-something’s of today who were born near the end of or after the Cold War - to become the majority of the electorate and subsequently start taking over the political scene and running the government. You’re absolutely right; we generally have center-left leanings and don’t have this absolutely irrational fear of socialism that has stymied the health care debate up until now. In the meantime, I also endorse point number 1: I’ve been saying this for a while; the most likely route to true UHC in this country will come in the form of state-by-state adoption of single-payer. A lot - and I mean **a lot** - of that prediction is reliant upon the degree to which Vermont’s system proves to be successful. Assuming it is, I foresee many of the more liberal states emulating the Vermont model; Montana would probably do it next, then California, then maybe Massachusetts, etc. Eventually, that might pave the way for a national model. But yeah, in the short term, ensuring that the ACA is allowed to be completely implemented is probably the most important thing to do right now. ---
**Author:** ![Kvorka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/f08c70/32.png) [@Kvorka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kvorka)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2012, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-in-2012-will-the-gop-still-be-trying-to-repeal-healthcare-in-2017/626862/26 "2012-10-06T14:05:11Z")
Don’t the republican’s have to have 2/3 majority in the house & senate to overide an Obama veto at a congressional attempt to repeal ObamaCare? How many seats in each house are up for grabs and will we it be enough to reach the two thirds majority? If, not is it likely that some democrats may support the repeal attempt and jump side. I’m assuming the Supreme Court will not revisit the law; Is that correct? If Obama wins, there’s no other way to repeal the law except to wait for 2014 or 2016 elections or is there? ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2012, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-in-2012-will-the-gop-still-be-trying-to-repeal-healthcare-in-2017/626862/27 "2012-10-06T14:32:56Z")
California is unlikely IMO to be an early adopter of the single-payer system as long as they’re stuck in their fiscal tar pit. Plus with their loose direct-democracy rules, you’d get proposition after proposition every year to reverse or replace whatever was approved the year before. **Kvorka** : Still, if the GOP gets majority in one or both houses they can seek to deny funding through reconciliation and/or hold the debt ceiling or defense spending or the continuing budget resolution hostage to a scaleback in the program. ---
**Author:** ![brickbacon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/898d66/32.png) [@brickbacon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brickbacon)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2012, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-in-2012-will-the-gop-still-be-trying-to-repeal-healthcare-in-2017/626862/28 "2012-10-06T15:31:08Z")
> [@Iggy](#): > > Kentucky already tried mandatory issue with community rating. It failed spectacularly. They did not have a mandate. > > I am not convinced that a threat of up to a $695 penalty is going to get enough people to buy a $7000 product in order to make this all financially sustainable. > > Thik of it this way. I have the choice of paying $695 once per year or $584 every month. I am reasonably healthy. If I am diagnosed wth cancer tomorrow then I can just start paying the $584 monthly. > > Easy choice, financially. The penalty is will be A LOT many than $695 for most people, and the basic plans should cost around 5k/person. The penalty is up to 2.5% of income above around 10k. So a family with a household income of 100k will pay around $2250. After around 200k, you are fined at the cost of the bronze insurance package. So even though you may initially save money forgoing insurance, it often doesn’t make sense to. Why pay $2250 for nothing, and pay your regular health care costs (which will likely be billed at a higher rate), rather than paying for a cheap plan? ---
**Author:** ![Kvorka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/f08c70/32.png) [@Kvorka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kvorka)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2012, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-in-2012-will-the-gop-still-be-trying-to-repeal-healthcare-in-2017/626862/29 "2012-10-06T15:51:07Z")
> [@JRDelirious](#): > > California is unlikely IMO to be an early adopter of the single-payer system as long as they’re stuck in their fiscal tar pit. Plus with their loose direct-democracy rules, you’d get proposition after proposition every year to reverse or replace whatever was approved the year before. > > **Kvorka** : Still, if the GOP gets majority in one or both houses they can seek to deny funding through reconciliation and/or hold the debt ceiling or defense spending or the continuing budget resolution hostage to a scaleback in the program. Thanks, I found this article: [http://suite101.com/article/killing-obamacare-through-the-congressional-power-of-the-purse-a307705](http://suite101.com/article/killing-obamacare-through-the-congressional-power-of-the-purse-a307705) Sounds like really dangerous politics. Teddy Roosevelt’s solution was innovative! ---
**Author:** ![jasg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f0a364/32.png) [@jasg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jasg)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2012, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-in-2012-will-the-gop-still-be-trying-to-repeal-healthcare-in-2017/626862/30 "2012-10-06T16:53:52Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > No, you can’t; you have to wait for the [open enrollment period](http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2011/07/15/the-insurance-exchanges-open-enrollment-and-switching-plans/) to get insurance through the exchanges, which is once a year, if you didn’t enroll when you were first eligible. That is going to delay your treatment up to nine months, which might be significant in the case of cancer. > > Your choice, though. I am amazed at how little attention is paid to this fact. In a few years, I expect to see the talking heads on TV slamming the ACA for those poor idiots who can’t game the system and buy insurance immediately after getting sick. Medicare has always had a similar enrollment period, how many people skip that until they get sick? ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2012, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-in-2012-will-the-gop-still-be-trying-to-repeal-healthcare-in-2017/626862/31 "2012-10-06T18:26:11Z")
> [@jasg](#): > > In a few years, I expect to see the talking heads on TV slamming the ACA for those poor idiots who can’t game the system and buy insurance immediately after getting sick. This is one reason I wouldn’t support rolling back Social Security. If we removed the self-funded pension tier of the Social Security system, and kept the other parts, we’d basically have a wealth transfer from working upper middle class people to retired former minimum wage earners. We’d get major complaints of “Grandma Jones is too frail to work and her completely free government pension of $500 a month is too low!” despite the fact that she would have had an opportunity to save for her retirement with the extra money-- a couple thousand a year spread over decades – from eliminating SS taxes on the poor. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-obama-wins-in-2012-will-the-gop-still-be-trying-to-repeal-healthcare-in-2017/626862.md?page=1)