# If RFK, Jr. Drops out, how does this impact the election? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [August 21, 2024, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-how-does-this-impact-the-election/1006004 "2024-08-21T16:03:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-how-does-this-impact-the-election/1006004/1 "2024-08-21T16:03:30Z")
Especially if he endorses Trump. Sounds like that is becoming increasingly likely. Wondering how scared to be about this. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-how-does-this-impact-the-election/1006004/2 "2024-08-21T16:08:34Z")
Personally, I don’t think it will matter. RFK, Jr. is getting the support of the crazies that don’t like Trump. If they were willing to vote for Trump, they’d already be in that camp. I think his supporters would be disappointed and disillusioned by RFK Jr. endorsing Trump and would guess some would stay home, some would find another obscure third party to vote for, and some perhaps would vote for Harris. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-how-does-this-impact-the-election/1006004/3 "2024-08-21T16:12:52Z")
For your mouth to God’s ears! I hope so! ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-how-does-this-impact-the-election/1006004/4 "2024-08-21T16:13:34Z")
RFK dropping out will help Trump more than Harris, but it will be a small amount. Weirdly in Pennsylvania though RFK being in seems to be hurting Kamala Harris from the few recent polls where they poll for the full field of Harris, Trump, RFK, Oliver & Stein. > **[Copy of Swing states results summary](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LzqwjWIUjbX4aR2C1ZBlc1KSMYMNHynouToUF06F8b0/edit?gid=154784973#gid=154784973)** > > This Sheet is private > **[Pennsylvania Poll: Despite political turbulence, McCormick remains within...](https://www.cygn.al/pennsylvania-poll-despite-political-turbulence-mccormick-remains-within-striking-distance-of-casey/)** > > WASHINGTON, D.C. (August 16, 2024) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released the following Pennsylvania statewide poll (conducted Aug. 14-15) of 800 likely general election voters. “For all... So from limited polling data RFK might help Harris take Pennsy, which would probably hand her the election, though the popular vote will probably end up closer between her and Trump than if RFK stays in. RFK is not making an impact in Michigan & Wisconsin. IF she wins that pair and Pennsy, she wins. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-how-does-this-impact-the-election/1006004/5 "2024-08-21T17:35:20Z")
A difference of one percent? Not sure if we count that as more than statistical noise. PA is knife’s edge right now. With RFK or without. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-how-does-this-impact-the-election/1006004/6 "2024-08-21T17:38:21Z")
There’s a chance he won’t be on the ballot in PA. > **[RFK Jr. shows up too late to testify in court against Democrats' ballot...](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-pennsylvania-ballot-2024-election-4b507ef71ce23e048e36fb82bb330b09)** > > Robert F. Kennedy Jr. won't testify in defense of his effort to appear on Pennsylvania's presidential ballot. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-how-does-this-impact-the-election/1006004/7 "2024-08-21T18:16:11Z")
Minimally, IMO. A very slight boost to Trump, perhaps. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-how-does-this-impact-the-election/1006004/8 "2024-08-21T18:36:11Z")
Only in RFK Junior’s fantasies does his dropping out (or, for that matter, entering the race) affect the election. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-how-does-this-impact-the-election/1006004/9 "2024-08-21T18:45:11Z")
RFK drops out and fades away is different than RFK drops out and endorses Trump. There’s a useful narrative in there about Trump promising a cabinet position to this wackadoodle, and hitching every one of his ideas to the already-wackadoodle MAGA wagon. He’d be another Project 2025, a concrete object lesson on what Trump stands for and what liberals stand to lose if Trump wins. It wouldn’t convince anybody to switch sides but I bet it would get more souls to the polls for Democrats than for Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-how-does-this-impact-the-election/1006004/10 "2024-08-21T18:56:47Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > Especially if he endorses Trump. Sounds like that is becoming increasingly likely. Word is that [he’s leaning towards endorsing Trump](https://abcnews.go.com/US/rfk-jr-plans-drop-presidential-race-end-week/story?id=113028999). Seems like a solid bet. Nicole Shanahan is floating the idea of a “unity party” with Trump. Maybe Junior and Nicole will actively stump for Donald on the campaign trail. Should make for interesting Kennedy family get-togethers in future. \*take from Mike Rothschild, author of _Jewish Space Lasers_: > [@](#): > > My guess is that if he drops out, he’d still get some write-ins, others will vote for other third-party candidates, some just won’t vote, and a few will jump to Trump. Some disaffected Democrats might also jump to Harris. This whole thing might also just be a fundraising ploy. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-how-does-this-impact-the-election/1006004/11 "2024-08-21T19:41:30Z")
I think Kennedy being in the race was always going to hurt Trump because of splitting the anti-science conspiracy theory vote. In Pennsylvania, [”Democratic activists”](https://www.wvtm13.com/article/rfk-jr-ballot-challenge-hearing-pennsylvania/61936651) have been trying to keep Kennedy off our ballots. I do not know who these activists are, but it sounds to me like an own goal. Many Democrats thought Kennedy would hurt their party because of Kennedy being a historically Democratic name in American politics. I even posted this as a possibility, but now it seems to me quite wrong. It is a common surname with the current Senator Kennedy of course being a Republican. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-how-does-this-impact-the-election/1006004/12 "2024-08-21T19:49:58Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Many Democrats thought Kennedy would hurt their party because of Kennedy being a historically Democratic name in American politics. I even posted this as a possibility, but now it seems to me quite wrong. It may always have been wrong, but I’ve seen quite a few man-in-the-street interviews with black men saying things like ‘_Kennedys are always good for black people_’. So it’s also possible that there was something to the theory that some low-information voters who happened to be black, and who would otherwise have voted for a Democrat, were going to vote for RFK Jr. The whole thing with Trump promising RFK Jr. a Cabinet position in return for an endorsement is unsavory—but of course that sort of thing is fine by Trump’s base. Still, perhaps it will bother the less-engaged moderate voters. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-how-does-this-impact-the-election/1006004/13 "2024-08-21T20:01:49Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > The whole thing with Trump promising RFK Jr. a Cabinet position in return for an endorsement is unsavory—but of course that sort of thing is fine by Trump’s base. Still, perhaps it will bother the less-engaged moderate voters. It’s more than unsavory, it’s outright vote-buying bribery – or, IOW, just business as usual for the Orange Felon. Some Trump supporters might actually be energized by the idea that an anti-vax, anti-mask, anti-science wackadoodle would be appointed to a position where he could implement policy. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-how-does-this-impact-the-election/1006004/14 "2024-08-21T20:06:39Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > Some Trump supporters might actually be energized by the idea that an anti-vax, anti-mask, anti-science wackadoodle would be appointed to a position where he could implement policy. Sadly true. Anything to make them feel justified in their “I do my own research” pro-ignorance position. As if the Trump campaign needed to provide yet _another_ proof that they are the most anti-integrity operation ever to operate on U.S. soil… ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-how-does-this-impact-the-election/1006004/15 "2024-08-21T20:35:00Z")
RFK Jr. is only **[on the ballot in 25 out of 50 states](https://ballotpedia.org/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.)**. I was hoping that would be a helpful fact … but it turns out that he’s on the ballot in five of the seven main swing states (PA, MI, WI, NC, AZ) plus Florida. Off the ballot in Nevada and Georgia, for what that’s worth. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-how-does-this-impact-the-election/1006004/16 "2024-08-21T20:47:18Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > Especially if he endorses Trump. Why would he do that? Bobby Jr’s environmental work is the only legacy he has left if he drops out of the race. He’s never going to endorse an environmentally ruinous platform like the GOP’s. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-how-does-this-impact-the-election/1006004/17 "2024-08-21T20:55:32Z")
He’s dropping out Friday and endorsing the orange shitgibbon. > **[RFK Jr. is planning to drop out of the 2024 presidential race and endorse Trump](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-plans-speech-path-forward-talk-potentially-backing-trump-rcna167606)** > > JD Vance, Trump's running mate, told NBC News in an interview that "there's been a lot of communication back and forth" between the two campaigns. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-how-does-this-impact-the-election/1006004/18 "2024-08-21T20:58:42Z")
I guess he never really gave a fuck about climate change. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-how-does-this-impact-the-election/1006004/19 "2024-08-21T21:04:31Z")
> [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](#): > > Why would he do that? Bobby Jr’s environmental work is the only legacy he has left if he drops out of the race. He’s never going to endorse an environmentally ruinous platform like the GOP’s. Yes, he is doing just that. Endorsing Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2024, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-how-does-this-impact-the-election/1006004/20 "2024-08-21T21:09:56Z")
The question remains: Why? If it is out of sheer spite; how does he even put a fig leaf on that? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-how-does-this-impact-the-election/1006004.md?page=2)