# If Sarah Palin decided to run as an independent, how much damage could she do to the GOP? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 10, 2009, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-sarah-palin-decided-to-run-as-an-independent-how-much-damage-could-she-do-to-the-gop/505898 "2009-08-10T01:19:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BKReporter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8e7dd6/32.png) [@BKReporter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BKReporter)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-sarah-palin-decided-to-run-as-an-independent-how-much-damage-could-she-do-to-the-gop/505898/1 "2009-08-10T01:19:18Z")
She’s popular with the base, but everything I’ve read indicates she doesn’t get much love from those in the upper ranks of the Republican Party. So, purely hypothetically, if she decided to break ranks with the GOP and run as an independent, what would happen? I’d imagine the corporatists would stay with the party, but she’d probably grab a large chunk of the religious and family values crowd. I still highly doubt that she’d come anywhere near winning the presidency, but she could draw away enough voters to give Obama an easy victory in 2012. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-sarah-palin-decided-to-run-as-an-independent-how-much-damage-could-she-do-to-the-gop/505898/2 "2009-08-10T01:22:17Z")
Oh, please; oh, please; ohpleaseopleaseoplease! Comedic gold, I tells ya! ---
**Author:** ![RealityChuck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitychuck/32/195_2.png) [@RealityChuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityChuck)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-sarah-palin-decided-to-run-as-an-independent-how-much-damage-could-she-do-to-the-gop/505898/3 "2009-08-10T01:24:23Z")
She would kill the Republicans by siphoning off voters. Even if the Republicans ran someone ideologically similar, she’d draw votes away. It’s highly unlikely she’d have any chance as a third-party candidate, either. Her appeal is much too narrow. ---
**Author:** ![Linty\_Fresh](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c5a1d2/32.png) [@Linty\_Fresh](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Linty_Fresh)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-sarah-palin-decided-to-run-as-an-independent-how-much-damage-could-she-do-to-the-gop/505898/4 "2009-08-10T01:34:19Z")
> [@RealityChuck](#): > > It’s highly unlikely she’d have any chance as a third-party candidate, either. Her appeal is much too narrow. Yeah, I’m actually skeptical of the claim that she’s popular with “the base.” I see mass support for her among the freepers, but not really anywhere else. Quitting the position of governor pretty much screwed her chances in politics, and rightfully so. Most sane conservatives I know consider her a quitter and a whiner, totally unfit for any post. As far as I’m concerned, she’s not mainstream anymore and never will be. My take on it is that if she siphoned off enough votes to significantly affect the republican vote, it would mean that the republicans would never really have had a chance against Obama in 2012 anyway. Minimal to no impact in the final analysis. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-sarah-palin-decided-to-run-as-an-independent-how-much-damage-could-she-do-to-the-gop/505898/5 "2009-08-10T03:20:33Z")
Moving thread from IMHO to Great Debates. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-sarah-palin-decided-to-run-as-an-independent-how-much-damage-could-she-do-to-the-gop/505898/6 "2009-08-10T03:23:56Z")
Is there a fund I can contribute to in order to make this happen? This would be the best thing in politics since, well, uh… maybe ever! ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-sarah-palin-decided-to-run-as-an-independent-how-much-damage-could-she-do-to-the-gop/505898/7 "2009-08-10T03:53:04Z")
She has the religious right and the not very bright in her pocketbook. She can get about 10 percent . Some religious people actually can think of other reasons to vote for a president. They have to fear her in the Whitehouse. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-sarah-palin-decided-to-run-as-an-independent-how-much-damage-could-she-do-to-the-gop/505898/8 "2009-08-10T04:20:23Z")
Damage? she would save the party. Oh sure, they would get creamed in 2012 and 2016, but their chances were pretty iffy anyways. Removing the “sarah palin” wing of the party would be the best thing that could happen to the GOP and might put them back on track to become a respectable party worth voting for once again in one swift stroke. This is like asking “how much damage will it do to grandma if we remove her cancer”, it might hurt a bit in the short term but it has to be done if you want her to survive. ---
**Author:** ![fuzzypickles](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/9d8465/32.png) [@fuzzypickles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fuzzypickles)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-sarah-palin-decided-to-run-as-an-independent-how-much-damage-could-she-do-to-the-gop/505898/9 "2009-08-10T04:59:20Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > Damage? she would save the party. [snip] Removing the “sarah palin” wing of the party would be the best thing that could happen to the GOP and might put them back on track to become a respectable party worth voting for once again in one swift stroke. Exactly. The religious right have dominated the GOP to the point where nobody takes them seriously anymore, they have become one big joke. The only way for Republicans to survive is to completely divorce themselves from the whackjob fundies (they can keep Rush, I suppose) and get back to the basics of social & fiscal conservatism. I’d love to see Sarah Palin & her fundie followers form their own third party, so they could be as marginal and ineffectual as every third party in the history of U.S. politics. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-sarah-palin-decided-to-run-as-an-independent-how-much-damage-could-she-do-to-the-gop/505898/10 "2009-08-10T05:07:19Z")
Why would she do that? The GOP loves her. She’s destined to be a Fox News Anchor. ---
**Author:** ![Digital\_Stimulus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@Digital\_Stimulus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Digital_Stimulus)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 7:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-sarah-palin-decided-to-run-as-an-independent-how-much-damage-could-she-do-to-the-gop/505898/11 "2009-08-10T07:13:20Z")
> [@BKReporter](#): > > So, purely hypothetically, if she decided to break ranks with the GOP and run as an independent, what would happen? Y’know all the crap that’s getting spewed Obama’s way? Some of it would be diverted towards Palin. Not too much of it…just enough to put her out of contention for any national elected office. The GOP brass would never allow her to become a credible third party candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_Dunlop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/848f3c/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_Dunlop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_Dunlop)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-sarah-palin-decided-to-run-as-an-independent-how-much-damage-could-she-do-to-the-gop/505898/12 "2009-08-10T13:22:54Z")
> [@BKReporter](#): > > She’s popular with the base, but everything I’ve read indicates she doesn’t get much love from those in the upper ranks of the Republican Party. > So, purely hypothetically, if she decided to break ranks with the GOP and run as an independent, what would happen? > I’d imagine the corporatists would stay with the party, but she’d probably grab a large chunk of the religious and family values crowd. > I still highly doubt that she’d come anywhere near winning the presidency, but she could draw away enough voters to give Obama an easy victory in 2012. There’s only so much damage that could even be done to the GOP at this point. Palin running as an independent would clinch the win for Obama. People’s perceptions of these things tend to lag reality, which is why people persist in talking about how Palin only appeals to the GOP base and will never appeal to the more moderate fiscal conservatives in the party. As if there were many of them left anyway. Why do you think there are more independents in the country than Republicans right now? Because the moderate fiscal conservatives gave up on the whacko party but don’t necessarily want to be Democrats either. I was arguing with a Republican colleague recently who told me he thought these fringe ‘birthers’ are alienating the moderate majority of the party. Except 58% of the party doubts Obama is a citizen. Nut cases aren`t a fringe, they are the party now. And it’s not that nutcases have increased, it’s just that the party has shrunk that much. So how can you have the “Obama wants to choke my retarded baby” queen of the whackos running against ANY Republican candidate? They’d have absolutely no shot. They won’t have any shot anyway unless Obama totally fucks up his job and they actually start coming up with some ideas, any ideas at all. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-sarah-palin-decided-to-run-as-an-independent-how-much-damage-could-she-do-to-the-gop/505898/13 "2009-08-10T16:44:23Z")
I think it would depend on who the Republican nominee was. If there is a sense that he/she wasn’t conservative enough, then conservatives might drift to Palin. If the nominee is considered a solid conservative (like Bush in 2000) then a third party run (Buchanan) will gain very little steam. ---
**Author:** ![Sinaijon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/dc4da7/32.png) [@Sinaijon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sinaijon)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-sarah-palin-decided-to-run-as-an-independent-how-much-damage-could-she-do-to-the-gop/505898/14 "2009-08-10T16:50:34Z")
> [@BKReporter](#): > > I still highly doubt that she’d come anywhere near winning the presidency, but she could draw away enough voters to give Obama an easy victory in 2012. I think she’d cause some long term damage to the Democrats as well. For some reason, people can’t just deal with her straight up. She just brings out the misogyny in everyone. Another full campaign year of that (after Hillary and Palin in 2008) will put the lie to any claim Democrats have of being the party more friendly towards women. ---
**Author:** ![Giles](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/giles/32/60_2.png) [@Giles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Giles)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-sarah-palin-decided-to-run-as-an-independent-how-much-damage-could-she-do-to-the-gop/505898/15 "2009-08-10T17:09:10Z")
> [@Sinaijon](#): > > I think she’d cause some long term damage to the Democrats as well. For some reason, people can’t just deal with her straight up. She just brings out the misogyny in everyone. > > Another full campaign year of that (after Hillary and Palin in 2008) will put the lie to any claim Democrats have of being the party more friendly towards women. I saw more racism than misogyny is the 2008 election campaign – a lot more – yet the candidate with the funny name that he got from his Kenyan father won the election. It seems to me that both parties are generally accepting of women as leaders these days – who is the Speaker, and leader of the Democrats in the House of Representative? and who is the Secretary of State, and most senior in the Cabinet after the Pres and VP? – and it’s just Sarah Palin personally who gets on a lot of peoples’ nerves. Just because Hillary Clinton very narrowly lost the primaries does not mean that the Democrats are unfriendly to women. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-sarah-palin-decided-to-run-as-an-independent-how-much-damage-could-she-do-to-the-gop/505898/16 "2009-08-10T18:46:48Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > Damage? she would save the party. Oh sure, they would get creamed in 2012 and 2016, but their chances were pretty iffy anyways. Removing the “sarah palin” wing of the party would be the best thing that could happen to the GOP and might put them back on track to become a respectable party worth voting for once again in one swift stroke. This is like asking “how much damage will it do to grandma if we remove her cancer”, it might hurt a bit in the short term but it has to be done if you want her to survive. That doesn’t make sense to me. What happens to those in the “Sarah Palin” wing after 2012? ---
**Author:** ![The\_Second\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@The\_Second\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Second_Stone)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-sarah-palin-decided-to-run-as-an-independent-how-much-damage-could-she-do-to-the-gop/505898/17 "2009-08-10T18:58:27Z")
Who can run on a ticket with Sarah? Joe the Plumber? Michelle Bachmann? Michelle Malkin? Ann Coulter? Sen. Grassley? Please, please, please let this happen! ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-sarah-palin-decided-to-run-as-an-independent-how-much-damage-could-she-do-to-the-gop/505898/18 "2009-08-10T19:05:12Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_Dunlop](#): > > I was arguing with a Republican colleague recently who told me he thought these fringe ‘birthers’ are alienating the moderate majority of the party. Except 58% of the party doubts Obama is a citizen. Nut cases aren`t a fringe, they are the party now. And it’s not that nutcases have increased, it’s just that the party has shrunk that much. There is no moderate Republican majority. Laying aside the birthers, 68% of Republicans self-identify as conservative. That’s a two-thirds majority of conservatives. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-sarah-palin-decided-to-run-as-an-independent-how-much-damage-could-she-do-to-the-gop/505898/19 "2009-08-10T19:12:55Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > That doesn’t make sense to me. What happens to those in the “Sarah Palin” wing after 2012? Either they’d throw a fit and break off into a third party, or they’d be marginalized like most of the left wing crazies ( and left wing moderates for that matter ) are in the Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2009, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-sarah-palin-decided-to-run-as-an-independent-how-much-damage-could-she-do-to-the-gop/505898/20 "2009-08-10T19:17:49Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Either they’d throw a fit and break off into a third party, or they’d be marginalized like most of the left wing crazies ( and left wing moderates for that matter ) are in the Democrats. There are too many of them to marginalize. Look at the results of that birther poll! If there are enough of them to make a difference in an election, there are enough of them for the GOP (or, hell the Dems) to tonguebathe. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-sarah-palin-decided-to-run-as-an-independent-how-much-damage-could-she-do-to-the-gop/505898.md?page=2)