# If smallpox got out, how bad would it be in modern times **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 28, 2021, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891 "2021-03-28T04:02:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2021, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/21 "2021-03-29T00:30:23Z")
> [@kitap](#): > > I think the opposite. How many anti-vaxxers remember smallpox? They’d be all, “it’s no worse than chicken pox, what’s the big deal?” A very common belief among the antivaxxers is that the idea smallpox went away is a hoax. In fact, they say, we still have smallpox, it’s just chickenpox and monkeypox; those are all the same disease, and it is not possible to tell the difference between the viruses. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2021, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/22 "2021-03-29T02:50:10Z")
A pox on them! Which seriously was a very strong curse back in the day. Sort of like “I wish you to be tortured to death and your body chopped into chunks and the pieces left on pikes around town.” Nobody who had any idea what smallpox was joked about it. ---
**Author:** ![RivkahChaya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rivkahchaya/32/8919_2.png) [@RivkahChaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RivkahChaya)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2021, 7:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/23 "2021-03-29T07:40:59Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > A very common belief among the antivaxxers is that the idea smallpox went away is a hoax. I am no longer shocked by anything they say, since I had one, in all seriousness, tell me that measles is not a serious disease, and as proof, just watch the episode of _The Brady Bunch_, where the kids all had it at once, and were home from school for a week, but just hung out, watching TV and playing board games, and then were fine. I also read a blurb once from Maureen McCormick (Marcia Brady), who said that people had made similar remarks to her, to the point that she wished that episode had never been made. ---
**Author:** ![phs3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8491ac/32.png) [@phs3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/phs3)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2021, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/24 "2021-03-29T19:52:16Z")
> [@Odesio](#): > > I strongly suspect one of the reasons anti-vaxxers are such a threat these days is because vaccines have been so successful we’ve collectively forgotten just how horrible some of those diseases could be. Yes. The good news (such as it is) about a smallpox outbreak is that it’s both more visible (the pocks) and more deadly. So it would be harder for folks to ignore. Not impossible, and I do fear that there would be enough idiots to cause massive damage. But at least people would find it a lot more difficult to say “It’s only the common cold”, as I’ve heard people say about COVID19. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2021, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/25 "2021-03-29T22:42:01Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > If it was variola major that got loose, well, things get stickier. And yet there were anti-vaxxers when variola major was endemic. George Washington required that his troops undergo inoculation, despite that having at least a 1 percent death rate. Compare and contrast with the risks of COVID vaccines and the current U.S military stance (voluntary AFAIK). ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2021, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/26 "2021-03-30T19:13:20Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > And yet there were anti-vaxxers when variola major was endemic. > > George Washington required that his troops undergo inoculation, despite that having at least a 1 percent death rate. Compare and contrast with the risks of COVID vaccines and the current U.S military stance (voluntary AFAIK). This is misleading. What Washington was advocating was _variolation_ not vaccination. This meant introducing a very small amount of actual smallpox into the body in the hopes that it would lead to a (relatively) mild case that would confer immunity. I didn’t realize that the death rate was 1%, although it doesn’t surprise. Vaccination involves cowpox, which is much less dangerous. There are very rare deaths, but the odds are with you. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2021, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/27 "2021-03-30T20:49:12Z")
> [@Hari\_Seldon](#): > > This is misleading. What Washington was advocating was _variolation_ not vaccination. Sorry, I assumed that everyone would know the difference between vaccination and [innoculation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inoculation), variolation being inoculation with smallpox. My point was that George Washington, presumably an unalloyed hero to almost all American anti-vaxxers, required a far more dangerous preventive medical procedure that anything now contemplated. [Today’s U.S. miliatry anti-vaxxers](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/feb/27/covid-coronavirus-us-military-vaccine) would have been classed among the summertime soldiers by Thomas Paine and then forcibly inoculated… As for smallpox being so much more fearsome than COVID, people aren’t always good at risk assessment. Anti-vax sentiment has less to do with disease severity, and more to do with level of trust in government. In the famous 1947 New York City smallpox outbreak, there seems to have been little anti-vax sentiment, perhaps because, shortly after winning a major war, there was a high level of trust in government. ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2021, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/28 "2021-03-30T21:03:19Z")
It is POSSIBLE that folks who where vaccinated (even a long time ago) may be at least partially immune: > **[Smallpox immunity may last a lifetime](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn4064-smallpox-immunity-may-last-a-lifetime/)** > > The protection offered by vaccination may last much longer than thought – good news if terrorists ever release the bug Brian ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2021, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/29 "2021-03-30T21:14:57Z")
Still iffy, though - the last person known to have died from variola major, [Janet Parker,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom) had been previously vaccinated. There might be some lingering immunity from old immunizations, but you may not want to bet your life on it. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2021, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/30 "2021-03-31T14:36:36Z")
Besides which, no one under 50 has ever been vaccinated against smallpox. In fact my 53 yo son hasn’t been either. ---
**Author:** ![Dogginit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dogginit/32/16920_2.png) [@Dogginit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dogginit)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2021, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/31 "2021-03-31T17:12:55Z")
> [@N9IWP](#): > > It is POSSIBLE that folks who where vaccinated (even a long time ago) may be at least partially immune: Growing up, I received more than one smallpox vaccination - because of my history with cold sores. The smallpox vaccine would keep them at bay for 3 or so years at a time. When the smallpox vaccine became unavailable to me, the cold sores came back. I deal with several a year. I can’t say how the effectiveness of the vaccine against smallpox lasts, but I know it goes away after a few years for cold sores. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2021, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/32 "2021-03-31T21:08:28Z")
> [@Hari\_Seldon](#): > > Besides which, no one under 50 has ever been vaccinated against smallpox. In fact my 53 yo son hasn’t been either. Some first responders/medical/military under 50 have been vaccinated as a “just in case” in the event someone has a stash of the virus and decides to commit a little bio-terrorism with it, but outside of those few you are correct. ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2021, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/33 "2021-04-02T02:36:46Z")
My friend’s husband was vaccinated, and he had to be quarantined for 28 days. ---
**Author:** ![mandala](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mandala/32/95_2.png) [@mandala](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mandala)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2021, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/34 "2021-04-20T16:05:23Z")
How do we know that smallpox has been eradicated? Is there not an animal reservoir for this virus? ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2021, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/35 "2021-04-20T16:12:24Z")
> [@mandala](#): > > How do we know that smallpox has been eradicated? Is there not an animal reservoir for this virus? - > **[Smallpox](https://www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/smallpox)** > > Smallpox is a priority for NIAID. Research for effective vaccines, drugs, and diagnostics continues in the event it is used as a bioterror weapon. > The last naturally occurring case of smallpox was reported in 1977. In 1980, the World Health Organization declared that smallpox had been eradicated. Currently, there is no evidence of naturally occurring smallpox transmission anywhere in the world. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2021, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/36 "2021-04-20T16:13:30Z")
There might be, but given that smallpox can now be created in a lab, it’s kind of moot. We don’t need a natural source to infect us; bad guys could make it. [" In 2017, Canadian scientists recreated an extinct horse pox virus to demonstrate that the smallpox virus can be recreated in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, by a team of scientists without specialist knowledge. This makes the retention controversy moot since the virus can be easily recreated even if all samples are destroyed. Although the scientists performed the research to help development of new vaccines as well as trace smallpox’s history, the possibility of the techniques being used for nefarious purposes was immediately recognized."](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox) ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2021, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/37 "2021-04-20T16:15:03Z")
> [@mandala](#): > > How do we know that smallpox has been eradicated? Is there not an animal reservoir for this virus? Smallpox occurs only in humans. The assumption is that we got from animals somehow - cowpox seems the likely route it took - but it long ago mutated into two variants, both of which can occur only in us. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2021, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/38 "2021-04-20T17:17:57Z")
> [@mandala](#): > > How do we know that smallpox has been eradicated? Is there not an animal reservoir for this virus? Second questions first: No, there is no animal reservoir for this virus. First question second: Technically, we know it hasn’t been eradicated. There are known samples in deep freeze and a very, very few laboratories. What is meant by “smallpox is eradicated” is that it no longer exists in the wild, that is, outside a laboratory. It has been decades since a case was reported, and since the stuff spreads like wildfire if there had been a case we’d almost certainly know about it. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2021, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/39 "2021-04-20T22:11:11Z")
More like age 40. We had my infant daughter vaccinated in 1983. Granted, the pediatrician had stopped offering it by 1985 when my sons were born. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2021, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/40 "2021-04-20T23:02:15Z")
> [@Hari\_Seldon](#): > > Besides which, no one under 50 has ever been vaccinated against smallpox. In fact my 53 yo son hasn’t been either. Untrue, actually. A small number of armed forces/first responders have been vaccinated over the past 20 years just in case some bad guy gets ahold of some smallpox and decides to release it. Also, anyone who does research with smallpox - which is a very, very small group of people. But for 99.9% of humanity your statement is true. [/nitpick] [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891.md?page=3)