# If smallpox got out, how bad would it be in modern times **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 28, 2021, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891 "2021-03-28T04:02:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![BippityBoppityBoo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bippityboppityboo/32/5745_2.png) [@BippityBoppityBoo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BippityBoppityBoo)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2021, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/41 "2021-04-20T23:28:05Z")
The CDC says that routine vaccination for smallpox stopped in the US in 1971. So, just about 50 years ago. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2021, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/42 "2021-04-20T23:43:01Z")
But that still leaves room for non-routine vaccination, and vaccination of individuals outside the US. A friend of mine from Ecuador, for instance, would be in his 40s now, and once showed me his smallpox vaccination scar. ---
**Author:** ![BwanaBob](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bwanabob/32/2985_2.png) [@BwanaBob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BwanaBob)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2021, 11:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/43 "2021-04-21T11:57:22Z")
This brings up a question. If I had the vaccination back when I was a kid, which I did, is there any way for me to get a booster vaccination? Can doctor’s still “prescribe” one? ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2021, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/44 "2021-04-21T12:17:19Z")
Well, yes, in theory your doctor could prescribe one, but I doubt you’d actually get the vaccine unless there was a reason to justify it in your case. ---
**Author:** ![DemonTree](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/demontree/32/8646_2.png) [@DemonTree](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DemonTree)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2021, 8:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/45 "2021-04-26T08:37:40Z")
Better hope it’s not the Soviet bioweapon version of smallpox that gets out: > **[1971 Aral smallpox incident](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1971_Aral_smallpox_incident)** > > Pages for logged out editors learn more > > > The Aral smallpox incident was a 30 July 1971 outbreak of the viral disease which occurred as a result of a field test at a Soviet biological weapons (BW) facility on an island in the Aral Sea. The incident sickened ten people, of whom three died, and came to widespread public notice only in 2002. > In 1954, an existing biological weapons test site originally constructed on Vozrozhdeniya Island in the Aral Sea in 1948 was greatly expanded by the S... ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2021, 10:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/46 "2021-04-26T10:34:47Z")
Oh, yeah, that’s a nasty one, far worse than the original version of smallpox. That one has the potential to wipe out a majority of the human population and crash civilization. I keep hoping that the Soviets came to their senses and destroyed it, but I’m not sure anyone knows for sure what happened to the samples. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2021, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/47 "2021-04-26T22:30:57Z")
I agree with Monty here, he raises some very cogent points. Note that that anti-vaxxers hate the measles vaccine and measles isnt some new disease. I wonder, is my old smallpox vaccine shot still good? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2021, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/48 "2021-04-26T22:32:07Z")
Yeah, immediate as opposed to longer, two different scenarios, i concur. And if the failure is hidden- then more issues. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2021, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/49 "2021-04-26T22:33:06Z")
> [@Hari\_Seldon](#): > > I remember that. I was in fifth grade and the lined us up in the school yard and vaccinated us all. It was not an injection; just a scratch on the upper arm. Yep I still have a scar, I think. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2021, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/50 "2021-04-27T00:55:35Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > I wonder, is my old smallpox vaccine shot still good? Nope. Only good for about 10 years. > [@Hari\_Seldon](#): > > I remember that. I was in fifth grade and the lined us up in the school yard and vaccinated us all. It was not an injection; just a scratch on the upper arm. Yep, that’s the one. I still have my scar 55 years later. It’s very much faded, but it’s still there if you look for it. > [@Hari\_Seldon](#): > > The problem is that I don’t think there are any stores of smallpox vaccines. Moreover, I have read that the old vaccine has never received the kind of regulatory study that would be required today before approval. You’d think that billions of successful doses would suffice, but you know those bureaucrats. There are stores of the old vaccine, they went and made more of it after 9/11. There are also some other, newer versions but since there is no smallpox they haven’t been actually tested. The old vaccine was first developed in 1790-something. No, that’s not a typo, that really is a “17” to start that year. Needless to say, they did not have the same requirements back then we do now. The old vaccine had a relatively high rate of complications and deaths associated with it and, being a live vaccine, could spread infection to others. I don’t think it would pass muster with modern standards, it was basically grandfathered in. Still better than getting actual smallpox, though. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2021, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/51 "2021-04-27T00:56:56Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > I still have my scar 55 years later. It’s very much faded, but it’s still there if you look for it. Fistbump of solidarity. ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2021, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/52 "2021-04-27T03:24:04Z")
The antibodies are probably lifelong, although it’s unknown how well they would work should full-strength virus (i.e. variola major) somehow get out into the population. I have never believed that only two deep freezes contain it, either. Here’s an example from our own country, just a few years ago. > **[The U.S. Just Found Some Rogue Smallpox In a Closet, No Big Deal](https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2014/07/the-us-just-found-some-rogue-smallpox-in-a-closet-no-big-deal/374101/)** > > On Tuesday, the CDC announced that it found vials of a smallpox-causing virus in a lab's storage room.  ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2021, 9:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/53 "2021-04-27T09:06:44Z")
> [@nearwildheaven](#): > > The antibodies are probably lifelong, although it’s unknown how well they would work should full-strength virus (i.e. variola major) somehow get out into the population. There have been cases of people who were vaccinated catching smallpox - there actually is some compelling evidence (like deceased people) that the vaccine is not effective at preventing disease or death past about 10 years. ---
**Author:** ![DemonTree](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/demontree/32/8646_2.png) [@DemonTree](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DemonTree)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2021, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/54 "2021-04-27T14:40:32Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > The old vaccine had a relatively high rate of complications and deaths associated with it and, being a live vaccine, could spread infection to others. I don’t think it would pass muster with modern standards, it was basically grandfathered in. Does this mean that in a real emergency situation you could vaccinate a few people and have them spread it to others, if there wasn’t enough vaccine stockpiled? You’d know if it had worked by the formation of a scar. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2021, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/55 "2021-04-27T14:53:02Z")
I only learned recently that smallpox can spread via airborne transmission; I’d always thought it was a skin-contact only disease. ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2021, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/56 "2021-04-27T19:34:09Z")
That’s true (the 1978 incident in England was proof of that) but the disease is not as severe. Still not something I want to find out the hard way, that’s for sure. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2021, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/57 "2021-04-27T19:47:02Z")
> [@DemonTree](#): > > > [@Broomstick](#): > > > > The old vaccine had a relatively high rate of complications and deaths associated with it and, being a live vaccine, could spread infection to others. I don’t think it would pass muster with modern standards, it was basically grandfathered in. > > Does this mean that in a real emergency situation you could vaccinate a few people and have them spread it to others, if there wasn’t enough vaccine stockpiled? You’d know if it had worked by the formation of a scar. That was simply incomprehensible. Care to try again? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2021, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/58 "2021-04-27T20:36:07Z")
Deliberately spread infectious cowpox to combat smallpox. Smallpox is a bit unusual in that, while the vaccine contains “live” virus, it’s not the same virus. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2021, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/59 "2021-04-27T20:42:46Z")
In theory, you could do that for most diseases. You _could_ develop a strain of COVID that is more contagious, but is asymptomatic, which could inoculate the population without anyone have to get a jab. Just hope it doesn’t mutate into a less benign variant. ---
**Author:** ![DemonTree](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/demontree/32/8646_2.png) [@DemonTree](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DemonTree)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2021, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891/60 "2021-04-27T21:26:35Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Deliberately spread infectious cowpox to combat smallpox. Smallpox is a bit unusual in that, while the vaccine contains “live” virus, it’s not the same virus. Yes, exactly (well, technically you’d be spreading vaccinia, which isn’t (any longer?) the same as cowpox). According to this, early vaccinations were done person-to-person: [https://blogs.biomedcentral.com/on-biology/2020/11/16/exploring-the-history-of-smallpox-vaccination-with-19th-century-american-vaccination-kits/](https://blogs.biomedcentral.com/on-biology/2020/11/16/exploring-the-history-of-smallpox-vaccination-with-19th-century-american-vaccination-kits/) There would be a risk of transmitting other diseases, but if the alternative is catching one of the nastier strains of variola major… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-smallpox-got-out-how-bad-would-it-be-in-modern-times/938891.md?page=4)