# If Texas seceded, how far up shit creek would they be? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [January 26, 2024, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-texas-seceded-how-far-up-shit-creek-would-they-be/996644 "2024-01-26T01:22:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![DPRK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/4491bb/32.png) [@DPRK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DPRK)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-texas-seceded-how-far-up-shit-creek-would-they-be/996644/21 "2024-01-26T03:55:13Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > It is a “what if” scenario, folks. For the purpose of this discussion just assume it happened. OK. How about, Texas secedes, and the new polity is immediately beset by mass emigration (of people + multinational corporations) and lack of diplomatic relations leading to disadvantageous trade and access to resources, exacerbating industrial decline in most sectors. After a couple of years of economic collapse, ruinous hyperinflation and increasing privation and civil unrest, the USA invades in response to an appeal for assistance by oppressed ethnic American groups subject to “odious tyranny” (or whatever excuse) and, following a couple of short but decisive battles Texas falls under U.S. military occupation; reconstruction begins. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-texas-seceded-how-far-up-shit-creek-would-they-be/996644/22 "2024-01-26T04:41:05Z")
That is pretty far up shit creek, I would say. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-texas-seceded-how-far-up-shit-creek-would-they-be/996644/23 "2024-01-26T05:05:32Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > Trump might build a wall making that difficult. Bring a ladder. Given [the extent of ‘Wall’ built under Trump](https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2023/aug/09/donald-trump/how-many-miles-of-border-wall-did-donald-trump-bui/) that isn’t much of a threat. > [@Procrustus](#): > > Didn’t the US give up the Philippines? The United States tried to annex the Philippines as a ‘spoil-of-war’ from the Spanish-American War but there was never any broad consensus to integrate the Philippines as a US territory and significant domestic anti-imperialist objection. It was certainly never considered for statehood and unlike the Hawai’ian archipelago or islands like Guam, Midway, Wake, et cetera, was not as strategically valuable because of the internal resistance to US interests and inherent vulnerability because of Japanese control of much of Southeast Asia. It is also not continuous with the Continental United States and never tightly integrated into the US economy the way Hawai’i was, or Texas (not only a big natural gas producer but also one of the largest producers of solar and wind energy) is. People who think that Texas can secede and maintain its economy are even more deluded than those who think that California can break off into an independent nation (which is at least marginally plausible under its domestic production, resources, and industry). From an energy production standpoint Texas can be independent and even a net exporter; in nearly every sense it is highly dependent upon imports. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 5:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-texas-seceded-how-far-up-shit-creek-would-they-be/996644/24 "2024-01-26T05:30:07Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > That is pretty far up shit creek, I would say. Or somewhat reminiscent of how Texas became a Republic and shortly thereafter joined the USA. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 6:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-texas-seceded-how-far-up-shit-creek-would-they-be/996644/25 "2024-01-26T06:22:59Z")
Unless the hypothetical is that it turns into North Korea, self sufficiency in any specific raw material or industry would not be much more relevant after secession than it is now. You’d see a more extreme version of the kind of issues that the UK had with Brexit, working out arrangements for trade across what is now an international border. Certainly some economic contraction. But any journey further up shit creek would only derive from a political crisis so drastic that the borders were _closed_ to trade. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 6:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-texas-seceded-how-far-up-shit-creek-would-they-be/996644/26 "2024-01-26T06:30:12Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > The United States tried to annex the Philippines as a ‘spoil-of-war’ from the Spanish-American War but there was never any broad consensus to integrate the Philippines as a US territory and significant domestic anti-imperialist objection. Yeah, the intention was never to keep it. Size of Texas state guard-= 1,678 men Size of US Armed service= 1.4 million. ---
**Author:** ![Beckdawrek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beckdawrek/32/3647_2.png) [@Beckdawrek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beckdawrek)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 7:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-texas-seceded-how-far-up-shit-creek-would-they-be/996644/27 "2024-01-26T07:00:45Z")
I don’t know. There’s a zillion guns and shooters in Texas and lots of places to hide. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 7:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-texas-seceded-how-far-up-shit-creek-would-they-be/996644/29 "2024-01-26T07:32:01Z")
Sure. 🙄 ---
**Author:** ![Dereknocue67](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/6de8d8/32.png) [@Dereknocue67](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dereknocue67)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 8:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-texas-seceded-how-far-up-shit-creek-would-they-be/996644/30 "2024-01-26T08:25:52Z")
Texas would be just fine . . . until the next hurricane, especially one moving up the Galveston Waterway into the port. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 9:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-texas-seceded-how-far-up-shit-creek-would-they-be/996644/31 "2024-01-26T09:09:36Z")
Didn’t Britain have a similar discussion just a coupla years ago? They stood up, stood proud, and resisted tyranny. They broke off, and kinda-sorta sealed their border . Because they didn’t want to submit to woke liberal Belgians tellin’ 'em how bendy their bananas had to be, or how much cocoa was required in a chocolate bar. I actually thought Brexit would be a disaster, but somehow life has carried on. But then, unlike Texas, the Brits are polite…and they ain’t got no guns at home. And they speak with such nice accents. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 11:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-texas-seceded-how-far-up-shit-creek-would-they-be/996644/32 "2024-01-26T11:09:56Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > But then, unlike Texas, the Brits are polite…and they ain’t got no guns at home. And they speak with such nice accents. “Everyone and their mums is packing around here.” There are guns in Britain, they just keep a good eye on ‘em. Would Texas have to make their own money and passports? And I guess the Coast Guard would get kicked out too. ---
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 12:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-texas-seceded-how-far-up-shit-creek-would-they-be/996644/33 "2024-01-26T12:03:22Z")
They would appoint trump president of Texas, the money from Russia would flow in and so they would probably be considered a very hostile nation on our border before long. ---
**Author:** ![kferr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/71e660/32.png) [@kferr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kferr)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-texas-seceded-how-far-up-shit-creek-would-they-be/996644/34 "2024-01-26T13:35:00Z")
> [@Mama\_Zappa](#): > > What about the retirees on Social Security? Do they still get to collect? (I gather you can still collect SS if you live in another country, as long as you don’t renounce citizenship). At a minimum, there would be delays - and Medicare doesn’t cover much if any treatment outside the US. Nitpick - you can still collect SS if you live in another country and renounce citizenship. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-texas-seceded-how-far-up-shit-creek-would-they-be/996644/35 "2024-01-26T13:54:15Z")
If Texas successfully seceded, in very short order: 1. Drug cartels would control a third of the state 2. The energy grid would collapse at the first hurricane or heavy winter storm 3. Internal civil war would be raging over all sorts of issues 4. Total collapse into anarchy and warlordism with 18 months. Cannibalism within 2 years. Let them go. HBO needs new programming. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-texas-seceded-how-far-up-shit-creek-would-they-be/996644/36 "2024-01-26T13:54:19Z")
Mexico invades, and takes it back. Tough noogies for the Texians–they get booted. 🤠 ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-texas-seceded-how-far-up-shit-creek-would-they-be/996644/37 "2024-01-26T14:03:40Z")
> [@Mama\_Zappa](#): > > People who are living in low-income housing (e.g. Section 8 and the like) suddenly no longer have subsidies. I have limited faith in the Texas legislature’s willingness to make up the difference. I think this would be the biggest problem - their leadership. There are lots of places in the world that have access to natural resources, large populations, education, and all that, but they’re still complete messes because their leadership is either incompetent, corrupt, or whole beholden to some kind of ideology that makes them screw everything up. A Texas run by serious people, with an honest desire to build a working society, could do quite well for itself. But a Texas run by the sort of people who would push for an independent Texas? Not so much. We’ve already seen how well they do with things like power interruptions, and it’s not good. Their current leaders are incompetent, corrupt and blinded by religious and right-wing ideology. That’s why this plan would fail. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-texas-seceded-how-far-up-shit-creek-would-they-be/996644/38 "2024-01-26T15:01:48Z")
Texas secessionists are firstly intent on seizing and maintaining conservative power no matter how many moderates and liberals inhabit the state. The legislative design in the proposed constitution is very clear about this. So an independent Texas would be an economically unstable republic governed by a hard right minority with its hands full repressing its numerically superior political opposition. That sounds like a bad neighbor and an even worse place to be. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-texas-seceded-how-far-up-shit-creek-would-they-be/996644/39 "2024-01-26T16:19:05Z")
> [@Mama\_Zappa](#): > > I was all set to jump in with the old trope “Texas gets way more money from the Federal government than they pay in taxes” but some googling suggests that this is not, in fact, true. Texas got [$36 billion more from the federal government](https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-taxes-federal-services-difference-by-state-2019-1#alabama-1) in one recent year than it paid in taxes. One third of the state budget comes from federal funds. So Texans would have to dig a lot deeper to pay taxes to support services, or see those services decline markedly. The question of how a seceding state would fund disaster relief and rebuilding came up back when some Californians had the dopey idea of seceding. California is arguably more susceptibie than Texas to costly “natural” diseasters (i.e. earthquakes as well as storms, drought and fires), but Texas would still be hit hard in the wallet if it had to pay for relief and reconstruction by itself. For instance, most of the $29 billion in available Hurricane Harvey-related aid came from Uncle Sam. The negative impacts of secession would far outweigh any “benefits”. It’s not going to happen. ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-texas-seceded-how-far-up-shit-creek-would-they-be/996644/40 "2024-01-26T16:48:16Z")
> [@Jackmannii](#): > > The negative impacts of secession would far outweigh any “benefits”. > > It’s not going to happen. Never underestimate the power of owning the libs, even if it involves shooting one’s self in the foot. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2024, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-texas-seceded-how-far-up-shit-creek-would-they-be/996644/41 "2024-01-26T16:55:41Z")
> [@Jackmannii](#): > > Texas got [$36 billion more from the federal government](https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-taxes-federal-services-difference-by-state-2019-1#alabama-1) in one recent year than it paid in taxes. One third of the state budget comes from federal funds. It’s worse than that. As noted above, there are a lot of military bases in the state, and those aren’t counted in these money-in vs money-out comparisons. And those bases are basically funded by an indirect transfer via the US defense budget, with the nearby communities heavily dependent on them for revenue. San Antonio would basically be hollowed out if those bases shut down. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-texas-seceded-how-far-up-shit-creek-would-they-be/996644.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-texas-seceded-how-far-up-shit-creek-would-they-be/996644.md?page=3)