# If Thad Cochran is too sick to run for reelection in 2018, is Mississippis senate seat in play **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 16, 2017, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-thad-cochran-is-too-sick-to-run-for-reelection-in-2018-is-mississippis-senate-seat-in-play/804607 "2017-12-16T04:15:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-thad-cochran-is-too-sick-to-run-for-reelection-in-2018-is-mississippis-senate-seat-in-play/804607/41 "2018-03-14T21:31:05Z")
McCrazypants is dropping out of the race for Wicker’s seat to run for Cochran’s seat instead. This ain’t good. Running with no incumbent gives him an easier route to D.C… ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-thad-cochran-is-too-sick-to-run-for-reelection-in-2018-is-mississippis-senate-seat-in-play/804607/42 "2018-03-15T13:58:29Z")
The Votemaster has some relevant commentary on the situation: [http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2018/Senate/Maps/Mar15.html#item-6](http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2018/Senate/Maps/Mar15.html#item-6). Bottom line is that anything is possible. > [@](#): > > One Democrat, state House Minority Leader David Baria, has already announced a run against Wicker, but he could also switch to the special election. If he does and the top two finishers are McDaniel and Baria, the GOP will be in deep doodoo. McDaniel is about as far to the right as Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore (albeit, without having molested any teenage girls). Nevertheless, he has a different problem: demographics. Alabama is 25% black but Mississippi is 37% black. If nearly all those black voters show up and vote for Baria, and Baria wins the suburban white vote, he might actually be able to win. When Republicans have to sweat Mississippi, they have a problem worse than PA-18. (V) ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2018, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-thad-cochran-is-too-sick-to-run-for-reelection-in-2018-is-mississippis-senate-seat-in-play/804607/43 "2018-03-20T20:22:47Z")
And the plot thickens. Word is that Gov. Bryant is going to appoint current Agriculture Commissioner Cindy Hyde-Smith to fill Cochran’s seat until the election in November. She’ll be Mississippi’s first female senator. McCrazypants and his backers are rumored to be furious… ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2018, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-thad-cochran-is-too-sick-to-run-for-reelection-in-2018-is-mississippis-senate-seat-in-play/804607/44 "2018-03-26T17:07:13Z")
There are lots of rumors about a new candidate about to enter on the Dem side. His name is Jason Shelton, currently the Mayor of Tupelo. If he runs, he may shake things up in a major way. The scuttlebutt is that McCrazypants will win the GOP nomination, which may set up a Roy Moore/Doug Jones style general election…with talk of up to $100 Million being poured into the state from PACs on both sides. ---
**Author:** ![MandaJo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac91a4/32.png) [@MandaJo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MandaJo)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2018, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-thad-cochran-is-too-sick-to-run-for-reelection-in-2018-is-mississippis-senate-seat-in-play/804607/45 "2018-03-26T17:59:45Z")
> [@Oakminster](#): > > There are lots of rumors about a new candidate about to enter on the Dem side. His name is Jason Shelton, currently the Mayor of Tupelo. If he runs, he may shake things up in a major way. The scuttlebutt is that McCrazypants will win the GOP nomination, which may set up a Roy Moore/Doug Jones style general election…with talk of up to $100 Million being poured into the state from PACs on both sides. I’m not sure what one would spend $100m on in Mississippi. Airtime must be stupid cheap. ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-thad-cochran-is-too-sick-to-run-for-reelection-in-2018-is-mississippis-senate-seat-in-play/804607/46 "2018-03-27T02:35:42Z")
> [@MandaJo](#): > > I’m not sure what one would spend $100m on in Mississippi. Airtime must be stupid cheap. Yes and no. The campaigns all want to be in the most expensive slots–during the news, in prime time, or during major sporting events. And the $100 million estimate is total spending by all players–in two contested senate races. There are some rumors that Mississippi might decide control of the senate if one of the seats goes blue…and that’s the draw for outside money. Normally, the Dems don’t send national money to Mississippi, so the GOP doesn’t send much, either. This year is different. Especially if Shelton qualifies. He’s a Dem that won the Mayor’s race in a landslide his first term, and without serious opposition in his second term…in Lee County, which is generally about as red as it is possible for a county to be. He’s more charismatic than Brandon Presley (Cousin of Elvis, mentioned above), and a much better speaker. He was an excellent trial lawyer before going into politics. And if McCrazypants tries to debate Shelton, he’ll leave with his tail between his legs. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-thad-cochran-is-too-sick-to-run-for-reelection-in-2018-is-mississippis-senate-seat-in-play/804607/47 "2018-03-27T15:25:24Z")
> [@Oakminster](#): > > The scuttlebutt is that McCrazypants will win the GOP nomination, which may set up a Roy Moore/Doug Jones style general election…with talk of up to $100 Million being poured into the state from PACs on both sides. There is no GOP nomination to get. From the 538 article linked above… > [@](#): > > Under Mississippi law, Republican Gov. Phil Bryant will appoint a new senator to take over for Cochran until a special election is held this November (concurrently with the regularly scheduled midterm elections). There is a catch, though: Special elections in Mississippi are nonpartisan; that is, party affiliations aren’t printed on the ballot, and — instead of party-specific primaries — all candidates will run in one free-for-all of a race. If no one gets a majority of the vote in the first round, the top two finishers will face off in a runoff election. ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-thad-cochran-is-too-sick-to-run-for-reelection-in-2018-is-mississippis-senate-seat-in-play/804607/48 "2018-03-27T16:42:23Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > There is no GOP nomination to get. From the 538 article linked above… Wow. Did not know that. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-thad-cochran-is-too-sick-to-run-for-reelection-in-2018-is-mississippis-senate-seat-in-play/804607/49 "2018-03-27T17:21:58Z")
If party affiliation isn’t printed on the ballot, then that’s going to make name recognition a huge factor, and provides the opportunity for ad campaigns to sway a lot of voters. In the broadcast media, you run a lot of ads talking about how great your candidate is, without ever mentioning your party or any of the other candidates. In targeted ads that you think will mostly be seen by people of your party, you mention party. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-thad-cochran-is-too-sick-to-run-for-reelection-in-2018-is-mississippis-senate-seat-in-play/804607/50 "2018-03-27T18:37:43Z")
On thinking about this some more: It seems to me that it might be optimal to have two (and exactly two) viable candidates in the first election. There are three ways to win, each with its own strategies: 1: Win outright on the first ballot, by getting an absolute majority 2: Get one guy to finish in the top two, and then win the runoff 3: Take both of the top two spots, and then be happy no matter how the runoff goes Strategy 1 is hurt (but not completely ruled out) by running a second candidate. For strategy 2, it probably doesn’t matter, since whichever of your candidates is stronger will probably get the second place finish. And strategy 3 absolutely requires that you have two candidates (at least, but there’s probably no advantage to having more). Meanwhile, strategy 3 is the only one that can actually overcome a partisan voting deficit, if the other party is sufficiently less disciplined than you: You could, for instance, get two Democrats each taking 20% of the vote, while four Republicans each take 15%, and thus end up with a Democrat winning despite the Republicans as a whole being up by 20 points. ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2018, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-thad-cochran-is-too-sick-to-run-for-reelection-in-2018-is-mississippis-senate-seat-in-play/804607/51 "2018-03-28T17:57:14Z")
And now I’m hearing about another potential candidate. I can’t name him yet, but he would be well funded and a serious contender as well. This election is going to be highly entertaining one way or the other. ---
**Author:** ![Chisquirrel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6bbea6/32.png) [@Chisquirrel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chisquirrel)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2018, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-thad-cochran-is-too-sick-to-run-for-reelection-in-2018-is-mississippis-senate-seat-in-play/804607/52 "2018-03-28T18:25:57Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > On thinking about this some more: It seems to me that it might be optimal to have two (and exactly two) viable candidates in the first election. There are three ways to win, each with its own strategies: > > 1: Win outright on the first ballot, by getting an absolute majority > 2: Get one guy to finish in the top two, and then win the runoff > 3: Take both of the top two spots, and then be happy no matter how the runoff goes > > Strategy 1 is hurt (but not completely ruled out) by running a second candidate. For strategy 2, it probably doesn’t matter, since whichever of your candidates is stronger will probably get the second place finish. And strategy 3 absolutely requires that you have two candidates (at least, but there’s probably no advantage to having more). Meanwhile, strategy 3 is the only one that can actually overcome a partisan voting deficit, if the other party is sufficiently less disciplined than you: You could, for instance, get two Democrats each taking 20% of the vote, while four Republicans each take 15%, and thus end up with a Democrat winning despite the Republicans as a whole being up by 20 points. Strategy 3 also works if you can focus on different types of voters, like gun control. You have Candidate #1, a Republican with crappy economic messaging but pro-gun. Candidate #2A, a Democrat with great economic ideas but pro-control. Candidate #2B, a Democrat with middling economic ideas, but also pro-gun. Democrats will vote for 2A, while some Republicans might be forced to choose between 1 and 2B - gun control is their number one issue, and 2B’s other views make them more appealing than 1, who’s been able to skate by on “THEY’LL TAKE YUR GUNZ!” for the past four cycles. ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2018, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-thad-cochran-is-too-sick-to-run-for-reelection-in-2018-is-mississippis-senate-seat-in-play/804607/53 "2018-04-03T16:49:59Z")
Jason Shelton formally announced this morning, which means the other potential candidate I mentioned above will not be running–and will likely support Shelton financially and otherwise. I’m cautiously optimistic. Shelton is not vulnerable to the “they’ll take your guns” attack. He was a great trial lawyer, is charismatic, smart, hard working. It will be a nasty race, and Shelton has a couple of skeletons in the closet–but so does McCrazypants. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2018, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-thad-cochran-is-too-sick-to-run-for-reelection-in-2018-is-mississippis-senate-seat-in-play/804607/54 "2018-04-03T18:17:07Z")
> [@Oakminster](#): > > Word is that Gov. Bryant is going to appoint current Agriculture Commissioner Cindy Hyde-Smith to fill Cochran’s seat until the election in November. And [he has made it so](http://www.wapt.com/article/bryant-sets-date-for-us-senate-special-election/19671448). Looks like former Rep. (and former Secretary of Agriculture) [Mike Espy will be running too](https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2018/03/10/can-mike-espy-win-thad-cochran-senate-seat/410369002/). ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2018, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-thad-cochran-is-too-sick-to-run-for-reelection-in-2018-is-mississippis-senate-seat-in-play/804607/55 "2018-04-03T19:32:19Z")
What happened to Sela Ward’s husband? Oh, he’s running for Wicker’s seat. For real. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2018, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-thad-cochran-is-too-sick-to-run-for-reelection-in-2018-is-mississippis-senate-seat-in-play/804607/56 "2018-04-03T20:38:53Z")
the state is 37% black and can’t elect a Dem to a statewide office. I guess the issue is turnout ? ---
**Author:** ![Folacin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folacin/32/3195_2.png) [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2018, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-thad-cochran-is-too-sick-to-run-for-reelection-in-2018-is-mississippis-senate-seat-in-play/804607/57 "2018-04-03T21:15:25Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > the state is 37% black and can’t elect a Dem to a statewide office. I guess the issue is turnout ? Turnout, general voter suppression and presumably a significant portion of the African-American population is ineligible because of low-level felony convictions - which as I understand is a problem in much of the US and more so in the South. ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2018, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-thad-cochran-is-too-sick-to-run-for-reelection-in-2018-is-mississippis-senate-seat-in-play/804607/58 "2018-04-03T21:53:40Z")
> [@Folacin](#): > > Turnout, general voter suppression and presumably a significant portion of the African-American population is ineligible because of low-level felony convictions - which as I understand is a problem in much of the US and more so in the South. Money is a huge problem. The national party appears to have largely written off Mississippi as virtually unwinnable, and does little to support local candidates. That killed Travis Childers’ chances to keep a house seat he held briefly. This year may be different. Shelton has some connections to the national party. I think they’ll help him. I hope so. ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-thad-cochran-is-too-sick-to-run-for-reelection-in-2018-is-mississippis-senate-seat-in-play/804607/59 "2018-04-04T02:15:59Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > the state is 37% black and can’t elect a Dem to a statewide office. I guess the issue is turnout ? The issue is that the Democrats are the Party of Black People and the Republicans are the Party of White People, with very little crossover (except for weird academic transplants like me) and few swing voters. This is changing a bit among the younger generation, but most of them leave the state after they graduate. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 5:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-thad-cochran-is-too-sick-to-run-for-reelection-in-2018-is-mississippis-senate-seat-in-play/804607/60 "2018-04-04T05:10:40Z")
> [@Fretful\_Porpentine](#): > > The issue is that the Democrats are the Party of Black People and the Republicans are the Party of White People, with very little crossover (except for weird academic transplants like me) and few swing voters. This is changing a bit among the younger generation, but most of them leave the state after they graduate. Actually, no. Democrats are still a majority-white party, they’re just vastly more diverse than Republicans, who are overwhelmingly white (by over 6-to-1). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-thad-cochran-is-too-sick-to-run-for-reelection-in-2018-is-mississippis-senate-seat-in-play/804607.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-thad-cochran-is-too-sick-to-run-for-reelection-in-2018-is-mississippis-senate-seat-in-play/804607.md?page=4)