# If the Election were held tomorrow, and McCain won **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 20, 2008, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777 "2008-10-20T19:34:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/21 "2008-10-20T21:14:42Z")
Sigh and go about my life. I consider it quite likely that McCain will win, between our Republican-corrupted voting system and America’s racism and stupidity. Regardless of what the polls say; the polls don’t account for liars and election fraud. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/22 "2008-10-20T21:16:46Z")
Would you be willing to bet? 😛 (I know…you aren’t. It was a rhetorical question) -XT ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/23 "2008-10-20T21:22:55Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Would you be willing to bet? 😛 > > (I know…you aren’t. It was a rhetorical question) And to answer, no, I never bet. On anything, regardless of how certain I am; and in any case it would be silly to put money on a bet I’d hope to lose. Setting it up so I lose either way ? No thanks. ---
**Author:** ![An\_Arky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/87869e/32.png) [@An\_Arky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/An_Arky)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/24 "2008-10-20T21:30:44Z")
Go on with life, my ass. I’d be out there busting windows and setting fire to valued national treasures until this obvious subversion of democracy got reversed. I’d steal a cropduster and Agent Orange Diebold HQ. Well, OK, I probably can’t do all of that, but I’d be pissed and act on it any way I can get away with. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/25 "2008-10-20T21:33:37Z")
I would sigh heavily and remember that in (my own lifetime) in 1960, 1968, 1976, 1992, 2000 and 2004 there were last minute shifts in popularity that made the polls essentially useless in terms of predicting a winner. ---
**Author:** ![RandMcnally](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b782af/32.png) [@RandMcnally](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RandMcnally)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/26 "2008-10-20T21:36:03Z")
I’d say, “Well would you look at that?” Then go on with trying to pick my classes for next semester. ---
**Author:** ![ivylass](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/9de053/32.png) [@ivylass](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivylass)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/27 "2008-10-20T22:06:42Z")
> [@Frylock](#): > > Suppose the polling situation on Nov 3rd is basically the same as it is today. And suppose on Nov 4th, the election is held and McCain wins. > > What do you do? > > -FrL- Breathe a huge sigh of relief. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2008, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/28 "2008-10-20T22:12:05Z")
> [@Frylock](#): > > Suppose the polling situation on Nov 3rd is basically the same as it is today. And suppose on Nov 4th, the election is held and McCain wins. > > What do you do? > > -FrL- Get really upset and swear a lot and rant about doing someting about it and then probably doing nothing and going to work. ---
**Author:** ![interface2x](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c0e974/32.png) [@interface2x](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/interface2x)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/29 "2008-10-21T00:26:51Z")
I survived a Bush reelection. I could handle this, I guess. But a soon-following McCain death and its accompanying Palin presidency? Yikes. See ya in France. ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/30 "2008-10-21T00:34:58Z")
In this order: 1. Say “Damn, damn, DAMN!!” like Florida on _Good Times_ 2. Cry 3. Throw something. 4. Curse some more. 5. Call in sick. 6. Curl up in bed and convince myself it’s all a bad dream Then I’d carry on like a good American. But I’d be extremely angry and disillusioned. It would take a while before I could watch the news. ---
**Author:** ![Frylock](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/ce7236/32.png) [@Frylock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frylock)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/31 "2008-10-21T00:39:43Z")
> [@kunilou](#): > > I would sigh heavily and remember that in (my own lifetime) in 1960, 1968, 1976, 1992, 2000 and 2004 there were last minute shifts in popularity that made the polls essentially useless in terms of predicting a winner. Where can I find information about that? -FrL- ---
**Author:** ![Rand\_Rover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/db5fbb/32.png) [@Rand\_Rover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rand_Rover)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/32 "2008-10-21T02:11:35Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Ask for a recount. Last time I checked Obama was ahead in most of the key battle ground states and actually had a theoretical ‘win’ in the EC based on the polls. So…if McCain somehow won I’d have to say, today, that I’d agree with the folks who would be screaming about election fraud. I’d want to see exactly WHY he won…or perhaps more importantly HOW he won. With a fine tooth comb. This is why this will be probably the most contentious election ever. People believe these poll results like gospel when there are lots of reasons not to (like (i) the results are heavily influenced by the questions asked, (ii) polls don’t give a “none of the above” option or ask how strongly people feel about their opinions, so it artificially pushes people to one side or the other, and (iii) there are issues with how the sample is obtained and whether party weighting is a good idea). RCP shows Obama up 5.2 or so today, which is only 2 points outside the margin of error, but everyone’s acting like he’s so far up. The litigation and bickering after this election if McCain wins will be horrible. ---
**Author:** ![MEBuckner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mebuckner/32/2896_2.png) [@MEBuckner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MEBuckner)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/33 "2008-10-21T02:41:34Z")
> [@Rand\_Rover](#): > > RCP shows Obama up 5.2 or so today, which is only 2 points outside the margin of error, but everyone’s acting like he’s so far up. The litigation and bickering after this election if McCain wins will be horrible. As we were all reminded in 2000, the national popular vote doesn’t mean jack shit. [Electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com/) for today shows Obama up by at least 10% in states with a total of 264 electoral votes (versus McCain’s “strong suport” in states with 137 electoral votes); Obama is ahead by 5% to 9% in states with another 22 electoral votes–which means, if the polls are correct and nothing changes, President Obama. Throw in another 78 electoral votes from states where Obama is just barely ahead (really, in terms of the margin of error, they’re ties); even if he only winds up winning half of those states, that’s still a comfortable margin of victory for him. Put it another way, McCain has to win over every single state that isn’t currently polling as pretty much rock-solid for Obama (including states that are really outside the margin of error, meaning the polls have to be actually wrong in some way other than the usual uncertainties of sampling, or McCain has to change minds between now and the election). Obama only has to win the states he’s comforably ahead in and one or at most two of the weakly blue, barely blue, tied, or marginally red states. Of course the polls _could_ be wrong this year. But they could just as easily be wrong in Obama’s favor: I strongly suspect black voters will turnout in higher than historically normal numbers, the question really being by just how much more than normal (and blacks have gone heavily Democratic even in past elections, let along this one); and Obama may actually succeed in getting the [del]young whippersnapper[/del] 18-to-20something voters to actually turn out in haflway decent numbers (and to vote for him). ---
**Author:** ![Rand\_Rover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/db5fbb/32.png) [@Rand\_Rover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rand_Rover)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/34 "2008-10-21T02:49:41Z")
> [@MEBuckner](#): > > As we were all reminded in 2000, the national popular vote doesn’t mean jack shit. > > [Electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com/) for today shows Obama up by at least 10% in states with a total of 264 electoral votes (versus McCain’s “strong suport” in states with 137 electoral votes); Obama is ahead by 5% to 9% in states with another 22 electoral votes–which means, if the polls are correct and nothing changes, President Obama. Throw in another 78 electoral votes from states where Obama is just barely ahead (really, in terms of the margin of error, they’re ties); even if he only winds up winning half of those states, that’s still a comfortable margin of victory for him. > > Put it another way, McCain has to win over every single state that isn’t currently polling as pretty much rock-solid for Obama (including states that are really outside the margin of error, meaning the polls have to be actually wrong in some way other than the usual uncertainties of sampling, or McCain has to change minds between now and the election). Obama only has to win the states he’s comforably ahead in and one or at most two of the weakly blue, barely blue, tied, or marginally red states. > > Of course the polls _could_ be wrong this year. But they could just as easily be wrong in Obama’s favor: I strongly suspect black voters will turnout in higher than historically normal numbers, the question really being by just how much more than normal (and blacks have gone heavily Democratic even in past elections, let along this one); and Obama may actually succeed in getting the [del]young whippersnapper[/del] 18-to-20something voters to actually turn out in haflway decent numbers (and to vote for him). All good points, but those numbers are just based on statewide polls, so they are still subject to the same criticisms as nationwide polls. I almost hope Obama wins just so I don’t have to live through the bickering mess (on these here boards and IRL) that will result when people feel that the Republicans “must” have done something for Obama to lose with those poll numbers. And I’m just about sick to death of hearing about the “Bradley Effect” (but the WSJ had a good editorial on it today arguing that the other guy just changed his campaign and hit the right message at the last minute to pull voters to his side, so there really was’nt widespread voting booth racism). ---
**Author:** ![flickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7bcc69/32.png) [@flickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flickster)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/35 "2008-10-21T03:00:46Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > If McCain won with the same polling as today, that’d be more like evidence of massive voter fraud than racism. > > Note that there aren’t racists out there, but _damn_ few of them would be voting for a Democrat with a Liberal platform in any case. I find it amusing that one would not suspect fraud in the polling results instead. ---
**Author:** ![MEBuckner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mebuckner/32/2896_2.png) [@MEBuckner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MEBuckner)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/36 "2008-10-21T03:03:09Z")
> [@Rand\_Rover](#): > > All good points, but those numbers are just based on statewide polls, so they are still subject to the same criticisms as nationwide polls. > [@flickster](#): > > I find it amusing that one would not suspect fraud in the polling results instead. We’re talking about multiple polls conducted by a variety of different organizations. ---
**Author:** ![drastic\_quench](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e36b37/32.png) [@drastic\_quench](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drastic_quench)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/37 "2008-10-21T03:05:09Z")
I start practicing pronouncing “house” as “hoose” and send plenty of job applications northward. I stayed through two terms of Bush to tried and do what I could to fix the US, I don’t practice “giving up”, but I’d be damn tempted to cash out. ---
**Author:** ![Rand\_Rover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/db5fbb/32.png) [@Rand\_Rover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rand_Rover)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/38 "2008-10-21T03:06:13Z")
> [@drastic\_quench](#): > > I start practicing pronouncing “house” as “hoose” and send plenty of job applications northward. I stayed through two terms of Bush to tried and do what I could to fix the US, I don’t practice “giving up”, but I’d be damn tempted to cash out. Right. Tell half of Hollywood we said hi. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Rand\_Rover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/db5fbb/32.png) [@Rand\_Rover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rand_Rover)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/39 "2008-10-21T03:08:09Z")
> [@MEBuckner](#): > > We’re talking about multiple polls conducted by a variety of different organizations. Which is exactly how voting is conducted (i.e., in multiple locations by a variety of different organizations using a variety of different technologies). ETA: sorry, this goes to your point about fraud, not to the point you quoted me about. To respond to that, I don’t think any of the nationally reported polls do the things I discussed, so I dont’ see your point. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/40 "2008-10-21T03:08:25Z")
> [@ivylass](#): > > Breathe a huge sigh of relief. I’m honestly curious as to this response. If the election were held with the poll sitting where they are now, and McCain wins, **it’s election fraud**. There is absolutely no reasonable argument to the contrary. Polls have a margin of error, but they’re not that wrong. They can’t blow a bunch of states by ten points. I can understand a McCain supporter wanting McCain to stage a comeback in popularity and win on Nov. 4. And if he makes some dramatic gains that could happen - but the polls would be completely different on November 3 were that to happen. If he’s a point or two behind on November 3 and a lot of states currently leaning OBama are leaning McCain, a McCain victory is no shocker. But if they held the election tomorrow and McCain won, it’s cheating. It’s just not possible for HUNDREDS of well-run polls to be that wrong. One poll, sure. Hundreds, no. It cannot happen. Given that the OP clearly asked how you would react if McCain won with polls as they stand today, which effectively means a fraudulent result, are you actually saying you would find the subversion of American democracy relieving? Or were just generally saying you want McCain to win honestly, and you were disregarding the “polls as of today” qualifier of the OP? I have to admit, I would much rather my man lose an honest election than win by cheating. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777.md?page=3)