# If the Election were held tomorrow, and McCain won **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 20, 2008, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777 "2008-10-20T19:34:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/41 "2008-10-21T03:14:45Z")
> [@Frylock](#): > > Where can I find information about that? > > -FrL- From Wikipedia on the 1960 election: > [@](#): > > As the campaign moved into the final two weeks the polls and most political pundits predicted a Kennedy victory. However, President Eisenhower, who had largely sat out the campaign, made a vigorous campaign tour for Nixon over the last ten days before the election. Eisenhower’s support gave Nixon a badly needed boost, and by election day the polls showed a virtual tie. Op cit, 1968: > [@](#): > > However, the “Halloween Peace” gave Humphrey’s campaign a badly needed boost. In addition, Senator Eugene McCarthy finally endorsed Humphrey in late October after previously refusing to do so, and by election day the polls were reporting a dead heat. 1976: > [@](#): > > After the Democratic National Convention, Carter held a huge 33-point lead over Ford in the polls. However, as the campaign continued the race tightened, and by election day the polls showed the race as too close to call. . . Despite his campaign’s blunders, Ford managed to close the remaining gap in the polls and by election day the race was judged to be even. Election day was November 2, and it took most of that night and the following morning to determine the winner. 1992 > [@](#): > > Bush continued to close the gap into the final week, and had actually fought his way back to a slight lead in some polls, but the campaign took one final twist four days before Election Day with the announcement of the impending indictment of Reagan Defense Secretary Casper Weinberger on charges related to the Iran-Contra Affair, bringing with it an implication of culpability to Bush from his role as Reagan’s Vice President and derailed Bush’s comeback. 2000 > [@](#): > > The Voter News Service’s reputation was damaged by its treatment of Florida’s presidential vote in 2000. Breaking its own guidelines, VNS called the state as a win for Gore 12 minutes before polls closed in the Florida panhandle. Although most of the state is in the Eastern Time Zone, counties in the Florida panhandle, located in the Central Time Zone, had not yet closed its polls. More seriously, inconsistent polling results caused the VNS to change its call twice, first from Gore to Bush, and then to “too close to call”. 2004 from [CNN](http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/31/poll.sunday/index.html) (Date: November 1) > [@](#): > > Bush had leads of 2 points in Iowa and 4 points in Pennsylvania. Kerry had leads of 3 points in Florida and 4 points in Ohio. Bush would win Ohio, Kerry won Pennsylvania. ---
**Author:** ![Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e36b37/32.png) [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airman_Doors_USAF)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/42 "2008-10-21T03:16:32Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > If the election were held with the poll sitting where they are now, and McCain wins, **it’s election fraud**. There is absolutely no reasonable argument to the contrary. Polls have a margin of error, but they’re not that wrong. They can’t blow a bunch of states by ten points. [Sure they can.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect) You may not like it, but [polls have been way off before](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/2/28/Deweytruman12.jpg). ---
**Author:** ![Rand\_Rover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/db5fbb/32.png) [@Rand\_Rover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rand_Rover)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/43 "2008-10-21T03:22:26Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I’m honestly curious as to this response. > > If the election were held with the poll sitting where they are now, and McCain wins, **it’s election fraud**. There is absolutely no reasonable argument to the contrary. Polls have a margin of error, but they’re not that wrong. They can’t blow a bunch of states by ten points. You are simply wrong. Polls do not necessarily measure the thing they are trying to measure because of design flaws in the pools, how they are given, how the sample size is selected, etc. There’s a new book out on this but damned if I an find it right now. The margin of error may be higher on these polls than the polls report, so Obama up by 5 may still be within the margin of error. Also, your attitude is dangerous and is the main reason I may not sleep on election night if Obama doesn’t win (i.e., I may have to stay up late with my buddies Smith and Wesson). ---
**Author:** ![drastic\_quench](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e36b37/32.png) [@drastic\_quench](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drastic_quench)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/44 "2008-10-21T03:23:29Z")
> [@Rand\_Rover](#): > > Right. Tell half of Hollywood we said hi. :rolleyes: I’ll send your rollyeyes a postcard, but I’m pretty damn sure Obama’s a lock. ---
**Author:** ![MEBuckner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mebuckner/32/2896_2.png) [@MEBuckner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MEBuckner)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/45 "2008-10-21T03:30:35Z")
> [@Rand\_Rover](#): > > Which is exactly how voting is conducted (i.e., in multiple locations by a variety of different organizations using a variety of different technologies). And which is why no candidate is going to lose the election if he’s up by 10% in states with 270 electoral votes. Electoral fraud in this country could throw the results of a close-run thing (diddle with the voting machines or ballot boxes in a few crucial precincts in one or a few crucial states); but I don’t believe that anybody could steal a U.S. Presidential election in the face of a blow-out victory from the other side. > [@](#): > > ETA: sorry, this goes to your point about fraud, not to the point you quoted me about. To respond to that, I don’t think any of the nationally reported polls do the things I discussed, so I dont’ see your point. Heh, let’s see: > [@Rand\_Rover](#): > > This is why this will be probably the most contentious election ever. People believe these poll results like gospel when there are lots of reasons not to (like (i) the results are heavily influenced by the questions asked, (ii) polls don’t give a “none of the above” option or ask how strongly people feel about their opinions, so it artificially pushes people to one side or the other, and (iii) there are issues with how the sample is obtained and whether party weighting is a good idea). (i) What questions asked? “So, who ya gonna vote for?” This isn’t like welfare reform (“Do you think hard-working taxpayers should have their money taken and given to able-bodied people who can’t even be bothered to get a job?”/“Do you think mothers of little helpless innocents should have the pittance they need to feed their families taken from them?”) or assault weapons (“Do you think military-style Death Guns specifically designed to mow down large numbers of innocent children should be banned?”/“Do you support a ban on certain guns which are really functionally no different from your Uncle Ned’s huntin’ rifle, just because of the way they look?”) And again, multiple polls by various different organizations; they can’t _all_ be asking voters “So, will you be voting for the Good and Virtuous Obama, or are you a racist bastard who’ll be voting for Wicked and Evil McCain?” (ii) Well, Presidential ballots in this country don’t give a “none of the above” either. Barring maybe a really close analysis of the chads, there’s no way to tell the difference between someone who goes in the voting booth and says “All _RIGHT!!!_” and someone who goes in the voting booth and says “Oh…Geez…Oh, well, what the hell.” There are third-party candidates–my sense is that the Libertarians (presumably taking from the Republicans) will do at least as well this year as the Greens or Ralph Nader (presumably taking from the Democrats); but there is no Ross Perot or John Anderson out there with any real chance of making a major difference in the vote totals. There is the issue of who will actually bother to go and vote. This is the difference between “registered voters” and “likely voters”, something pollsters do struggle with defining. That also gets us into (iii), and I agree that sampling and the issue of party weighting is one where pollsters could easily screw up and skew the results. Again though, are multiple organizations all skewing the results the same direction? And is there reason to believe _a priori_ the results aren’t being skewed away from Obama, and that he won’t actually do better than the polls are projecting? (See above regarding black and young voters.) ---
**Author:** ![Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e36b37/32.png) [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airman_Doors_USAF)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/46 "2008-10-21T03:34:18Z")
> [@Rand\_Rover](#): > > Also, your attitude is dangerous and is the main reason I may not sleep on election night if Obama doesn’t win (i.e., I may have to stay up late with my buddies Smith and Wesson). You’re not doing too well tonight, [I’ve noticed](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=488817). This particular comment doesn’t enhance your credibility, either. I’d thank you not to make absurd and inflammatory statements that characterize gun owners as lunatics and/or paranoids. We get enough of that around here without someone saying something like this and feeding the fire. ---
**Author:** ![Raygun99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/6f9a4e/32.png) [@Raygun99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Raygun99)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/47 "2008-10-21T03:39:52Z")
> [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](#): > > [Sure they can.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect) An effect that has been called into severe question in recent weeks, and repudiated by pollsters who were actually involved in the race. > [@](#): > > You may not like it, but [polls have been way off before](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/2/28/Deweytruman12.jpg). Which is one of the more famous results of incompetent sampling in polls. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/48 "2008-10-21T04:16:09Z")
> [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](#): > > [Sure they can.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect) > > You may not like it, but [polls have been way off before](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/2/28/Deweytruman12.jpg). Please, Airman. The way polls were conducted in 1948 is about as relevant to the way they’re conducted to today as 15th century alchemy is to modern, peer-reviewed science. Today’s polling methods are, on the whole, highly accurate. Taking the totality of all results of polls to date, one can be confident beyond any reasonable doubt that Obama is legitimately winning. That may not be the case on November 3 - a lot can happen in two weeks - but it absolutely is today. But let me rephrase the question. Suppose McCain has another weekus horribilis like he did the week of Spetember 15 and his poll numbers absolutely crater; I’m talking Nixon-McGovern 1972. On November 3, Obama has a 19-point lead, 375 EVs in the bag, and McCain isn’t actually solid in any state in the union. Texas is going to be a fifty-fifty thing. In fact, McCain stopped campaigning four days before the election - and on election day, in defiance of exit polls as well, McCain wins. What would your reaction be? What would **ivylass** do? ---
**Author:** ![Duckster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duckster/32/1244_2.png) [@Duckster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duckster)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/49 "2008-10-21T04:23:49Z")
> [@spoke-](#): > > March on Diebold headquarters? And find an empty office. They changed their name to [Premier Election Solutions](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_Election_Solutions) in 2007. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/50 "2008-10-21T04:28:36Z")
I seem to recall that intrade puts McCain at 15%, while [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com) has him at 6%. Neither of those figures is less than 1%. McCain could win. It’s not probable, but an Obama victory is simply not a sure thing. And while the polls interview thousands of Americans, the sample of relevant American elections that we’re working off of is necessarily small. The OP: Many would suspect voting fraud. Coming after the stolen election of 2000, I posit that if McCain emerges as victor, half the country will go insane. ---
**Author:** ![Sampiro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/2acd7d/32.png) [@Sampiro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sampiro)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 6:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/51 "2008-10-21T06:30:34Z")
I’d go over to Ayers’s house to console Obama, then go bomb some abandoned buildings or something. I don’t really have the liberty to leave the country (at least not without living in physical fear for my safety and we’re not there yet- we’re saving that for President Palin). I’d bitch, moan, whine, and complain, and possibly at some point move to a battleground state. ---
**Author:** ![Desert\_Nomad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desert_nomad/32/177_2.png) [@Desert\_Nomad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Desert_Nomad)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 6:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/52 "2008-10-21T06:39:03Z")
> [@Frylock](#): > > Suppose the polling situation on Nov 3rd is basically the same as it is today. And suppose on Nov 4th, the election is held and McCain wins. > > What do you do? > > -FrL- Well, it’d mean I am not coming back to America for at least 4 more years, so I would call and cancel the flight I have booked on the 6th of November. I’d also call the real estate agent I have been working with and tell her we are not going to be buying the house anytime soon. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/53 "2008-10-21T12:43:11Z")
> [@Duckster](#): > > And find an empty office. They changed their name to [Premier Election Solutions](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_Election_Solutions) in 2007. Tricky bastards! ---
**Author:** ![Rand\_Rover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/db5fbb/32.png) [@Rand\_Rover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rand_Rover)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/54 "2008-10-21T14:07:39Z")
> [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](#): > > You’re not doing too well tonight, [I’ve noticed](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=488817). This particular comment doesn’t enhance your credibility, either. I’d thank you not to make absurd and inflammatory statements that characterize gun owners as lunatics and/or paranoids. We get enough of that around here without someone saying something like this and feeding the fire. Well, that was a little hyperbolic (is that a word?) I’ll admit. I’m a gun owner, and I don’t think I’m a lunatic or paranoid. I just see all of this “Obama already won” sentiment, and I hope it doesn’t erupt into violence if that turns out not to be the case. There are some extremely violent elements on the left (i.e., the far left, people who think the Democrats are too right wing). Witness the masked individuals blocking Palin’s motorcade as a recent example. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/55 "2008-10-21T14:28:15Z")
There are nutjobs on both ends of the political spectrum. Those on the Right tend to be more likely to have guns, though. Neither Obama or McCain has a lock. Partisans of each should keep working hard to win, and neither be overconfident and slack off, nor despair and give up. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/56 "2008-10-21T16:23:28Z")
> [@Rand\_Rover](#): > > Which is exactly how voting is conducted (i.e., in multiple locations by a variety of different organizations using a variety of different technologies). > > ETA: sorry, this goes to your point about fraud, not to the point you quoted me about. To respond to that, I don’t think any of the nationally reported polls do the things I discussed, so I dont’ see your point. Except that they could just fudge things in Fla and Ohio,etc. Each State conducts it’s elections the same way state-wide ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2008, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/57 "2008-10-21T21:47:47Z")
> [@Rand\_Rover](#): > > There are some extremely violent elements on the left (i.e., the far left, people who think the Democrats are too right wing). Witness the masked individuals blocking Palin’s motorcade as a recent example. That’s your idea of “extremely violent” ? People who endanger **themselves**? This is more violent than people who beat gays to death or murder doctors who perform abortions or who blow up federal buildings how ? And you think the “far left” consists of most of the industrialized world ? ---
**Author:** ![Bootis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e8c25b/32.png) [@Bootis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bootis)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2008, 8:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/58 "2008-10-22T08:05:23Z")
I agree that if the election were held today and McCain won, it would most definitely be fraud. Obama leads in every reputable poll. Literally dozens of them. Most by a substantial margin. But electorally it is more substantial, as others have demonstrated upthread. And again, these numbers are the averages of all the polls. Statistitians are putting McCain’s chances around 3-10% _taking into account the polls could change from now till election day_. I would bet they’d all say McCain’s chances if held today would be 0%. I have a feeling some people would still say it was the polls that were wrong even if they all had Obama with a 90 point lead but McCain won. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2008, 8:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777/59 "2008-10-22T08:19:28Z")
One the one hand, I’d be furious. In 2006 I saw my county clerk simply fail to deliver enough ballots to one precinct for no clear reason. I expect GOP chicanery out of sheer habit. Then I’d cackle in glee. With Mac in, the Religious Right would have every expectation of getting another pro-life (pro-business, anti-environment) justice on SCOTUS. And a GOP President & his sycophantic “opposition” (Pelosi’s probably still around in this scenario) would get the full fallout from Bushco. Paulson [del]might have to scramble to change course & not screw the country over[/del] would continue to get all he can for Goldman Sachs in his lame duck 75 days (what does he care about the party?), & McCain would see his government fall down around his ears. Death of the GOP, baby. This Will Hurt. Like a rusted spike in the eye. Probably our best hope for a total leftist revolution. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow-and-mccain-won/468777.md?page=2)