# If the NSA/ATF/FBI had existed pre-civil war, could they have prevented it? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 26, 2013, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-nsa-atf-fbi-had-existed-pre-civil-war-could-they-have-prevented-it/677187 "2013-12-26T02:49:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Habeed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a587f6/32.png) [@Habeed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Habeed)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2013, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-nsa-atf-fbi-had-existed-pre-civil-war-could-they-have-prevented-it/677187/1 "2013-12-26T02:49:31Z")
Hypothetical scenario : The NSA, ATF, and FBI all existed before the civil war, and through a network of informants and very advanced techniques, they had the same information on their citizens that those agencies have now. That is, it’s the 1850s, and all the technology is the same, but somehow the NSA knows about every single letter written anywhere in the country (they only know who it was sent between unless fill out a FISA form). They know about every conversation that occurs between any two people they care to tap. (equivalent to today where unless you hold the conversation in person, they can probably tap it) Anyways, they tell the FBI and ATF what they find out. The ATF has the authority to regulate what it does today, and can go after all those illegal owners of “assault cannon” who don’t have the proper paperwork. The FBI has similar jurisdiction and resources to today, although, of course they have 1850s tech otherwise. How many people, thereabouts, would they have needed to arrest and send to jail to stop the entire war cold? Assume these agencies have similar power to today, where they can arrest someone, charge them in a court of convenience, and have them tried by a jury in a Union state with a 97% conviction rate. Also, they have “mandatory minimums” for rebel activity… ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2013, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-nsa-atf-fbi-had-existed-pre-civil-war-could-they-have-prevented-it/677187/2 "2013-12-26T03:28:49Z")
I’d doubt it. It wasn’t like the secession was some secret conspiracy. The secessionists were pretty open about what they were doing and they appear to have had widespread support. And the Buchanan was about as ineffective in a crisis as any American President has ever been. So I don’t see him ordering sweeping special operations to round up the secessionist leadership. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2013, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-nsa-atf-fbi-had-existed-pre-civil-war-could-they-have-prevented-it/677187/3 "2013-12-26T03:36:21Z")
One interesting related “what-if” would be how history might have been changed if the Presidential inauguration date had been changed a hundred years earlier. What if Lincoln had become President on January 20, 1861 rather than March 4? At that point only five states had seceded and their secessions were much more recent. There also had not yet been any meeting between the seceding states to form a new government. Lincoln would have had a chance to deal with the secession crisis when it was still forming and before the new Confederate nation had become an established fact. ---
**Author:** ![Kobalt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/41988e/32.png) [@Kobalt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobalt)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2013, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-nsa-atf-fbi-had-existed-pre-civil-war-could-they-have-prevented-it/677187/4 "2013-12-26T03:47:33Z")
At worst, the widespread arrest and conviction of Southern leaders (governors, Congressmen, state legislature members, ets.) would have hastened the start of the war. At best, the war would have been shorter due to the large number of Southern military officers being arrsted before war broke out and therefore unavailable to lead the Southern armies. The only thing that could have prevented the Civil War would have been if leaders on both sides had tried to reign in the extremists on each side and find a compromise that both sides could live with. Sadly, this is something that politicians are rarely capable of doing. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Tildrum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e95f7d/32.png) [@Tom\_Tildrum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Tildrum)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2013, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-nsa-atf-fbi-had-existed-pre-civil-war-could-they-have-prevented-it/677187/5 "2013-12-26T04:27:09Z")
Confiscating guns in a rural nation would lead to a lot of hungry people, which would only fuel Southern resentment. Arresting military officers would be difficult, since the US wanted those officers to lead its military; remember that Robert E. Lee was offered command of the US Army. ---
**Author:** ![buddha\_david](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ee7513/32.png) [@buddha\_david](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/buddha_david)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2013, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-nsa-atf-fbi-had-existed-pre-civil-war-could-they-have-prevented-it/677187/6 "2013-12-29T16:30:59Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > It wasn’t like the secession was some secret conspiracy. Sure it was. And Abraham Lincoln was totally in on it. See my YouTube channel for THE PROOF!!!1! > [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > One interesting related “what-if” would be how history might have been changed if the Presidential inauguration date had been changed a hundred years earlier. What if Lincoln had become President on January 20, 1861 rather than March 4? At that point only five states had seceded and their secessions were much more recent. I don’t personally think it would have changed anything, and in fact may have hastened the path towards secession. Lincoln and his allies were doing everything in their power to prevent secession even before he took office (up to and including the infamous [Corwin Amendment](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corwin_amendment), which was proposed by a free-state Congressman and endorsed by Lincoln himself) but the Civil War was probably predestined from the moment the first slave ship arrived on American soil. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2013, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-nsa-atf-fbi-had-existed-pre-civil-war-could-they-have-prevented-it/677187/7 "2013-12-29T17:06:56Z")
I think it is equally likely that these espionage networks would benefit the Confederacy as they would the Union. It isn’t like this hypothetical NSA/ATF/FBI would be completely filled with people loyal to the Union. ---
**Author:** ![Slithy\_Tove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slithy_tove/32/18248_2.png) [@Slithy\_Tove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slithy_Tove)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2013, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-nsa-atf-fbi-had-existed-pre-civil-war-could-they-have-prevented-it/677187/8 "2013-12-29T17:29:53Z")
The Union did have Allen Pinkerton, who did have a lot of information at his disposal. Still, even a drone strike at the first Confederate Congress would not have shortened the war. Perhaps the opposite, since internal squabbling did as much damage as Sherman’s March to the Sea. BTW, Lincoln authorized the creation of the Secret Service only a few hours before he was shot. I propose we use this object lesson in not putting things off to make April 14, not March 10, annual smoke detector battery change day. ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2013, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-nsa-atf-fbi-had-existed-pre-civil-war-could-they-have-prevented-it/677187/9 "2013-12-29T19:10:40Z")
> [@Habeed](#): > > Hypothetical scenario : The NSA, ATF, and FBI all existed before the civil war, and through a network of informants and very advanced techniques, they had the same information on their citizens that those agencies have now. > > That is, it’s the 1850s, and all the technology is the same, but somehow the NSA knows about every single letter written anywhere in the country (they only know who it was sent between unless fill out a FISA form). They know about every conversation that occurs between any two people they care to tap. (equivalent to today where unless you hold the conversation in person, they can probably tap it) > > Anyways, they tell the FBI and ATF what they find out. The ATF has the authority to regulate what it does today, and can go after all those illegal owners of “assault cannon” who don’t have the proper paperwork. The FBI has similar jurisdiction and resources to today, although, of course they have 1850s tech otherwise. > > How many people, thereabouts, would they have needed to arrest and send to jail to stop the entire war cold? Assume these agencies have similar power to today, where they can arrest someone, charge them in a court of convenience, and have them tried by a jury in a Union state with a 97% conviction rate. Also, they have “mandatory minimums” for rebel activity… Until the outbreak of war, what do you even charge Southern legislatures & governors with? The Constitution limits the definition of treason to: > [@](#): > > Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying War against them, or in adhering to their Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort. No Person shall be convicted of Treason unless on the Testimony of two Witnesses to the same overt Act, or on Confession in open Court. There might be some slim reed of “obstructing public administration” or somesuch for interfering with postal delivery, but that’s about it. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2013, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-nsa-atf-fbi-had-existed-pre-civil-war-could-they-have-prevented-it/677187/10 "2013-12-30T05:13:40Z")
> [@Human\_Action](#): > > Until the outbreak of war, what do you even charge Southern legislatures & governors with? Seditious conspiracy? Which right now is defined as: > [@](#): > > If two or more persons in any State or Territory, or in any place subject to the jurisdiction of the United States, conspire to overthrow, put down, or to destroy by force the Government of the United States, or to levy war against them, or to oppose by force the authority thereof, or by force to prevent, hinder, or delay the execution of any law of the United States, or by force to seize, take, or possess any property of the United States contrary to the authority thereof, they shall each be fined or imprisoned not more than 20 years, or both. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2013, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-nsa-atf-fbi-had-existed-pre-civil-war-could-they-have-prevented-it/677187/11 "2013-12-30T05:37:12Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > I think it is equally likely that these espionage networks would benefit the Confederacy as they would the Union. It isn’t like this hypothetical NSA/ATF/FBI would be completely filled with people loyal to the Union. Exactly - if anyone would have suffered at their hands, it would have been the abolitionists, not the secessionists. After all, people like John Brown were terrorists who opposed the rule of law. ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2013, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-nsa-atf-fbi-had-existed-pre-civil-war-could-they-have-prevented-it/677187/12 "2013-12-30T13:22:37Z")
> [@Captain\_Amazing](#): > > Seditious conspiracy? Which right now is defined as: That’d do, but it wasn’t a crime until 1948. ---
**Author:** ![Stringbean](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d6d6ee/32.png) [@Stringbean](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stringbean)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2013, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-nsa-atf-fbi-had-existed-pre-civil-war-could-they-have-prevented-it/677187/13 "2013-12-30T18:57:23Z")
If the Civil War never happened, they would say it was their spying that prevented it. If the Civil War did happen, they would say it was because they weren’t spying enough. It’s all thievery in the name of security. ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2013, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-nsa-atf-fbi-had-existed-pre-civil-war-could-they-have-prevented-it/677187/14 "2013-12-30T19:15:46Z")
Thievery? 😕 ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2013, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-nsa-atf-fbi-had-existed-pre-civil-war-could-they-have-prevented-it/677187/15 "2013-12-30T19:55:54Z")
No. The problem wasn’t lack of information, it was lack of will to act until the insurrectionists forced the government’s hand. Hell, the Union Army _let officers quit to make war against them_ (as if the modern US just shrugged and told John Walker Lindh “good bye, good luck, don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out”). ---
**Author:** ![Stringbean](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d6d6ee/32.png) [@Stringbean](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stringbean)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2013, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-nsa-atf-fbi-had-existed-pre-civil-war-could-they-have-prevented-it/677187/16 "2013-12-30T22:04:11Z")
> [@Human\_Action](#): > > Thievery? 😕 Good point, the sheeple give it up willingly. ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2013, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-nsa-atf-fbi-had-existed-pre-civil-war-could-they-have-prevented-it/677187/17 "2013-12-30T23:22:23Z")
> [@Stringbean](#): > > Good point, the sheeple give it up willingly. Give what up? I am not grasping your meaning. How can spying be thievery? ---
**Author:** ![Stringbean](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d6d6ee/32.png) [@Stringbean](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stringbean)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2013, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-nsa-atf-fbi-had-existed-pre-civil-war-could-they-have-prevented-it/677187/18 "2013-12-30T23:32:18Z")
> [@Human\_Action](#): > > Give what up? I am not grasping your meaning. How can spying be thievery? You’ve outdone yourself Watson; it was a mere illusion in the first place! ---
**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2013, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-nsa-atf-fbi-had-existed-pre-civil-war-could-they-have-prevented-it/677187/19 "2013-12-30T23:45:36Z")
Well, there’s a few minutes of my life I’d rather have back.