# If the Syrians leave Lebanon . . . what then? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 5, 2005, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134 "2005-03-05T23:28:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2005, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/1 "2005-03-05T23:28:45Z")
Today President Bashar Assad of Syria announced plans to gradually withdraw Syrian troops from Lebanon. [http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/03/05/syria/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/03/05/syria/index.html) I guess that’s a good thing . . . But the Syrians originally sent their troops into Lebanon, in 1976, to put down the raging multi-sided civil war there (Maronite Christians vs. Sunni Muslims vs. Shi’ite Muslims vs. Druze, plus the PLO using southern Lebanon for base camps). [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese\_Civil\_War](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_Civil_War) The Syrians mostly put a stop to that – but just because the different groups haven’t had a chance to hash out their differences on the battlefield doesn’t mean they’ve learned to love each other. It occurs to me that the Syrians might have created, or preserved, a situation like Communist rule in Yugoslavia: It might have put a lid on the ethnic-religious hatreds, but they’re still there, festering under the surface, and if control is removed . . . Have the Lebanese matured enough to rule themselves as a democratic, multiethnic, multireligious society? Or will the old civil war break out again as soon as the Syrians leave? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2005, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/2 "2005-03-06T00:29:47Z")
Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department says a phased withdrawal with no timetable for completion is “not enough.” [http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7100068/](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7100068/) Bush demands a complete withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon before the next Lebanese election, scheduled for May. Or else what, George? ---
**Author:** ![laigle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ce7236/32.png) [@laigle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/laigle)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2005, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/3 "2005-03-06T00:43:33Z")
One reason Syria has held out so long in Lebanon is to have a negotiating chip with Israel if it’s ever needed. Packing it in may mean they have no plans to seek a change in current relations and have accepted a sort of close-range Cold War. Besides which, they have to realize at this point that there’s no consensus for any Pan-Arab war against Israel, so maintaining readiness for one is pointless. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2005, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/4 "2005-03-06T02:22:58Z")
> [@laigle](#): > > Besides which, they have to realize at this point that there’s no consensus for any Pan-Arab war against Israel, so maintaining readiness for one is pointless. Since the Camp David Accords in 1978. Are these guys slow learners, or what? But what does that mean for **Lebanon?** Can they all get along? ---
**Author:** ![Plan\_B](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3ec8ea/32.png) [@Plan\_B](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plan_B)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2005, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/5 "2005-03-06T04:18:13Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department says a phased withdrawal with no timetable for completion is “not enough.” [MSN | Outlook, Office, Skype, Bing, Breaking News, and Latest Videos](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7100068/) Bush demands a complete withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon before the next Lebanese election, scheduled for May. > > Or else what, George? According to tomorrow’s NYTimes the next step is severe banking isolation, with cooperation from our European allies. Ouch. From what I’ve read there are several other diplomatic/economic steps short of war that can and will be taken, if necessary. Amazing that only four months ago everyone was convinced that W had “squandered” our relationships with our allies. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2005, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/6 "2005-03-06T20:33:28Z")
Update – [http://news.ft.com/cms/s/0ebf25d8-8e75-11d9-8aae-00000e2511c8.html](http://news.ft.com/cms/s/0ebf25d8-8e75-11d9-8aae-00000e2511c8.html) > [@](#): > > Syrian troops will begin redeploying to Lebanon’s eastern Beka’a valley on Monday, as part of a phased withdrawal from the country pledged by Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, the Lebanese defence minister announced on Sunday. > > As the US continued to raise the pressure on Damascus, describing its promised withdrawal as insufficient, Abdel Rahim Mrad said the redeployment of troops would begin immediately after Monday’s summit in Damascus between Mr Assad and Emile Lahoud, the pro-Syrian Lebanese president. > > But in a sign of continued tension in Lebanon, Syria’s allies announced moves to counter the street demonstrations that have supported the opposition’s demands for a total withdrawal of Syrian troops. > > Hizbollah, the powerful Shia Islamist group backed by Syria, called for a march in Beirut on Tuesday to protest against international interference in Lebanese affairs. United Nations resolution 1559, sponsored by the US and France, calls for a Syrian withdrawal but also demands the disarming of Hizbollah’s military arm. I think we need a sweaty smiley with a nervous grin. ---
**Author:** ![laigle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ce7236/32.png) [@laigle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/laigle)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2005, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/7 "2005-03-06T23:12:10Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Since the Camp David Accords in 1978. Are these guys slow learners, or what? I wouldn’t go that far back. The concept of a general war in the Mideast remained thinkable (if unlikely) well through the 80s, the peak period for many of the terrorist groups we’ve all come to know and want bombed. But after Camp David the likelihood of such a war diminished, and slowly died out. But remember, the Syrians knuckled under when pressure was applied. They may be a decade behind the times here, but that can be accounted for by inertia. It’s not like they’re gaining anything, it’s just that they’re losing far less than they would otherwise. > [@BrainGlutton](#): > > But what does that mean for **Lebanon?** Can they all get along? Less than most people are reading into it, I imagine. It makes it easier for them to flourish as a democracy, but it’s not like Syria was the only stumbling block there. They’ll probably have to start facing periodic Israeli incursions if the Syrians do pull all the way out. And there’s plenty of bitter infighting to go around, Syrians or no. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2005, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/8 "2005-03-07T00:11:28Z")
> [@laigle](#): > > They’ll probably have to start facing periodic Israeli incursions if the Syrians do pull all the way out. Why? What would be the point? The Hezbollah in Lebanon aren’t that much of a threat to Israel any more, are they? When’s the last time they staged a border raid? ---
**Author:** ![Well](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/df788c/32.png) [@Well](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Well)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2005, 5:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/9 "2005-03-08T05:10:06Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Why? What would be the point? The Hezbollah in Lebanon aren’t that much of a threat to Israel any more, are they? When’s the last time they staged a border raid? [Israel says Hizbollah main threat in its region](http://www.reuters.co.in/locales/c_newsArticle.jsp?type=worldNews&localeKey=en_IN&storyID=7819207) And I’m sure you remember all those missile strikes that supposedly targetted civilian centers from Lebenon last year. ---
**Author:** ![pervert](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/bbe5ce/32.png) [@pervert](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pervert)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2005, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/10 "2005-03-08T16:34:56Z")
> [@laigle](#): > > But remember, the Syrians knuckled under when pressure was applied. They may be a decade behind the times here, but that can be accounted for by inertia. It’s not like they’re gaining anything, it’s just that they’re losing far less than they would otherwise. If I may inject the required Bush plug. I’m not sure that Inertia was enough to explain Syrian presence for so long. I would like to suggest that Saddam provided an example for much of that time of a leader who was put upon by the whole world, and yet still retained his position at home as well as some prestige regionally. Not something to aspire to, surely, but also an example of how to defy UN resolutions, international pressure, and still maintain an agressive posture in the region. As to the OP. I don’t know. There clearly will be lots of other issues to resolve before Lebenon becomes a functioning democracy. Could any of those be addressed, however, if Syria was still there? Would there be pressure of any kind on Hezbollah to reduce their operations if Syria does not withdraw? Was there any action from groups opposed to Syrian occupation before the recent events? The presence of Syrian troops and defacto Syrian rule was certainly not the only roadblock to Lebanese freedom. But was it the primary one? ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2005, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/11 "2005-03-08T16:45:32Z")
> [@pervert](#): > > The presence of Syrian troops and defacto Syrian rule was certainly not the only roadblock to Lebanese freedom. But was it the primary one? Yes, IMHO it was. > [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Why? What would be the point? The Hezbollah in Lebanon aren’t that much of a threat to Israel any more, are they? When’s the last time they staged a border raid? Whats Hezbollah’s primary mission again? Their reason for being? I forget… > [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Have the Lebanese matured enough to rule themselves as a democratic, multiethnic, multireligious society? Or will the old civil war break out again as soon as the Syrians leave? Initially I’m not sure. In the long run I’d say yes, though not definitely. Basically its too early to tell…after all Syria hasn’t withdrawn yet. They have only talked about it. Also, I’m unsure how much international support Lebanon will get…a little or a lot, it makes a huge difference as to the outcome. -XT ---
**Author:** ![sinical\_brit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/48db29/32.png) [@sinical\_brit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sinical_brit)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2005, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/12 "2005-03-08T16:49:01Z")
Syria and Hizbolla may well take comfort in todays events : "200,000 join pro-Syria Beirut protest An estimated 200,000 pro-Syria demonstrators took to the streets of the Lebanese capital Beirut today to protest at foreign meddling in the country’s politics and to counter weeks of anti-Syrian rallies. \ Yesterday, in the biggest demonstration yet of anti-Syrian furore, more than 70,000 Lebanese shouting “Freedom! Sovereignty! Independence!” thronged central Beirut. The demonstrators waved the Lebanese flag and thundered, “Syria out!” " From here: [http://www.guardian.co.uk/syria/story/0,13031,1433038,00.html](http://www.guardian.co.uk/syria/story/0,13031,1433038,00.html) So, 70,000 anti Syria vs 200,000 pro Syria. The US admins plans for the domino effect may just end up in civil war. And if Israel starts to militarily support the anti Syrian groups we may see the seeds of something much worse. Things move friggin quickly these days… ---
**Author:** ![sinical\_brit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/48db29/32.png) [@sinical\_brit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sinical_brit)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2005, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/13 "2005-03-08T16:55:28Z")
Um - make that 1/2 million… I cant keep up ! "4.45pm update 500,000 join pro-Syria Beirut protest Around half a million pro-Syria demonstrators took to the streets of the Lebanese capital Beirut today to protest at foreign meddling in the country’s politics and to counter weeks of anti-Syrian rallies. " From the same page i think: > **[500,000 join pro-Syria Beirut protest](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/mar/08/syria)** > > Around half a million pro-Syria demonstrators took to the streets of the Lebanese capital Beirut today to protest at foreign meddling in the country's politics and to counter weeks of anti-Syrian rallies. Sin ---
**Author:** ![Scott\_Plaid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/258eb7/32.png) [@Scott\_Plaid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scott_Plaid)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2005, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/14 "2005-03-09T20:41:51Z")
A serious downturn in the coffin building industry, is the best answer to the OP that I can think of. ---
**Author:** ![annaplurabelle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/919ad9/32.png) [@annaplurabelle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/annaplurabelle)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2005, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/15 "2005-03-09T21:38:55Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > But what does that mean for **Lebanon?** Can they all get along? [**New Polling Shows Deep Fractures Among Lebanese** , A Zogby International/Information International Poll of Lebanon](http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=973) > [@](#): > > The continuing signs of ferment in evidence in the streets of Beirut are being heralded in the US as signs that “another Middle East domino is falling.” > > The Bush Administration has been quick to latch on to the demonstrations as a validation of the President’s democracy campaign. > > But as horrific as the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri was and as inspiring as the mass mobilization of the “cedar revolution” has been, **the demonstrations don’t tell the whole story of what is happening in Lebanon today**. > > **A recent poll of 1,250 Lebanese, representing all religious groupings in the country, establishes that while an emerging consensus exists on some questions, on several key issues a deep sectarian divide still plagues the country.** And these must be tended to if Lebanon’s unity and internal security are to be insured. Scroll halfway down to see the sectarian breakdown grid. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2005, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/16 "2005-03-10T01:17:41Z")
> [@sinical brit](#): > > The US admins plans for the domino effect may just end up in civil war. And if Israel starts to militarily support the anti Syrian groups we may see the seeds of something much worse. Where **is** that sweaty nervous-grin smiley? ---
**Author:** ![Nietzsche](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/8dc957/32.png) [@Nietzsche](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nietzsche)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2005, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/17 "2005-03-10T05:23:10Z")
Just wanted to post a link to the pictures on [The Beeb](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/4330785.stm) I liked the tenth picture the most. That cedar tree on the left looks healthy, no? ---
**Author:** ![sinical\_brit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/48db29/32.png) [@sinical\_brit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sinical_brit)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2005, 10:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/18 "2005-03-10T10:57:29Z")
Agreed Nietzsche !! sin ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2005, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/19 "2005-03-14T19:16:38Z")
Update: Today (3/14/05) there was yet another anti-Syria rally in Beirut – which might have been even larger than the 500,000-strong Hezbollah-sponsored pro-Syrian rally last week: [http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-031405lebanon\_lat,0,4779884.story?coll=la-home-headlines](http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-031405lebanon_lat,0,4779884.story?coll=la-home-headlines) Which, again, raises the question: Are we seeing the opening stages of a fully independent Lebanese democracy – or the opening stages of yet another Lebanese Civil War? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Corrado](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a88e4f/32.png) [@John\_Corrado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Corrado)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2005, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/20 "2005-03-14T19:41:54Z")
Hard to say. It was pointed out in a Washington Post opinion article (don’t remember the author) that it was actually a _good_ sign that the pro-Syrian/Hezbollah rally occurred, as it’s a sign that even Hezbollah recognizes the need to appear as if it is acting peacefully in the name of mass support. The question for Lebanon is pretty much the same question as for Iraq- once one side is defeated in the political arena, do they withdraw from the government and begin a terrorist campaign to reach their objectives (the Communist/Monarchist solution to the Weimar Republic, which helped give legs to the Nazi movement), or do they simply pick up and jump back into the political ring to slug it out more? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134.md?page=2)