# If the Syrians leave Lebanon . . . what then? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 5, 2005, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134 "2005-03-05T23:28:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![smiling\_bandit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9a140/32.png) [@smiling\_bandit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smiling_bandit)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2005, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/21 "2005-03-14T23:21:42Z")
I does appear that the Lebanonese are considering en masse a move toward an accepting democracy. This isn’t so hard to comprehend. Truth be told, human society can rarely sustain the kind of internal conflict necessary to continue such an external one. Only when the enemy is clearly defined can those sorts of wars be maintained, which is much harder when your “enemy” is the guy demonstrating with you. > [@](#): > > Amazing that only four months ago everyone was convinced that W had “squandered” our relationships with our allies. Most of those political ties were based on cold, selfish logic, fell away because of cold, selfish logic, and are returning because of cold, selfish logic. Theyw ere never allies in the sense of actually being friends, but simply allies against a third party (the Soviet Union). And France was decidedly mixed in her opposition to the Soviet Union. And the reason for the alliance vanished. These kinds of alliances have no force except wen useful to all sides. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2005, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/22 "2005-03-15T02:21:39Z")
> [@smiling bandit](#): > > I does appear that the Lebanonese are considering en masse a move toward an accepting democracy. This isn’t so hard to comprehend. Truth be told, human society can rarely sustain the kind of internal conflict necessary to continue such an external one. Only when the enemy is clearly defined can those sorts of wars be maintained, which is much harder when your “enemy” is the guy demonstrating with you. 😕 What “external” conflict are you talking about? The Lebanese are divided about everything, including whether they have any external enemies, and, if so, whether their principal external enemy is Israel or Syria. ---
**Author:** ![Askance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askance/32/8281_2.png) [@Askance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askance)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2005, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/23 "2005-03-15T02:46:27Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > But the Syrians originally sent their troops into Lebanon, in 1976, to put down the raging multi-sided civil war there (Maronite Christians vs. Sunni Muslims vs. Shi’ite Muslims vs. Druze, plus the PLO using southern Lebanon for base camps). [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese\_Civil\_War](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_Civil_War) The Syrians mostly put a stop to that – Seeing as how the civil war went on til [1990](http://www.lebaneseforces.org/lebanon/leb_history.php) I’m not sure we can ascribe such unselfish motives to their occupation. And it’s been 15 years since then. Supposedly the main reason they are still there is to provide the Syrian leadership with a conduit to a functional economy (and thus the West) they can siphon money through. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2005, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/24 "2005-03-15T03:01:12Z")
> [@Askance](#): > > Supposedly the main reason they are still there is to provide the Syrian leadership with a conduit to a functional economy (and thus the West) they can siphon money through. 😕 How do the Syrians “siphon money” through Lebanon? To where, or from where, do they siphon it? And I haven’t heard Lebanon described as a “functional economy” since – well, I can’t remember when! ---
**Author:** ![Askance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askance/32/8281_2.png) [@Askance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askance)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2005, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/25 "2005-03-15T03:42:02Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > 😕 How do the Syrians “siphon money” through Lebanon? To where, or from where, do they siphon it? And I haven’t heard Lebanon described as a “functional economy” since – well, I can’t remember when! How? With militarily occupation and a puppet government, not a problem. Where? To and from Swiss banks and other financial havens, I imagine, like other kleptocracies. Functional compared to the Syrian economy of course. The pace of reconstruction in Lebanon since the end of the civial war was comparable to that in western Europe after WWII. That doesn’t happen without a robust economy (and there was no externally-financed Marshall Plan this time). Some cites: [One Syrian general](http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/L/Joshua.M.Landis-1/syriablog/2005/02/disarray-in-syrian-ranks-leads-to.htm) … said: “We made many, many mistakes in Lebanon. Do you know how much a Lebanese car cost in Syria during the war? 2,500 Syrian pounds at the border. Imagine, 2,500 SYRIAN pounds! (The equivalent of 400 dollars.) And that was a Mercedes. Every officer stole what he wanted. That’s what happens in war. Syria was filled with Lebanese cars. And for every one of those cars, there is a Lebanese family who hates Syria.” “It wasn’t just cars,” he added. “Soldiers filled trucks with kitchen tiles, faucets, perfume, bathtubs, you name it, and drove them back to Syria. It was easy for them. They had guns. Who was going to say no to them?” [It is reported](http://www.desert-voice.net/arab_news.htm) that Syria take out about $5.5 billion a year from Lebanon as an occupying force. [Last but not least](http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:f0y5pAqowxkJ:res_publica.blogspot.com/+%22syrian+leadership%22+mafia&hl=en&lr=lang_en&client=firefox-a), Syria must end its occupation of Lebanon, and the Mafia-style milking of that country that has enriched Baathist big shots. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2005, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/26 "2005-03-15T04:07:14Z")
> [@Askance](#): > > Some cites: > > [One Syrian general](http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/L/Joshua.M.Landis-1/syriablog/2005/02/disarray-in-syrian-ranks-leads-to.htm) … said: > > “We made many, many mistakes in Lebanon. Do you know how much a Lebanese car cost in Syria during the war? 2,500 Syrian pounds at the border. Imagine, 2,500 SYRIAN pounds! (The equivalent of 400 dollars.) And that was a Mercedes. Every officer stole what he wanted. That’s what happens in war. Syria was filled with Lebanese cars. And for every one of those cars, there is a Lebanese family who hates Syria.” > > “It wasn’t just cars,” he added. “Soldiers filled trucks with kitchen tiles, faucets, perfume, bathtubs, you name it, and drove them back to Syria. It was easy for them. They had guns. Who was going to say no to them?” > [It is reported](http://www.desert-voice.net/arab_news.htm) that Syria take out about $5.5 billion a year from Lebanon as an occupying force. > [Last but not least](http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:f0y5pAqowxkJ:res_publica.blogspot.com/+%22syrian+leadership%22+mafia&hl=en&lr=lang_en&client=firefox-a), Syria must end its occupation of Lebanon, and the Mafia-style milking of that country that has enriched Baathist big shots. I was wondering why the Syrians have been so stubborn about hanging on to Lebanon (other than as a way to fuck over Israel, which should be enough by itself, in that political climate), and I guess that answers that. Which raises the question: If the Lebanese occupation is really such a good deal for Syria (or at least, for the Syrian ruling elite), can we really expect them to give it up without a fight? ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2005, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/27 "2005-03-15T13:35:36Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Today President Bashar Assad of Syria announced plans to gradually withdraw Syrian troops from Lebanon. [http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/03/05/syria/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/03/05/syria/index.html) I guess that’s a good thing . . . But the Syrians originally sent their troops into Lebanon, in 1976, to put down the raging multi-sided civil war there (Maronite Christians vs. Sunni Muslims vs. Shi’ite Muslims vs. Druze, plus the PLO using southern Lebanon for base camps). [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese\_Civil\_War](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_Civil_War) The Syrians mostly put a stop to that – but just because the different groups haven’t had a chance to hash out their differences on the battlefield doesn’t mean they’ve learned to love each other. It occurs to me that the Syrians might have created, or preserved, a situation like Communist rule in Yugoslavia: It might have put a lid on the ethnic-religious hatreds, but they’re still there, festering under the surface, and if control is removed . . . > > Have the Lebanese matured enough to rule themselves as a democratic, multiethnic, multireligious society? Or will the old civil war break out again as soon as the Syrians leave? Ahhhh… I get it. Assad is merely picking up the White Man’s Burden. Right. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2005, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/28 "2005-03-15T15:08:52Z")
> [@](#): > > Which raises the question: If the Lebanese occupation is really such a good deal for Syria (or at least, for the Syrian ruling elite), can we really expect them to give it up without a fight? Yes. Why? Because they have no choice, you can’t enforce genocide to keep them in line. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2005, 7:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/29 "2005-03-16T07:04:13Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > Yes. > > Why? > > Because they have no choice, you can’t enforce genocide to keep them in line. :dubious: The Syrians haven’t had to resort to “genocide” in Lebanon up to now, and I don’t see how recent events would make it their only option short of withdrawal. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2005, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/30 "2005-03-16T15:17:03Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > :dubious: The Syrians haven’t had to resort to “genocide” in Lebanon up to now, and I don’t see how recent events would make it their only option short of withdrawal. sorry, should of been ‘nothing short of’ ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2005, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/31 "2005-03-16T21:41:53Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > sorry, should of been ‘nothing short of’ I still don’t understand you. Are you saying the Syrians will leave Lebanon without a fight, because it’s now politically possible for them to stay? I don’t see how conditions on the ground support that conclusion. It might be problematic for them to stay, but not impossible. 40% of Lebanon’s population is Shi’ite, they support Hezbollah as their chief defense against Israel, and they fear if the Syrians leave, Hezbollah will be disarmed. So the Syrian occupation does have some real popular support, and anti-occupation Lebanese aren’t going to start physically attacking Syrian troops any time soon. From _The Nation,_ 3/10/05, [http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20050328&s=editors:](http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20050328&s=editors:) > [@](#): > > In Lebanon, popular resentment against the Syrian occupation had been slowly building for some time. The original rationale for the Syrian presence–to serve as a peacekeeping force during the civil war–evaporated with the Taif Accords in 1989, which ended the civil conflict. But for years afterward, the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon deflected criticism of Syria’s presence, since Syria was a leading backer of Hezbollah’s guerrilla resistance against the Israelis, which was supported by most Lebanese. The turning point came after Hezbollah drove out the Israelis in 2000. That and the death of Syrian President Hafez al-Assad emboldened first the Lebanese Christians, then the Druse and Sunni population, to speak more openly against the heavy-handed Syrian presence. The assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, along with Syria’s earlier pressure on Lebanon’s parliament to amend the constitution to extend the term of President Émile Lahoud, coalesced anti-Syrian sentiment into a potent force for self-determination. > > But this force aroused powerful domestic countercurrents: Lebanon’s Shiites, who make up 40 percent of the population, avoided the demonstrations, suspicious that the United States is pressuring Syria to withdraw not to advance democracy in Lebanon but to weaken Syria and to force Hezbollah to disarm, thus depriving Lebanon of its strongest deterrent against Israeli aggression. On March 8 Hezbollah demonstrated its political and popular strength by organizing a massive rally of some 500,000 in support of the Syrians, dwarfing the crowds celebrating the cedar revolution. The Hezbollah demonstration showed that democracy and self-determination in Lebanon are not as straightforward a matter as the White House would have us believe. If it is to be successful, the Lebanese movement against the Syrian occupation will have to assuage the fears of the Shiites, rooted in longstanding US policy in the region. If the democratic movement thrives in Lebanon, it will be as much despite US pressure as because of it. Neoconservative strutting or, worse, interference could doom it. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2005, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/32 "2005-03-16T22:07:40Z")
> [@](#): > > I still don’t understand you. Are you saying the Syrians will leave Lebanon without a fight, because it’s now politically possible for them to stay? Etc etc etc… I mean they’ll leave, because to remain in Lebanon even though the majority of the country, doesn’t want your presense there, they’d have to declare war on the people of Lebanon to remain, which I see as not politically feasable or even remotely practical. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2005, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/33 "2005-03-16T22:12:48Z")
> [@](#): > > But this force aroused powerful domestic countercurrents: Lebanon’s Shiites, who make up 40 percent of the population, avoided the demonstrations, suspicious that the United States is pressuring Syria to withdraw not to advance democracy in Lebanon but to weaken Syria and to force Hezbollah to disarm, thus depriving Lebanon of its strongest deterrent against Israeli aggression. On March 8 Hezbollah demonstrated its political and popular strength by organizing a massive rally of some 500,000 in support of the Syrians, dwarfing the crowds celebrating the cedar revolution. The Hezbollah demonstration showed that democracy and self-determination in Lebanon are not as straightforward a matter as the White House would have us believe. If it is to be successful, the Lebanese movement against the Syrian occupation will have to assuage the fears of the Shiites, rooted in longstanding US policy in the region. If the democratic movement thrives in Lebanon, it will be as much despite US pressure as because of it. Neoconservative strutting or, worse, interference could doom it. [800,000 in anti syrian protests](http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2005/s1324126.htm) and that protest by Hezbollah is very dubious, as 200,000 Syrians work in Lebanon, I wonder how they swelled the numbers :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2005, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/34 "2005-03-17T21:54:41Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > and that protest by Hezbollah is very dubious, as 200,000 Syrians work in Lebanon, I wonder how they swelled the numbers :rolleyes: Well, that raises another issue: If the Syrian **troops** leave Lebanon, what happens to the Syrian **workers?** ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2005, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/35 "2005-03-17T23:35:16Z")
> [@](#): > > Well, that raises another issue: If the Syrian troops leave Lebanon, what happens to the Syrian workers? I think Hezbollah will make assurances they wouldn’t get hurt. Besides, what would the anti occupation Lebanese get out of persecuting the workers, it’d only damage their cause. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2005, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/36 "2005-03-17T23:38:11Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > I think Hezbollah will make assurances they wouldn’t get hurt. Besides, what would the anti occupation Lebanese get out of persecuting the workers, it’d only damage their cause. I was thinking less of “persecution” than of a nationalistic campaign to send them packing to Syria because they’re taking jobs Lebanese could do. Of course, that could never emerge so long as the Lebanese government is dominated by the Syrian. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2005, 12:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/37 "2005-04-25T12:35:16Z")
Update: The last Syrian troops are leaving Lebanon today. New national elections for Lebanon are scheduled for May 29. [http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,15083146-23109,00.html](http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,15083146-23109,00.html) So . . . what now? Can the Lebanese put aside their sectarian divisions and govern themselves? What will Hezbollah do? And what (if anything) will Israel do? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2005, 12:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/38 "2005-04-25T12:38:32Z")
According to “The Syrian Dilemma,” an article by David Hirst in _The Nation,_ 5/2/05 – [http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20050502&s=hirst](http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20050502&s=hirst) – withdrawal from Lebanon might destabilize the Ba’ath regime in Syria. ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2005, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/39 "2005-04-25T13:37:00Z")
I think (and hope) there can be a distiction between Syrian soldiers and civilians. The main issue is that there is military occupation and no country wants that. The secondary issue of ethnic and sectarian division is albiet a more complicated issue. Depending on who you ask, there is no ethnic difference between Syrians and Lebanese. Lebanon was part of Syria and if you search on that claim you will find a much larger story. > [@](#): > > Syria’s occupation Lebanon was part of Syria’s official doctrine of establishing a “Greater Syria,” which holds that all of Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon rightfully belong to Syria and are under temporary alien control. [Cite](http://www.campus-watch.org/article/id/1759) > [@](#): > > “Lebanon was part of Syria and we will restore it with any attempt at partition . . . Lebanon will either be united or will be returned to Syria.” > Abdul Halim Khaddam, January 1976 [Cite](http://www.ualm.org.au/press_releases.asp?display=content&id=23) > [@](#): > > I would none the less point out that before 1920 Lebanon was part of Syria. Syria was divided by the French (did they ever do imperial colonialism right anywhere?) after they conquered it, so as much as I’m happy to see what’s happening in Lebanon, I also can see why Syria feels the way it feels. [Cite](http://www.nationalreview.com/tks/057380.html) We’ll have to wait until after the elections to see the immediate consequences of the Syrian withdrawl. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2005, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/40 "2005-04-25T17:46:36Z")
> [@Kozmik](#): > > Lebanon was part of Syria and if you search on that claim you will find a much larger story. Well, that’s sort of true, sort of false. Both Lebanon and Syria were part of the Ottoman Empire, and neither were entirely independent. But, there was a seperate province of Lebanon in the Ottoman Empire, consisting of Mt. Lebanon and the Bekka Valley. After a bunch of Christian-Druze fighting, the area was redrawn, and the provence of Lebanon was split up, the area around Mt. Lebanon given autonomy, and then the entire thing put under the authority of the Governor of Syria. After the First World War, Lebanon and Syria were turned over to France under a League of Nations mandate. Syria was supposed to get independence, and Lebanon was supposed to be self governing under French control, with independence later. So, the French redrew the Lebanese/Syrian border, adding a bunch of former Syrian land (and ultimately causing most of Lebanon’s future sectarian problems, as the new borders put large Muslim populations into what was almost entirely Christian Lebanon.) So, parts of Lebanon were once Syrian, and under the Ottomans, Lebanon was at one point part of the district of Syria, but independent Lebanon itself was never part of independent Syria. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134.md?page=3)