# If the Syrians leave Lebanon . . . what then? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 5, 2005, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134 "2005-03-05T23:28:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![smiling\_bandit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9a140/32.png) [@smiling\_bandit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smiling_bandit)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2005, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/41 "2005-04-25T20:12:38Z")
> [@](#): > > What “external” conflict are you talking about? The Lebanese are divided about everything, including whether they have any external enemies, and, if so, whether their principal external enemy is Israel or Syria. A similar statement could be made about the 13 colonies against England. It is too early to state categorically that they will be peaceful if Syria leaves. But by the same token, noting that deep differences exist says little. Until a leadership forms and works towards (or fails) at smoothing over those differences, no one can say how the process will go. It all depends, ultimately, on the will of the Joe Lebanon, and groups that size anbd varied are notoriously difficult to predict. Still, others have pointed out that Lebanonese have a long history (well, long in sense of being a half-century old) with many reasons to dislike Syria, regardless of their affiliation. And an anti-Syrian identity could easily become the basis for something more. ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2005, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/42 "2005-04-27T18:37:36Z")
Lebanon has existed since antiquity, though it only achieved independence in the last century. There is more to the issue of Syria and Lebanon than you might think. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2005, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/43 "2005-04-27T19:00:45Z")
> [@Kozmik](#): > > Lebanon has existed since antiquity, though it only achieved independence in the last century. There is more to the issue of Syria and Lebanon than you might think. So, go into detail. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2005, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/44 "2005-04-27T23:06:12Z")
> [@Kozmik](#): > > Lebanon has existed since antiquity, though it only achieved independence in the last century. **Every** country in the ME has existed since antiquity, in the sense of having been continuously inhabited by settled populations since neolithic times. But that is not the same as having a long history of national identity. No currently existing nation-state of the ME between Egypt and Iran existed as a state or as a self-conscious nation prior to WWI; some, such as Israel and Jordan, did not exist before WWII. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2005, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/45 "2005-04-27T23:17:28Z")
Seems to be a bone of contention here, how do they get to create a real sense of Nationalism like we in the West have? Seems to be the basis of a functional and secure state. Seems to me that the Ottoman and Caliphate Empires forestalled the warfare necessary for the newly independent States. E.G tribalism, actually pretty much died out in Western Europe a thousand years ago, and then came the emergence of stable states without large scale internal (derivative from ethnic rivaly) problems. Something along those lines anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Scott\_Plaid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/258eb7/32.png) [@Scott\_Plaid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scott_Plaid)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2005, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/46 "2005-04-27T23:26:00Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > Seems to be a bone of contention here, how do they get to create a real sense of Nationalism like we in the West have? Seems to be the basis of a functional and secure state. How? They can pull it out of their ass, (Or if you prefer, hat) like the “palestianians”. You know,lke the PLO. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2005, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/47 "2005-04-27T23:31:30Z")
Some states in the ME are artificial and therefore untentable in the long run as to say my country for instance. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2005, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/48 "2005-04-27T23:31:17Z")
> [@Scott\_plaid](#): > > How? They can pull it out of their ass, (Or if you prefer, hat) like the “palestianians”. You know,lke the PLO. Not parallel . . . the “Palestinian” national identity, which did not exist at all before 1948, was pulled out of nobody’s ass/hat; it was created by the experience of fighting against an alien and oppressing nation, Israel, and by systematic exclusion from the national communities of other Arab nations in which some sought refuge. And now it’s just as real as any other national identity – at least in the sense that Palestinians everywhere, including “diaspora” Palestinians who have never been to Palestine, now think of themselves as Palestinians first and foremost, and not as part of their host countries’ communities, nor as members of a larger Arab community, and certainly not as Israelis. By the same token, you could say that modern Lebanese national identity has been formed, or is in the process of being formed, by opposition to Syria (and to Israel). ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2005, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/49 "2005-04-27T23:34:36Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > Some states in the ME are artificial and therefore untentable in the long run as to say my country for instance. 😕 You mean the UK? ---
**Author:** ![Scott\_Plaid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/258eb7/32.png) [@Scott\_Plaid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scott_Plaid)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2005, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/50 "2005-04-27T23:40:06Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Not parallel . . . the “Palestinian” national identity, which did not exist at all before 1948, was pulled out of nobody’s ass/hat; it was created by the experience of fighting against an alien and oppressing nation, Israel, and by systematic exclusion from the national communities of other Arab nations in which some sought refuge.\ Let me assume for a moment that Israeli has not bent over backwards to accomodate those who want to destroy it, just for the sake of a peacful discussion. Even given my surrendering those points, I think the above still warrants a ::Vomit Smiley:: ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2005, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/51 "2005-04-27T23:44:24Z")
Don’t even start saying the UK is an artificial construct, the various states at least had some independence and then agreed to unify under the act of Union. Some states in the Middle East however, unified under force, or under pressure, like Iraq for example. The process in Europe has been unification of ethnic people —\> then to war with other nation states. However, in the Middle East its taken a different turn: its Enforced unification of people into an artificial state to benefit superpower ----\> Independence ---------\> large scale internal suppression due to lack of national unity --------\> Only workable solution for short term stability = Totalitarianism. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2005, 4:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/52 "2005-04-28T04:43:24Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > Don’t even start saying the UK is an artificial construct, the various states at least had some independence and then agreed to unify under the act of Union. I know, that’s what threw me. What country did you mean by “my country for instance”? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2005, 4:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/53 "2005-04-28T04:48:01Z")
> [@Scott\_plaid](#): > > Let me assume for a moment that Israeli has not bent over backwards to accomodate those who want to destroy it, just for the sake of a peacful discussion. Even given my surrendering those points, I think the above still warrants a ::Vomit Smiley:: :dubious: I never said all the wrong was on one side. Nevertheless, from the POV of the Palestinians, Israel **is** an alien and oppressing nation, and the Palestinians’ experience with it **is** the main reason such thing as a Palestinian national identity exists.\* What part of that do you dispute? \*If Israel had never been created, my guess is, Arabs of Palestine today (Muslim and Christian alike) probably would self-identify as Syrians, or simply as Arabs. ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2005, 9:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/54 "2005-04-28T09:11:24Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > **Every** country in the ME has existed since antiquity, in the sense of having been continuously inhabited by settled populations since neolithic times. But that is not the same as having a long history of national identity. No currently existing nation-state of the ME between Egypt and Iran existed as a state or as a self-conscious nation prior to WWI; some, such as Israel and Jordan, did not exist before WWII. Lebanon, Egypt and India have three things in common. They are among the oldest nations on earth, they were once under colonial control, and there is an interesting political movement which is being attempted in those nations. There is something _fundamentally_ different between the nations of Italy and Greece. Greece is an ancient nation. Italy is a modern nation. But why? Why would Lebanon be considered an ancient nation? Ancient nations compared to modern nations - what do you notice? India compared to Pakistan and Bangladesh Ireland and Scotland compared to the United Kingdom India compared to Iraq, Syria, and Jordan Mexico, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Iran, Greece compared to Australia, Canada, and the United States ---
**Author:** ![Scott\_Plaid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/258eb7/32.png) [@Scott\_Plaid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scott_Plaid)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2005, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/55 "2005-05-02T16:21:32Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > What part of that do you dispute? The fact that it’s bull. Now, I don’t want to fight you on this, but personally, I could never get the hang of sociology. Professor: “The people of Sometriboranother believe that pregnancy is caused by spirits of their ancestors. To them, it is the truth.” Me: “I see.” ::Privately, to myself: “But it’s bull!”:: Back on to the subject, I remain unconvinced how much of the claim of ownership of “Palestine”, is believed by the “Palestinians.” That being said, I am sorry for derailing the topic. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2005, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134/56 "2005-05-13T21:14:56Z")
Update: As the election approaches, Lebanon’s Maronite Christians are demanding changes in the rules. From [http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/A979D2E0-D516-4CE5-93E8-F41F4E4B34A5.htm:](http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/A979D2E0-D516-4CE5-93E8-F41F4E4B34A5.htm:) > [@](#): > > Lebanon’s disparate opposition to Syria’s grip is unravelling along sectarian lines as the 29 May first round of the polls approaches. > > It will be the first ballot without a direct Syrian presence in Lebanon in 33 years and most Christians strongly object to the law organising it. > > Christian leaders, from top officials loyal to Syria to vehemently anti-Damascus bishops, have slammed the electoral law, designed in 2000 to help Damascus allies win seats in the chamber they now dominate. > > But with Syria ending its 29-year military and intelligence presence last month, Christian loyalists have turned against the law, which carves the country into a mixture of smaller and larger electoral districts. > > Sectarian tension > > The Taif Accord, which ended the 1975-1990 civil war that split Lebanon into Christian and Muslim enclaves, divides parliament’s 128 seats in half between Muslims and Christians, whatever the rules. > > But the influential Maronite bishops warn the 2000 law would upset the country’s delicate sectarian balance by drowning out Christian voices in large voting districts dominated by Muslims. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-syrians-leave-lebanon-what-then/293134.md?page=2)