# If the UK had a referendum on proportional representation, would it pass? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 1, 2005, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-uk-had-a-referendum-on-proportional-representation-would-it-pass/301986 "2005-05-01T22:44:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2005, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-uk-had-a-referendum-on-proportional-representation-would-it-pass/301986/41 "2005-05-02T18:07:05Z")
> [@GorillaMan](#): > > It’s not decided directly by politicians, but by the independent Boundaries Commission. (Gerrymandering by American-style redistricting is illegal.) You are so wise! ☹ (See this thread: [End gerrymandering! Take redistricting away from the state legislatures! - Great Debates - Straight Dope Message Board](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=314742)) ---
**Author:** ![Giles](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/giles/32/60_2.png) [@Giles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Giles)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2005, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-uk-had-a-referendum-on-proportional-representation-would-it-pass/301986/42 "2005-05-02T18:07:13Z")
> [@Domokun](#): > > Nice in theory, until no one gets a clear majority (very hard with PR) and you get the hard left or right end up holding vastly disproportionate power in coalition governments. I think our system works well enough. It isn’t the hard right or the hard left that holds the balance of power in those situations: it’s the middle of the road. So, with three main parties in the UK, the LibDems would have to work out wheither Labour or the Tories were closer to their line of politics. ---
**Author:** ![Domokun](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c77e96/32.png) [@Domokun](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Domokun)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2005, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-uk-had-a-referendum-on-proportional-representation-would-it-pass/301986/43 "2005-05-02T18:21:59Z")
> [@Avenger](#): > > Where’s the evidence that that would happen? The British electorate is firmly rooted in the centre, I don’t see how a new voting system would change that. We’re not Israel… Well for (what seemed like) a long time the Major government was propped up by the Ulster Unionists, which meant very little movement in a fledgling peace process. If you make the small parties larger this can only become more problematic. From the pro-Euro Britain in Europe: > [@](#): > > We are delighted that, while its share of the vote soared, the anti-European UKIP polled only 16%. Adding this together with the votes for the BNP, which also favours withdrawal from the EU, this means that only 21% of British voters backed parties that explicitly favour leaving the EU. [http://www.britainineurope.org.uk/theissues/enews/enews-18-06-04](http://www.britainineurope.org.uk/theissues/enews/enews-18-06-04) That’s a sizeable chunk. I’d hate to think what sort of politics we’d have if UKIP or the BNP had any place in government. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2005, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-uk-had-a-referendum-on-proportional-representation-would-it-pass/301986/44 "2005-05-02T18:39:09Z")
> [@Domokun](#): > > I’d hate to think what sort of politics we’d have if UKIP or the BNP had any place in government. But don’t you think they would be balanced out by the Greens, socialists, etc.? ---
**Author:** ![Domokun](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c77e96/32.png) [@Domokun](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Domokun)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2005, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-uk-had-a-referendum-on-proportional-representation-would-it-pass/301986/45 "2005-05-02T19:12:38Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > But don’t you think they would be balanced out by the Greens, socialists, etc.? Extremists of either bent are all dangerous in their own ways in my opinion. ---
**Author:** ![GorillaMan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/50afbb/32.png) [@GorillaMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GorillaMan)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2005, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-uk-had-a-referendum-on-proportional-representation-would-it-pass/301986/46 "2005-05-02T19:18:43Z")
> [@Domokun](#): > > That’s a sizeable chunk. I’d hate to think what sort of politics we’d have if UKIP or the BNP had any place in government. It’s worth pointing out the difference between ‘true’ PR and systems more typically used in elections. True PR would, in that example, give those parties 21% of seats. But most systems (single transferrable vote, for example) have a proportional element, while keeping the influence of fringe and extremist parties under better control. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2005, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-uk-had-a-referendum-on-proportional-representation-would-it-pass/301986/47 "2005-05-02T19:21:24Z")
> [@Domokun](#): > > Extremists of either bent are all dangerous in their own ways in my opinion. True. Which does not mean it’s dangerous to let a few of them into Parliament. To the contrary, that could be a safety valve for frustrations that might otherwise find their outlet in revolutionary movements or acts of terrorism. But my point is that moving to PR would not, by itself, shift the UK’s political center-of-gravity left or right or up or down. ---
**Author:** ![roger\_thornhill](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d9b06d/32.png) [@roger\_thornhill](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/roger_thornhill)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2005, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-uk-had-a-referendum-on-proportional-representation-would-it-pass/301986/48 "2005-05-02T20:01:45Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Which does not mean it’s dangerous to let a few of them into Parliament. You ask those who survived a mauling from Denis Skinner, AKA The Beast of Bolsover. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2005, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-uk-had-a-referendum-on-proportional-representation-would-it-pass/301986/49 "2005-05-02T20:25:59Z")
> [@roger thornhill](#): > > You ask those who survived a mauling from Denis Skinner, AKA The Beast of Bolsover. 😕 Who? ---
**Author:** ![Governor\_Quinn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/d26b3c/32.png) [@Governor\_Quinn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Governor_Quinn)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2005, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-uk-had-a-referendum-on-proportional-representation-would-it-pass/301986/50 "2005-05-02T21:04:40Z")
The election results from 2001, if pure proportional representation (1% of the vote, 1% of the seats) had been used (real seats won in parenthesis): Labour: 277 (412) Conservative: 209 (166) LibDem: 120 (52) SNP: 12 (5) UKIP: 10 (0) UU: 5 (6) PC: 5 (4) DUP: 5 (5) SF: 4 (4) SDLP: 4 (3) Green: 4 (0) SSP: 2 (0) SA: 1 (0) S Lab P: 1 (0) BNP: 1 (0) APNI: 1 (0) (This equals 661, and I’m not sure which two would be the ones not to be seated) ---
**Author:** ![Avenger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Avenger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Avenger)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2005, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-uk-had-a-referendum-on-proportional-representation-would-it-pass/301986/51 "2005-05-02T21:11:01Z")
Although you would have to take into account that the first past the post system may often mean that people don’t cast their vote for the party that best reflects their views as they have no chance of actually winning. So those numbers may not reflect what would actually happen under PR. ---
**Author:** ![Giles](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/giles/32/60_2.png) [@Giles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Giles)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2005, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-uk-had-a-referendum-on-proportional-representation-would-it-pass/301986/52 "2005-05-02T21:18:23Z")
The list given by **Governor Quinn** makes it clear that some minor parties do well out of the present system. These are the parties which have their support concentrated geographically, e.g., the Ulster Unionists (who get one more seat than they’d get in a PR system). On the other hand, the Toties and the LibDems have their supporters spreadf too thinly, and get significantly less support than they would under PR. So the present system encourages extremism provided it has a narrow geographical base, but discourages moderation that is a significant minorioty throughout the country. Of course, some people would change their vote given a PR system: you would no longer be told, “You are wasting your vote” when you vote LibDem, Green, or even UKIP. So some people voting Labour now who vote LibDem or Green, and some voting Tory now would vote UKIP, and the results would be a bit different from those in the 2001 election. ---
**Author:** ![Governor\_Quinn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/d26b3c/32.png) [@Governor\_Quinn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Governor_Quinn)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2005, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-uk-had-a-referendum-on-proportional-representation-would-it-pass/301986/53 "2005-05-02T21:31:04Z")
> [@Avenger](#): > > Although you would have to take into account that the first past the post system may often mean that people don’t cast their vote for the party that best reflects their views as they have no chance of actually winning. So those numbers may not reflect what would actually happen under PR. Of course. The above was just a demonstration, using statistics I had on-hand. ---
**Author:** ![Cunctator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/43a26b/32.png) [@Cunctator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cunctator)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2005, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-uk-had-a-referendum-on-proportional-representation-would-it-pass/301986/54 "2005-05-02T23:00:28Z")
> [@Giles](#): > > PR has been used in many parliamentary systems, including Ireland, Israel, New Zealand, and the Australian state of Tasmania. Other Australian examples of the use of PR include elections for the upper house of the Commonwealth Parliament (the Senate); the upper houses of the New South Wales and South Australian Parliaments (the Legislative Council); and the Legislative Assembly of the Australian Capital Territory. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Mondegreen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/91b2a8/32.png) [@Lord\_Mondegreen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Mondegreen)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2005, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-uk-had-a-referendum-on-proportional-representation-would-it-pass/301986/55 "2005-05-03T04:24:04Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > What you’re describing is called “instant-runoff voting.” It’s **still** first-past-the-post, not the same thing at all as PR (in terms of practical results, the LibDems would not likely win any more seats under it than they do now); but it does simplify “strategic voting” decisions in elections where there is only one seat to be filled. See this thread: [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=261969](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=261969) Thanks for the link. No, of course preferential voting it is not the same thing as PR, and I never even implied, let alone stated, that it was. In fact the two aren’t even necessarily related, though I think both are good ideas. What I wanted to offer was an improvement to the current situation which would be, in my opinion, much easier to implement and much more palatable to the electorate. I disagree with you that preferential voting is first-past-the-post - to me FPPT means that the leader at the end of the first count is elected. With preferential voting that is clearly not always the case. However I don’t think it’s worth quibbling over nomenclature. I also believe that it would help the Lib-Dems. Certainly, as you say, they would be unlikely to win any more seats at the first election under that system, but they would very likely have a much better showing than would otherwise be the case. They could then be seen as a credible alternative, and this is likely to result in more seats at the next election. Back to the issue of PR, it is important to know the how many representatives are envisaged for each multi-member electorate. Too few and a hung parliament is almost guaranteed; too many and the quota for election is too low, leading to loony fringe members. The first election for the Australian Capital Territory (after self-government was bestowed) had the latter problem, and the ballot paper was literally more than one metre wide. The former problem also occurs in the ACT, but in Federal elections - we elect two senators by PR, which inevitably leads to one Labor and one Liberal. ---
**Author:** ![Governor\_Quinn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/d26b3c/32.png) [@Governor\_Quinn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Governor_Quinn)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2005, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-uk-had-a-referendum-on-proportional-representation-would-it-pass/301986/56 "2005-05-03T04:39:28Z")
I was asked for an example of what PR would do, using election results showing the effect of PR. In that regard, I have taken the results of the 2004 Greater London Authority top-up seat races, and used them to calculate for the 74 (at least by my count) Greater London seats. Here’s what the results would have been: Conservative- 21 Labour- 19 LibDems- 13 Green- 6 UKIP- 6 BNP- 4 RESPECT- 3 CPA- 2 ---
**Author:** ![APB](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/8e8cbc/32.png) [@APB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/APB)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2005, 9:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-uk-had-a-referendum-on-proportional-representation-would-it-pass/301986/57 "2005-05-03T09:58:32Z")
> [@GorillaMan](#): > > It’s not decided directly by politicians, but by the independent Boundaries Commission. (Gerrymandering by American-style redistricting is illegal.) As far as I’m aware, there’s no fixed timeframe for when it’s done, but rather the commission identifies situations where changes are needed. This time around, they’ve been busy completely redrawing the Scottish setup. They have a statutory obligation to carry out a review every 8-12 years. (There has to be some flexibility in the timing given that the timing of general elections is not fixed.) So, unless it is abnormally short, there’ll be a review in England during the course of the forthcoming Parliament. Note also that there are separate commissions for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. > [@Avenger](#): > > Actually I think that PR could quite quickly split the Conservative party - there would no longer be the electoral glue to hold together the euro-sceptic right and the Ken Clarke-style one-nation tories. And one can equally well imagine it splitting the Labour Party as well. What this illustrates is one fact often overlooked about first-past-the-post - it’s not that it makes coalitions less likely, only that those coalitions tend to exist within parties. ---
**Author:** ![roger\_thornhill](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d9b06d/32.png) [@roger\_thornhill](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/roger_thornhill)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2005, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-uk-had-a-referendum-on-proportional-representation-would-it-pass/301986/58 "2005-05-04T02:40:52Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > 😕 Who? [The Beast of Bolsover](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2055263.stm) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2005, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-uk-had-a-referendum-on-proportional-representation-would-it-pass/301986/59 "2005-05-05T15:41:14Z")
> [@roger thornhill](#): > > [The Beast of Bolsover](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2055263.stm) Meh. If that’s the most dangerous “extremist” you’ve got in Parliament now, you **need** PR to save the country from death by boredom! ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2005, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-uk-had-a-referendum-on-proportional-representation-would-it-pass/301986/60 "2005-05-06T16:07:01Z")
Update: In yesterday’s General Election, Labour won 355 seats, the Conservatives 197, the Liberal Democrats 62. Labour’s majority in the Commons was cut from 167 seats in 2001 to 66; the Tories gained 31 seats from 2001 and the LibDems gained 10. [http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk\_politics/vote\_2005/frontpage/4521627.stm](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4521627.stm) Does that make a PR referendum between now and the next election more or less likely? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-uk-had-a-referendum-on-proportional-representation-would-it-pass/301986.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-uk-had-a-referendum-on-proportional-representation-would-it-pass/301986.md?page=4)