# If the United States just ignored ISIS, what's the worst that could happen? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 26, 2015, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028 "2015-03-26T14:56:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/1 "2015-03-26T14:56:27Z")
If the United States hadn’t been droning and striking ISIS and simply ignored it, what’s the worst that could happen? It is a headache for the Arab nations in the vicinity and even if the US left ISIS alone, surely they would see fit to fight ISIS on their own as much as possible? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/2 "2015-03-26T15:06:15Z")
I think there is a real possibility that Jordan would be seriously destabilized to the point that a very friendly and moderate government there collapses. Half of Iraq would probably be handed over to ISIS. Whether or not ISIS has designs to use its territory to plot attacks on Europe and the US, and also many countries friendly to us, there’s no doubt in my mind that whackos from other terrorist organizations would go there to do the very same. ETA: And oh yeah, tens of thousands of innocent civilians would be murdered, or at best horribly mistreated, by an incompetent and vicious mob of pieces of human trash for many, many years to come. So, there’s that, too. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Joker\_and\_the\_Thief](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e79b87/32.png) [@The\_Joker\_and\_the\_Thief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Joker_and_the_Thief)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/3 "2015-03-26T15:09:55Z")
You need to clarify. Do you mean ignore them militarily? Or ignore them in an economic and political capacity as well? Treat them no differently than we treat other, more boring terrorist groups? The end result, I think, is that ISIS would eventually commit a terrorist attack on US soil. Maybe not in the near future, and maybe not a very significant one, but they seem determined to attack us at home. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/4 "2015-03-26T15:13:09Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > If the United States hadn’t been droning and striking ISIS and simply ignored it, what’s the worst that could happen? It is a headache for the Arab nations in the vicinity and even if the US left ISIS alone, surely they would see fit to fight ISIS on their own as much as possible? This morning, Saudi forces attacked Shiite rebels (purportedly backed by Iran) in Yemen. They were supported by a coalition of other regional Sunni nations in this and condemned (unsurprisingly) but Iran (and, at a guess, Iraq will join in as well condemning it at some point if they haven’t already). The US didn’t participate nor are we likely too. What’s any of this have to do with ISIS/ISIL? The region is a powder keg right now. Sunni’s are split on supporting ISIS/ISIL, supporting AQ staying neutral or fighting them (but for what gain, especially in Iraq?). Shiites on the other hand are rallying to oppose them, and Iran is definitely involved. Now, what do you suppose will be the outcome if the US backs out and just lets the region deal with this by themselves? Well, one outcome that springs to my mind is that if ISIS/ISIL wins it will escalate the sectarian violence in the region…a region that the US and all other industrialized nations heavily rely on. If the Shiite coalitions backed by Iran win, however, that might even be worse, since it’s clear that the Shiites in Iraq aren’t keen to share power with the Sunnis or give them any sort of power or stake in the country. You could get a situation just like in Yemen where Saudi and it’s own coalition directly involves itself in striking at Shiite ‘rebels’ if they think Iran is gaining even more of a foot hold. And, that brings Iran into the mix, since they have spent a lot of political capital on this already, and they have their own agenda in the region. This could spark a shooting war between Iran, some Iraqi Shiite coalition against Saudi and it’s own Sunni coalition and, of course, Sunni tribes and factions in Iraq and the region. This could be a perfect storm of holy shit in a region with the most vital resource to most of the world. All outcomes look to me to be bad ones, but I can’t think of a worse thing than for the US to completely disengage in a region so vital to us and basically just wash our hands and hope they all work things out. The only way we have any sort of leverage, control or input is if we stay engaged. If we give that up we basically just roll the dice and hope for the best. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/5 "2015-03-26T16:38:02Z")
> [@The\_Joker\_and\_the\_Thief](#): > > You need to clarify. Do you mean ignore them militarily? Or ignore them in an economic and political capacity as well? Ignore it militarily, mainly, an “it’s not our business” attitude. Obviously this would be unwise, but what if? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/6 "2015-03-26T16:49:06Z")
What do you think? ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/7 "2015-03-26T16:53:28Z")
I suspect a result similar to ignoring the Taliban from 1991-2001, only the global economic stakes are several magnitudes larger. ---
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/8 "2015-03-26T17:11:56Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > If the United States hadn’t been droning and striking ISIS and simply ignored it, what’s the worst that could happen? It is a headache for the Arab nations in the vicinity and even if the US left ISIS alone, surely they would see fit to fight ISIS on their own as much as possible? Last year, before the USA got involved, ISIS was expanding remarkably quickly, especially within Iraq. Of course Iraq attempted to fight back, but the Iraqi forces by themselves are hopeless. The government is corrupt. The soldiers are poorly trained, poorly equipped, unmotivated and disorganized. It’s hardly surprising that when the shooting started, many Iraqi brigades simply disintegrated or switched sides. So without outside assistance, ISIS would have continued rolling through Iran, and probably would have taken Baghdad. Of course the USA is not the only country that wants to contain ISIS. Iran does. Assad’s regime in Syria does. Turkey does. What would have happened if the USA had not gotten involved? Who knows. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/9 "2015-03-26T17:39:42Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > I suspect a result similar to ignoring the Taliban from 1991-2001, only the global economic stakes are several magnitudes larger. What happened because we ignored the Taliban? Please god don’t say 9/11. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/10 "2015-03-26T17:54:16Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > I suspect a result similar to ignoring the Taliban from 1991-2001, only the global economic stakes are several magnitudes larger. We could afford to ignore the Taliban. It was seeking to take control of Afghanistan, a country we have no vital interest in. ISIS affects more important areas. If it established itself in the areas it’s seeking control of, it would control a significant portion of the world’s oil supply and be a threat to several countries which are American allies. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/11 "2015-03-26T18:44:31Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > What happened because we ignored the Taliban? Please god don’t say 9/11. AQ was given a secure base and resources in which to train, plan and operate within the structure of a sovereign state. Hell, they were PART of the Afghan state under the Taliban, with their members in many leadership positions within the government. You know this, surly (you know, the whole reason we invaded Afghanistan)? 😕 ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/12 "2015-03-26T18:57:22Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > We could afford to ignore the Taliban. It was seeking to take control of Afghanistan, a country we have no vital interest in. > > ISIS affects more important areas. If it established itself in the areas it’s seeking control of, it would control a significant portion of the world’s oil supply and be a threat to several countries which are American allies. The Taliban were nationalists, where as ISIS are transnational jihadists. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/13 "2015-03-26T19:07:33Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > What happened because we ignored the Taliban? Please god don’t say 9/11. What happened because of Pearl Harbor? Please don’t say the American entry into World War II. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/14 "2015-03-26T19:08:43Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > What happened because we ignored the Taliban? Please god don’t say 9/11. I hope you’re not under the impression I blame the attacks on the Taliban. They were enablers, but not participants. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/15 "2015-03-26T19:15:08Z")
I confess to being mystified by the intricacies of the present Middle East wars. Isn’t U.S. fighting the _enemy_ of ISIS in Syria? What about the recent U.S. attack on ISIS positions in Tikrit? According to Reuters “The United States conditioned its entry into Iraq’s battle to retake Tikrit from Islamic State on the withdrawal of Iran-backed Shi’ite militias from the clearing operation, and they are no longer there.” Another source gives a different spin: “Three key Shi’ite militias pulled out of the Iraqi assault on the Islamist-held city of Tikrit in protest of U.S. airstrikes supporting the campaign.” It’s hard to retain enthusiasm for this fight if we can’t even figure out who are our allies and who are our enemies. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/16 "2015-03-26T19:15:37Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > I hope you’re not under the impression I blame the attacks on the Taliban. They were enablers, but not participants. I guess I got you mixed up with Ravenman and XT. Lol. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/17 "2015-03-26T19:24:34Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I guess I got you mixed up with Ravenman and XT. Lol. I guess you’re mixing up your posters, but sounds like you still don’t have a point. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/18 "2015-03-26T19:42:09Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I guess I got you mixed up with Ravenman and XT. Lol. So, I take it that you disagree with something I (and Ravenman?) said then? Or was this just your way of handwaving away the fact that Bryan sort of cut the legs out from under whatever you were trying to put on him? I really don’t know as this seems a strange reply from you, based on my past experience with you in various debates. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/19 "2015-03-26T19:52:23Z")
[QUOTE=septimus] What about the recent U.S. attack on ISIS positions in Tikrit? According to Reuters “The United States conditioned its entry into Iraq’s battle to retake Tikrit from Islamic State on the withdrawal of Iran-backed Shi’ite militias from the clearing operation, and they are no longer there.” Another source gives a different spin: “Three key Shi’ite militias pulled out of the Iraqi assault on the Islamist-held city of Tikrit in protest of U.S. airstrikes supporting the campaign.” [/QUOTE] I haven’t heard of militias pulling out, but it wouldn’t be surprising since many of the Shiite militias are backed by and supported by Iran, who is coordinating the re-taking of Tikrit. Something that they have failed to do while the US kind of held back and let them take the lead. We were ASKED by the Iraqi government and several other factions (including, ironically, several Sunni militia groups) to give aid in the form of air strikes, and as far as I know and as far as I’ve read, various Iraqi forces are moving forward again. Could you link to articles showing that this isn’t the case, because [this](http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/26/middleeast/iraq-isis-tikrit/index.html) CNN article seems to indicate that forces are still moving forward along with US and coalition air strikes, not that everyone has left and we are supporting no one. > [@](#): > > The thing is, Iraqi forces have tried multiple times to win back Tikrit since the group, which calls itself the Islamic State, conquered the city in June as part of its campaign to amass an expansive Islamic caliphate. And each time, so far, they’ve failed. > > The latest push began after Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi on March 1 ordered Iraqi forces to retake Tikrit and Salahuddin province. Militants have been under pressure ever since in the battleground city, which is the birthplace of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein and located about 160 kilometers (100 miles) north of Baghdad. > > ISIS responded by adjusting its positions in and around the city, hiding in buildings and other key infrastructure, said Saad al-Hadithi, a spokesman for al-Abadi. This movement led Iraq’s military to pause its operation, out of growing worries that a full-on invasion could produce heavy Iraqi military and some civilian casualties. > > The situation also spurred the Iraqi Prime Minister to request more help. > > Al-Hadithi explained that the U.S.-led coalition has “advanced technical” and “powerful” capabilities – not to mention the right munitions – that Iraq’s air force does not have to conduct precision airstrikes. > > Thus, it was al-Abadi who specifically asked for the strikes, based on what he heard from military commanders on the ground. > [@](#): > > f so, the decision would appear to be at odds with what was said just a few weeks ago by some leaders of the predominantly Shiite Muslim forces doing much of the fighting around Tikrit. Some of these Shiite fighters are getting help from the Iranian government, a longstanding and staunch U.S. foe. > > “We don’t need it, and we won’t need it,” Hadi Al-Amari, the head of the Hashd Al-Shaabi fighting force, said in mid-March. “Anyone who puts their faith in the international coalition to liberate Iraq is putting their faith on a mirage.” > > Thus, al-Abadi is taking a bit of a gamble by having the U.S.-led coalition play any part in this fight. > > He hopes it pays off by not only ousting ISIS from Tikrit, but setting the stage for Iraqi forces to take back an even bigger prize: Mosul. So, there is a lot of talk and counter talk going on here, with some of it for local consumption and some of it more reality based. It’s ironic that someone who said they didn’t need the coalitions help and that it would be no help at all is now asking for it, but again you have the difference between talking to your local audience who doesn’t want to hear about needing any stinking help (outside of the help Iran is giving, of course, but that’s different :p) and the realities of trying and failing without it several times. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/20 "2015-03-26T20:01:31Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > I confess to being mystified by the intricacies of the present Middle East wars. Isn’t U.S. fighting the _enemy_ of ISIS in Syria? In the Middle East, the enemy of your enemy of your enemy of your enemy of your enemy of your enemy of your enemy of your enemy…may or may not be your friend. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028.md?page=2)