# If the United States just ignored ISIS, what's the worst that could happen? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 26, 2015, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028 "2015-03-26T14:56:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/21 "2015-03-26T20:03:19Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > We could afford to ignore the Taliban. It was seeking to take control of Afghanistan, a country we have no vital interest in. > > ISIS affects more important areas. If it established itself in the areas it’s seeking control of, it would control a significant portion of the world’s oil supply and be a threat to several countries which are American allies. “Allies” however, several of which were more or less open actively engaged in aiding ISIS. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/22 "2015-03-26T20:20:52Z")
I predict that regardless of what we do, ISIS will control significant territory and use that control to play host to, as **Ravenman** put it, “whackos from other terrorist organizations” and cause “tens of thousands of innocent civilians [to] be murdered, or at best horribly mistreated, by an incompetent and vicious mob of pieces of human trash for many, many years to come.” I doubt very much that our (further) intervention in the region will have a net positive effect on those facts. I will be happy if I am proven wrong. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/23 "2015-03-26T20:59:07Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > I guess you’re mixing up your posters, but sounds like you still don’t have a point. I asked a question, which didn’t actually get answered…Don’t plan on rehashing how Afghanistan had nothing to do with 9-11. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/24 "2015-03-26T21:00:45Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I asked a question, which didn’t actually get answered…Don’t plan on rehashing how Afghanistan had nothing to do with 9-11. Riiiight. It was Cheney who ordered PNAC operatives to plant white phosphorous bombs in the WTC. I get your drift, wink wink. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/25 "2015-03-26T21:05:04Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I asked a question, which didn’t actually get answered…Don’t plan on rehashing how Afghanistan had nothing to do with 9-11. Um…Afghanistan kind of did, actually…the whole reason we invaded was because AQ was operating from Afghanistan and the Taliban refused to turn them over to us when we asked. I think you are thinking of Iraq, which had nothing to do with 9/11. But if you don’t want to talk about it except to, um, do whatever you are doing, then that’s fine. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/26 "2015-03-26T21:35:36Z")
Al Qaeda was operating in lots of places thiugh yes they were able to operate freely there. But as you say yourself we invaded because a denied exdradition request, not because the Taliban was involved in 9-11. But I think there’s been enough 9-11 threads so sorry I brought it up. I misundertood Bryan’s post I guess. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/27 "2015-03-26T21:38:51Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > So without outside assistance, ISIS would have continued rolling through Iran, and probably would have taken Baghdad. Nope. Never in a million years would ISIS have managed to take even an inch of Iranian land. And they [never really had a chance on Baghdad, either](http://pando.com/2014/10/02/the-war-nerd-islamic-state-is-sulking-on-the-edge-of-baghdad/). ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/28 "2015-03-26T21:39:09Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Al Qaeda was operating in lots of places thiugh yes they were able to operate freely there. But as you say yourself we invaded because a denied exdradition request, not because the Taliban was involved in 9-11. But I think there’s been enough 9-11 threads so sorry I brought it up. I misundertood Bryan’s post I guess. No worries…I don’t think anyone here thinks that the Taliban were directly involved in 9/11 if that’s what you were thinking. I’m actually surprised you thought Ravenman or Bryan thought that (I can see how you might think of me, since I’m such a ‘conservative’ and all :)). ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/29 "2015-03-26T21:57:37Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > What about the recent U.S. attack on ISIS positions in Tikrit? According to Reuters “The United States conditioned its entry into Iraq’s battle to retake Tikrit from Islamic State on the withdrawal of Iran-backed Shi’ite militias from the clearing operation, and they are no longer there.” Another source gives a different spin: “Three key Shi’ite militias pulled out of the Iraqi assault on the Islamist-held city of Tikrit in protest of U.S. airstrikes supporting the campaign.” I take it the Reuters article is [this one](http://news.yahoo.com/iran-backed-militias-not-involved-tikrit-clearing-u-142015050.html), and the other article is [this one](http://time.com/3760407/isis-tikrit-shiite-us/), from Time. Both are incredibly vague. One moment, that American fellow in the Reuters article brags about how the Shia militias “are no longer there” - the next moment, he acknowledged “that Shi’ite forces were still in the area, perhaps across the river, outside the city.” So are they packing up to go home for reals, or are they just sorta kinda lounging around on the sidelines, looking away awkwardly and avoiding eye contact while the Americans drop their bombs, waiting for a chance to rejoin the fight as soon as the Americans leave? Neither article mentions the supposedly withdrawn / withdrawing militias by name. The only militia that _is_ named, in the Time article, has clearly not withdrawn just yet: “The leader of the largest militia group in the battle, the Badr Organization, told the _Times_ that he was also **considering** pulling out” (my bolding). So who the hell really knows. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/30 "2015-03-26T22:11:11Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > It’s hard to retain enthusiasm for this fight if we can’t even figure out who are our allies and who are our enemies. Yeah, well, guess what, practically every military/political actor in the MENA is in that exact same boat. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/31 "2015-03-26T22:17:01Z")
After three weeks of fighting, Tikrit still has not fallen. [Now, finally, the U.S. is providing airstrikes.](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/26/world/middleeast/iraq-islamic-state-tikrit-united-states-airstrikes.html?_r=0) Apparently U.S. air support [was made contingent on the Iranian-backed Shi’a militias pulling out of the fight](http://abcnews.go.com/International/tikrit-offensive-iranian-general-steps-us-steps/story?id=29930338), [which they have](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/27/world/middleeast/iraq-us-air-raids-islamic-state-isis.html?_r=0). To whatever American general or diplomat decided to make that a condition, apparently the worst that could happen if the U.S. ignores ISIS is not that ISIS could survive, but that the Iraqis could finish them off **with Iranian help.** And then Iraq ends up even more firmly within Iran’s sphere of influence than it is now. And in the Syrian Civil War it would strengthen Assad, who is an Iranian ally already. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2015, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/32 "2015-03-26T22:47:16Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > After three weeks of fighting, Tikrit still has not fallen. [Now, finally, the U.S. is providing airstrikes.](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/26/world/middleeast/iraq-islamic-state-tikrit-united-states-airstrikes.html?_r=0) Apparently U.S. air support [was made contingent on the Iranian-backed Shi’a militias pulling out of the fight](http://abcnews.go.com/International/tikrit-offensive-iranian-general-steps-us-steps/story?id=29930338), [which they have](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/27/world/middleeast/iraq-us-air-raids-islamic-state-isis.html?_r=0). To whatever American general or diplomat decided to make that a condition, apparently the worst that could happen if the U.S. ignores ISIS is not that ISIS could survive, but that the Iraqis could finish them off **with Iranian help.** And then Iraq ends up even more firmly within Iran’s sphere of influence than it is now. And in the Syrian Civil War it would strengthen Assad, who is an Iranian ally already. Your spin on this is interesting. My own take (or spin) is that the Shiite militias being directed by Iraq specifically were opposed to any US or coalition support in their attack and said they could do it alone (and in fact said that our help would be less than useless). After failing several times the government of Iraq has asked for our collective aid in providing air strikes and intelligence support of the Iraqi army and militias not aligned with Iran. Basically, Obama et al or whoever devised this strategy look to be pretty smart from where I’m sitting, and if the Iraqi government with US aid can take the city NOW, it’s going to make the Iranian backed MILITIAS look a bit bad…which is all to the good, wouldn’t you say? I mean, I haven’t heard many good things about how the militias are treating either prisoners or civilians (especially Sunni civilians) in the area, so not sure why we should be doing much to make them look better especially when they specifically were opposed to us doing anything at all. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2015, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/33 "2015-08-15T22:41:30Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > ISIS affects more important areas. If it established itself in the areas it’s seeking control of, it would control a significant portion of the world’s oil supply and be a threat to several countries which are American allies. True, but ISIS would have a hard time selling the oil. It can’t exactly send tankers sailing. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2015, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/34 "2015-08-15T23:08:26Z")
If we didn’t race in to police the areA maybe countries that are actually threatened by the so-called Islamic State would actually do something instead of waiting for us to save their asses. While we bomb the shit out of them we create the best recruiting tool fhey could ever imagine. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2015, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028/35 "2015-08-15T23:48:43Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > True, but ISIS would have a hard time selling the oil. It can’t exactly send tankers sailing. Taking that oil off the market causes major market disruption. If/when they control enough it’s hard for others to ramp up supply enough in the short to moderate term to make up for it. The associated price spike affects every industrialized economy to some extent. Europe, Japan, China, and India as heavy net importers are heavily affected. Crippling those economies has widespread, worldwide economic impact. You think the worldwide recession caused by a spike in US mortgage defaults was bad. Of course it wouldn’t get that bad. Either people keep buying even though it’s ISIS or a significant chunk of the total world’s military power drops on ISIS. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-the-united-states-just-ignored-isis-whats-the-worst-that-could-happen/716028.md?page=1)