For the somewhat elastic definition of the word “continent”. For sure he missed the mainland of North and South America. But if those islands are not part of that continent, which continent are they part of? “None” is a fine answer in some folks’ continental taxonomy, but not everyone’s.
Sorta. Agree 100% that hitting CentAm was a long way farther west.
But the collection of Caribbean islands between the Bahamas to the north and Trinidad and Tobago to the far south form a kinda dense obstacle course to run through while proceeding generally westbound. He’s very lucky all those islands existed.
Here’s a decent close-up map of the area Columbus is thought to have made initial landfall. To this day it’s uncertain exactly which island it was although there is a decent amount of academic consensus. Guanahani : Candidate Landfalls - Wikipedia.
That area is a whole meshwork of small islands and he’d likely have gotten close enough to see something of an island while going more or less westbound had he been at a slightly different latitude.
50 miles farther north and he’d have run into what’s now Miami after a couple more days’ sailing. He could have been up to about 300 miles south of where he was and would have run into something either a week sooner, or maybe 3 weeks later. What’s now Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba are all in his way. The good news about them is that unlike the very flat Bahamas, those island are mountainous. Which triggers different and obvious clouds, and the high terrain can be seen from a farther distance than the barely dry land of the Bahamas whose highest point is ~10 feet above sea level.
At least assuming his less than perfect westbound course-keeping by terrible luck didn’t have him unknowingly zigging and zagging between the islands keeping them all just out of sight. That would suck.
If he was south of present-day Puerto Rico, so about 300 miles south of where he really was, the islands remain mountainous, but get much smaller and sparser and he could have slipped between them unknowingly. Or found one small useless 1/4-mile wide 100 foot tall rocky tree-covered bump sticking out of the water and not known what to do about that.
If he had the bad luck to slip through the BVI-to-Tobago arc without sighting land, then he’s pretty well screwed. As you said. It’s well over a 1,000 miles to CentAm.
Although if he was ~250 miles south of Puerto Rico, so about 550 miles south of his actual latitude, and he just barely missed Tobago to his north without sighting it, he would be close aboard the South American mainland and roughly paralleling it westbound. With just a little course drift south, or by chasing floating evidence of land, he might, just might have brushed South America proper in what’s now Venezuela, Guyana, or far northeastern Colombia near Barranquilla. All of that coast is pancake-flat, so unhelpful to spot from a low boat well out to sea.
The nature of the winds in that area suggests that if he did cross the windward island arc without sighting land, his track would have trended north of due west. Leading to him driving across the trackless emptiness of the central Caribbean then finally trending even more northerly after missing Cuba. And then stuck in the central GOM with dying mutinying crew.
Assuming counterfactually no mutiny and more food / water than they actually had so they could have sailed on another month before encountering distress, that leaves an interesting question. ...
What would a navigator of his era thought as they found the prevailing winds slowly changing from slightly south of westbound to due west to north of westbound and then to northwest-bound? A hundred years later the idea of “trade winds” and why and how they worked was well-established. They reliably powered the next 300 years of global exploration, conquest, and commerce.
Could Columbus have recognized that these are signs of approaching a major body of land? if so how might he use that? If you just blindly follow the trades from e.g. someplace a bit north of Venezuela you’ll make a gigantic tour around the center of the Caribbean and GOM then finally make landfall going northeast-bound somewhere between, say modern Houston and modern Tampa. That would be a very long trip in a slow boat. Like as long as from the Canaries to the Windward Islands chain you missed.