# If they're found, will anyone be convinced? (Another WMD thread) **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 20, 2003, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-theyre-found-will-anyone-be-convinced-another-wmd-thread/183181 "2003-06-20T15:20:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2003, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-theyre-found-will-anyone-be-convinced-another-wmd-thread/183181/1 "2003-06-20T15:20:46Z")
Hey folks. I’ve been lurking for the better part of two years, and this’ll be my first OP. This has been brought up tangentially in a couple threads, but from what I’ve seen, there hasn’t been any focused discussion on this particular point. So, this is really simple. Let’s say tomorrow someone finds tons and tons of chem and bio weapons stashed someonewhere in the middle of the Iraqi desert. What are the odds that people (actual citizens) and the various governments of the world will actually believe it? I could add different scenarios as to who, and where, and how, but I’d like to keep things as general as possible. Let’s face it, people have been suggesting (and even expecting, it seems, in a lot of cases) that Bush, et al will or should just plant the damned ‘evidence’ and get the searching over with. So, if WMDs are found (legitemately), will anyone actually believe that they weren’t planted? It would probably be helpful if everyone could avoid the “Bush is Satan” and “Bush is the Savior of Everything Pure and Good” stances in this thread. -Joe ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2003, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-theyre-found-will-anyone-be-convinced-another-wmd-thread/183181/2 "2003-06-20T15:39:04Z")
After all the lies? Not a chance. The only evidence that will make a difference to me now is huge quantities of weaponised materials along with a delivery system capable of reaching the UK, prefrably one ready to go at 45 minutes notice, and verified by UN inspectors. I’m too deafened by the incessant cries of wolf do do otherwise. I’m expecting them to produce handy “evidence” sooner or later. Whatever WMD’s may have existed are in terrorist hands now, thanks to this incompetently fought war and fitful peace. Frankly, as the allies showed no interest in securing supposed WMD sites I think they knew it was bullshit all along. ---
**Author:** ![Desmostylus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c57346/32.png) [@Desmostylus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Desmostylus)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2003, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-theyre-found-will-anyone-be-convinced-another-wmd-thread/183181/3 "2003-06-20T15:49:49Z")
It’s getting to an interesting stage. The CIA is pissed off that the military can’t find anything, so the CIA is going in to do the job “right”. [CIA muscles in on WMD search](http://afr.com/world/2003/06/20/FFXHFHEN3HD.html) > [@](#): > > Relations between the military and Central Intelligence Agency personnel in Baghdad have been strained. Some officials complain privately that military commanders have given priority to achieving stability and protecting US troops, rather than the weapons search. > > CIA director George Tenet is assuming a growing role in resolving the mystery. Increasingly, officials are inclined to think the answers about Iraq’s weapons program are more likely to be found in newly discovered documents and interrogations of Iraqi scientists and officials, rather than searches of suspected weapon sites. > > Intelligence officials complain that so far, military interrogations of former senior regime officials have yielded little, while co-operative Iraqis who came forward claiming to have leads have received comparatively little attention. The military’s failure to prevent looting at some suspected weapons-program centres, such as the Tuwaitha nuclear facility, has angered some officials in Washington. See, the military just doesn’t look hard enough or ask the right questions. Trust the Tenet and the CIA. As if. ---
**Author:** ![Apos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/838e76/32.png) [@Apos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Apos)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2003, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-theyre-found-will-anyone-be-convinced-another-wmd-thread/183181/4 "2003-06-20T16:19:12Z")
[http://slate.msn.com/id/2084602/](http://slate.msn.com/id/2084602/) As Michael Kinsley points out, it pretty much doesn’t matter at this point. Whether they’re found or not, the US public doesn’t care. A good portion think they’ve already found some (maybe Bush’s extremely cynical misleading statement in Poland has something to do with that?) The truck angle has fizzled. But even if they do find something now, it wont be because they had good intelligence supporting it. > [@](#): > > It’s obvious that the Bush administration had no good evidence to back up its dire warnings. And even if months of desperate searching ultimately turn up a thing or two, this will hardly vindicate the administration’s claim to have known it all along. The administration itself in effect now agrees that actually finding the weapons doesn’t matter. It asserts that the war can be justified on humanitarian grounds alone, and that Saddam may have destroyed those weapons on his way out the door. (Exactly what we wanted him to do, by the way, now repositioned as a dirty trick.) These are not the sorts of things you say if you know those weapons exist. ---
**Author:** ![Sofa\_King](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/58956e/32.png) [@Sofa\_King](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sofa_King)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2003, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-theyre-found-will-anyone-be-convinced-another-wmd-thread/183181/5 "2003-06-20T17:03:18Z")
Well, it doesn’t matter in the sense that the knuckle draggers don’t care and the bleeding hearts who do care already knew. Like the election of 2000, the issue is so polarized that the facts themselves are becoming increasingly irrelevant. I will, however, point out one salient fact which often gets overlooked in these debates. If the Bush Administration were really so willing to deceive and manufacture evidence as some of us have intimated, there wouldn’t be a problem now because _we would have found something_. The very fact that they are openly disclosing that they aren’t finding anything is a small indication that there is still an element of integrity left in Bush’s Presidency. That indicates to me that President Bush was willing to take a big, big risk to get done what he wanted to get done, facts be damned. But at least he’s also honest enough to… try to weasel out of his apparent mistake rather than to overtly plant evidence. Here’s the funny thing: the only way the President can even be partially excused for this mess in my own mind is if we _never_ find those weapons. The minute we find something after all this time, I’ll be suspicious. If evidence does show up, particularly if it is announced at an opportune time (my money is on the weekend before the Democratic Convention), I will always wonder if the President changed his mind about not planting evidence. There is a fine line between misrepresentation of facts and outright deception. I’m reasonably certain now that the President was willing to misrepresent the facts. At this point, finding something won’t even begin to vindicate him in my eyes until I’m fully convinced that it’s not an attempt to deceive. And even then, I doubt I’ll see it as a vindication in light of the gross misrepresentation and incompetent diplomacy which got us into this mess in the first place. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2003, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-theyre-found-will-anyone-be-convinced-another-wmd-thread/183181/6 "2003-06-20T19:00:50Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Merijeek \* > Let’s say tomorrow someone finds tons and tons of chem and bio weapons stashed someonewhere in the middle of the Iraqi desert. What are the odds that people (actual citizens) and the various governments of the world will actually believe it? Depends on who finds them, how they found them, and whether or not the find is independently verified. For instance, if US forces claim to have found a massive cache of anthrax in an underground Baghdad bunker, but no one else is allowed to inspect the find, there will be a lot of skepticism from the rest of the world. Of course, if we find _anything_ – even if it’s an ancient copy of Baghdad Bob’s Junior Home Chemistry Kit – you can bet the Bushistas will be waving it around for a massive bout of self-congratulations. ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2003, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-theyre-found-will-anyone-be-convinced-another-wmd-thread/183181/7 "2003-06-20T19:07:29Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by rjung \* > \*\*Depends on who finds them, how they found them, and whether or not the find is independently verified. For instance, if US forces claim to have found a massive cache of anthrax in an underground Baghdad bunker, but no one else is allowed to inspect the find, there will be a lot of skepticism from the rest of the world. > > Of course, if we find _anything_ – even if it’s an ancient copy of Baghdad Bob’s Junior Home Chemistry Kit – you can bet the Bushistas will be waving it around for a massive bout of self-congratulations. \*\* Okay, specifics, then. A big cache is found in the desert. Whether it’s found by the CIA, US Armed Forces, or even the Brits. Will it matter? Every independent verification in the world could happen…would anyone actually believe it? Personally, I’m not sure I would. -Joe ---
**Author:** ![TheMemeWarrior](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/cdc98d/32.png) [@TheMemeWarrior](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheMemeWarrior)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2003, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-theyre-found-will-anyone-be-convinced-another-wmd-thread/183181/8 "2003-06-20T19:14:24Z")
Depends how big a cache. I don’t trust Bush but I’m no conspiricy nut either. Any scrap found would be a huge political victory for Bush though. As long as he gets something he can point at he’ll be able to convince most of the american public. As to why he hasn’t faked it already, there is no need he’s feeling no real domestic heat on the issue, this could change but right now there is no reason to take the risk. ---
**Author:** ![alenar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/49beb7/32.png) [@alenar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alenar)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2003, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-theyre-found-will-anyone-be-convinced-another-wmd-thread/183181/9 "2003-06-20T20:08:40Z")
Keep in mind that, at least according to a recent poll, a third of the American public believes that WMDs have already been found, or even more depressingly, 22% believe that Iraq used them during this recent war. The [Program on International Policy Attitudes](http://www.pipa.org), recently released the results of a [poll](http://www.pipa.org/OnlineReports/Iraq/Iraqqaire_5_03.pdf), carried out during May 14-18, asking a number of questions on the war in Iraq. Among the results: _Q9. Is it your impression that Iraq did or did not use chemical or biological weapons in the war that just ended?_ Iraq did…22% Iraq did not…69% (No answer)…9% _Q10. Since the war with Iraq ended, is it your impression that the US has or has not found Iraqi weapons of mass destruction?_ US has…34% US has not…59% (No answer)…7% According to the [press release](http://pipa.org/whatsnew/html/new_6_04_03.html): _“Among Republicans who said they follow international affairs very closely – and thus may also be more exposed to headlines reporting promising leads – an even larger percentage – 55% – said weapons have been found, with just 45% saying they have not.”_ Cognitive dissonance, indeed. ---
**Author:** ![Beagle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/85f322/32.png) [@Beagle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beagle)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2003, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-theyre-found-will-anyone-be-convinced-another-wmd-thread/183181/10 "2003-06-20T20:30:52Z")
A mea culpa, I believed that Iraq had an ongoing WMD program based not so much on the administration’s claims as a history of such claims from a variety of sources. If chemical weapons are WMD–eh?–“Saddam used them, blah, blah.” “He got the germ samples from the US…” He was “six months from a nuke in the early 1980s.” If I recall I think I based my hesitant support for the war on a desire to get rid of Saddam and end the sanctions at once. But, I argued that he had some kind of WMD program. I figured he might have thousands of gallons of precursers laying around, ready mix if you will. So, would I accept evidence? Well, of course, yes. And, no. Now I want a strict chain of custody, witnesses to the discovery, and lots more criteria met to be enumerated later according to the nature of the discovery. Who knows what’s really going on? I’d prefer that Bush was a big liar than many of the alternatives. ---
**Author:** ![Avalonian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ee7513/32.png) [@Avalonian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Avalonian)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2003, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-theyre-found-will-anyone-be-convinced-another-wmd-thread/183181/11 "2003-06-20T20:53:24Z")
Damn, but those statistics are depressing, **alenar**. Very depressing. To answer the OP, at this point I would believe a significant WMD find if and only if it was verified independently of those who have a horse in the race, so to speak. Tony Blair, and to some extent the Bush Administration, are gambling large chunks of their political future on the results of the search for WMD in Iraq. If only for that reason alone, I’d prefer an independent body of nations (the UN comes to mind) that could independently examine and verify any finds made by the “coalition” troops. The pile of misdirection and misinformation coming from those who “sold” the war to the public is getting bigger and bigger, to the point that I simply don’t trust what they tell me any more. I _can’t_ trust it. ---
**Author:** ![Paco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a6a055/32.png) [@Paco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paco)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2003, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-theyre-found-will-anyone-be-convinced-another-wmd-thread/183181/12 "2003-06-20T20:54:58Z")
It’s gonna take hard evidence for me to believe anything, but that doesn’t matter. A majority of the people I know (this is just my opinion on what I have witnessed where I live, no cite) of Americans believe that we have already found WMD. When told that we haven’t they reply with but didn’t you see how happy they were? Tearing down all those pics of Saddam and whatnot. That’s not why we were told we were going to war. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2003, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-theyre-found-will-anyone-be-convinced-another-wmd-thread/183181/13 "2003-06-20T21:53:53Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Merijeek \* > A big cache is found in the desert. Whether it’s found by the CIA, US Armed Forces, or even the Brits. Will it matter? Every independent verification in the world could happen…would anyone actually believe it? If you gave an independent UN inspector team free rein to check it out, and they corroborate the find, then yes, most folks in the world would believe it. Despite what Bush and the Republicans might think, the UN still has a lot of respect from the rest of the planet. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2003, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-theyre-found-will-anyone-be-convinced-another-wmd-thread/183181/14 "2003-06-20T22:56:30Z")
I was and am still expecting/hoping thatsome will be found. Of course my doubt increases everyday that they aren’t found. Today I learned, interestingly enough, that Clinton’s version of the ObL-SH connection worked the other way around with ObL as the supplier of VX nerve gas precursor, empta, and SH as the recipient. We bombed a pharmaceutical factory in Sudan mistakenly to prevent ObL from giving the WoMD that he _already had_ to SH _who didn’t have them_. I guess that’s the difference between Dems and Repubs. As to what the rest of th eworld would think… There’s a certain portion of the population that’d never belive anything coming out of the Bush White house. A slightly smaller portion who’d never believe anything coming out of the White House period. I think that many people who’re riding the fence would be willing to accept the find as fact. It might lessen the US’s loss of credibility, so I hope we do find the WoMD and quickly w/ independent verification. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2003, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-theyre-found-will-anyone-be-convinced-another-wmd-thread/183181/15 "2003-06-20T23:00:46Z")
From **Desmostylus** ’ article: > [@](#): > > Pentagon officials have stressed that it might take months or years to develop an accurate picture of Iraq’s covert weapons programs. One official notes that the search is complicated by the fact that, in addition to searching for weapons, the Iraq Survey Group has been given responsibility for investigating war crimes by former Iraqi officials, as well as the regime’s connections to terrorist groups. Dissappointing ---
**Author:** ![Alien](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/57b2e6/32.png) [@Alien](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alien)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2003, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-theyre-found-will-anyone-be-convinced-another-wmd-thread/183181/16 "2003-06-20T23:55:52Z")
. I came across an interview with Hans Blix a few days ago, where he claimed that inspectors _never_ have found any undeclared WMD’s, not even during 1991-98. > [@](#): > > The Iraqis were obliged to declare and to tell UNSCOM and us where things were, and they did. Even the large number of chemical weapons that UNSCOM destroyed, they were not declared, but the sites where declared. So, what I mean is that neither UNSCOM nor we actually found hidden supplies of weapons. And, when the US army has gone in now, they seem to be very amazed that they didn’t stumble upon on huge supplies of weapons. Well, if they asked UNSCOM or asked us, we would have said, we too didn’t stumble upon any weapons. [the interview, quote is from 4/5 down the page](http://english.daralhayat.com/Spec/18-06-2003/Article-20030613-c2530096-c0a8-01fc-0036-a6d6026ecb69/story.html) I have always though that after G.W. I (in 1991) the inspectors moved in, and went from site to site and destroyed or sealed what they found. Then at the end they made a list of what they had found and what they expected to find - and found some discrepancies. According to Blix everything they found back then was on locations declared upfront by the regime. Go reckon. Is it so? Another interesting quote from the site: > [@](#): > > After 1994, nothing has really been destroyed, or very little, by their weapons. It has been equipment, facilities, etc. Now, if we for a moment think of the assumption, that they did destroy the things they claim they destroyed in the summer of 1991. Why did they then all these years, conduct themselves, as we have seen? Because the whole world, and I too, felt that they were changing the numbers. They are saying one thing one day, and another on another, and they deny access when UNSCOM wanted to get in? I mean, why did they do that? I mean, there were a number of places where they denied access, after I arrived, the inspectors entered, there was absolutely nothing. > > … > > Well, I’m going speculate on it. One speculation I have is that it related to pride, that Saddam Hussein was a very proud person, and apart from being a very cruel person, a ruthless as is a proud person. And, that he felt there were inspectors were like him too because they had to take some of that. But, not one inch further than the Iraqi legal interpretation as well. And, hence, they would stop the inspections even if there were nothing they were hiding. They would stop them.