# If universal health care is implemented, how much will it cost me? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 5, 2006, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-universal-health-care-is-implemented-how-much-will-it-cost-me/351483 "2006-04-05T22:09:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![astro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9dc877/32.png) [@astro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astro)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2006, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-universal-health-care-is-implemented-how-much-will-it-cost-me/351483/1 "2006-04-05T22:09:43Z")
Let’s say we implement universal health care in the US. How much are our individual tax bills likely to go up per person? In other words what’s my annual “health tax” going to be? [According to this](http://www.nchc.org/facts/cost.shtml) health care costs in the US are over 6,000 per person annually, which frankly seems astounding. Will my effective tax be something like Astro + 2 kids = 18,000 annually? > [@](#): > > By several measures, health care spending continues to rise at the fastest rate in our history. > > In 2004 (the latest year data are available), total national health expenditures rose 7.9 percent – over three times the rate of inflation (1). Total spending was $1.9 TRILLION in 2004, or $6,280 per person (1). Total health care spending represented 16 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP). > > U.S. health care spending is expected to increase at similar levels for the next decade reaching $4 TRILLION in 2015, or 20 percent of GDP (2). > > In 2005, employer health insurance premiums increased by 9.2 percent - nearly three times the rate of inflation. The annual premium for an employer health plan covering a family of four averaged nearly $11,000. The annual premium for single coverage averaged over $4,000 (3). > > Experts agree that our health care system is riddled with inefficiencies, excessive administrative expenses, inflated prices, poor management, and inappropriate care, waste and fraud. These problems significantly increase the cost of medical care and health insurance for employers and workers and affect the security of families. ---
**Author:** ![Birdmonster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/71e660/32.png) [@Birdmonster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Birdmonster)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2006, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-universal-health-care-is-implemented-how-much-will-it-cost-me/351483/2 "2006-04-05T22:15:12Z")
From what I’ve been told, the whole “baby boomers are now senior citizens” thing is going to keep health costs climbing steadily. And we’re just getting started. The $6,000 figure sounds reasonable to me. For every 10 people like me (who didn’t make a trip to the doctor last year), there’s someone with a $60,000 surgery. Just an example that I made up shamelessly, but I’m sure that the folks on the upper end of health care spending are raising that average dramatically. ---
**Author:** ![Birdmonster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/71e660/32.png) [@Birdmonster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Birdmonster)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2006, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-universal-health-care-is-implemented-how-much-will-it-cost-me/351483/3 "2006-04-05T22:17:26Z")
Sorry—just realized I didn’t come close to answering the OP. Time to smack myself. ---
**Author:** ![Nobody](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/94ad74/32.png) [@Nobody](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nobody)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2006, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-universal-health-care-is-implemented-how-much-will-it-cost-me/351483/4 "2006-04-05T22:44:38Z")
I’ve been wondering about this myself lately. I’ve also wondered, if it was ever emplimented, how it change the business landscape. I mean, right now, one incentive to choose one work place over another sometimes is the benefits package, but if healthcare is now picked up by the tax payer, now what? Also, would there be an increase in part time work? Since full time status would no longer be required to receive health insurance, I’m sure there would be plenty of people who would figure that they could make a decent living, and pay all the bills with a part time job. Right? ---
**Author:** ![Eva\_Luna](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e495f1/32.png) [@Eva\_Luna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eva_Luna)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2006, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-universal-health-care-is-implemented-how-much-will-it-cost-me/351483/5 "2006-04-05T23:49:53Z")
[You might want to see how Massachusetts does.](http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/05/us/05mass.html?_r=1&oref=slogin) ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2006, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-universal-health-care-is-implemented-how-much-will-it-cost-me/351483/6 "2006-04-06T00:39:15Z")
As it stands about 50% of healthcare costs are paid for by the government, as opposed to the 70-90% you see in countries with universal healthcare. We spend 16% of GDP on healthcare, so assuming 80% is spent publicly in a public system that means 13% of your gross income will go to healthcare (as opposed to the 8% that you currently pay). That sounds like alot but theoretically (theoretically at least) you’d get a raise because your employer wouldn’t have to take money out of your salary to pay for private healthcare anymore. plus there are issues like ‘would universal healthcare cut down on costs’, which some feel it would by lowering overhead and negotiating precription drug prices. So there is no simple answer. The generic answer is just 16% of your income, but the real answer is more complex. Birdmonster - I’ve heard the statement that 80% of healthcare spending is spent on 20% of people, the majority of us use little healthcare most of the time. I don’t know if it is true or not though, and don’t have time to google it. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2006, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-universal-health-care-is-implemented-how-much-will-it-cost-me/351483/7 "2006-04-06T00:41:11Z")
> [@Master Control](#): > > I’ve been wondering about this myself lately. I’ve also wondered, if it was ever emplimented, how it change the business landscape. I mean, right now, one incentive to choose one work place over another sometimes is the benefits package, but if healthcare is now picked up by the tax payer, now what? Also, would there be an increase in part time work? Since full time status would no longer be required to receive health insurance, I’m sure there would be plenty of people who would figure that they could make a decent living, and pay all the bills with a part time job. Right? You’d have to examine other nations to see as they all have universal systems arelady. I know that the Europeans have alot more leisure and vacation time than we do in america (we average about 10 days a year, they get 20-40), but I don’t know if it is tied into healthcare in any way. ---
**Author:** ![Muffin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muffin/32/4341_2.png) [@Muffin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Muffin)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2006, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-universal-health-care-is-implemented-how-much-will-it-cost-me/351483/8 "2006-04-06T00:58:12Z")
It would depend on your health care system, your tax system, and your individual circumstances, but if properly done, an everyman’s tax bill should go down a tad. Ne shitteth vous pas. > [@Muffin](#): > > When compared to Americans, Canadians live longer, live healthily longer, pay less individually for health care, pay less through our taxes for health care, and overall devote less of our GDP for health care. That’s what socialized health care is about in Canada – better health for all for less cost. > > Canadians live longer than Americans: > 79.3 years = Canadian life expectancy (2001) > 77.0 years = American life expectancy (2001) > > Canadians enjoy better health longer than Americans: > 69.9 years = Canadian healthy life expectancy (2001) > 67.4 = American healthy life expectancy (2001) > > Canadian individuals and insurers do not pay as much as American individuals and insurers: > 28 = Canadian private expenditure on health as % of total expenditure on health (2000) > 55.7 = American private expenditure on health as % of total expenditure on health (2000) > > Canadian taxpayers do not pay as much for health care as the American taxpayers: > $1826 = Canadian per capita government expenditure on health in international dollars (2000) > $1992 = American per capita government expenditure on health in international dollars (2000) > > Less of Canada’s GDP is spent on health than the USA’s: > 9.1 = Canadian total expenditure on health as % of GDP (2000) > 13 = American total expenditure on health as % of GDP (2000) > > World Health Organization stats: [http://www.who.int/whr/2002/annex/en/](http://www.who.int/whr/2002/annex/en/) [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5456070&postcount=10](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5456070&postcount=10) ---
**Author:** ![Harriet\_the\_Spry](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/e56c9b/32.png) [@Harriet\_the\_Spry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Harriet_the_Spry)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2006, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-universal-health-care-is-implemented-how-much-will-it-cost-me/351483/9 "2006-04-06T01:36:01Z")
It is possible to argue that on average, you pretty much have to come out even. Currently, the typical employer-insured person does the following: -Contributes toward premiums of health insurance. -Receives lower wages than would be paid w/o health insurance -Pays taxes which support health care for the needy and elderly -Private health insurance premiums (and probably some taxes) are higher due to -the costs of providing services to those not covered by private or gov’t plans. With universal health insurance, the only additional group that would be paid for is uninsured people currently forgoing needed medical care. I’m not sure how much it is, but surely a small number compared to the categories above. And even if you are healthy now, it is not fair to take a short-term perspective on this. Most health care expenses are incurred at the end of life, and none of us can predict who will have an expensive death. There is the potential for savings with universal insurance, and it might also increase the efficiency of our economy if employers could get out of the health insurance business. Employer health insurance is reportedly one of the main things that is sinking GM, for example. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2006, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-universal-health-care-is-implemented-how-much-will-it-cost-me/351483/10 "2006-04-06T02:07:56Z")
From the quoted link in the OP: _“Experts agree that our health care system is riddled with inefficiencies, excessive administrative expenses, inflated prices, poor management, and inappropriate care, waste and fraud.”_ Now - put the federal government completely in charge of the system, and ask yourself what the impact will be on all of those problems. :eek: These are only humble predictions, but I think the average family that currently has poor to no health care coverage will generally save money or break even. The family with decent coverage will pay more under “universal health care”, sometimes for less coverage than it’s getting now. This is not to say that major changes are not needed to the current system, and some type of universal health care is probably inevitable. But based on the fed’s record (of service and of estimating the cost of programs), you can take any predictions of cost and at least double them, even in the short term. The government will be tougher than insurance companies in mandating lower costs? The government will crack down on unneeded procedures and drugs? Hah! ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2006, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-universal-health-care-is-implemented-how-much-will-it-cost-me/351483/11 "2006-04-06T02:27:58Z")
While this thread was properly started in General Questions, it appears that it will ultimately do better in Great Debates. Moved. **samclem** GQ moderator ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2006, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-universal-health-care-is-implemented-how-much-will-it-cost-me/351483/12 "2006-04-06T05:03:11Z")
**Eva** ’s point is well made. That plan is close to what I have been touting for years. My one proviso is that insurance companies be required to offer the same plan for the same price whether you buy as part of megaconglom or a an individual. I’d toy with reducing the payroll tax benefit and shifting those dollars into further subsidizing the purchase of insurance by lower to low middle income non-poverty individuals. Universal health insurance does not necessarily mean a universal payor or specifically a federally run system. We can use the systems we have by creating indivdual mandates coupled with graduated supports allowing indivuals to buy on their own with the same advantages of megacorp group purchasing power. It may actually save money. Moreover, if it reduces the healthcare burden on businesses, it may stimulate the economy. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2006, 5:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-universal-health-care-is-implemented-how-much-will-it-cost-me/351483/13 "2006-04-06T05:10:24Z")
Bear in mind that compared to the rest of the world, American doctors pull in huge salaries. Everywhere else, being a doctor is an honest yet unexceptional middle-class job - a decent way to support a family, but don’t expect to buy a yacht. I have a feeling a great deal of the difference in health-care expenses comes from that. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2006, 6:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-universal-health-care-is-implemented-how-much-will-it-cost-me/351483/14 "2006-04-06T06:24:43Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Bear in mind that compared to the rest of the world, American doctors pull in huge salaries. Everywhere else, being a doctor is an honest yet unexceptional middle-class job - a decent way to support a family, but don’t expect to buy a yacht. I have a feeling a great deal of the difference in health-care expenses comes from that. You’d be wrong. > [@NEJM](#): > > Results In 1999, health administration costs totaled at least $294.3 billion in the United States, or $1,059 per capita, as compared with $307 per capita in Canada. After exclusions, administration accounted for 31.0 percent of health care expenditures in the United States and 16.7 percent of health care expenditures in Canada. Canada’s national health insurance program had overhead of 1.3 percent; the overhead among Canada’s private insurers was higher than that in the United States (13.2 percent vs. 11.7 percent). Providers’ administrative costs were far lower in Canada. [Cite](http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/abstract/349/8/768) A single payer system, with efficiency like Canada’s, would save all of us a lot. And for those who say the government can’t do anything efficiently, consider Social Security. In addition, letting people without insurance today have better access to preventative care will save lots of money in catching problems before they explode into bigger, more expensive problems. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2006, 6:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-universal-health-care-is-implemented-how-much-will-it-cost-me/351483/15 "2006-04-06T06:45:06Z")
So how much do Canadian doctors make? Your quote doesn’t tell me that. Look, you misunderstand where I’m soming from. Here in Israel we have a much more efficient healthcare system the US, or most anywhere else in the world for that matter. However, from my personal experience it seems that Israeli doctors make less money than their American counterparts, both in absolute terms and relative to the rest of the job market. This can’t be a coincidence. ---
**Author:** ![astro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9dc877/32.png) [@astro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astro)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2006, 7:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-universal-health-care-is-implemented-how-much-will-it-cost-me/351483/16 "2006-04-06T07:05:51Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > So how much do Canadian doctors make? Your quote doesn’t tell me that. > > Look, you misunderstand where I’m coming from. Here in Israel we have a much more efficient health care system the US, or most anywhere else in the world for that matter. However, from my personal experience it seems that Israeli doctors make less money than their American counterparts, both in absolute terms and relative to the rest of the job market. This can’t be a coincidence. US docs probably do make a good bit more than the rest of the world’s docs, but a good chunk of that gross income for doctors in US private practice is eaten up in the administrative costs of running an office, paying off college loan debts (which is often hundreds of thousands of dollars) and malpractice insurance which can run from a few thousand for low risk specialities to well over a hundred thousand dollars annually for higher risk specialities like obstetrics. ---
**Author:** ![uglybeech](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/82dd89/32.png) [@uglybeech](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/uglybeech)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2006, 7:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-universal-health-care-is-implemented-how-much-will-it-cost-me/351483/17 "2006-04-06T07:44:53Z")
On _60 minutes_ this week they stated that GM’s employee healthcare premiums added $1400 dollars _per car_. One of the main factors hampering their global competitiveness. I can’t figure out for the life of me why companies aren’t screaming for gov’t sponsored healthcare. ---
**Author:** ![SentientMeat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@SentientMeat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SentientMeat)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2006, 7:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-universal-health-care-is-implemented-how-much-will-it-cost-me/351483/18 "2006-04-06T07:56:33Z")
> [@Wesley Clark](#): > > As it stands about 50% of healthcare costs are paid for by the government, as opposed to the 70-90% you see in countries with universal healthcare. And note that the US still spends [more **tax** per capita](http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/hea_hea_car_fun_pub_per_cap) than many such countries, _without even achieving universality!_ Given the absence of statistics showing comparably better health _results_ from this money (except, I think, slight improvements in long term survivability for certain types of cancer), something is seriously wrong cost-benefit-wise with the US health system. However, I suspect it’s rather like a city which has grown solely using private roads for its transport infrastructure compared to others with a fully integrated and state-subsidised metro, tram and rail system. That city can’t just make the switch and become as efficient as those other cities without spending vastly _more_ money in the necessary radical overhaul. As [this excellent article](http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,12271,1077230,00.html) suggests, the US can see the illness but cannot face the cost of the cure. Just like an ill person with no insurance. ---
**Author:** ![SentientMeat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@SentientMeat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SentientMeat)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2006, 8:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-universal-health-care-is-implemented-how-much-will-it-cost-me/351483/19 "2006-04-06T08:03:17Z")
And, of course, someone has to point it out eventually: Whatever the cost of true universality, [$1 trillion](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11880954/) would come in handy. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2006, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-universal-health-care-is-implemented-how-much-will-it-cost-me/351483/20 "2006-04-06T13:00:25Z")
> [@SentientMeat](#): > > And, of course, someone has to point it out eventually: Whatever the cost of true universality, [$1 trillion](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11880954/) would come in handy. It would probably come in handy just to cover the recently passed Medicare prescription drug benefit. The latest projection is for this program to cost 720 billion dollars over 10 years. That’s _300 billion dollars more_ than the original cost estimate made in 2003. $1 trillion sounds like it might be semi-realistic. For that one, relatively small program. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-universal-health-care-is-implemented-how-much-will-it-cost-me/351483.md?page=2)