# If We Elect Romney President, Does War With Iran Become Very, Very Likely? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 22, 2012, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-we-elect-romney-president-does-war-with-iran-become-very-very-likely/629040 "2012-07-22T14:10:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2012, 11:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-we-elect-romney-president-does-war-with-iran-become-very-very-likely/629040/41 "2012-07-23T11:40:46Z")
The only way there will ever be war with Iran is if Iran starts it by sponsoring a terrorist attack on US soil. ANd given that Iran tends to get away with sponsoring terrorist attacks in other countries, they may think they can get away with it here. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2012, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-we-elect-romney-president-does-war-with-iran-become-very-very-likely/629040/42 "2012-07-23T13:33:39Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The only way there will ever be war with Iran is if Iran starts it by sponsoring a terrorist attack on US soil. ANd given that Iran tends to get away with sponsoring terrorist attacks in other countries, they may think they can get away with it here. Yeah, because the risks to Iran are pretty much the same when it sponsors terror attacks in, say, Lebanon as they are if Iran were to do so in the US. :dubious: I think it’s very important to distinguish between a land war (boots on the ground) and pre-emptive or retaliatory air strikes. When most people hear or talk about “war”, they usually are thinking of the former. But there have been many instances of terror attacks agains the US where the response was the latter. Think Pan Am 103 and Libya. The only time such attacks led to an actual land war was Afghanistan. One might argue that Iraq also counts\*, but the _sine qua non_ of that conflict was the alleged WMDs and the possibility of SH using them agains the US. And in the case of Afghanistan, we had a failed state that was harboring a stateless terrorist breeding ground. A land war with Iran is a whole 'nother kettle of fish. Much more likely are air strikes, even if they escalate to an action on the scale of what Clinton did in Serbia (under the guise of NATO). \*Bush did, incorrectly, try and sell us on a link between SH and Sept 11, 2001 attacks. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2012, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-we-elect-romney-president-does-war-with-iran-become-very-very-likely/629040/43 "2012-07-23T16:02:33Z")
> [@drewtwo99](#): > > May 4th, 2012 Obama Said: > > “Having said that, Iran’s leaders should have no doubt about the resolve of the United States, just as they should not doubt Israel’s sovereign right to make its own decisions about what is required to meet its security needs. I have said that when it comes to preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, I will take no options off the table, and I mean what I say.” > > “That includes all elements of American power. A political effort aimed at isolating Iran; a diplomatic effort to sustain our coalition and ensure that the Iranian program is monitored; an economic effort to impose crippling sanctions; and, yes, a military effort to be prepared for any contingency.” > > So, he talks the talk. He will use the military against Iran if they obtain nuclear weapons. Now, will he walk the walk? > > 2008 Townhall debate between McCain and Obama, Obama said: > > "And if we have Osama bin Laden in our sights and the Pakistani government is unable or unwilling to take them out, then I think that we have to act, and we will take them out. > > We will kill bin Laden. We will crush al Qaeda. That has to be our biggest national security priority." > > And he authorized just that kind of action, and killed Bin Laden. > > He also pledged to keep up the war in Afghanistan, supported troop surges there, and he kept that pledge as well. > > Obama has been a war-hawk president, and the right will never attack him on matters of foreign policy because Americans recognize it and give him credit for handling “The War on Terror” well. > > So, what makes YOU think Obama would be any less likely to go to war with Iran than Romney, and why do you think this is a strange point of view? Basically, because Obama does not have a crew of people with an ideological bent toward war with Iran. I think that if Obama declares war on Iran, it will be as he describes, a last option. He will exhaust all OTHER options first. But the neocon warhawks on the right are looking for EXCUSES to make war on Iran, it is their FIRST option, their preferred option. They will make shit up if they have to, just like they made shit up to justify the war in Iraq. I would not trust Romney and his advisors any further than I can throw them. Obama might wage war on Iran, but he will not MAKE SHIT UP to do it. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2012, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-we-elect-romney-president-does-war-with-iran-become-very-very-likely/629040/44 "2012-07-23T16:40:17Z")
I think if Romney is really inclined to think about pre-emptively attacking Iran, he’d be making more noise about it. As it is, I think Romney has only the most vague positions on foreign policy. For the moment, I’m going to chalk up this whole topic to the “we’ve talked about the imminent invasion of Iran 20 times in the last 7 years, this just makes it number 21” camp. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2012, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-we-elect-romney-president-does-war-with-iran-become-very-very-likely/629040/45 "2012-07-23T16:58:18Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > I think if Romney is really inclined to think about pre-emptively attacking Iran, he’d be making more noise about it. What makes you think **that?!** ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2012, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-we-elect-romney-president-does-war-with-iran-become-very-very-likely/629040/46 "2012-07-23T17:02:02Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > What makes you think **that?!** Three reasons: first, to draw a distinction between him and Obama; two, because politicians tend to think that they are persuasive and that people will end up agreeing with them when they speak; and three, if someone thinks that bombing Iran is a reasonable policy, then they probably wouldn’t treat the topic as though it were taboo. [All of this within reason, of course.](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2v8cuQTVO8&feature=related) ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2012, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-we-elect-romney-president-does-war-with-iran-become-very-very-likely/629040/47 "2012-07-23T18:08:48Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Why should we fight wars for Israel? Because they are our ally. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2012, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-we-elect-romney-president-does-war-with-iran-become-very-very-likely/629040/48 "2012-07-23T20:54:35Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > I hope we’re all in agreement, here, that we don’t **want** war with Iran under any circumstances? And certainly not to defend Israel? > [@John\_Mace](#): > > I can imagine lots of circumstances were war with Iran would be needed. > [@John\_Mace](#): > > I think it’s very important to distinguish between a land war (boots on the ground) and pre-emptive or retaliatory air strikes. When most people hear or talk about “war”, they usually are thinking of the former. But there have been many instances of terror attacks agains the US where the response was the latter. Think Pan Am 103 and Libya. Remember, experts have wargamed the idea of a limited airstrike on Iran, whether by the U.S. or by Israel, [in 2004,](http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2004/12/will-iran-be-next/3599/) and [in 2010,](http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/02/21/87061/war-game-shows-how-attacking-iran.html) and [in 2012,](http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Mar-20/167345-war-game-sees-regional-war-should-israel-strike-iran-report.ashx#axzz21Tse65Fh) and they can never seem to find a scenario where such action does **not** spin out of control into a general regional war. That is why we should not risk it under **any** circumstances. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2012, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-we-elect-romney-president-does-war-with-iran-become-very-very-likely/629040/49 "2012-07-23T22:29:43Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Because they are our ally. The Israelis can take care of themselves, here. They’re a nuclear power, more certainly than Iran is; and they need fear nothing from the conventional forces of a country that far away. ---
**Author:** ![gamerunknown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/6bbea6/32.png) [@gamerunknown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gamerunknown)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-we-elect-romney-president-does-war-with-iran-become-very-very-likely/629040/50 "2012-07-24T00:08:04Z")
> [@JoelUpchurch](#): > > We have an active program of assassinating people in foreign counties including Bin Laden. That’s the difference: Obama was more of a hawk. Also, more gay friendly. > [@Folacin](#): > > Right-wing hysteria not withstanding, Obama’s not a dictator. What about the [later executive order](http://www.salon.com/2011/03/08/guantanamo_17/)? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-we-elect-romney-president-does-war-with-iran-become-very-very-likely/629040/51 "2012-07-24T00:46:12Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Remember, experts have wargamed the idea of a limited airstrike on Iran, whether by the U.S. or by Israel, [in 2004,](http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2004/12/will-iran-be-next/3599/) and [in 2010,](http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/02/21/87061/war-game-shows-how-attacking-iran.html) and [in 2012,](http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Mar-20/167345-war-game-sees-regional-war-should-israel-strike-iran-report.ashx#axzz21Tse65Fh) and they can never seem to find a scenario where such action does **not** spin out of control into a general regional war. > > That is why we should not risk it under **any** circumstances. There are always legitimate reasons for going to war, so it’s silly to say we don’t want to under any circumstances. I’m comfortable with “most” circumstances. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-we-elect-romney-president-does-war-with-iran-become-very-very-likely/629040/52 "2012-07-24T00:51:29Z")
Why would an airstrike spiral into a regional war in Iran’s case, but not in Iraq or Syria’s case? What do they think the variable is that makes Iran different? A regional war would be suicidal for Iran. Do wargamers assume Iran is that irrational? if so, that’s an argument for a preemptive strike not against one. ---
**Author:** ![Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/aca169/32.png) [@Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inbred_Mm_domesticus)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-we-elect-romney-president-does-war-with-iran-become-very-very-likely/629040/53 "2012-07-24T01:14:14Z")
War is not likely with Iran. Warfare is very very likely if Romney becomes President. If Obama remains President it becomes unlikely. Romney is already going on his foreign policy tour to show that he doesn’t give a shit about peace in the Middle East and that he is willing to follow Netanyahu’s lead in all these Middle East, including feeding into right-wing paranoia over Iran’s nuclear program. If anything, his policy of “Israeli policy right or wrong” shows America in decline. Obama will refocus on true peace in the Middle East because he won’t have to care about his re-election anymore. He is only likely to bomb up until the election. He isn’t buying Israeli lies over the state of Iran’s nuclear energy and possible weapons programs. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-we-elect-romney-president-does-war-with-iran-become-very-very-likely/629040/54 "2012-07-24T01:21:32Z")
It’s hard to know for sure, but I doubt Romney is much of a hawk. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-we-elect-romney-president-does-war-with-iran-become-very-very-likely/629040/55 "2012-07-24T01:57:38Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > A regional war would be suicidal for Iran. Do wargamers assume Iran is that irrational? if so, that’s an argument for a preemptive strike not against one. :rolleyes: No, it isn’t, actually. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-we-elect-romney-president-does-war-with-iran-become-very-very-likely/629040/56 "2012-07-24T02:12:54Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Remember, experts have wargamed the idea of a limited airstrike on Iran, whether by the U.S. or by Israel, [in 2004,](http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2004/12/will-iran-be-next/3599/) and [in 2010,](http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/02/21/87061/war-game-shows-how-attacking-iran.html) and [in 2012,](http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Mar-20/167345-war-game-sees-regional-war-should-israel-strike-iran-report.ashx#axzz21Tse65Fh) and they can never seem to find a scenario where such action does **not** spin out of control into a general war. You do realize that many wargames are basically scripted exercises, right? Not necessarily predictions on what will happen if we do “x”? For many wargames, the fact that the situation devolves should be about as surprising as Bruce Willis escaping just in time before that building had a spectacular explosion. Now, I think attacking Iran would be a profound mistake, but it just bugs me when people trot out wargames as evidence of something. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-we-elect-romney-president-does-war-with-iran-become-very-very-likely/629040/57 "2012-07-24T02:21:06Z")
If Iran is irrational, they can’t be allowed to have a bomb. This is actually Obama administration policy. Iran will not get a bomb. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-we-elect-romney-president-does-war-with-iran-become-very-very-likely/629040/58 "2012-07-24T03:52:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It’s hard to know for sure, but I doubt Romney is much of a hawk. I don’t think Romney is personally much of a hawk, either. He does not appear to be very interested in international affairs. But most of the people who would serve as his staff ARE hawks, they are the same damn neocons, for the most part, that got us into Iraq. We do NOT need these idiots leading us to another needless war again, whether their puppet in chief is Bush or Romney. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-we-elect-romney-president-does-war-with-iran-become-very-very-likely/629040/59 "2012-07-24T04:07:25Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > You do realize that many wargames are basically scripted exercises, right? Not necessarily predictions on what will happen if we do “x”? . . . I never knew that… What the hell good are they if they’re scripted? I thought the whole point was to create a “sim” of a given situation, and “game it out” to see how it _might_ develop. Then to do it again, with new players, to try to work out an envelope of probabilities and possibilities. It may only be an urban legend, but the story is told of the Japanese admirals wargaming Midway, and having their carriers sunk. They shrugged it off as only one possibility among many – which, I guess, is valid – but that’s the way it actually did work out. Having the game host tell you, “Okay, the Blue Army wins and the Red Army loses, so get out there and fake it” would seem to be not very educational. Saying, “Go out there and fight it like a real battle” would seem far more productive. (As opposed to “re-enactments” which are, of course, highly scripted. And even there, I’m told, individuals are free to choose whether or not to “die.” One re-enacter told me it’s nice to die, because you get to stretch out on the cool grass and rest a while.) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-we-elect-romney-president-does-war-with-iran-become-very-very-likely/629040/60 "2012-07-24T04:16:55Z")
If the neocons wanted Iran, they would have gone in at some point during Bush’s second term. Plus the neocons’ main objective, democratization of the Muslim world, is already being achieved without any further shoves. There are only two ways we go to war with Iran: if they sponsor a terror attack on US soil, or they actually get close to a bomb and Israel hasn’t already acted. And these conditions apply whether Obama or Romney is President. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-we-elect-romney-president-does-war-with-iran-become-very-very-likely/629040.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-we-elect-romney-president-does-war-with-iran-become-very-very-likely/629040.md?page=4)