I believe that I spent about an hour, overall. Since then, most of my time has been spent trying to get people to not railroad their thinking. As said, I don’t really care how things turn out with Omar, my concern is the lack of critical thinking.
The evidence is inconsistent with Obama having been born outside the USA. Ergo, it’s not true.
If the evidence was consistent and there were plausible accusations independent of biased/likely dishonest sources, then it would be within the realm of possibility up until the point where new evidence came in.
In the case of Omar, the idea began in the Somali community, from a guy who was respected enough to be designated a moderator for the site, and who seems to have had a serial hatred for hypocrisy and liars.
It’s quite possibly that he simply misread the social media connections between Omar and her ex and assumed, based on Elmi’s name, that they had the same father. It’s hard to know how the rumor came to be. But if the accusation were true, we would expect it to be a bit of trivia floating around as gossip in the Somali community and we would expect it to be a “lawful-*” type to be the one to let it out. That is what we see in reality.
Assuming that the guy generated it based on assumptions - when we know nothing about how he came across the information and when there’s a reasonable amount of evidence consistent with the accusation - is foolhardy. It’s completely within the realm of possibility that he generated it through coming up with a theory consistent with the evidence and then decided that this meant his theory was true. But we don’t know that.
From what we know, it’s not a silly accusation. It could be true. But there are other explanations that could also be true.
Disproving the accusation, despite statements to the contrary, would be fairly easy. And, as noted, it would likely be financially profitable for Omar to do sp as well. So whether the specific accusation is true or not, I would lean against innocence - I just wouldn’t strongly lean to a specific version of guilt.