# I'm betting (Australia) has it beaten **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 27, 2020, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-betting-australia-has-it-beaten/850459 "2020-03-27T21:28:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Melbourne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5e925/32.png) [@Melbourne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melbourne)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2020, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-betting-australia-has-it-beaten/850459/61 "2020-04-03T23:17:17Z")
> [@Aspidistra](#): > > There’s also [this link](https://www.themandarin.com.au/127425-coronavirus-covid-19-in-australia-selection-of-infograms/), which gives detailed transmission-source data for all the states, except that Queensland has mysteriously ceased to exist :dubious: That’s good. I’d not heard of The Mandarin (“news of interest to Australian public sector managers” since 2014). It’s so slow that it’s almost unusable for me. The other site mentioned above doesn’t really give me the information I want. The Mandarin does split numbers into imported/acquired/community/unknown, but not into secondary/tertiary, which I think would be the really interesting number. I think the states aren’t providing those numbers. T think that the reason Queensland isn’t included is because it was just splitting it’s numbers into known/not identified yet. The other interesting number would be the amplification factor. I am absolutely sure that people must be trying to calculate this, but not releasing it. Perhaps it was on the Mandarin site but it gave up before I could find it. ---
**Author:** ![Weedy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/weedy/32/301_2.png) [@Weedy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Weedy)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2020, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-betting-australia-has-it-beaten/850459/62 "2020-04-04T03:35:49Z")
Melbourne. I think the government is tracking them, but may not be releasing that level of detail all the time. A few days ago, one of the NSW Health media releases had a little list at the bottom of the major sources, and how many were infected from each. E.g. there were 32 cases linked to the Boogie Wonderland party in Bondi on March 17th. (Boogie Wonderland’s Facebook page is like an object lesson in why we need social distancing.) From the NSW Health numbers, so far, it looks like around 10% of cases end up in hospital, and 20% of those (so 2% overall) end up in the ICU. Around half the ICU cases require ventilators. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-betting-australia-has-it-beaten/850459/63 "2020-04-05T01:02:33Z")
> [@Weedy](#): > > there were 32 cases linked to the Boogie Wonderland party in Bondi on March 17th. OK, millennial. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-betting-australia-has-it-beaten/850459/64 "2020-04-05T01:15:44Z")
> [@Weedy](#): > > From the NSW Health numbers, so far, it looks like around 10% of cases end up in hospital, and 20% of those (so 2% overall) end up in the ICU. Around half the ICU cases require ventilators. Yes. It’s the rate of hospitalisation that those countries who initially tried the herd immunity approach fell foul of. When a treatment is found that allows those with moderate symptoms to be nursed back to health without hospitalisation then those of us without exposure can be progressively released from self isolation. And I have no idea how a progressive release could be done but we can’t risk a mass relaxation of distancing promoting a second exponential spike. ---
**Author:** ![Melbourne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5e925/32.png) [@Melbourne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melbourne)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-betting-australia-has-it-beaten/850459/65 "2020-04-05T02:08:59Z")
> [@Weedy](#): > > I’m in Sydney, and it has not been easy to get a Covid test here until very recently. So I’m still holding my breath about the rate of community transmission. OTOH, given the hospitalisation rates, it’s obviously not rampant in the community. And judging by our number of deaths and ventilator cases, our hospitalisation rate is high: it’s easy to get into hospital. … Or for some reason our hospitalised cases are just luckier than people hospitalised in other countries. Better hospitals? More sunshine and vitamin D? Nobody knows. ---
**Author:** ![Cicero](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cicero/32/3594_2.png) [@Cicero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cicero)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 9:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-betting-australia-has-it-beaten/850459/66 "2020-04-12T09:56:53Z")
And I don’t want to sound like a crank, but West Australia reported only three new cases yesterday. Yesterday also had the highest April temperature on record (39.5 C). Coincidence? Probably. And I am wondering if any ship has contributed more to the misery of any country than the Ruby Princess. ---
**Author:** ![Francis\_Vaughan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/francis_vaughan/32/3093_2.png) [@Francis\_Vaughan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Francis_Vaughan)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 10:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-betting-australia-has-it-beaten/850459/67 "2020-04-12T10:23:21Z")
Here in SA we reported zero today. 19 degrees. There is of course a lag between infection and symptoms of at least 4 days. ---
**Author:** ![Aspidistra](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspidistra/32/3894_2.png) [@Aspidistra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspidistra)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 10:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-betting-australia-has-it-beaten/850459/68 "2020-04-12T10:24:23Z")
Yeah, probably. But the numbers in the last week have been okay. (ETA: **@Cicero** ) It looks like we’re in a position where we actually might be able to go for a New-Zealand-style elimination strategy, but I don’t know if all the states are up for that. NSW … seems like not. I have a feeling that NT and WA might be though - and they might be willing to keep the borders shut to the eastern states in order to keep it out of their backyard. ICU numbers have been very encouraging in the last week … they go 83, 96, 101, 86, 81, 81, 80 I think they may be going up again this evening though, since that most recent cruise ship docked. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 10:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-betting-australia-has-it-beaten/850459/69 "2020-04-12T10:45:59Z")
> [@Cicero](#): > > And I am wondering if any ship has contributed more to the misery of any country than the Ruby Princess. You are kidding, right? Sheesh. The ship which brought bubonic plague to the British Isles; The ship that brought Francisco Pizzaro and his conquistadors along with measles, smallpox, influenza, typhoid etc to South and Central America; The Santa Maria bringing Columbus and the Mayflower bringing the Pilgrims and the same biological agents; The First Fleet coming into Sydney Cove with the gamut of Old World disease and killing thousands of times more of the indigenous people than were passengers on the Ruby Princess; You could also add the troopships which brought the 1918 pandemic from North America to the killing fields of Europe (social distancing at a time of trench warfare?) You want me to go on? ---
**Author:** ![KellyCriterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/b3f665/32.png) [@KellyCriterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KellyCriterion)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 11:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-betting-australia-has-it-beaten/850459/70 "2020-04-12T11:40:43Z")
There are [19 known cases of community transmission](https://www.2gb.com/exclusive-community-transmission-tragedy-among-ruby-princess-relatives/) of COVID-19 from infected passengers who disembarked the Ruby Princess. That’s 19 that could have been avoided, sure. But the idea that the Ruby Princess caused some huge spike in coronavirus cases in Australia is wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Cugel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cugel/32/1199_2.png) [@Cugel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cugel)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-betting-australia-has-it-beaten/850459/71 "2020-04-12T21:38:34Z")
Only 22 new reported cases yesterday, but hundreds of thousands cases and tens of thousands of death = bad , but few cases and minimal deaths = also bad it seems. > [@Cicero](#): > > And I am wondering if any ship has contributed more to the misery of any country than the Ruby Princess. The Roosters’ 2019 premiership? ---
**Author:** ![Banksiaman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banksiaman/32/3334_2.png) [@Banksiaman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banksiaman)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-betting-australia-has-it-beaten/850459/72 "2020-04-12T23:47:45Z")
> [@Cugel](#): > > The Roosters’ 2019 premiership? _polite golf clap_ ---
**Author:** ![Melbourne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5e925/32.png) [@Melbourne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melbourne)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2020, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-betting-australia-has-it-beaten/850459/73 "2020-04-13T01:13:32Z")
> [@penultima\_thule](#): > > and the Mayflower bringing the Pilgrims and the same biological agents; As I recall, the Mayflower Pilgrims were lucky that when they started out, they met someone who could speak English :). And doubly fortunate that there was unoccupied cleared land that they could use with the farming methods demonstrated by their English-speaking guides ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Melbourne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5e925/32.png) [@Melbourne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melbourne)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2020, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-betting-australia-has-it-beaten/850459/74 "2020-04-13T02:03:35Z")
600 cases from the Ruby Princess, leading to 30 acquired cases. Reproduction ratio 0.05, which would suggest 1 or 2 tertiary transmission cases _amongst close family_, if such were possible, which seems unlikely. We now have more recovered cases (3000+) than active cases (3000-). New cases yesterday ~100, which indicates, I think, that we are still seeing new imported cases, but also includes the far more important number of acquired infections. That would be a 0.033 ratio _per day_ (say 0.5% total) if it wasn’t mostly imported cases. ---
**Author:** ![Melbourne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5e925/32.png) [@Melbourne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melbourne)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2020, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-betting-australia-has-it-beaten/850459/75 "2020-04-13T02:08:59Z")
> [@Aspidistra](#): > > I’m not exactly sure where all the other Aussies in the thread are posting from but where I am, in Victoria, schools were due to go on ordinary Easter holiday on March 27. So it’s a bit moot, for us. When official term starts again … well, I’m not going to treat it like it’s a lock-in because anything can happen in two weeks, but the talk so far has been of a “mixture of in-person and online learning”. Which I interpret as meaning that if you have to send your kids in then you can, but you can choose otherwise if you can. My state school has told us not to send kids to school if you are at home. I don’t get the notifications (the school only talks to people who have a smart phone), so I don’t know if they are demanding documentation, but they’ve told us that most of the teachers won’t be there. ---
**Author:** ![Francis\_Vaughan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/francis_vaughan/32/3093_2.png) [@Francis\_Vaughan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Francis_Vaughan)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2020, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-betting-australia-has-it-beaten/850459/76 "2020-04-13T03:31:53Z")
> [@Melbourne](#): > > 600 cases from the Ruby Princess, leading to 30 acquired cases. Reproduction ratio 0.05, which would suggest 1 or 2 tertiary transmission cases _amongst close family_, if such were possible, which seems unlikely. > > We now have more recovered cases (3000+) than active cases (3000-). New cases yesterday ~100, which indicates, I think, that we are still seeing new imported cases, but also includes the far more important number of acquired infections. That would be a 0.033 ratio _per day_ (say 0.5% total) if it wasn’t mostly imported cases. Here in SA we seem to have 3 hot spots of secondary transmission. A baggage handler, a group of tourists for the USA in one of our winery districts, and the Ruby Princess. For a while secondary transmission from the Ruby princess was the dominant reason for testing positive. I think we dodged a bullet. The saving grace of the Ruby Princess debarcle was that we knew the names and addresses of all the passengers. So within a very short time health authorities in all the states were able to get in contact and isolate them, plus start contact tracing. They didn’t need to wait for passengers to become symptomatic before identifying them. So reproduction was stamped down much faster than usual. We still have a residual community infection with no identified path, but it is small, and there is some hope we can squish it out. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2020, 11:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-betting-australia-has-it-beaten/850459/77 "2020-04-14T11:25:29Z")
Interesting snippet on the economy. I work in Supply Chain in FMCG. Being a Japanese company our financial year is April-March First fortnight’s sales figures for FY20 are in and we are running at 80% BPlan, which was set back in Oct/Nov last year. I was stunned it was that high but the marketing bods seem to think that sell though could hold at those levels. Possibly browsing is way down but people are going to buy on a mission and then getting out of the malls and strips quicksmart? ---
**Author:** ![Cicero](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cicero/32/3594_2.png) [@Cicero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cicero)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2020, 11:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-betting-australia-has-it-beaten/850459/78 "2020-04-14T11:31:25Z")
> [@penultima\_thule](#): > > You are kidding, right? Sheesh. > > The ship which brought bubonic plague to the British Isles; > The ship that brought Francisco Pizzaro and his conquistadors along with measles, smallpox, influenza, typhoid etc to South and Central America; > The Santa Maria bringing Columbus and the Mayflower bringing the Pilgrims and the same biological agents; > The First Fleet coming into Sydney Cove with the gamut of Old World disease and killing thousands of times more of the indigenous people than were passengers on the Ruby Princess; > You could also add the troopships which brought the 1918 pandemic from North America to the killing fields of Europe (social distancing at a time of trench warfare?) > > You want me to go on? Preferably not. ---
**Author:** ![Banksiaman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banksiaman/32/3334_2.png) [@Banksiaman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banksiaman)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2020, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-betting-australia-has-it-beaten/850459/79 "2020-04-14T13:24:05Z")
> [@penultima\_thule](#): > > Interesting snippet on the economy. > > I work in Supply Chain in FMCG. Being a Japanese company our financial year is April-March > First fortnight’s sales figures for FY20 are in and we are running at 80% BPlan, which was set back in Oct/Nov last year. I was stunned it was that high but the marketing bods seem to think that sell though could hold at those levels. > > Possibly browsing is way down but people are going to buy on a mission and then getting out of the malls and strips quicksmart? Not my field, but a 20% down-turn in business sounds broadly consistent with the 10% unemployment figure that is being touted, and the ~10% of shops that have shut up around my area (which is mainly a restaurant-cafe strip, so pretty heavily hit). Hopefully the Jobkeeper / Jobseeker grants will come at the right time to keep people shopping for the non-essentials. I think there is a sense among those of us lucky enough to have kept our jobs, our special duty for the rest of the year is to really splash the cash, support local businesses and share the love. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2020, 12:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-betting-australia-has-it-beaten/850459/80 "2020-04-20T12:07:01Z")
A recent report on technical modelling of the local transmission of COVID-19 from the [Peter Doherty Institute](https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/news) (Peter Doherty won a Nobel Prize for Medicine in 1996 in the field of immunology and is one of our national treasures) [Estimating the case detection rate and temporal variation in transmission of COVID-19 in Australia](https://www.doherty.edu.au/uploads/content_doc/Estimating_changes_in_the_transmission_of_COVID-19_April14-public-release.pdf) When the initial modelling of the pandemic infection rates were done the base reproduction rate of R0 for COVID-19 was usually set around 2.5 i.e. every infected case infects 2.5 others, hence the exponential growth of the pandemic. Due to the implementation and acceptance of social distancing policies and other environmental factors like Australia’s lower population density and the arrival of the pandemic outside the normal flu season the local effective reproduction rate R\*eff \*has been estimated as around 0.5. Obviously anything sustained below 1.0 is El Dorrado. The big unknown is the level of asymptomatic cases but these results would suggest that local elimination of COVID-19 may be achievable. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-betting-australia-has-it-beaten/850459.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-betting-australia-has-it-beaten/850459.md?page=5)