# I'm calling it: Romney will be the nominee **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 18, 2011, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515 "2011-07-18T23:37:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/1 "2011-07-18T23:37:31Z")
Have I done this yet? Well, he will be. The GOP has not changed enough that someone else can beat the hair apparent. ---
**Author:** ![waterj2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/858c86/32.png) [@waterj2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/waterj2)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/2 "2011-07-18T23:57:44Z")
I’d have to lean toward Romney myself. Everyone else running seems to be in the “can’t possibly win” category, for one reason or another. I don’t really see how Romney could win, either, but his weaknesses seem less fatal. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/3 "2011-07-19T00:00:38Z")
Most likely yes. Although that means Romney has to win next year to avoid the Republicans going to the extreme, McGovern route in 2016, ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/4 "2011-07-19T00:34:27Z")
That’s guaranteed. If he picks an idiotic woman as a running mate, he’ll win two states. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/5 "2011-07-19T00:35:06Z")
> [@foolsguinea](#): > > Have I done this yet? > > Well, he will be. The GOP has not changed enough that someone else can beat the hair apparent. The GOP has beaten the heir apparent plenty of times. Remember when McCain was leading Bush II by a wide margin, much later in the cycle? ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/6 "2011-07-19T00:39:56Z")
> [@Mosier](#): > > The GOP has beaten the heir apparent plenty of times. Remember when McCain was leading Bush II by a wide margin, much later in the cycle? [No](http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2rep.htm) ---
**Author:** ![Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e36b37/32.png) [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airman_Doors_USAF)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/7 "2011-07-19T00:49:15Z")
It’s a bit premature to be definitive about it, but I strongly suspect you’re right. Unless he has any as-yet undiscovered skeletons in his closet he should be the nominee. I dread to think about who else it will be. Even so, all will be for naught. he’s not “conservative” enough for some, and not nearly “liberal” enough for the democrats to swallow, even if Obama is somehow at risk come election time. Add to that the fact that he’s a Mormon and he doesn’t have a chance. The Republicans will have to do a lot of soul-searching and reinvention before they have a real shot at the Presidency. ---
**Author:** ![waterj2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/858c86/32.png) [@waterj2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/waterj2)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/8 "2011-07-19T01:02:45Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Most likely yes. Although that means Romney has to win next year to avoid the Republicans going to the extreme, McGovern route in 2016, It does look like there’s a good chance that if the GOP passes up this opportunity to nominate a crazy extremist, they might take the next chance. I’m fine with whatever keeps them out of power until sane people take over the party. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/9 "2011-07-19T01:27:25Z")
Perry has a pretty good chance, if he declares soon. And Bachmann could still pull it off. Of course, neither of them has a chance unless everything goes absolutely into the toilet in the next year. And I really can’t see anyone but one of those three getting it-- The only other person that even seems remotely close is Tim Palenty, but nobody actually likes him, and what little following he has would be completely eclipsed by Perry. Everyone else in the race is either running for Vice President, trying to shift the Overton Window one way or the other, or trying to get some publicity to cash in on. ---
**Author:** ![flickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7bcc69/32.png) [@flickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flickster)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/10 "2011-07-19T03:48:54Z")
Oh joy, almost as big a RINO as McCain ---
**Author:** ![Recovering\_Republican](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/d2c977/32.png) [@Recovering\_Republican](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Recovering_Republican)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 10:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/11 "2011-07-19T10:20:07Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Perry has a pretty good chance, if he declares soon. And Bachmann could still pull it off. Of course, neither of them has a chance unless everything goes absolutely into the toilet in the next year. And I really can’t see anyone but one of those three getting it-- The only other person that even seems remotely close is Tim Palenty, but nobody actually likes him, and what little following he has would be completely eclipsed by Perry. Everyone else in the race is either running for Vice President, trying to shift the Overton Window one way or the other, or trying to get some publicity to cash in on. Guy… **EVERYTHING IS IN THE TOILET NOW!!!** As far as Romney, he won’t be the nominee for the following reasons. 1. The Evangelicals hate him because he’s a Mormon. 2. The Tea Partiers hate him because he’s the guy who invented ObamaCare. 3. Most conservatives hate him because he’s a phony. Once Perry gets into it, he’ll quickly eclipse this guy. And then beating Obama will be an easy task. ---
**Author:** ![Finagle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/b19c9b/32.png) [@Finagle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Finagle)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 11:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/12 "2011-07-19T11:43:54Z")
> [@foolsguinea](#): > > Have I done this yet? > > Well, he will be. The GOP has not changed enough that someone else can beat the hair apparent. If “hair apparent” was all that was needed, Trump would have gotten the nod. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/13 "2011-07-19T12:08:50Z")
> [@Recovering\_Republican](#): > > Once Perry gets into it, he’ll quickly eclipse this guy. > > And then beating Obama will be an easy task. Perry can’t even beat Obama [in a poll in his own state!!!](http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_TX_629513.pdf)😃 ---
**Author:** ![flickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7bcc69/32.png) [@flickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flickster)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/14 "2011-07-19T13:41:49Z")
> [@CaptMurdock](#): > > Perry can’t even beat Obama [in a poll in his own state!!!](http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_TX_629513.pdf)😃 I would question public policy’s poll on this one. I’m not a big Perry supporter, but can assure you that a slug would have a better chance than Obama within the state of Texas ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/15 "2011-07-19T14:02:41Z")
That would be too bad. If I had to pick one of that sorry assortment, it would be Huntsman, only because he’s the only candidate who hasn’t signed any those onerous “pledges” from tax morons like Grover Norquist and the right-to-life crazies. His statement about them is simple: I owe my allegiance to my flag and my wife. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/16 "2011-07-19T14:32:21Z")
I think that Romney will win and Romney will pull a McCain in 08, Dole in 96, and Bush in 92. Be a lukewarm GOP party guy with no clear message, adopt whatever policy seems to win over focus groups, and have absolutely no enthusiasm behind him. He will get his 160 EV and go home. Maybe by 2016 we will have someone that can run without looking like a total fool. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/17 "2011-07-19T14:56:18Z")
> [@Recovering\_Republican](#): > > Once Perry gets into it, he’ll quickly eclipse this guy. > > And then beating Obama will be an easy task. Money-making opportunity: [InTrade](http://www.intrade.com/?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkHomePage=true) Rick Perry currently trading at 23.8. Get in quick for easy money. More realistically, Rick Perry needs to start doing the things that being a candidate require - raising money for a start. You may have heard that Obama brought in 85 million last quarter. One more quarter like that and Perry has some major catching up to do. He’s not, as far as I know, independently wealthy like Romney. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/18 "2011-07-19T16:11:01Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > I think that Romney will win and Romney will pull a McCain in 08, Dole in 96, and Bush in 92. Be a lukewarm GOP party guy with no clear message, adopt whatever policy seems to win over focus groups, and have absolutely no enthusiasm behind him. That’s the way I’m seeing it. Romney’s letting the other candidates burn out early while he waits for the real process to begin. Unless Perry jumps in soon, Romney will get the nomination by default. But he might end up running his campaign for the general election on the same strategy. Figure that a lot of voters will want to vote against Obama and he’ll win by default. But what worked against Huckabee, Trump, Palin, Bachmann, and others won’t be as effective against Obama. Obama is after all the President - he has a lot more stature than a rival nomination candidate. Romney needs to do more than convince people they shouldn’t vote for Barack Obama - he needs to convince them they should vote for Mitt Romney. Otherwise, “I guess I won’t vote” will win the election, Obama will get get the silver medal and a second term, and Romney will get third place. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/19 "2011-07-19T17:13:30Z")
I doubt it. The tea party will make up a major % of primary voters, and Romney is not popular with them. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/20 "2011-07-19T17:13:59Z")
What is telling to me is how the polls show Obama beating every potential Republican candidate. He slaughters Bachmann and Palin, and still beats Romney by 5 or 6 points. But if you match him with a “generic” Republican, the Republican wins by 7! It seems that the voters are aching for someone out there who can articulate the Republican position and take a hold of things. The problems is that no one has done that and I don’t think that anyone in the current crop is able. I thought that Gingrich or Santorum might have a chance, but both of them are stuck in a time warp that makes them unable to see past 1993, and they keep saying the same talking points that they used then. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515.md?page=2)