# I'm calling it: Romney will be the nominee **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 18, 2011, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515 "2011-07-18T23:37:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2011, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/121 "2011-10-05T22:16:14Z")
> [@The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](#): > > I feel like you’re missing the point. Republicans DO NOT like Obama. They dislike him enough to vote for whomever’s running against him. You want to point out that Republicans are backing unelectable candidates, then let’s point out that more Republicans are backing Mitt Romney than any other candidate. The candidates who get people excited are Bachmann, Paul, and Cain. Romney is not the favorite, most exciting of all the candidates, but he is viewed as the most electable, and THAT is why he has so much popular support right now – because Republicans dislike Obama enough to strategize how to get him out of office. Unless you have an alternative theory as to why Romney is leading in the polls … Then why are Dems concerned about the lack of thrill for Obama now? Same reason. It is all about turnout and donations. Some who don’t consider him to be a Christian might vote for the Libertarian candidate, or might decide that it is raining and not worth getting wet to vote. They won’t turn out to do electioneering. In 1992, when I was dumb and Republican, I voted for some third party candidate rather than Bush, because I was fed up with him (not because of taxes) and because I never would vote for a Democrat. (Bush the younger cured me of that bias.) McCain would have lost a lot of the people on the right if it weren’t for Palin, though she lost more moderates than she gained right wingers. Romney would have the same problem. It is not enough to get a plurality of Republicans, you need to bind them together to allow you to go for the center without losing too many. ---
**Author:** ![AbloyProtec](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9f8e36/32.png) [@AbloyProtec](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AbloyProtec)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2011, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/122 "2011-10-05T23:23:42Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > Then why are Dems concerned about the lack of thrill for Obama now? Same reason. > It is all about turnout and donations. Some who don’t consider him to be a Christian might vote for the Libertarian candidate, or might decide that it is raining and not worth getting wet to vote. They won’t turn out to do electioneering. In 1992, when I was dumb and Republican, I voted for some third party candidate rather than Bush, because I was fed up with him (not because of taxes) and because I never would vote for a Democrat. (Bush the younger cured me of that bias.) > > McCain would have lost a lot of the people on the right if it weren’t for Palin, though she lost more moderates than she gained right wingers. Romney would have the same problem. It is not enough to get a plurality of Republicans, you need to bind them together to allow you to go for the center without losing too many. I like your train of thought. Do me a favor, make a prediction for VP if Romney wins. I’m curious. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2011, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/123 "2011-10-05T23:37:10Z")
> [@AbloyProtec](#): > > I like your train of thought. > > Do me a favor, make a prediction for VP if Romney wins. I’m curious. Santorum? I haven’t really thought about it, but he was the first person who popped into my head. ---
**Author:** ![AbloyProtec](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9f8e36/32.png) [@AbloyProtec](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AbloyProtec)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2011, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/124 "2011-10-05T23:38:04Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > Santorum? I haven’t really thought about it, but he was the first person who popped into my head. Are you Voyager? ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2011, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/125 "2011-10-05T23:41:22Z")
> [@AbloyProtec](#): > > Are you Voyager? Did you mean to send a PM? ---
**Author:** ![Lago\_Ys-Transform](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a587f6/32.png) [@Lago\_Ys-Transform](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lago_Ys-Transform)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2011, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/126 "2011-10-06T12:16:19Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > It is not like the Tea Party would vote for Obama, but stay home and not donate, sure. 1.) Why do you think that them not donating is a problem? The GOP has built up a pretty nice warchest in absence of a candidate to coalesce around and I don’t see them slowing down. 2.) What makes you think that they would be likely to stay home? The Republican demographic has a lot more people likely to vote. I’m sure it’s more likely that some of them will stay home but I really don’t see them bleeding a lot of voters. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2011, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/127 "2011-10-06T12:22:13Z")
> [@Lago\_Ys-Transform](#): > > 1.) What makes you think that they would be likely to stay home? The Republican demographic has a lot more people likely to vote. The Republican demographic is old, and very opposed to changes in Social Security. If they perceive that Tea Party candidates would jam a Perry Scheme for privatizing Social Security down their throats, they will stay home. ---
**Author:** ![The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_wind_of_my_soul)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2011, 1:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/128 "2011-10-06T13:03:07Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > The Republican demographic is old, and very opposed to changes in Social Security. If they perceive that Tea Party candidates would jam a Perry Scheme for privatizing Social Security down their throats, they will stay home. I’m confused as to what point you’re trying to make here. This thread is about Romney, and Romney has carefully distanced himself from the extreme claims about social security that Perry has been making. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2011, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/129 "2011-10-06T13:08:13Z")
> [@The\_wind\_of\_my\_soul](#): > > I’m confused as to what point you’re trying to make here. This thread is about Romney, and Romney has carefully distanced himself from the extreme claims about social security that Perry has been making. This thread is about Romney’s chances of being nominated. If the Tea Party alternative to Romney causes a significant portion of the Republican demographic to stay home, that is an argument for Romney. ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2011, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/130 "2011-10-06T13:38:10Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > The Republican demographic is old, and very opposed to changes in Social Security. If they perceive that Tea Party candidates would jam a Perry Scheme for privatizing Social Security down their throats, they will stay home. Not if they’ve been told that only people under 50 will be affected. They’ve shown they’re quite uninterested in anything that doesn’t affect them. -Joe ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2011, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/131 "2011-10-07T22:33:08Z")
Uh Oh… [Rick Perry backer Robert Jeffress: Mitt Romney not a Christian](http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/65445.html#ixzz1a8b6qUqo) > [@](#): > > Texas evangelical leader Robert Jeffress, the Baptist megachurch pastor who introduced Rick Perry at the Values Voter Summit, said Friday afternoon he does not believe Mitt Romney is a Christian. > > Jeffress described Romney’s Mormon faith as a “cult,” and said evangelicals had only one real option in the 2012 primaries. > > “That is a mainstream view, that Mormonism is a cult,” Jeffress told reporters here. “Every true, born again follower of Christ ought to embrace a Christian over a non-Christian.” > > Asked by POLITICO if he believed Romney is a Christian, Jeffress answered: “No.” Jeffress is leader of the Southern Baptist Convention, the largest evangelical denomination in the country. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2011, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/132 "2011-10-09T00:49:46Z")
> [@AbloyProtec](#): > > I like your train of thought. > > Do me a favor, make a prediction for VP if Romney wins. I’m curious. Two possibilities. 1. A Tea Party darling who hasn’t screwed up in the primaries. I think that rules out Perry. There would be a lot of pressure on him to go this route. It could be Daniels. 2. A competent and fairly moderate Republican. Possibly from the Midwest. I’d feel a lot better if he did this, but I think 1 is far more likely. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2011, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/133 "2011-10-09T00:55:36Z")
> [@Lago\_Ys-Transform](#): > > 1.) Why do you think that them not donating is a problem? The GOP has built up a pretty nice warchest in absence of a candidate to coalesce around and I don’t see them slowing down. > > 2.) What makes you think that they would be likely to stay home? The Republican demographic has a lot more people likely to vote. I’m sure it’s more likely that some of them will stay home but I really don’t see them bleeding a lot of voters. 1. This election is going to cost a billion bucks. Every penny will count. The real big money is in the PACs and is a lot further to the right than Romney. 2. Remember when the Tea Party was mad because Congress didn’t push through the level of cuts they wanted? I think Romney wouldn’t drive the country over a cliff due to ideology, which they would interpret as not being true to their principles. He is also going to have to move to the center for the election, which he can do more believably than the other credible candidates. Sure they vote, but would they vote for a non-Christian? It is a matter of fire in the belly. I doubt they’d have it for Romney. I’m not sure the old party getting behind him will help. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2011, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/134 "2011-10-09T00:58:32Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > This thread is about Romney’s chances of being nominated. If the Tea Party alternative to Romney causes a significant portion of the Republican demographic to stay home, that is an argument for Romney. I’m not sure that it would. Such a nomination would make a large percentage of independents vote for Obama again, though. Republicans (except for a handful) are afraid of challenging anyone on crazy talk - it would be quite easy to paint a Tea Party candidate as an extremist nut. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2011, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/135 "2011-10-09T01:00:22Z")
> [@Merijeek](#): > > Not if they’ve been told that only people under 50 will be affected. They’ve shown they’re quite uninterested in anything that doesn’t affect them. > > -Joe We’ve got kids. Not to mention age cutoff points might be too subtle. They are going to kill Social Security will come through loud and clear. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2011, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/136 "2011-10-09T01:21:56Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > I think Romney wouldn’t drive the country over a cliff due to ideology, which they would interpret as not being true to their principles. He’s made the Grover Norquist no-tax-increase pledge. So did the Bushes. But Romney surely recalls that when Bush the Elder violated the pledge, he became a one-termer. So even though Romney may not actually be all that much to the right of Obama in inclinations, he’s going to be boxed in by some bad campaign promises. As for VP, the Cain boomlet should give an idea of how Republicans more loyal to the party than I am may think. I predict it will be a person of color. As for the possibilities, Marco Rubio’s recent statement that he did not want to be VP was less than Shermanesque. Susana Martinez makes more sense to me than Herman Cain, but it could be either. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2011, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/137 "2011-10-09T04:40:09Z")
With the Tea Baggers in charge, Romney will have trouble. He is seen as a Liberal, non Christian. He is an east coast ,northerner too. How far off can he be to what the baggers want? He is also a waffler. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2011, 5:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/138 "2011-10-09T05:00:42Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > Uh Oh… > > [Rick Perry backer Robert Jeffress: Mitt Romney not a Christian](http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/65445.html#ixzz1a8b6qUqo)Jeffress is leader of the Southern Baptist Convention, the largest evangelical denomination in the country. No surprise to me. I’ve pointed out on more than one occasion that this is how a large part of the Christian conservatives view Romney. I think there was even a thread where I mentioned visiting the mega-church my parents attend where I overheard several conversations saying basically the same thing about Mormons. Each time it has been hand waved away by other posters as if it doesn’t matter. Frankly I don’t know that the Republicans have anyone in the race other than Romney who will be perceived by the always important independent voters as stable, reasonable and Presidential. The trick is going to be how does he get past all those hardcore Mormon haters who will be voting in the primaries? If you know the answer to that one you may want to contact Romney’s campaign about a position as a political consultant. Because without wins in the Southern primaries I don’t see how he gets the nomination. And for the purpose of this scenario Texas is part of the South. ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2011, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/139 "2011-10-09T15:34:13Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > We’ve got kids. Not to mention age cutoff points might be too subtle. They are going to kill Social Security will come through loud and clear. I doubt it. There’s a reason that the continual sop to the near-AARPers is “but this won’t affect **your** benefits”. -Joe ---
**Author:** ![a35362](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3da27b/32.png) [@a35362](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/a35362)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2011, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515/140 "2011-10-10T22:56:20Z")
Just sharing this: [How Well Do You Know Your Romney?](http://www.whichmitt.com) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-calling-it-romney-will-be-the-nominee/589515.md?page=8)