# I'm sick of this Global Warming! **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [August 16, 2013, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440 "2013-08-16T18:57:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 153
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2014, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3041 "2014-08-12T22:38:12Z")
> [@](#): > > 1. In your formative years, you wind up creating a second, false you – a clown that can go out and represent you, outside the barrier. The clown is always joking, always “on,” always drawing all of the attention in order to prevent anyone from poking away at the barrier and finding the real person behind it. The clown is the life of the party, the classroom joker, the guy up on stage – as different from the “real” you as possible. > Again, the goal is to create _distance_. > > You do it because if people hate the clown, who cares? That’s not the real you. So you’re protected. > > But the side effect is that if people _love_ the clown … well, _you_ know the truth. You know how different it’d be if they met the _real_ you. [Robin Williams and Why Funny People Kill Themselves | Cracked.com](http://www.cracked.com/quick-fixes/robin-williams-why-funny-people-kill-themselves/#ixzz3ADZKIIbz) ---
**Author:** ![andros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e480ec/32.png) [@andros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/andros)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2014, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3042 "2014-08-12T23:23:00Z")
You and I know a little about that, don’t we **FXM**? ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2014, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3043 "2014-08-12T23:47:01Z")
> [@Subterraneanus](#): > > _Hamlet_ is going to take awhile. Pull up a chair, brother, this might take the full million years. ---
**Author:** ![DingoelGringo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9d8465/32.png) [@DingoelGringo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DingoelGringo)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2014, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3044 "2014-08-12T23:57:11Z")
> [@ralfy](#): > > The 1990 report has been shown to be accurate. Please read the recent article shared and earlier ones for details. > > I also shared several studies, and some refer to subsequent models. > > I don’t understand your last sentence. Are you claiming that the 1990 report was published years later? > > Finally, you need to stick to the topic and back up your claims (e.g., the articles reported incorrectly, the findings given in the studies are wrong, etc.). But why cannot these climate change enthusiasts make better predictions. Last summer I ran across an article written in the late 1970’s lamenting the fact that people paid no attention to their prediction that the sea level would rise by 2 or 3 meters before the turn of the century. But if it was science wouldn’t it have been a bit more accurate. Never a word of apology from these false prophets when their visions didn’t come true. ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3045 "2014-08-13T03:11:28Z")
> [@Subterraneanus](#): > > _Hamlet_ is going to take awhile. Ahh, the world-renowned adjunct professor returns . . . did your community college give you a sabbatical? ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3046 "2014-08-13T03:39:46Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > Ahh, the world-renowned adjunct professor returns . . . did your community college give you a sabbatical? Says the pudgy subnormal that lives in his mother’s basement. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3047 "2014-08-13T04:10:01Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > WOW, _Rolling Stone_ found a replacement for Hunter S. Thompson … I’m getting a subscription today !!! > > I respect Al Gore in the same way I respect Einstein, they both made great contributions and they both made not-so-great contributions … relativity and world wide web = good … anti-QM and water always frozen at 32ºF = bad How dare you take that attitude toward the esteemed journal, _Rolling Stone_?! But seriously, Al Gore does make a good point that our NOAA-eschewing friends seem to be missing, namely that rising ocean temperatures are a significant indicator of global warming, and a driver of things like more powerful hurricanes. These friends of ours seem to want to omit this bit, as if some deft definitional engineering will just handwave away the entire issue of AGW. I’ll quit posting awhile and watch for the argument that these things aren’t happening. ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 1:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3048 "2014-08-13T13:09:11Z")
[Here’s a graph of sea level change](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1d/Post-Glacial_Sea_Level.png) over 20,000 years, sorry no reference, but it looks sciency. Ocean temperatures certainly hasn’t escaped my thinking, I’ve just been quiet about it until someone else thought of it. Glad to see the bestest Vice President this nation as ever seen in 25 years finally did. This is as good a bogie man as we’ve had since the asteroid scare a few decades ago, we’ll not see it coming … What is the current average temperature of the oceans? [Here’s a map](http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/) of NOAAs buoys, the site says about 1,200 total. That’s compared to around [2,000 land-based weather stations](http://forecast.weather.gov/stations.php?foo=0) in the USA alone. I’d say it’s a fair guess that, world-wide, there’s well over 10,000 data points for air temperature and I think it fair to say 20,000 (and include the buoys, they measure air temperature as well). Whereas, it seems not all the buoys measure water temperature, but let’s assume they all do. With the 20,000 or so air temperature data points, plus a comprehensive understanding of atmospheric circulation AND more than a few of these stations also releasing instrument packages into the atmospheric column to take reading up to the stratosphere … we can construct a computer model that “fills in” all the rest of the atmosphere. This is not difficult since the data is not changing at all, and we have days and weeks to let the computer run. This gives fairly accurate average temperatures as demonstrated the consistency of [five different types of programming](http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/Temps1.gif). The algorithm is the same and based on Naiver-Stokes. Ocean temperature is not as easy. First, we only measure sea surface temperature (SST) in large volumes. These NOAA buoys [only measure](http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041) temperatures 60 cm below the surface. There’s no regular measuring of the temperatures down through the water column. Also, ocean circulation patterns are far from being well understood. The good news is that Naiver-Stokes still applies, but without input data, the output data is untrustworthy. " … namely that rising ocean temperatures are a significant indicator of global warming." They certainly could be, but right now they are not. NOAA is hard at work developing techniques and systems to do just this. However, we will have to await the results before any grand conclusion is drawn. This bogie man is sitting down there in the oceans hiding, and at four times the energy per degree (for a unit mass), there’s a fuck load of room to hide. “If the thunder don’t get you, then the lightning will” ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3049 "2014-08-13T13:15:07Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > Lol, you seem to be clueless about what we are actually discussing. No, I’m not; “yes, you are”; No, I’m not; “yes, you are”; No, I’m not; “yes, you are”; No, I’m not; “yes, you are”; No, I’m not; “yes, you are”; No, I’m not; “yes, you are”; No, I’m not; “yes, you are”; … yes, I am; “no, you’re not”; yes, I am; “no, you’re not”; yes, I am; “no, you’re not”; yes, I am; “no, you’re not”; yes, I am; “no, you’re not”; … It’s like a Bugs Bunny cartoon. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3050 "2014-08-13T14:41:53Z")
But with out the funny music. ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3051 "2014-08-13T15:51:56Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > But with out the funny music. Looney tunes indeed. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3052 "2014-08-13T15:54:28Z")
Sometimes one showing is worth a thousand tellings. [![](https://i.imgur.com/2m5bbWs.png) ](https://i.imgur.com/2m5bbWs.png) ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3053 "2014-08-13T15:57:16Z")
And here is [the current NCDC US temperature data](http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/110/00/tavg/ytd/12/1955-2014?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000) where you can check that shit out ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3054 "2014-08-13T17:49:37Z")
> [@andros](#): > > The sexual tension is so thick you can climb on it. I have two Ken dolls I’ve labeled “Brazzie” and “Wolfie,” and I’ve been making them kiss all week. And anatomically correct, to boot. ---
**Author:** ![Knowledgable](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/67e7ee/32.png) [@Knowledgable](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knowledgable)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3055 "2014-08-13T22:02:20Z")
Global Warming is trying to get involved. Just tell her nobody likes her and she’ll leave. ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3056 "2014-08-14T03:36:36Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > No, I’m not; “yes, you are”; No, I’m not; “yes, you are”; No, I’m not; “yes, you are”; No, I’m not; “yes, you are”; No, I’m not; “yes, you are”; No, I’m not; “yes, you are”; No, I’m not; “yes, you are”; … yes, I am; “no, you’re not”; yes, I am; “no, you’re not”; yes, I am; “no, you’re not”; yes, I am; “no, you’re not”; yes, I am; “no, you’re not”; … > > It’s like a Bugs Bunny cartoon. Lol, nice dodge. Now please answer my questions: 1. Given that you accept the graph I linked to, will you agree that if a simulation is a pretty good fit with one of the temperature indices, it will most likely be a pretty good fit with the others? 2. Please quote me where I stated or implied that every weather station in the whole world has FIVE separate thermometers with FIVE different schmucks taking FIVE different readings and reporting to FIVE different agencies. Failing that, please admit that I stated or implied no such thing and apologize. ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3057 "2014-08-14T12:28:34Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > 1. Please quote me where I stated or implied that every weather station in the whole world has FIVE separate thermometers with FIVE different schmucks taking FIVE different readings and reporting to FIVE different agencies. Okay: > [@brazil84](#): > > Which, if any, of the leading temperature indexes (GISS, HADCRUT, UAH, BEST, etc.) do you accept as being reasonably accurate and why? > [@brazil84](#): > > For example, GISSTemp; HADCrut; BEST; and UAH. > Now please answer my question: Which of these temperature indexes to you accept as being reasonably accurate? > [@brazil84](#): > > Anyway, please answer my question: Which temperature indexes do you consider to be reasonably accurate? > [@brazil84](#): > > 1. Which temperature indexes will you accept as reasonably accurate? > [@brazil84](#): > > I repeated the questions because you did not answer previously. _QED_ > [@brazil84](#): > > 1. Given that you accept the graph I linked to, will you agree that if a simulation is a pretty good fit with one of the temperature indices, it will most likely be a pretty good fit with the others? Please define “simulation”. ---
**Author:** ![DiggitCamara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/df788c/32.png) [@DiggitCamara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DiggitCamara)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3058 "2014-08-14T16:50:25Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > Sometimes one showing is worth a thousand tellings. > > [Hansen 1986 predictions - Imgur](http://i.imgur.com/2m5bbWs.png) Interesting link, indeed. There are a number of erroneous predictions in it. Rowland (don’t know him, have to assume a climate scientist or someone like that) predicts > [@Rowland](#): > > We now have a hole in the ozone layer which will last for a century or more, even if the entire world where to stop futher emissions of chlorofluorocarbons today(…) The quote is from 1986, so , according to [Wikipedia’s Ozone depletion](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_depletion#Prospects_of_ozone_depletion) page he’s off on his prediction by about 30 years or so… they predict that > [@Wikipedia](#): > > with ozone levels recovering to 1980 levels by around 2068 And then we have an interesting passage where they speak about the expected days with temperatures over 80 degrees in Washington D.C. Here, it seems, Rowland was overly optimistic. He is quoted as saying > [@Article](#): > > (…)by 2040, the number of days each year with temperatures over 80 degrees would rise from 35 to 85 in Washingon, D.C.(…) According to [this site](http://www.currentresults.com/Weather/US/washington-dc-temperatures-by-month-average.php), they actually had 110 days with temperatures over 80 degrees during last year. So… you’re right, FX. This “showing” actually is worth a thousand “tellings”. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3059 "2014-08-14T17:48:48Z")
> [@DiggitCamara](#): > > And then we have an interesting passage where they speak about the expected days with temperatures over 80 degrees in Washington D.C. Here, it seems, Rowland was overly optimistic. He is quoted as saying > > > [@](#): > > > > Originally Posted by **Article** > > (…)by 2040, the number of days each year with temperatures over 80 degrees would rise from 35 to 85 in Washingon, D.C. and Omaha Neb(…) > > According to [this site](http://www.currentresults.com/Weather/US/washington-dc-temperatures-by-month-average.php), they actually had 110 days with temperatures over 80 degrees during last year. > > So… you’re right, FX. This “showing” actually is worth a thousand “tellings”. An unexpected bonus, since I didn’t even look at that “prediction”, which is completely and utterly bullshit. I know this because I checked the numbers a few seconds after reading your reply. Somebody had to screw up, either the reporting (most likely) or the prophet himself. In either case, it’s so wrong it can’t be made right. Most likely it should have been days over 90, because then it makes sense at least. Days over 80 F in DC at the time of the prediction averaged well over a hundred. They still do of course. > **[Washington DC Average Temperatures by Month - Current Results](https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/US/washington-dc-temperatures-by-month-average.php)** > > Detailed temperature information for Washington, DC with statistics on average monthly highs and lows plus number of days with hot or cold weather. Looking at days over 90 (which is what the article meant to say of course) actually allows us to check to see if anything close to what was predicted actually happened. (the days over eighty shows no increase since 1986) Which was actually very interesting. It seems the days over 90 F in DC have actually decreased, a lot. Starting after 1999. Since that prediction. The years with the least days over 90? 2000, 2001, 2003, 2004, and 2009. Which pretty much is the reason for no increase in the trend. Certainly the record holder is 2010, but the fact that 1980 is second … never mind. Clearly the warmer nineties show up using that metric. In DC But the cooling after 2000 pretty much shows why the prediction was so far off. So completely wrong. As always, check for yourself, don’t just believe somebody who already checked. [http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=lwx](http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=lwx) ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3060 "2014-08-14T17:55:22Z")
There is the possibility he meant “days with an average temperature” over 80, which I also checked. It shows no increasing trend either. It also shows 2000, 2001, 2003 and 2004 in the top lowest years, which would be expected. 2010 the winner for most days, but 1980 and 1943 being in the top ten sort of defeats the scare tactics of using that metric. The more I think about it, the more I suspect he was using “daily average temperature”, not “daily maximum” for his predictions. It’s still quite wrong of course. Omaha is a different story. [http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=oax](http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=oax) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440.md?page=152) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440.md?page=154)