# I'm sick of this Global Warming! **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [August 16, 2013, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440 "2013-08-16T18:57:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 187
**Author:** ![Subterraneanus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Subterraneanus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Subterraneanus)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2015, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3721 "2015-01-21T21:28:44Z")
**FX** , you’re a fucking idiot. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2015, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3722 "2015-01-21T21:50:13Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > However, there are techniques for accounting for non-independence when analyzing a series, and you sure can determine the likelihood or the odds of seeing one particular value. So you claim. Please explain what you mean by that. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2015, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3723 "2015-01-22T02:32:00Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > So you claim. Please explain what you mean by that. By which? The first part? Okay. You may have repeated measures of a phenomenon over time and those observations may be independent or systematically related. For example, if I have a series of coin flips, the probability associated with each event is independent. However, if I’m measuring depression over time, then your score this year isn’t independent from your score last year. People with high scores one year are more likely to have high scores the next year, and vice versa. I’m guessing the same is true for measures of climate. Thus, when you model this - depending somewhat on the kind of model you are using - you have to account for the correlation structure of the data. You can’t use a technique that assumes independence among the observations. That was the modest error in DMCs first response. However, he or she quite rightly proposed an alternate strategy that does not suffer from a systematic relationship among multiple events. Evaluating the odds associated with one particular score does not violate assumptions of independence. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2015, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3724 "2015-01-22T22:16:16Z")
> [@Facts won't change your mind about anything](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/facts-wont-change-your-mind-about-anything/710293/110): > > the bullshit you try to peddle every time you post on this topic. No one is buying your bullshit, The butthurt is strong in this one ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2015, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3725 "2015-01-24T21:34:30Z")
I usually am not that interested in stories about record cold, snowfall, or unheard of winter events. (they have become far too common) But this one about the poor Russians suffering in a winter hell beyond words, is too horribly ironic to pass up. Especially [the lone picture with the story](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7uvz9ACUAAPZYq.jpg). What the fuck? > [@](#): > > Residents of a Siberian town claim the government has told them not to talk publicly about the lack of electricity amid a potentially fatal cold snap. [http://www.vocativ.com/world/russia/heating-electricity-20-siberia/](http://www.vocativ.com/world/russia/heating-electricity-20-siberia/) Checking the Russian version (you have to translate it) reads like an old Soviet era comic nightmare. > [@](#): > > Residents complain that instead of repair power lines city administration in charge of monitoring the discontented in social networks. For example, an administrator in the “Overheard in Dudinka” laid correspondence, in which he strongly advised not to place posts regarding the accident. In addition, an unknown representative of the city administration was interested in the authors have published a post complaining of brutal cold in the apartment. “One way or another they will be detected, simply take more time” - says the official. [Авария на ЛЭП в городе Дудинка оставила жителей без тепла в -40, а власти попросили их не писать об этом в соцсетях » Информинг. Информируем о главном](http://informing.ru/2015/01/20/avariya-na-lep-v-gorode-dudinka-ostavila-zhiteley-bez-tepla-v-40-a-vlasti-poprosili-ih-ne-pisat-ob-etom-v-socsetyah.html) How the fuck to know if it’s true or not? But it reads like something you can imagine happening. “It’s not the unheard of deadly cold that’s the problem, it’s those damn Facebook posts about how there is no heat or power, that’s the real problem. But we will find them, those troublemakers. Oh, we will find you.” Goddamn global warming. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2015, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3726 "2015-01-25T02:48:19Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > I usually am not that interested in stories about record cold, snowfall, or unheard of winter events. . . . Except that you refresh this thread every single god damn time there is a cold snap anywhere in the northern hemisphere. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2015, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3727 "2015-01-25T03:16:08Z")
+6C in Saskatoon today. Unheard of warm spell. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2015, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3728 "2015-01-25T03:58:06Z")
Seriously? Because that’s not what [the weather history](http://www.theweathernetwork.com/monthly/canada/saskatchewan/saskatoon) shows at all. [In recent times the highest recorded temperature in January has been 6°C that’s 43°F, with the lowest recorded temperature -45°C, about -49°F.](http://www.myweather2.com/City-Town/Canada/Saskatchewan/Saskatoon/climate-profile.aspx) [It actually looks like it varies a lot year to year there](http://globalnews.ca/news/1180207/record-breaking-saskatoon-weather/) [Can you point out the warm spell on the calendar?](http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/CYXE/2015/1/24/MonthlyHistory.html) ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2015, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3729 "2015-01-25T13:46:02Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > [Can you point out the warm spell on the calendar?](http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/CYXE/2015/1/24/MonthlyHistory.html) Sure. At this very link, starting on the 14th the daytime highs run from 10-19C above normal (that’s 18-35 degrees F above normal for you goofy unit people), with nighttime lows 8-17C above normal. It’s not uncommon to have a couple days above freezing in January, but coming up on 2 weeks straight at or near freezing is rare. It’s also probably the result of ocean currents in the Pacific, or some jet stream perturbations like those that gave us all the cold last year. But it’s nice to see that you understand that extreme weather in a single location doesn’t say much about climate. ---
**Author:** ![Lucas\_Jackson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lucas_jackson/32/303_2.png) [@Lucas\_Jackson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lucas_Jackson)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2015, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3730 "2015-01-25T13:47:09Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > I usually am not that interested in stories about record cold, snowfall, or unheard of winter events. Your posts in this thread suggest otherwise. Three of your first four posts (including your OP) are just that. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2015, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3731 "2015-01-25T14:05:16Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > Seriously? Because that’s not what [the weather history](http://www.theweathernetwork.com/monthly/canada/saskatchewan/saskatoon) shows at all. > > [In recent times the highest recorded temperature in January has been 6°C that’s 43°F, with the lowest recorded temperature -45°C, about -49°F.](http://www.myweather2.com/City-Town/Canada/Saskatchewan/Saskatoon/climate-profile.aspx) > > [It actually looks like it varies a lot year to year there](http://globalnews.ca/news/1180207/record-breaking-saskatoon-weather/) > > [Can you point out the warm spell on the calendar?](http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/CYXE/2015/1/24/MonthlyHistory.html) Hmm actually just looked at that first link and see the source of your confusion. It’s wrong. It shows -9 high on Fri and -10 Sat. Don’t know where they got that. Snow was melting. It doesn’t do that at -10. Check Environment Canada’s historical weather data if you need a cite. And don’t bother going to dig up data on similar warm spells. I was making a fucking joke. Every time there’s a cold snap somewhere or a record low temperature is recorded you’re posting it here like it means something. So a bunch of record high temperatures were reported in the province over the weekend and I thought I’d make a silly post in your silly thread. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2015, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3732 "2015-01-25T16:50:23Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > I was making a fucking joke. I sort of got that. But since you live there, I thought your experience would trump the reported data. It does seem like there is a problem with the figures. The weatherunderground looks more accurate. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2015, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3733 "2015-01-25T17:22:03Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > And don’t bother going to dig up data on similar warm spells. One of the first things I did was check [the January trend data](http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=0&type=trends&mean_gen=01&year1=1995&year2=2014&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=250&pol=rob). Based on that, I would say that area is experiencing warming for the month of January. [Short](http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=0&type=trends&mean_gen=01&year1=2002&year2=2014&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=250&pol=rob) or long term trends show warming for there, for January. But oddly, not for [February](http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=0&type=trends&mean_gen=02&year1=2002&year2=2014&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=250&pol=rob). edit - So I checked winter, [which shows cooling](http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=0&type=trends&mean_gen=1203&year1=1995&year2=2014&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=250&pol=rob). Which is an example of how seasonal averages can hide things. December and February show cooling, but obviously January shows a warming trend. There is either something very strange going on with the weather/climate, or the measurements are wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2015, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3734 "2015-01-25T18:37:12Z")
Or you’re looking at much too localized data (by time or place) to draw any conclusions about climate as opposed to weather. Which is, of course, the massive blind spot you’ve been displaying for almost 4000 posts now. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2015, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3735 "2015-01-26T23:40:03Z")
The troll has had that pointed out hundreds of times, even by an elementary school kid in this thread. Yet he keeps trolling and the mods here allow it. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2015, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3736 "2015-01-27T00:04:52Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > Or you’re looking at much too localized data (by time or place) to draw any conclusions about climate as opposed to weather. Climate is weather over time. And it depends on the region. How can you not know this? [climate](http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/climate) : a region with particular weather patterns or conditions : the usual weather conditions in a particular place or region : the usual or most widespread mood or conditions in a place You seem to think climate means something else. What are you thinking climate even means? One of the first things I did was check [the January trend data](http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=0&type=trends&mean_gen=01&year1=1995&year2=2014&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=250&pol=rob). Based on that, I would say that area is experiencing warming for the month of January. [Short](http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=0&type=trends&mean_gen=01&year1=2002&year2=2014&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=250&pol=rob) or long term trends show warming for there, for January. But oddly, not for [February](http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=0&type=trends&mean_gen=02&year1=2002&year2=2014&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=250&pol=rob). edit - So I checked winter, [which shows cooling](http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=0&type=trends&mean_gen=1203&year1=1995&year2=2014&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=250&pol=rob). Which is an example of how seasonal averages can hide things. December and February show cooling, but obviously January shows a warming trend. There is either something very strange going on with the weather/climate, or the measurements are wrong. Yes, weather/climate for Saskatoon. You have to pick a region to look at trends, and time period. (which in this case I used short and long term trends) What the hell are you thinking climate means? ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2015, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3737 "2015-01-27T01:05:34Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > The troll has had that pointed out hundreds of times, even by an elementary school kid in this thread. Yet he keeps trolling and the mods here allow it. A one-note troll to boot: he _never_ posts in other non AGW threads. [“Hey doc, what’s that song you’re playing? I like it!”](http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lbw5osxOP21qbnq72.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![kidchameleon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/898d66/32.png) [@kidchameleon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kidchameleon)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2015, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3738 "2015-01-27T01:21:06Z")
The most important thing is that when there is a warming trend, we need to expand or narrow the data to find a cooling trend. The second most important thing is that when there is a cooling trend that we not delve into it further. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2015, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3739 "2015-01-27T02:39:07Z")
The most important thing it’s that you’re an idiot. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2015, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/3740 "2015-01-30T02:22:34Z")
The weather network picked up the story, more pictures. [http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/photos-siberian-town-encased-in-ice-after-powerful-storm-/44187/](http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/photos-siberian-town-encased-in-ice-after-powerful-storm-/44187/) Now it makes sense, the water main burst, which is why the vehicles (and town it seems) is frozen in ice. How fucking horrific. Thanks global warming. Thanks for nothing. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440.md?page=186) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440.md?page=188)