# I'm sick of this Global Warming! **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [August 16, 2013, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440 "2013-08-16T18:57:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 240
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2015, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/4781 "2015-08-28T15:16:48Z")
[http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/nhem/land/2/2/1990-2014?trend=true&trend\_base=100&firsttrendyear=1996&lasttrendyear=2015](http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/nhem/land/2/2/1990-2014?trend=true&trend_base=100&firsttrendyear=1996&lasttrendyear=2015) Looks like this graph better shows **FX** ’s position, on the right I’ve used the 2000-2015 temperature trend, and as you can see this is going down. I choose this to explicitly exclude the rapid run-up of temperatures in the 1990’s, because this pretty much stopped by 2000. This stands as a counter-example to AGW theory, in a time period of _increasing_ fossil fuel use, we have a decrease in temperatures. … but I’m just holding the tail out of **FX** ’s way here … ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2015, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/4782 "2015-08-28T15:23:18Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > [http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/nhem/land/2/2/1990-2014?trend=true&trend\_base=100&firsttrendyear=1996&lasttrendyear=2015](http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/nhem/land/2/2/1990-2014?trend=true&trend_base=100&firsttrendyear=1996&lasttrendyear=2015) > > Looks like this graph better shows **FX** ’s position, on the right I’ve used the 2000-2015 temperature trend, and as you can see this is going down. I choose this to explicitly exclude the rapid run-up of temperatures in the 1990’s, because this pretty much stopped by 2000. > > This stands as a counter-example to AGW theory, in a time period of _increasing_ fossil fuel use, we have a decrease in temperatures. > > … but I’m just holding the tail out of **FX** ’s way here … Jesus Fucking Christ. You’re showing a chart where EVERY SINGLE FUCKING YEAR has a positive temperature anomaly, taking a trend line for a year with a high positive temperature anomaly to a year with a low positive temperature anomaly, and calling that a cooling trend? Are you genuinely this fucking stupid? ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2015, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/4783 "2015-08-28T15:26:11Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > Jesus Fucking Christ. You’re showing a chart where EVERY SINGLE FUCKING YEAR has a positive temperature anomaly, taking a trend line for a year with a high positive temperature anomaly to a year with a low positive temperature anomaly, and calling that a cooling trend? > > Are you genuinely this fucking stupid? For fun start the trend line a year earlier, in the only year that had a negative temperature anomaly, and watch that trend line turn sharply positive. You people are both fucking morons. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2015, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/4784 "2015-08-28T15:35:35Z")
Remember back in spring when there was a lull and this thread was pretty much just **Fuxsie** bumping his thread every few days in a little echo chamber? Man, those were the good old days. Hopefully this little spawning run is ending and his fishing success drops. Global warming is raising hell with the fish populations, after all. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2015, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/4785 "2015-08-28T15:37:30Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > Since I linked to the source, the last thing I would do is lie, or try to decieve anyone about what it shows. > > I can’t get a +0.78C/Century trend for any area, land or sea for that period. Can you post a screenshot? > > I did double check, and the Northern hemisphere land trend for 1996-2015 for J-F is > > - 0.53C a century, **so my original post is wrong**. the 1995-2015 trend is - 1.23C > > But all of this can be checked of course. It’s science I just checked this. First of all, what is up with all these parameters? Sure feels like directions to the juciest cherry to me. Sure enough… If you select: 1. 2 month timenscale, 2. Jan-Feb 3. Start year 1996 4. End year 2014. 5. Region: north america. 6. Surface: land. 7. Display trend: per century. 8. Trend start 1995. 9. Trend end: 2015… You get a trend of -1.23! However, if you leave all those parameters, but just choose any other two month period, you get: Dec-Jan: +1.23 Feb-Mar: +0.32 Mar-Apr: +3.76 Apr-May: +3.38 May-Jun: +3.35 Jun-Jul: +2.58 Jul-Aug: +1.88 Aug-Sep: +2.18 Sep-Oct: +3.03 Oct-Nov: +3.88 Nov-Dec: +2.60 Literally every other 2 month period in this bizarrely crafted set of parameters yields the opposite direction of warming trend. Talk about cherry-picking. What a lying deceitful shitbag. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2015, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/4786 "2015-08-28T15:40:31Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > [Here’s the J\_F NH land trend](http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TadsUNqn8zo/VeB4V_-yMmI/AAAAAAAAA6U/CEMrW5HWWpc/s1600/NH%2BJF%2Btrned%2B96-15%2B2015-08-28_11.00.17.png) (just grabbed an image capture) Again, an image capture where every single year had a positive temperature anomaly. And you somehow claim that means we’re cooling? This is the third time in three posts of yours that I’ve caught you blatantly lying, you lying sack of shit. Ban him. ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2015, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/4787 "2015-08-28T15:42:29Z")
Did anyone else feel Benjamin Disraeli turn over in his grave? ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2015, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/4788 "2015-08-28T15:44:00Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > Global warming is raising hell with the fish populations, after all. Right, overfishing has absolutely _nothing_ to do with crashing fish populations … uh huh … anything to keep that fool A/C running eh? ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2015, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/4789 "2015-08-28T15:46:29Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > Did anyone else feel Benjamin Disraeli turn over in his grave? I genuinely can’t tell if you’re joking or a troll. Is the Disraeli thing mildly amusing or does it show a curious lack of self-awareness? I can’t tell. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2015, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/4790 "2015-08-28T15:55:35Z")
Well, he is an “evil” economist after all. ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2015, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/4791 "2015-08-28T16:13:21Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > [http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/nhem/land/2/2/1990-2014?trend=true&trend\_base=100&firsttrendyear=1996&lasttrendyear=2015](http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/nhem/land/2/2/1990-2014?trend=true&trend_base=100&firsttrendyear=1996&lasttrendyear=2015) > > Looks like this graph better shows **FX** ’s position, on the right I’ve used the 2000-2015 temperature trend, and as you can see this is going down. I choose this to explicitly exclude the rapid run-up of temperatures in the 1990’s, because this pretty much stopped by 2000. You left out the 90s because they were actually cooler than the 2000s for this already limited subset of data, i.e. Northern Hemisphere, Jan-Feb only, etc. The average anomaly for that subset in the 90s was 0.923. The average anomaly in the 2000s was 1.079. Adding the 90s would have simply made the trend go up, which you didn’t want. That’s the same reason you didn’t include 2015 and the combined land and ocean temperature, and you skipped over talking about the global temperature as well. > [@](#): > > This stands as a counter-example to AGW theory, in a time period of _increasing_ fossil fuel use, we have a decrease in temperatures. No it doesn’t. No more than the fact that it is expected to be cooler tomorrow in Atlanta than it is today stands as a counter example. Hell, at least FX gets paid to play the fool. What’s your excuse? > [@](#): > > … but I’m just holding the tail out of **FX** ’s way here … I’m pretty sure we’re all aware that you are doing something with FX’s tail. We just don’t want you to get any more specific about it. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2015, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/4792 "2015-08-28T16:15:50Z")
> [@DMC](#): > > I’m pretty sure we’re all aware that you are doing something with FX’s tail. We just don’t want you to get any more specific about it. He’s confused. The tail is the one in back. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2015, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/4793 "2015-08-28T16:32:13Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > Literally every other 2 month period in this bizarrely crafted set of parameters yields the opposite direction of warming trend… Congratulation, you just discovered what has been discussed for a couple of years here now. That’s what happens when you don’t read along. It first was discussed in 2005, and in 2009, [Cohen put it this way](http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009JCLI2931.1) > [@](#): > > The warming trend in global surface temperatures over the last 40 yr is clear and consistent with anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. Over the last 2 decades, this trend appears to have accelerated. In contrast to this general behavior, however, here it is shown that trends during the boreal cold months in the recent period have developed a marked asymmetry between early winter and late winter for the Northern Hemisphere, with vigorous warming in October–December followed by a reversal to a neutral/cold trend in January–March. 7 years more of observations has only increased the confidence in the idea this is not just some natural change. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2015, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/4794 "2015-08-28T16:41:54Z")
No, you lying bag of shit. The asymmetry here is between the one pair of months you chose and EVERY OTHER pair. You’re desperately, obviously, transparently pathetically cherry picking one observation. You’re an imbecile. ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2015, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/4795 "2015-08-28T16:59:08Z")
Mark Twain is usually credited but he was just plagiarizing Benjamin Disraeli … > [@](#): > > There are lies, damned lies and statistics. So this discussion is all about which set of twisted statistics twists The Truth best, eh? I’m not the one fucking this cat … > [@watchwolf49](#): > > … I’m just holding the tail out of **FX** ’s way here … ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2015, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/4796 "2015-08-28T17:07:31Z")
“A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way.” Mark Twain ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2015, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/4797 "2015-08-28T17:09:06Z")
Actually, it was Cohen who first noted the asymmetric changes, with the cold trend centered on February, but of course there is a lot more involved. If you are interested in learning some science, his papers are all online. This one mentions how models and theory don’t predict or explain the unusual cooling of the boreal winters. > **[Cohenetal\_NGeo14.pdf](https://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/papers/Cohenetal_NGeo14.pdf)** > > 3.46 MB Certainly if all the months were showing cooling trends, we would be having a different discussion. For a scientific discussion with tons of sources, [there is the infamous thread over there](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=716196) which has a breakdown of the trends and seasonal changes, explaining in great detail why the winter cooling is actually the reason for the pause. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2015, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/4798 "2015-08-28T17:13:43Z")
Linking to another thread in which you got near universal condemnation for different cherry picking doesn’t help your case. You know that, right? Imbecile. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2015, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/4799 "2015-08-28T17:37:41Z")
It just dawned on me that maybe Fuxsie doesn’t know what “cherry picking” means? Maybe that is why he continues to do it. It could be confusing, because picking cherries is usually fun and tasty! Hey little guy, “cherry picking” means that from a set of data or observations, you selectively identify only certain ones that are favorable to your argument and exclude others that are not. It’s a very bad thing to do. It’s considered fraud. Can you say fraud? I knew you could. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_fun_ball/32/17664_2.png) [@Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Fun_Ball)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2015, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/4800 "2015-08-28T18:40:12Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > [http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/nhem/land/2/2/1990-2014?trend=true&trend\_base=100&firsttrendyear=1996&lasttrendyear=2015](http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/nhem/land/2/2/1990-2014?trend=true&trend_base=100&firsttrendyear=1996&lasttrendyear=2015) > > Looks like this graph better shows **FX** ’s position, on the right I’ve used the 2000-2015 temperature trend, and as you can see this is going down. I choose this to explicitly exclude the rapid run-up of temperatures in the 1990’s, because this pretty much stopped by 2000. > > This stands as a counter-example to AGW theory, in a time period of _increasing_ fossil fuel use, we have a decrease in temperatures. > > … but I’m just holding the tail out of **FX** ’s way here … What do the Northern Hemisphere temperatures do over the ocean? This stands as a counter example to your AGW denial. In a time of increasing fossil fuel use we have an increase in temperatures. What about the Southern Hemisphere? What does it do? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440.md?page=239) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440.md?page=241)