# I'm sick of this Global Warming! **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [August 16, 2013, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440 "2013-08-16T18:57:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 42
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2013, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/821 "2013-11-20T01:56:16Z")
> [@Peaton\_of\_peat](#): > > Maybe cut your losses and try not to get labeled as “that guy who spends all his time sarcastically arguing with himself in his own thread.” “Dude”, you seem to have me confused with somebody who gives a shit about your opinion. ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2013, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/822 "2013-11-20T02:05:21Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > And yet it is quite easy, for any intelligent person, to describe both the theory, the physics, as well as the predictions. Why is that do you think? I would guess it varies from person to person. **Gigo** is too stupid to understand the theory and answer questions about it in his own words. At the other end of the warmist intelligence spectrum we have people like **chronos** who is probably smart enough to understand; however I think in his case the part of his brain which craves social acceptance is overriding the part which is capable of reasoning forward. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2013, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/823 "2013-11-20T03:35:21Z")
The history and the science of both climate history, the discovery of the ice ages, the various theories to explain them, the discovery of “greenhouse” gases, the early attempts to model climate, it’s actually a very interesting story. That it all is mixed together with political bullshit and conspiracy theory, and hyped and twisted in so many ways, it sort of sucks ass. Instead of interesting and enlightening conversation, it devolves quickly into the sort of mudslinging usually reserved for fights over morality and personal freedoms. Or worse. Who can blame most people for choosing the easy road and going with “the consensus”, vilifying all who question the official story, and feeling all smug and superior, with out knowing jackshit about either climate or the science involved. ---
**Author:** ![AlienVessels](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ba8739/32.png) [@AlienVessels](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlienVessels)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2013, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/824 "2013-11-20T03:59:08Z")
The system is getting more energy added. Things you would predict: More variability. Over the long run, somewhat higher temperatures. Changes in the slope of the warming curve depending on other heat absorbing parts of the surface of the earth. Threshold based changes where weird things happen like ice melting. Changes in air and water currents and the zones they affect. Increase of the volume of water from both expansion and ice melting. Migration of micro and macroscopic life into zones previously less optimal. ---
**Author:** ![andros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e480ec/32.png) [@andros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/andros)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2013, 4:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/825 "2013-11-20T04:17:45Z")
Oh, now you’ve done it. Yer gonna get spittle and semen all over you. ---
**Author:** ![Blake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a9a28c/32.png) [@Blake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blake)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2013, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/826 "2013-11-20T04:36:37Z")
> [@AlienVessels](#): > > The system is getting more energy added. Things you would predict: > > More variability. > Over the long run, somewhat higher temperatures. > Changes in the slope of the warming curve depending on other heat absorbing parts of the surface of the earth. > Threshold based changes where weird things happen like ice melting. > Changes in air and water currents and the zones they affect. > Increase of the volume of water from both expansion and ice melting. > Migration of micro and macroscopic life into zones previously less optimal. And how would these observations differ from any period since the last glacial maximum? ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2013, 11:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/827 "2013-11-20T11:13:37Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > Now will the idiots among us please return to your one line commentary. Try to use the word “stupid” and act like you are smarter than anyone else. > > I know you can do it. > [@brazil84](#): > > I would guess it varies from person to person. **Gigo** is too stupid to understand the theory and answer questions about it in his own words. Asked and answered. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2013, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/828 "2013-11-20T16:17:47Z")
> [@AlienVessels](#): > > The system is getting more energy added. Unless the sun is increasing it’s output, the earth isn’t “getting more energy”. Greenhouse (GhG) gas theory theory says water vapor and CO2 and methane and NO2 and O3 act “like” a greenhouse, slowing the rate at which heat radiates from “the system”. This isn’t accurate, but it’s become so ingrained we talk about it as the greenhouse effect. The more gases, the more slowing of heat leaving the system. It does not increase the amount of energy. Water Vapor (WV) a **bsorbs and re-radiates most of the heat** , and in moist areas it pretty much dominates all other gases. **CO2 just doesn’t make any difference in the atmosphere where there is water vapor**. So it is where it is very dry that CO2 is a factor. Which is exactly why the dry upper atmosphere in the tropics would be effected by an increase in CO2, and the polar regions, and winter. Possibly dry air over arid deserts. This the theory, based on the physics. That is why warmer winters, a warmer arctic, and a troposphere “hotspot” in the tropics are signs of heating from GhG increases. Note that it used to also be “a warming Antarctica” was predicted, but that has been quietly taken off the table. The **kind** of warming tells us **the cause** of the warming. Warming (and cooling) of the planet happen for other reasons. **The most important “predictions” made by GhG warming theory** are 1. The slight warming from extra CO2 will cause a feedback, **by increasing water vapor** (WV). Even a slight increase in WV causes much more heat to be “retained”, since it is the main GhG. This is a critical prediction, as global warming depends on this. 2)Polar warming (now just the arctic) will increase much more rapidly due to melting sea ice, ice sheets glaciers and permafrost. Open water, bare earth and rock, dark vegetation growing farther north, all these change the albedo (how much solar energy is reflected or absorbed by materials). This in turn causes more heating, causing more melting, causing more heating, **a feedback loop which will lead to drastic rates of warming**. This is **PHYSICS** bitches. It’s also a very simple explanation of the theory of Greenhouse gas global warming. If humans are the source of the increased GhGs, it’s the theory of AGW. > [@AlienVessels](#): > > Things you would predict: Lets look at each one, in a science way. > [@AlienVessels](#): > > Things you would predict: > > More variability. Meaningless. Weather is already chaotic, you have to define what would become “more variable”. > [@AlienVessels](#): > > Over the long run, somewhat higher temperatures… Be more specific. “Somewhat” is meaningless. And “the long run” is even worse. > [@AlienVessels](#): > > Changes in the slope of the warming curve depending on other heat absorbing parts of the surface of the earth. I don’t even know what that means. > [@AlienVessels](#): > > Threshold based changes where weird things happen like ice melting. OK you are just making things up now. > [@AlienVessels](#): > > Increase of the volume of water from both expansion and ice melting. Yes, that is a prediction, and is scientific. > [@AlienVessels](#): > > Migration of micro and macroscopic life into zones previously less optimal. Yes, plants are a very good indicator of climate, and climate change. Animals not as much since they move, and quickly. And follow the plants. Except for the oceans. Fish will migrate to warmer waters, or cooler waters, or away from too cold waters in a matter of days. Observations from the 1920s showed fish schools moved into warmer arctic waters in one season, when the ice melts, the fish move. Not a climate indicator by any means. Plants, especially trees, are a sure climate indicator. The tree line, how high trees will grow on mountains, as well as the arctic tree line, how far north trees can survive, 100% climate indicator. It takes time for a tree to grow, so they tell us what the climate of an area will support. I know, too much science, not enough ranting. tl;dr Explanation of greenhouse effect, theory, predictions and climate indicators ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2013, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/829 "2013-11-20T16:29:49Z")
> [@AlienVessels](#): > > The system is getting more energy added. Things you would predict: > > More variability. > Over the long run, somewhat higher temperatures. But what, precisely, do you mean by _“the long run”_? Could we prove that prediction wrong if there are no higher temperatures next year – or are we talking five years or ten, or fifteen or twenty? You mean _something_ by “the long run,” but (a) I don’t know what you have in mind, and (b) as phrased, you could handwave away a plateau – or decline – for any number of decades with a _“no, that’s still just the short run; it’d have to be longer.”_ ---
**Author:** ![Abe\_Babe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3ab097/32.png) [@Abe\_Babe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Abe_Babe)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2013, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/830 "2013-11-20T16:34:36Z")
> [@andros](#): > > Oh, now you’ve done it. Yer gonna get spittle and semen all over you. And not in the good way. ---
**Author:** ![AlienVessels](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ba8739/32.png) [@AlienVessels](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlienVessels)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2013, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/831 "2013-11-21T02:35:56Z")
I’m not going to do the point by point. We know the climate system is dealing with more energy and will probably continue to do so. We know that there will be inflection points in the warming curve as, for example, the ocean soaks up some of the energy. Similarly we might get odd changes in the rate of change if say, a warm current hits the frozen methane slush at the bottom of the ocean, or we hit the point where the land covered with ice goes from reflecting energy to absorbing it as the ice gives way to ground. What is a sure thing is stuff will happen that we didn’t expect. I think tracking “movements” of animal life in the form of disease is probably pretty important. I think it will warm faster than we can get the bulk of humanity “out of the way”. (Warming including consequences like water encroachment on population clumps.) The fact that some of this happened in the past is irrelevant. What is relevant is that modern civilization is far more sensitive to some of these changes. Not having as much rainfall in rice growing areas. That kind of thing. IMO the weak form of the global warming argument is sufficient cause for action. ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2013, 9:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/832 "2013-11-21T09:39:52Z")
> [@AlienVessels](#): > > What is a sure thing is stuff will happen that we didn’t expect. Lol, a brilliant prediction. Let’s see now: 1. You won’t define your hypothesis; 2. You won’t explain how its predictions would be measured. 3. And if its unspecified predictions turn out to be wrong, then it means unexpected things happened, which supports the (undefined) hypothesis. Looks like you have all your bases covered. > [@andros](#): > > Oh, now you’ve done it. Yer gonna get spittle and semen all over you. Screech screech! ---
**Author:** ![sylmar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b782af/32.png) [@sylmar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sylmar)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2013, 11:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/833 "2013-11-21T11:24:00Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > Screech screech! Your jaw’s sounding kinda squeaky there Brazzers. I’m thinking semen isn’t the lubricant you should be using… ---
**Author:** ![AlienVessels](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ba8739/32.png) [@AlienVessels](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlienVessels)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2013, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/834 "2013-11-22T03:14:48Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > Lol, a brilliant prediction. > > Let’s see now: > > 1. You won’t define your hypothesis; > > 2. You won’t explain how its predictions would be measured. > > 3. And if its unspecified predictions turn out to be wrong, then it means unexpected things happened, which supports the (undefined) hypothesis. 1. It’s gonna get warmer 2. Thermometer. 3. Unlikely to turn out wrong. This isn’t as hard as you make it out to be. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2013, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/835 "2013-11-22T04:01:23Z")
“There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.” Mark Twain ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2013, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/836 "2013-11-22T04:06:57Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > “There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.” > > Mark Twain “FXMastermind’s ideas stink like moose-cunt.” — Abraham Lincoln ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2013, 7:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/837 "2013-11-22T07:47:25Z")
> [@AlienVessels](#): > > 1. It’s gonna get warmer > 2. Thermometer. > 3. Unlikely to turn out wrong. Why exactly do you believe “It’s gonna get warmer”? I too am predicting a (mild) increase in global surface temperatures over the next 100 years but I would like to understand what is the basis for your hypothesis. Also, I take it you are abandoning your predictions of “volatility” and “suffering” and that “unexpected” things will happen? Last, would it surprise you to learn that you are now in agreement with Richard Lindzen who has also predicted warming? > [@](#): > > This isn’t as hard as you make it out to be. Lol, it’s not hard if you weasel as soon as your position comes under scrutiny. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2013, 11:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/838 "2013-11-22T11:31:13Z")
> [@AlienVessels](#): > > 1. It’s gonna get warmer > 2. Thermometer. > 3. Unlikely to turn out wrong. So if next year is cooler than this one…? No, of course that wouldn’t prove you wrong. Eight years without warming? Eighteen? Eighty? I don’t know. You tell me. ---
**Author:** ![AlienVessels](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ba8739/32.png) [@AlienVessels](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlienVessels)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2013, 3:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/839 "2013-11-23T03:17:49Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > “There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.” > > Mark Twain That’s exactly what’s fascinating about science. If you had all the facts, it wouldn’t be science, it would just be description. > [@brazil84](#): > > Why exactly do you believe “It’s gonna get warmer”? I too am predicting a (mild) increase in global surface temperatures over the next 100 years but I would like to understand what is the basis for your hypothesis. > > Also, I take it you are abandoning your predictions of “volatility” and “suffering” and that “unexpected” things will happen? > > Last, would it surprise you to learn that you are now in agreement with Richard Lindzen who has also predicted warming? > > Lol, it’s not hard if you weasel as soon as your position comes under scrutiny. Why I believe what I believe isn’t relevant. I’m asserting a trend. I do not abandon anything I’ve said in this thread. BTW, it’d be totally awesome if you’re going to use quotes to actually quote what I said. Or at least show where I said anything close to “suffering”. I don’t care whose position I agree with. I’m not joining a team. How can my position be scrutinized if my hypothesis is undefined? At best you could claim lack of position. Except those pesky predictions I made. > [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > So if next year is cooler than this one…? > > No, of course that wouldn’t prove you wrong. Eight years without warming? Eighteen? Eighty? I don’t know. You tell me. You’re right, one year doesn’t prove anything. Nor does eight. Eighty probably means the model is seriously effed. 25 would make me want to dig a lot deeper into the process. See if there’s not a heat sink in there somewhere or some other place the energy might be going, i.e. heat to wind. ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2013, 11:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/840 "2013-11-23T11:00:10Z")
> [@AlienVessels](#): > > Why I believe what I believe isn’t relevant. It’s absolutely relevant. For example, consider a person who knows nothing about CO2 emissions; changes in land use; etc. He might observe that the Earth is coming out of the Little Ice Age and that global surface temperatures are increasing. He might (and probably would) reasonably predict that the same trend will continue. Or consider a person who believes that mankind’s CO2 emissions are likely to cause minor warming but not enough warming to cause any serious problems for the Earth’s population. Last, consider a person who believes that mankind’s CO2 emissions are likely to result in amplified warming which will cause serious problems for mankind if unchecked. All three people can be said to subscribe to the hypothesis that “It’s gonna get warmer.” And yet all 3 have very different beliefs. You refuse to say which of these categories you belong to (or if you have some other set of beliefs). Your position is too vague to scrutinize, which is most likely your subconscious aim. > [@](#): > > I do not abandon anything I’ve said in this thread. BTW, it’d be totally awesome if you’re going to use quotes to actually quote what I said. Or at least show where I said anything close to “suffering”. Right here (in post 764): > [@](#): > > The issue with GW is not that some GW hasn’t happened before. It’s that while a hunter gatherer “civilization” might weather it well, a modern civilization that relies on being able to grow crops in very specific places and living in highly vulnerable areas is probably going to **suffer** more in the long term. (my bolding) > [@](#): > > How can my position be scrutinized if my hypothesis is undefined? At best you could claim lack of position. That’s exactly the point – your position is sufficiently vague as to be essentially meaningless. > [@](#): > > Except those pesky predictions I made. Lol, your predictions have the same problem. Basically meaningless. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440.md?page=41) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440.md?page=43)