# I'm sick of this Global Warming! **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [August 16, 2013, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440 "2013-08-16T18:57:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 91
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2014, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/1801 "2014-02-06T18:09:15Z")
It certainly fell under the heading of IMNSHO, rather than science or reason. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2014, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/1802 "2014-02-06T18:10:19Z")
Hell, many of the comments here in this here thread are pure IMNSHO! If there were a science section here, I would probably post in it. Someday. someday … ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2014, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/1803 "2014-02-06T22:16:55Z")
**A** GW deniers kind of remind me of the guy who watches the mechanic work on his car, [ul] [li]_is the water pump working right?_[/li][li]_are the sparkplugs long enough?_[/li][li]_maybe the coil wire is bad._[/li][li]_did you check the pistons?_[/li][/ul] People who know a few things but fail to grasp the Law of Muir, that everything is connected to everything else. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2014, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/1804 "2014-02-06T22:40:07Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > Did I say Milankovitch cycles, no I didn’t, what’s with the strawman argument, I thought you to be better than that. I’m proposing orbital perturbations as a mechanic for climate change. Milankovitch cycles **are** produced by orbital perturbations. As your own earlier post described: > [@watchwolf49](#): > > […] none of our solar system’s natural satellites scribe a perfect Kepler orbit. We have oscillations within oscillations within oscillations, although each one is very small in any given orbit, over millions of orbits we gain something of discrepancy. With the inverse square law and climate sensitivity going on, we see profound changes in climate. Those periodic multi-millennial orbital oscillations and their impacts on climate systems are exactly what the term “Milankovitch cycles” refers to. But okay, you now say that’s not what you meant by “Orbital Mechanics”. Fine. Let’s move on and see what you **do** mean: > [@watchwolf49](#): > > On the other hand, if the Earth’s orbit is farther away from the sun over the past couple of million years than is was 100 million years ago, we’ll see profound climate change over that time span. So…your suggested “orbital mechanics” mechanism driving **current** planetary warming is a long-term orbital shift occurring in a timeframe of **tens of millions of years**? Exactly how are you proposing that such a mechanism would operate? What equations describe it? > [@watchwolf49](#): > > If you look at the entire ice core dataset, you’ll note the “clockwork” pattern … something the lamestream utterly fails to address. Is this related to your speculation about multimillion-year effects in your previous sentence? If so, what are you suggesting that the “entire ice core dataset” tells us about the effects of orbital perturbations extending over millions of years? AFAIK, the longest ice core samples on record go back less than a million years before the present. > [@watchwolf49](#): > > […] I’m going to refer you to [Wikipedia’s definition of _hypothesis_](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothesis). Seems the only requirement is that the hypothesis be stated so that it can be disproved by experiment. Er, no. That definition also requires a hypothesis to be **"a proposed EXPLANATION for a phenomenon**" (emphasis added). A serious explanation of a phenomenon in physics (such as warming of the atmosphere) has to involve a _quantitative physical model_ that actually describes _how_ the physical causes are thought to produce the observed effects. > [@watchwolf49](#): > > Scientific method … we start by stating our hypothesis, conduct experiments to demonstrate our hypothesis, then publish our data where we either confirm or denounce our hypothesis. Absolutely right. So please start by actually _stating_ your hypothesis (or citing a location where it’s stated). I.e., _ **present a scientific hypothesis in a quantitative form involving explicit mathematical modeling of the phenomena involved.** _ You don’t need to worry about frightening me with equations. I’m a math professor, I see equations all the time. > [@watchwolf49](#): > > Hand waving away my eight alternate hypotheses is philosophical, not science. You haven’t proposed any hypotheses at all so far. You’ve just made some vaguely sciencey-sounding nebulous guesses. Without detailed quantitative structure describing how the physics of the proposed explanation would actually work, a guess does not qualify as a scientific hypothesis. > [@FXMastermind](#): > > There you go again, getting all factual. complicating the thread with science and definitions. :dubious: Really? **watchwolf49** ’s statements seem scientifically rigorous and factual to you? You find the sketchily-described buzzwords that he calls his “eight alternate hypotheses” to be a plausible alternative to the actual physics presented in mainstream climate science research? ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2014, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/1805 "2014-02-06T23:24:23Z")
> [@Kimstu](#): > > Really? **watchwolf49** ’s statements seem scientifically rigorous and factual to you? You find the sketchily-described buzzwords that he calls his “eight alternate hypotheses” to be a plausible alternative to the actual physics presented in mainstream climate science research? No, I was talking about bringing in scientific definitions and shit like that. Nothing kills a thread faster than facts. ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2014, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/1806 "2014-02-06T23:25:42Z")
> [@For You](#): > > **A** GW deniers kind of remind me of the guy who watches the mechanic work on his car, > [ul] > [li]_is the water pump working right?_[/li][li]_are the sparkplugs long enough?_[/li][li]_maybe the coil wire is bad._[/li][li]_did you check the pistons?_[/li][/ul] > People who know a few things but fail to grasp the Law of Muir, that everything is connected to everything else. The Warmist Mechanic: Umm, there’s something wrong with your car. I won’t tell you exactly what is wrong, or what will go wrong, or when. But something bad will happen so you better give me $10,000 to study the problem. And if you dare ask for specifics or express skepticism, then you are a denialist moron. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2014, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/1807 "2014-02-06T23:30:35Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > No, I was talking about bringing in scientific definitions and shit like that. Nothing kills a thread faster than facts. Well, I hope you’re wrong, because I would very much like to see some facts about a quantitative explanation of how the non-Milankovitch multimillion-year orbital perturbations that **wolfwatch** alludes to would account for currently observed global warming. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2014, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/1808 "2014-02-06T23:40:37Z")
> [@Kimstu](#): > > Well, I hope you’re wrong, because I would very much like to see some facts about a quantitative explanation of how the non-Milankovitch multimillion-year orbital perturbations that **wolfwatch** alludes to would account for currently observed global warming. Then start a topic about it. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2014, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/1809 "2014-02-06T23:42:56Z")
> [@For You](#): > > **A** GW deniers kind of remind me of the guy who watches the mechanic work on his car, > [@brazil84](#): > > The Warmist Mechanic: > > Umm, there’s something wrong with your car. I won’t tell you exactly what is wrong, or what will go wrong, or when. But something bad will happen so you better give me $10,000 to study the problem. And if you dare ask for specifics or express skepticism, then you are a denialist moron. OMG that could be an entire series about climate science and scare tactics. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2014, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/1810 "2014-02-06T23:51:31Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > The Warmist Mechanic: > > Umm, there’s something wrong with your car. I won’t tell you exactly what is wrong, or what will go wrong, or when. But something bad will happen so you better give me $10,000 to study the problem. And if you dare ask for specifics or express skepticism, then you are a denialist moron. More accurately: “Umm, there’s something wrong with your car. _Specifically, it’s overheating. You’ve been putting a lot of stuff into its ventilation/radiation systems that basic physics and chemistry indicates will cause overheating, although the interactions are very complex so I can’t be certain about a lot of it._” “I won’t tell you exactly what is wrong, or what will go wrong, or when _because, as I just told you, I don’t know all the details of how this very complex system works. I’m doing a lot of tests on it and learning a lot about it, but I don’t mind telling you candidly that there’s still a hell of a lot of uncertainty about exactly what could fail and exactly when and exactly how badly._” “But _it’s extremely likely that_ something bad will happen _if you keep putting in more and more of the stuff that tends to cause overheating. Your car has never had so much of this stuff in its system in all the years you’ve owned it, and the more you keep loading it up, the more probable it becomes that some of the safety and reliability features you depend on will start to go out of spec._” “…so you better give me $10,000 to study the problem _if you want me to learn more about it and give you my best advice about how to handle it. Up to you, of course._” “And if you dare ask for specifics or express skepticism, _I will happily explain to you all I know about what’s going on and be as clear as I can about the parts of my diagnosis I feel confident about and the parts that are still very iffy. In fact, I’ve already done thousands of studies on your car and written up thousands of reports at various levels of specialized detail, and I would be more than thrilled if you want to carefully study them so we can share informed opinions on the matter._” "_But if, on the other hand, you’re just going to stand there without understanding any of the technical aspects of car repair and keep screaming that you just **know** there’s no problem with your car, or it must be a temporary glitch and nothing to worry about, or it must have been a pothole or a nail in the tire or that one time you drove through the desert, or that I must be a crook or a tool of a government conspiracy for daring to tell you that there’s something seriously wrong with your car…_ “then you are a denialist moron.” ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2014, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/1811 "2014-02-06T23:54:50Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > Then start a topic about it. Why? Are we not allowed to go on talking about it in this thread? It was **watchwolf49** who made the claim in this thread that something he vaguely alludes to as “orbital mechanics” counts as a valid “alternate hypothesis” to account for observed climate data. I’m simply asking him for a cite. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2014, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/1812 "2014-02-07T00:59:24Z")
I was pretty sure he was just making a point about what a hypothesis is, and his examples were not supposed to be viewed as completely serious, for example proposing that “Whale populations recovering” is a valid hypothesis to explain climate change. > [@watchwolf49](#): > > Researchers are NOT wrong with their hypotheses … but hypotheses it is. These long winded arguments are all about one side saying these hypotheses are _scientific facts_ simply because climatologists say they are. My specific form of denialism is pointing out that hypotheses is always stated _as fact_, but otherwise are _ **not fact** _. We can lay bets on how many column-feet **Gigo** will post if I were to state that on any of the other climate threads. I’ll take 2-1/2 feet. > > Alternates: > [list=I][li]Orbital Mechanics[_]Cosmic Rays[_]Water doesn’t provide feedback[_]Lack of plant sinking[_]Reduced albedo[_]Unpredictable solar output[_]Whale populations recovering[\*]Contrails[/li][/list] > > All the above a valid hypotheses, just as valid as Mr Sciency-person’s. Now watch the little girls cry and scream … Again, I’m not sure it was done in all seriousness, despite the point being a serious one. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2014, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/1813 "2014-02-07T01:05:32Z")
> [@Kimstu](#): > > More accurately: > > “Umm, there’s something wrong with your car. _Specifically, it’s overheating. You’ve been putting a lot of stuff into its ventilation/radiation systems that basic physics and chemistry indicates will cause overheating, although the interactions are very complex so I can’t be certain about a lot of it._” See? There could be an entire series of escalating horseshit using a car as an example. If a mechanic told me that whopper I would laugh in his face. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2014, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/1814 "2014-02-07T02:26:09Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > > [@Kimstu](#): > > > > More accurately: > > > > “Umm, there’s something wrong with your car. _Specifically, it’s overheating. You’ve been putting a lot of stuff into its ventilation/radiation systems that basic physics and chemistry indicates will cause overheating, although the interactions are very complex so I can’t be certain about a lot of it._” > > See? There could be an entire series of escalating horseshit using a car as an example. If a mechanic told me that whopper I would laugh in his face. Really? Because back in your own post #1761, you yourself said pretty much exactly the same thing as a simplified summary of basic global warming science: > [@FXMastermind](#): > > Increasing CO2 in the earth’s atmosphere […] causes a positive imbalance of the radiation budget, leading to warming. […] Those are the basics. Or in other words, “you’ve been putting in a lot of stuff that basic science indicates will cause heating, although the interactions are very complex”. ---
**Author:** ![andros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e480ec/32.png) [@andros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/andros)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2014, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/1815 "2014-02-07T02:36:33Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > Nothing kills a thread faster than facts. Gold. Absolute gold. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2014, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/1816 "2014-02-07T02:42:55Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > I was pretty sure he was just making a point about what a hypothesis is And my point is that his point is wrong. An actual scientific hypothesis is emphatically **not** just a speculative guess that some vaguely identified physical phenomenon might in some unspecified manner be responsible for producing a certain observed effect. It has to involve an explicit description of a realistic mechanism by which that phenomenon would produce that effect. And in the case of a mathematical science like physics, that description has to include a quantitative model of the phenomena in question. Sure, scientific hypotheses generally have their _origin_ in some smart person’s vague speculative guess about possible causes of an unexplained effect. But that doesn’t mean that a guess and a hypothesis are the same thing. ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2014, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/1817 "2014-02-07T02:47:27Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > If you look at the entire ice core dataset, you’ll note the “clockwork” pattern … something the lamestream utterly fails to address. Again with this? I’m pretty sure I already demonstrated that the clock is broken. We currently have C02 levels 30% higher than at any time in the past, even the peaks in your beloved ice core chart, something the lamestream (really?) poster I’m responding to utterly fails to address. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2014, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/1818 "2014-02-07T04:01:17Z")
> [@andros](#): > > It’s…it’s like… > > I really don’t have the words to describe it. And yet, still you talk. ---
**Author:** ![andros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e480ec/32.png) [@andros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/andros)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2014, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/1819 "2014-02-07T04:57:53Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > And yet, still you talk. You continue to entertain. Think of it as applause. ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2014, 10:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440/1820 "2014-02-07T10:45:59Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > Nothing kills a thread faster than facts. Christ, no wonder your thread has been going for 1.8k posts! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440.md?page=90) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/im-sick-of-this-global-warming/666440.md?page=92)