The old “when it’s cold it’s just weather” excuse is old news. Try to keep up. Now that colder winters, with increasing snow and ice, have become impossible to deny, dismiss or handwave away, the new mantra is “global warming is making it colder”.
I thought it was clear enough. Right after I quoted something, I said it was bullshit. It’s exactly because they claim winters are warming that I said it.
"Winters in the U.S. have been warming steadily over the past century, "
False. There was warming until the fifties, then drastic cooling, leading to the record cold of 77 and 79, then there was warming until 1998,or 2001, in most areas of the US. Since then, cooling.
"and even faster in recent decades, "
False. The last two decades have shown a clear trend for most of the US of colder winters, with more snow and ice. The data shows it clearly.
“so it would take more than a few sub-zero days to cancel that out.”
That’s utter bullshit. It’s not what they describe at all, there is an unmistakeable trend. The NH winter trend is so much colder, it actually has brought the entire global mean down.
The GISS maps don’t show the hemispheres separately, but the NCDC data does. The 1995-2014 winter trend for land only, for the NH, is - .17 C a decade. Which means the winter NH mean for land temperatures has dropped by .34 C since 1995.
The February trend for 1995-2014, NH land global mean, is - .54 C
That means in the last two decades, the NH February mean has dropped by 1.08 C
Which is a huge change.
Of course looking at the GISS maps you can see not everywhere has become colder. But the NH mean is colder.
No, you probably haven’t seen that on TV. Hell, I haven’t even seen this on the denier blogs. I have no idea why either.
To avoid cherry picking, it helps to compare a warming winter trend, with a cooling one. The areas that were warming are now cooling. Which is sort of fucked up.
That anyone is still trying to sell the public that the US winters are warming, or warming even faster, is beyond absurd.
Which is why I used the global data, which clearly shows a colder winter trend for large areas of the NH, which is exactly what peer reviewed science also shows.
And while I know facts and peer reviewed science is useless for changing a warmers mind, it’s still quite obvious what the actual science is telling us.
Being skeptical I went and checked, and while the trend was obvious even using the 1990-2011 data, it’s even more obvious using the 1990-2014 data.
But please, don’t let facts stop you. Keep saying the winters are warming more than ever. It’s priceless.
The CONUS shows a cooling trend for D-J-F 1995-2014 of - 1.13 F a decade. Even when parts of the US are not seeing as much of a cooling trend. Because the cooling trend is not uniform across the US.
In fact, Florida shows a slight warming. Which is good. Very good.
Also, from what I remember, the NAS referred to extreme weather conditions, which means not just harsher winters but also extended droughts, heat waves, etc.
That’s why global warming is not about weather. With the latter, temperature anomaly goes up and down, leading to averages that plateau (the blue lines). But the trend line (colored red) is upward:
It is called “global warming” because more heat emanating from the Earth is trapped/reflected back to the surface by greenhouse gasses. This is revised to “climate change” because the overall trend is for more energy in the… biosphere? “surface zone”? From ~1000 meters below the deepest point in the ocean to the border between space and atmosphere where there are still an unusual number of molecules floating around, there will be an increasing amount of energy in the system.
Why? Physics and shit, man! Sunlight amounts to a wide spectrum of frequencies of visible and invisible radiation, most of which pass right through the atmosphere as if it isn’t even there. Once it arrives on Earth though, it tends to be converted into heat and radiate back out in the form of infrared radiation. This kind of radiation is readily absorbed by CO2 molecules, which are prone to spit it back out again in literally any direction whatsoever. So, infrared radiation tends to go straight out into space from Earth; CO2 molecules capture infrared radiation and eventually spit that energy back out again, in a random direction. The net effect is that a certain % of infrared radiation that would under different circumstances of lower CO2 levels simply fly out into space, is instead ‘captured’.
It is a global phenomenon, so local effects may seem sometimes ironic or unpredictable. Hence, ‘climate change’- there is more energy in the system, and this is going to change the climate in sometimes unpredictable but usually undesirable ways.
That’s pathetic. Instead of responding to any of the points, or the links, the facts, you create a straw man and talk about that. This is a sort of mental blindspot the true believer suffers from. They actually can’t look at a trend that shows cooling, and see it. They always see something else.
Then there is the now familiar avoidance (and another strawman) of countering with a cherry picked time period.
If you haven’t seen it yet, it sums up a lot that is stupid about alarmist science, and those who preach global warming doom. It starts in 1970, the favorite time period for alarm, which is dishonest. It also tries to say that a 17 or 20 year period of flat, or declining global temperature means nothing, because it warmed in the previous 20 years. But that is an entire subject right there, the skullfuckery of data and cherry picking.
In short, yes. But there is also methane, NO2, ozone, contrails land use changes, black carbon (soot) and changes made to rivers, all of which is believed to lead to warming as well. In essence the consensus expects certain changes, based on an increase in the heat balance of the world.
That’s another issue. It is the expected changes to the NH winters, and the arctic regions, two key predictions of the EGGE theory, that is the most egregious departure from the models. (which are based on the theory)
The NH trend should show the most warming in winter, especially the high latitudes. Instead, we are observing cooling in winters, and the most warming in summers, as well as spring, for the most part.
This is the opposite of what the theory predicts. that it shows up clearly over decades now, it’s a serious departure from the consensus on global warming. It does not, as some would like to claim, mean there is no climate change. In fact, the winter trend is so much stronger than the rest of the year, it shows more climate change than any other season.
This was actually predicted by two well respected scientists, climate specialist, who predicted that warming would cause the arctic sea ice to melt, and as the arctic became ice free, it would increase the amount of winter snowfall, especially around the arctic regions, which usually get very little snow. The frozen sea surface prevents much water vapor from entering the atmosphere in the arctic, the very reason snow is light in the arctic regions, especially in winter, where it’s almost non existent in the arctic. These two esteemed researchers predicted this in 1955. They calculated that the arctic would be ice free in summer by 2050 or so.
An open arctic ocean allows massive early snowfall, especially in northern Eurasia, and the northern regions of North America. This creates early “cold poles”, especially in Siberia, which act as a drastic cooling factor, further reducing temperatures, and setting up high pressure areas that dominate the winter weather in the NH.
The snow data shows this clearly. Snow is increasing for the NH fall and winter seasons. Yet it is still decreasing for spring and summer. more of the asymmetrical climate change noted by researchers.
This most unexpected (to most climate scientists) turn of events may actually be the new climate change, and it might actually be due to CO2 and other warming factors. That is a big unknown of course. No model predicts this. At least not yet.
But if global warming actually is causing record cold, then it’s not even ironic to claim, in the midst of record cold, “I’m sick of this global warming!”.
Of course the experts and pundits who have been screaming about warming winters, loss of snow, the dangers to agriculture from warm winters, those experts are seriously concerned over this new global warming. Not only does it make them look completly wrong, even when they start saying “the warming is making it colder”, people are going to put their older claims up next to them, making them look like fools.
Also it just sounds fucked up when somebody points to a record cold event, like I did in the OP, and complains about the global warming.
There is also the serious problem of claiming CO2 causes the warming winters we saw from 1980-1995 (rough estimate, it’s complicated)
And CO also caused the cooling winter trend so obvious from 1995-2014
There’s where it gets fucked up for the science. Because in reality it is possible for an increase in the energy balance to cause cooling, not warming. Due to feedbacks from clouds, albedo changes and precipitation, warming may cause a cooling of the planet, in an asymmetric fashion. This is what we can actually observe has happened since at least 1995, but certainly from 2002 on.
But attributing it all to CO2 warming might be as stupid as saying all the warming from 1970-1998 was from CO2. We actually don’t know enough about climate and climate change still. This fact drives the alarmists nuts, but there it is.
That’s not a straw man but a fact: weather is not climate. And the trend does not show cooling. That’s why the red line moves upward.
Cherry-picking consists of looking at the blue lines.
The problem is not the cause of global warming but the effect of CO2 increase on various factors. This was explained to you thoroughly in previous messages.
No, it’s not another issue. That’s why it’s called “global warming” and not “NH warming.”
NH <> world.
Winter <> the whole year.
Increased snowfall doesn’t counter global warming, especially when you have prolonged drought and heat waves during the same year. Again, go back to the chart presented earlier. You are looking at the see-saw movement of temperature anomaly or the blue lines. Global warming refers to the red line.
Research is not needed to know that snow decreases during spring and summer.
Again, the problem isn’t the immediate cause of warming but the effect of CO2 increase on positive feedback. That cannot be predicted by models, which is why the effects are underestimated. This was explained earlier.
That’s because global warming does not refer to record cold. It refers to an increase in ave. global temperature anomaly, which in turn can cause extreme weather, and that includes record cold.
Given that, what should concern us is not the effect of a slight increase in temperature anomaly but the effect of extreme weather conditions on gas consumption, availability of water, crop production, etc.
The concern is not warming winters or loss of snow but extreme weather conditions. Read the NAS final report for more details.
Global warming may lead to increased precipitation and other conditions. See the NAS final report for details.