I'm sick of this Global Warming!

[FXMastermind]

@Fear_Itself

Sounds like the NH is warming more than you would like to admit: As The Planet Warms, A Remote Alaskan Town Shows Just How Unprepared We Are | HuffPost Latest News

Defiant as ever, the state that gave rise to Sarah Palin is bucking the mainstream yet again: While global temperatures surge hotter and the ice-cap crumbles, the nation’s icebox is getting even icier.

That may not be news to Alaskans coping with another round of 50-below during the coldest winter in two decades, or to the mariners locked out of the Bering Sea this spring by record ice growth.

Then again, it might. The 49th state has long been labeled one of the fastest-warming spots on the planet. But that’s so 20th Century.

In the first decade since 2000, the 49th state cooled 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit.

That’s a “large value for a decade,” the Alaska Climate Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks said in “The First Decade of the New Century: A Cooling Trend for Most of Alaska.”

Forget global warming, Alaska is headed for an ice age

Let’s take a look at the “The First Decade of the New Century: A Cooling Trend for Most of Alaska.”

We looked at the temperature trend of the first decade of
the 21st century for the 20 first order stations in Alaska and
found that 19 of the 20 stations showed a cooling trend.

Bentham Open Archives

How much you want to bet most of the cooling is from winters getting colder there?

When looking at the observed cooling trend for the mean
of Alaska by season, winter contributed the majority with
77%, followed by spring, which contributed 17%. The
temperature in summer and autumn cooled only very
slightly, with statistically non-significant values.

Forget global warming, Alaska is headed for an ice age - Anchorage Daily News

Well son of a bitch, that should show up on the GISS map.

Yep, there it is.

Is it still getting colder there? Yep, winters are trending down in Alaska.

But is it really “bucking the mainstream yet again”? Isn’t most of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere showing a cooling winter trend as well? Well, yeah, it is. Which is really fucking unexpected, but mother nature is a bitch and all that.

Not that you would be expected to know this, as the media is shit when it comes to science reporting. Or in this case, reporting what ordinary people fucking well know is happening.

Now how in the hell is the permafrost meting then?

Because just like most of the NH, summers, or the NH warm season, is still getting warmer, and this is happening in northern Alaska. It’s sort of fucked up. It really is. Colder winters, enough to bring the annual mean down (which is why the scientific paper states clearly Alaska is seeing a cooling trend since 2000), but spring and summer warming still happening.

Is this what global warming theory predicts? No fucking way. Is it what climate models predict?

Well, that’s a real good question to ask. Almost every climate model predicts the most warming in winter, and most runs predict warming in general. The vast majority of climate models runs show warming from increasing CO2.

And none of them show cooling for NH winters.

But, and this is a big “but” … if you add clouds to the theoretical set of formulas that we call a “climate model”, the scatter plot of the various outputs goes pretty fucking wild, and some of the “models” show a cooling effect from increasing water vapor. (page 390, Fundamentals of Physics and Chemistry of the Atmosphere, Volume 1 By Guido Visconti)

When you add infrared feedback, AND clouds to the models, the shit gets so crazy, Visconti describes it as “The uncertainty introduce by clouds in the model is rather large”, which is interesting, considering what he goes on to state on page 391.

In essence, even with out the disturbing factor of a quiet sun, increasing CO2 levels are shown to cause cooling, due to the effect on water vapor and clouds, by GCMs, when you run them with different sets of assumptions about what will actually happen.

Of course, as Visconti states on page 387, “As is custom in Physics, theories are compared with experimental data, and although GCMs are not the proper way to do theories, at the end they must deal with reality.”

[FXMastermind]

Denver sets new records

Five all time cold records in 3 days. Nov 13, 2014

But that is sort of old news, since Denver just broke several other all time cold records in the last week. Now breaking an all time daily record is pretty rare. Lowest high temp, lowest cold temp, those daily records were often seem in 1900, or 1898, or 1916.

Now breaking a record for cold might not mean anything, the old record for the day might not be that low. But looking at the records for Denver, these latest record breaking cold days actually are quite astounding.

Starting on December 24th
-25 °F (1876)
-15 °F (1876)
-15 °F (1876)
-5 °F (1982)
-10 °F (1904)
-12 °F (1983)
-15 °F (1983)
-19 °F (2014)
-19 °F (1900)
-19 °F (1901)
-17 °F (1911)
-17 °F (1974)

The low Maximum temp of 1 degree is even more astounding. But is it surprising?

When Trenberth wrote 2009, was talking about Colorado., "Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming? We are asking that here in Boulder where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest days on record. We had 4 inches of snow. The high the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was about 18F and also a record low, well below the previous record low.

The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment, and it is a travesty that we can’t. "

It’s ironic that 5 years later, records for cold are still being broken.

But is it surprising? Not if you look at the trends. Colorado, like many other places, shows a clear trend of colder for D-J-F

[Fear_Itself]

I’ll see your Denver, and raise you a Seattle and most of California:

Seattle sets record for warmest December

The average high temperature for the month was 50.2 degrees, breaking the old record of 49.8 degrees set in 1976. (We may climb to 50.3 depending on Wednesday’s final high temperature). The city also broke the record for warmest average overall temperature (45.3 degrees, record 45.2 in 1969). For low temperature we finished 3rd coldest at 40.3, behind the record of 40.7 in 1969, and 40.4 degrees in 1950.

The month featured 18 days at 50 degrees or warmer, including two days in the 60s. The 66 degree reading on Dec. 10 was the warmest December reading at Sea-Tac, besting the old record by 2 degrees. Only seven days were considered cooler than normal and only four of them were well below normal. On the other hand, 13 days were at least 9 degrees or more above normal.

California 2014 skating toward heat record

Most of California had record-setting temperatures between January and November, and the few pockets that didn’t still had above-average heat, Tardy said. The average temperature was 62.8 degrees, which is 4.1 degrees higher than the 20th century average.

Globally, the combined land and ocean average surface temperature for January through November was 1.2 degrees higher than the 20th century average, surpassing the previous record set in 2010 by .02 degrees, according to NOAA.

[septimus]

The left-wing rag Scientific American is calling 2014 the hottest year on record. I wonder what the deniers say about that?

I suppose that the more intelligent deniers are saying “Sure, but so what? Chance fluctuation, like being dealt a pat straight flush in a poker game.” :eek:

But it might be more amusing to hear what the blithering dolts say. Perhaps “It snowed in my town yesterday, so I know the scientists are just tools of Big Gore, blah blah blah.” I’ve set the dolts in this thread to Ignore; if any of them says something particularly amusing I hope y’all will Quote it for me.

[Happy_Fun_Ball]

FX, you are such a complete moron it is hard to fathom. I look forward to another year of your astounding idocy.

[The_Other_Waldo_Pepper]

@septimus

The left-wing rag Scientific American is calling 2014 the hottest year on record. I wonder what the deniers say about that?

I figure – and certainly hope – that deniers, and everyone else, would say “Well, if 2014 had been cooler than 2013, would that have counted against the theory? No? Then this doesn’t count in favor of it. If a cooler 2014 would’ve been evidence against a claim someone had boldly made, then this would be relevant; if not, it’s not.”

[FXMastermind]

@Fear_Itself

I’ll see your Denver, and raise you a Seattle and most of California:

You are doing exactly what drives actual climate science up the wall, conflating weather anomalies with climate. (I hope you are doing it in an ironic way)

It’s exactly why looking at long term data, and at trends, is so important, rather than taking any single event and screaming “OMG! Global warming!”.

Looking at Washington, Oregon and California data gives a different view of things.

Or we can combine months, states and look at the min and max readings, which should show us a greenhouse signal. Winter lows rising more than highs.

+ 1.6 for the lows
+2.1 for the highs

If we say the data is perfect (and it certainly is not) that alone shows it’s not greenhouse forcing causing the change. The CONUS figures also don’t show the human fingerprint.
(anyone can check)

In fact, looking at the twenty year trend for the CONUS winters shows -13.5 F a century for the lows, and -9.09 F for the highs, which is the opposite of greenhouse theory warming. (summer shows 4.84 F for the highs, 4.52 F for the highs)

Certainly the warmist will object that the US is not the world, but then we look at the global data and see the same thing, winters trending colder, while spring and summer getting warmer. At which point the true believer casts about for some other reason it doesn’t matter.

But in science, facts actually do matter.

[Fear_Itself]

@FXMastermind

You are doing exactly what drives actual climate science up the wall, conflating weather anomalies with climate.

So what is your excuse? All you do is post weather reports, as if they debunk global warming. Goose, gander, pot, kettle.

[FXMastermind]

@The_Other_Waldo_Pepper

I figure – and certainly hope – that deniers, and everyone else, would say *"Well, if 2014 had been cooler than 2013, would that have counted against the theory? No? Then this doesn’t count in favor of it.

Yes, in a rational world that might be the case. But rational thinking somehow seems to have flown the coop when it comes to the ill defined disaster that is global warming.

@The_Other_Waldo_Pepper

If a cooler 2014 would’ve been evidence against a claim someone had boldly made, then this would be relevant; if not, it’s not."*

But it’s so much worse than that. The “claims” are fluid and change to fit the current weather patterns. The essential thing is undeniable, but yet it is completely denied. Or worse, suddenly something that would be completely against the global warming theory, now becomes more proof that global warming is happening. If I was making it up, it would seem like satire.

@Fear_Itself

So what is your excuse? All you do is post weather reports, as if they debunk global warming.

If only that were true. That you actually believe what you wrote, it’s priceless.

@James_Toothpaste

@FXMastermind

Well, there is little doubt the predictions of the IPCC and the consensus and the models were right.

Global warming set to bring colder, snowier winters

Cold Winters Driven By Global Warming

Damn you global warming. Damn you all to hell.

Ugh, yes. :mad::mad::mad:

Somehow, and this just happened, in the last five years, colder winters, rather than being a challenge to the models (which do not predict this), have become EVIDENCE that global warming is happening. Would this have happened if winters were trending warmer? Of course not, that would seem like madness. But now, cold spells, winter storms, record cold, record snowfall, it’s evidence FOR global warming.

@FXMastermind

Oh sure you might say, that sounds like a load of horseshit. But even the SS is buying the global-warming-is-making-it-colder line.

Global Warming and Cold Winters

So remember, the next time you’re complaining about how fucking cold it is, or how unusual the snow is, remember, it’s global warming.

It’s impossibly ironic. Because I didn’t make it up, this is actually being repeated, or worse, stated as “a fact”. Somehow, after decades of warnings about the horrific effect warming winters would have, now colder winters are the danger from global warming.

And yet, at the same time, a warm December in Anchorage is also evidence of global warming. A lack of snow is evidence of global warming. (ignore the record amount of snow in Anchorage in the previous years, as well as the epic cold there)

So epic snowfall is global warming, and a lack of snow is global warming. Warming winters is global warming, and so is colder winters. If it doesn’t rain, that’s global warming. If it rains a lot, that is global warming. If sea ice decreases, that’s global warming. If it increases, that’s global warming.

But getting back to the real problem. In essence, the problem with the “this record cold is due to global warming” was summed up long ago.

@FXMastermind

@Bob's Zombie

The ‘it was cold today, therefore no global warming!’ argument is the stupidest possible argument on the subject,

I’m pretty sure saying ‘it was cold today, therefore it’s global warming’ sounds even worse.

[Subterraneanus]

FX, you’re a fucking idiot.

[Trinopus]

@FXMastermind

. . . Somehow, after decades of warnings about the horrific effect warming winters would have, now colder winters are the danger from global warming. . . .

Locally colder winters can be an indication of higher weather variability, which is not unexpected from a higher level of energy (heat) in the atmosphere.

You can laugh all you want at the “polar vortex” idea, but it seems to have some real validity. The atmosphere, being warmer, is “roiling” more, including bringing winds from the poles down to the horse latitudes.

The overall average temperature is still climbing, and this is the part that cites of colder local weather variation does not contradict.

Also, Subterraneanus is correct.

[septimus]

@The_Other_Waldo_Pepper

@septimus

The left-wing rag Scientific American is calling 2014 the hottest year on record. I wonder what the deniers say about that?

I suppose that the more intelligent deniers are saying “Sure, but so what? Chance fluctuation, like being dealt a pat straight flush in a poker game.” :eek: …

I figure – and certainly hope – that deniers, and everyone else, would say “Well, if 2014 had been cooler than 2013, would that have counted against the theory? No? Then this doesn’t count in favor of it. If a cooler 2014 would’ve been evidence against a claim someone had boldly made, then this would be relevant; if not, it’s not.”

I’ll try to paraphrase your thinking using the poker pat hand analogy:

Over four consecutive hands I’m dealt pat flush, pat full house, no pair, pat straight flush. I hypothesize that the dealer is stacking the deck. You respond “No, no. one of those hands was no-pair; the rest must be random fluctuations.”

Did I get the gist of your argument?

(And no, please don’t filibuster us yet again with your very flawed understanding of the scientific method.)

[The_Other_Waldo_Pepper]

@septimus

I’ll try to paraphrase your thinking using the poker pat hand analogy:

Over four consecutive hands I’m dealt pat flush, pat full house, no pair, pat straight flush. I hypothesize that the dealer is stacking the deck. You respond “No, no. one of those hands was no-pair; the rest must be random fluctuations.”

Did I get the gist of your argument?

Of course not.

You “paraphrase” me as saying “the rest must be random fluctuations”.

But I wouldn’t rule it out by declaring your hypothesis MUST be wrong; your leap to that conclusion shows you have no idea what the gist of my argument is.

No, I’d respond with a You May Be Right; Could Anything Prove You Wrong?

And if anyone else said “the rest must be random fluctuations” – well, I’d just as gladly respond to that with a You May Be Right; Could Anything Prove You Wrong? After all, I’m not the one making either claim; I’m neither advancing your hypothesis, nor saying it MUST be something else. Why, the very idea.

(And no, please don’t filibuster us yet again with your very flawed understanding of the scientific method.)

You say my understanding of the scientific method is flawed; I say your understanding of my position is flawed; your incorrect paraphrase proves the latter.

[tomndebb]

@FXMastermind

Yes, in a rational world that might be the case. But rational thinking somehow seems to have flown the coop when it comes to the ill defined disaster that is global warming.

As your posts persistently demonstrate.

@FXMastermind

Somehow, and this just happened, in the last five years, colder winters, rather than being a challenge to the models (which do not predict this), have become EVIDENCE that global warming is happening. Would this have happened if winters were trending warmer? Of course not, that would seem like madness. But now, cold spells, winter storms, record cold, record snowfall, it’s evidence FOR global warming.
It’s impossibly ironic. Because I didn’t make it up, this is actually being repeated, or worse, stated as “a fact”.

This, of course, is simply an utterly false creation of your polemic. There was plenty of discussion through the 1990s and 2000s about the fact that overall warming would change weather patterns across the world, resulting in the desertification of rainforests, the creation of humid tropics in currently sere regions, and even the cooling of temperate regions bringing snow to places that had never seen it, before. There may be the odd, unsupported individual claim that a local phenomenon is the result of AGW, but your overall claim that counterintuitive phenomena are all falsely laid to AGW is wrong and your broader claim that identification of counterintuitive phenomena were only introduced in the last five years while they have actually been predicteded for over twenty-five years is an (another) outright lie.

[The_Other_Waldo_Pepper]

@tomndebb

There may be the odd, unsupported individual claim that a local phenomenon is the result of AGW, but your overall claim that counterintuitive phenomena are all falsely laid to AGW is wrong and your broader claim that identification of counterintuitive phenomena were only introduced in the last five years while they have actually been predicteded for over twenty-five years is an (another) outright lie.

Outstanding first half of a response

I’d love to hear the second half: what, if anything, could happen this year – or this decade, or on any timetable you’d like – to count as evidence against the claim, let alone prove it false? What needs to happen in the future for you to say “Wow, that’s the exact opposite of what I predicted; I wonder what’s going on?”

[FXMastermind]

@The_Other_Waldo_Pepper

I’d love to hear the second half: what, if anything, could happen this year – or this decade, or on any timetable you’d like – to count as evidence against the claim, let alone prove it false? What needs to happen in the future for you to say “Wow, that’s the exact opposite of what I predicted; I wonder what’s going on?”

First, you have to actually get a claim from those making dire predictions about the climate. The most obvious one was that in general winters would be warmer, with less snow (except for Greenland). This is from the IPCC, but based on the consensus science of the time. While you may now hear somebody claiming the opposite, they can’t back that claim up with any actual science, or even a source. For example, in response to “Somehow, and this just happened, in the last five years, colder winters, rather than being a challenge to the models (which do not predict this), have become EVIDENCE that global warming is happening. Would this have happened if winters were trending warmer? Of course not, that would seem like madness.”

@tomndebb

This, of course, is simply an utterly false creation of your polemic.

Really? Because it seems like you are saying that if winters were trending warmer (with less snow), we would still be hearing that global warming is making winters colder. Of course you don’t provide any evidence for any of your claims, which makes it just more rhetoric.

@tomndebb

There may be the odd, unsupported individual claim that a local phenomenon is the result of AGW, but your overall claim that counterintuitive phenomena are all falsely laid to AGW is wrong

That’s your strawman argument, but even so, you provide no evidence, just your own claim.

@tomndebb

your broader claim that identification of counterintuitive phenomena were only introduced in the last five years while they have actually been predicteded for over twenty-five years is an (another) outright lie.

I never used the term “counterintuitive phenomena”, much less claimed any of what you just wrote. Strawman argument, but even so, zero evidence to support your claims.

What I have said, many many times, is that in the last five years we have witnessed more and more people who have been claiming global warming, switching from “oh it’s just a cold winter, they will still happen, just not as often”, to “this record cold is due to global warming”.

Let’s make this crystal clear for the fuckheads of the Universe.

In 2009, the unusual cold would be handwaved away, dismissed as natural variation, or explained with “there will still be a cold winter, but winters are trending warmer over all”, something to that effect.

In 2014 (and starting in 2010) the extreme cold and snow is now evidence of global warming, and we should expect winters to get worse, due to global warming changing things.

[Fear_Itself]

@FXMastermind

Let’s make this crystal clear for the fuckheads of the Universe.

In 2009, the unusual cold would be handwaved away, dismissed as natural variation, or explained with “there will still be a cold winter, but winters are trending warmer over all”, something to that effect.

Says the guy with no grasp of the way global averages work.

[The_Other_Waldo_Pepper]

@Fear_Itself

Says the guy with no grasp of the way global averages work.

So tell him.

If you want to shut him up and shut this thread down, tell him what would count.

I’m about to put words in your mouth – and if I’m wrong, I apologize; but if I’m wrong, tell me what your answer really is – because I’m wondering if you could’ve settled this for him a year or two ago with a sentence or two.

Look, FX, you could’ve said, I’m saying the global average temperature will rise by at least a tenth of a degree per decade; if next year is cooler than the one before it, or a locality experiences record-breaking cold, that’s irrelevant to whether the global average temperature is rising by at least a tenth of a degree per decade.

If that had been post #2, then what would FX have spent 2014 writing about? Every time he mentioned cold and snow in 2014, you could’ve reminded him of why that’s irrelevant in the face of your claim. And so maybe he wouldn’t have bothered to mention cold and snow in 2014, since you would’ve already shown him.

You could do it for 2015, if I’m representing you accurately: if you’re predicting a rise in global average that’s at least a tenth of a degree per decade – or whatever – then here and now in January you can tell him why (a) nothing could happen between now and December to prove your prediction wrong, and so (b) there’s no reason for him to keep posting stuff about record-breaking cold and snow and et cetera.

If you leave your claim vague, he has to guess at what would count as an attack on it. Spell your claim out and he’ll know what’s irrelevant.

[tomndebb]

@FXMastermind

Really? Because it seems like you are saying that if winters were trending warmer (with less snow), we would still be hearing that global warming is making winters colder. Of course you don’t provide any evidence for any of your claims, which makes it just more rhetoric.

My claim is what I posted. The idea that local situations will differ from a general warming trend due to the disruptions in the global weather patterns is far older than your lie that it began five years ago. I have made no predictions regarding which regions will undergo what changes.

@FXMastermind

I never used the term “counterintuitive phenomena”, much less claimed any of what you just wrote. Strawman argument, but even so, zero evidence to support your claims.

I never claimed you used the phrase “counterintuitive phenomenon” and doubt that you understood what it meant before you looked it up in a dictionary. The notion that AGW will produce local variations that will result in cooler temperatures is a phenomenon that is counterintuitive, hence the term I chose. It has been mentioned in various fora for at least two and a half decades, so your “five years” claim is false. For example, here is one discussion, (note that I do not claim it is a prediction), from ten years ago: How Global Warming Can Chill the Planet | Live Science

[tomndebb]

@The_Other_Waldo_Pepper

If you want to shut him up and shut this thread down, tell him what would count.

I’m about to put words in your mouth – and if I’m wrong, I apologize; but if I’m wrong, tell me what your answer really is – because I’m wondering if you could’ve settled this for him a year or two ago with a sentence or two.

Nothing (including a time machine visit to the future that came back with evidence of the effects of AGW) is going to shut down this thread or that poster: he is having too much fun baiting people.