I'm sick of this Global Warming!

[DMC]

@FXMastermind

If you made up a cool data display (and it is, no doubt) showing just the northern hemisphere land data, it would be much better for your case. The only connection to the global mean is that the NH land trend for winters is so much cooler, it actually brings the annual mean down. You seem to be missing this essential fact.

Just northern hemisphere land data. Still no trend shrinkage. Got any more places to put those goalposts?

[FXMastermind]

@DMC

While I was really pointing out that FX specifically chose 1995 (which had a very hot February) and 2014 (which had a relatively cold February)

@FXMastermind

North America shows a cooling trend for winter from 2002-2014, not from 1990.

The CONUS shows a winter cooling trend from 1990, as does Europe

Alaska shows a clear winter cooling trend since 2000

Asia shows a winter cooling trend from 1986-2014, while Siberia shows a cooling trend since 1993

@DMC

When FX wants to try and show cooling trends, he more typically cherry picks 1998 as the starting point.

It’s hilarious when somebody says “wants to try and show”, making it seem like there is some sort of “desire”, that “he wants”, which is just special. The only thing I “want” in regards to global warming, is for fossil fuels to be replaced by something not horrible. For coal miners to stop destroying entire mountains in West Virginia, for the massive pollution of the atmosphere to fucking stop, I “want” some goddamn magical solution so we don’t suck every last drop of oil and natural gas out and burn it. (I will spare you the long version of that rant)

@FXMastermind

Over the long term, the trend is warming, even if we see an 12 year slight decrease, the long term trend is still warming.

[VinylTurnip]

So why not end this ouroboros of tardery and start a thread about alternative energy sources instead?

[FXMastermind]

@VinylTurnip

So why not end this ouroboros of tardery and start a thread about alternative energy sources instead?

There already is one. Questions and suggestions about the larger issues don’t seem to be welcome here, which should be no surprise to some. I started this thread in MPSIMS, with the idea of discussing the seeming facts about the enhanced greenhouse effect having a counter intuitive effect, as well as the unusual cold at the time. This was well before the epic record breaking cold of the 2014 winter.

@Marley23

Moved to the BBQ Pit (from MPSIMS) so the OP can rant in peace.

See? Of course it sort of turned out for the best, since we lost Garbage spewer, and the usual trolls and insulting shitbags can vent their spleen, with out resorting to thinly veiled sincerity, which we see in GD all the goddamn time.

[Sailboat]

Hope I’m not bringing up something that’s already been posted.

A division of NOAA reports 2014 was the hottest year since record keeping began.

And what are the odds of this?

The announcement marks the third time the past decade has produced record-setting warmth on an annual basis.

But 2014’s warmth was historic, and it surpassed the prior records in 2005 and 2010, the agency said.

[statij]

Yeah, but… Winter. In the northern hemisphere. On land. Over very specific and arbitrary time frames. Here let me quote myself where I said so several times.

[Knorf]

And look there’s a pretty picture! BUT LOOK! It shows cooling all over the place! >cherry-picking< >froth< >anti-science rant< >pass out<

[Trinopus]

And the fourth derivative of the curve is negative, showing that the rate of increase of the rate of increase of the rate of increase of the rate of increase of temperatures is decreasing!

(Only half joking, considering we sometimes hear how the rate of increase of the U.S. National Debt is slowing, as if that’s some sort of good news…)

[Aji_de_Gallina]

@DMC

While I was really pointing out that FX specifically chose 1995 (which had a very hot February) and 2014 (which had a relatively cold February), no, I don’t see that the trend gets smaller. What I do see is that the past few years have had a February that was closer to the baseline than it has been in a while, i.e. natural cycle of upward trends. This was especially true in 2014. A month here and there being colder than expected doesn’t demonstrate that the warming trend is getting smaller. The trend, specifically how much hotter any given February is than it was 20 years prior is actually pretty flat.

You can see it here. For the trend starting in 1975, I ended in 1994. 1976 ends in 1995. 1977 ends in 1996, etc.

Looks flat to me. By flat, I don’t mean there is no increase in Feb temps over the 20 year periods, I mean it is increasing by about .44 degrees C on average and has met that value or exceeded it in 12 of the 15 last cycles in that chart. Now, I can certainly pick other starting or ending points, or different cycle lengths, and come up with any theory that you want, but if I take a large enough sample size, I’m going to get similar results. Clear?

@DMC

Just for kicks, if you really want to see the winter warming trend, you can have a lot of fun with this. I included every single year from GISS for which there is complete data (1881-2013) and you can select any of the columns they have to offer, showing the anomaly from baseline for that period. I pre-selected winter and used the entire set of years as a starting point, which makes it pretty obvious that there is no shrinkage of the warming trend for winters.

Assuming you’re not just another one of FX’s little shills (and I have no idea of your posting history on the topic, so I’m certainly not making such an assumption), you might find this enlightening.

I commented that your very own numbers were smaller and smaller.
0.37 / 0.34 / 0.26 / 0.28 / 0.26 / 0.16 / 0.03
and that they would go negative if you did something like 2003-2013.
(The second dereivative of such a function* is centrainly negative, which means that the function gets a negative first derivative and later a negative value.

• I know it’s not a function, but if we treated those numbers as such, then that’s be the result)

I really don’t want to argue that the world has gotten warmer over the las 100+ years because neither I nor anybody in the SDMB thinks the opposite.

[DMC]

@Aji_de_Gallina

I commented that your very own numbers were smaller and smaller.
0.37 / 0.34 / 0.26 / 0.28 / 0.26 / 0.16 / 0.03
and that they would go negative if you did something like 2003-2013.
(The second dereivative of such a function* is centrainly negative, which means that the function gets a negative first derivative and later a negative value.

• I know it’s not a function, but if we treated those numbers as such, then that’s be the result)

And before they got smaller they got bigger, and before that they got smaller, and before that they got bigger. Comparing any given month (and remember, this is a single month, not winter) to the same month 20 years prior will show fluctuations over time, and in the last few years, February was indeed colder than it has been lately. On the other hand, the trend line of such fluctuations over more than 20 sets of numbers is flat (as I demonstrated), so no, we’re not seeing a significant pattern of cooling in 20 year cycles up to this point. If you look at my most recent charts, you’ll see that even the month of February is above the trend line far more than it’s below and if you look at the full winter, you’ll note that only one time has the winter dipped below the trend line in the past 20 years. It was pretty obvious that FX picked a specific starting and ending year as well as a particular month for a very specific reason and that reason was anything but “science.”

So no, winters are not getting cooler, nor slowing down in their warming.

[Aji_de_Gallina]

@DMC

And before they got smaller they got bigger, and before that they got smaller, and before that they got bigger. Comparing any given month (and remember, this is a single month, not winter) to the same month 20 years prior will show fluctuations over time, and in the last few years, February was indeed colder than it has been lately. On the other hand, the trend line of such fluctuations over more than 20 sets of numbers is flat (as I demonstrated), so no, we’re not seeing a significant pattern of cooling in 20 year cycles up to this point. If you look at my most recent charts, you’ll see that even the month of February is above the trend line far more than it’s below and if you look at the full winter, you’ll note that only one time has the winter dipped below the trend line in the past 20 years. It was pretty obvious that FX picked a specific starting and ending year as well as a particular month for a very specific reason and that reason was anything but “science.”

So no, winters are not getting cooler, nor slowing down in their warming.

You posted numbers.
The numbers got smaller.
I said that the numbers got smaller and might harm your case.
I won’t bother you again.

[DMC]

@Aji_de_Gallina

You posted numbers.
The numbers got smaller.
I said that the numbers got smaller and might harm your case.
I won’t bother you again.

Okey dokey. As an aside, it was pretty cold last week as well. Warm the week before and will be warm next week, but hey, the numbers got smaller for a bit.

[sweat209]

@sweat209

Normally the winters where warming up and they called it global warming. Now last year and this year winters are very cold.:mad::mad: Tell that to people who live in Dallas and Atlanta experiencing colder than normal winters.:mad::mad:

Even some parts of North Florida are colder than normal. No explanation of why the colder than normal winters in US even in the southern states.

Now they call it climate change than global warming.

@FXMastermind

No, and here is some scientific data about the naming thing.

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/climate_by_any_other_name.html

Okay FXMastermind so if the earth is warming up because of global warming why was last winter and this winter so colder than normal in Dallas and Atlanta. I can see one winter but two winters.

[Aji_de_Gallina]

@DMC

Okey dokey. As an aside, it was pretty cold last week as well. Warm the week before and will be warm next week, but hey, the numbers got smaller for a bit.

I’m sorry your very own numbers got you butthurt.
Also, comapring 20-year trends with 20 day-trends is beyond silly, even as a butthurt joke.
Agains, I’m sorry you posted numbers that make you butthurt.
Do you even math?

[FXMastermind]

@Sailboat

A division of NOAA reports 2014 was the hottest year since record keeping began.

And what are the odds of this?

Just using the GISS analysis of the global annual mean, you can easily see the chances are pretty much 100%. Especially since it has happened so many times already. From 1880-1945 the odds of each year being “warmer” than all the previous ones was extremely high. That’s 65 years of “we have never measured a year this warm before”. If you hear anybody telling you the odds of this happening are a million to one (or whatever), you know it’s bullshit.

@sweat209

Okay FXMastermind so if the earth is warming up because of global warming why was last winter and this winter so colder than normal in Dallas and Atlanta. I can see one winter but two winters.

Two winters? The extreme cold (and snowy) winters have been happening for much longer than that. Atlanta and Texas just missed most of the bad shit so far.

As for the question, I can’t actually say I know why. The best theories to explain it are Cohen’s (and others who are saying almost the same thing), and the solar scientists who believe solar influences are causing the cold winters. (either through ozone changes, or circulation changes, from the effects of high energy changes to the upper atmosphere)

Cohen’s sCast model usually does a good job of actually predicting the regions and intensity of the cold, but his predictions for snow are not as accurate.

And the snow is the really big issue. It’s pretty easy to get temperatures wrong (for example, the change to electronic automated thermometers introduced a bias of .9 C warming to every station that switched over)

But we use satellites to map snow extent (snow cover) and there is little chance between the visual and radar data, that anyone can change the figures to make it seem like there is less snow now. The snowfall, snow extent, even snow amounts (water equivalent data) tell a story that the alarmists avoid like crazy. (unless they have started claiming record snow is from global warming)

Snow has increased so much, along with the much colder winters, we can say with confidence, do to the measurement certainty, that the most recent winters have had the most snow ever recorded worldwide. (spring and summers still show the lowest snow cover ever)

This of course matches the satellite data for temperatures, which show clearly the colder winters, as well as the lack of over all warming annually. The surface station data (which GISS uses) is the only calculation to show the world is warmer than ever before. Comparing the calculated surface station temps with the satellite and balloon data show how much the two methods have diverged at this point.

Which is another death blow to the global warming theory. The lower troposphere should be warming more than the surface. If you trust the data, that isn’t happening either.

So we have colder winters, not warmer.

Oceans warming while land stays the same, or cools.

Surface warming more than lower atmosphere.

Greatly increased snowfall during boreal winter.

Land and sea average not increasing as fast as models predicted.

All of which show the theory is wrong. Yet to listen those who would control the world, using climate as a stick, they are 100% right about everything , and global warming is happening just as they told us it would.

Priceless.

[FXMastermind]

The scientific explanation fall the above would be a huge long post, that would take a lot of time to compose, and would pretty much be ignored of course. So if you want the long scientific reasoning and sources for it, send me a PM. I’m about done casting pearls before swine

[FXMastermind]

@brazil84

Not really. There’s no point in discussing it if the warmists refuse to even understand what the actual controversy is.

But that sums up almost every last thing involved.

Like we see here with the winter data and trends using GISS data. It’s obvious, I mean really obvious using just the GISS data, that winters are no longer the fastest warming season, that the trend is flat, or negative, and it’s due to January and February (late boreal winter), and that it’s an actual trend, long enough to not be dismissed as natural variation, but the warmists doesn’t eve understand what it means. Or they just say it isn’t even happening.

[Lobohan]

Define warmist. What specific ideas do you attribute to them?

[FXMastermind]

@Lobohan

Define warmist.

1. An absolute belief that humans are primarily or even completely responsible for causing a mass climate change which will raise the average temperature of the planet.

2. Will not entertain the idea that it is possible that natural phenomena may cause climate change, regardless of any evidence.

3. Believes it is a good thing to throw billions upon billions of dollars at an idea that may or may not work to stop climate change, “just in case.”

4. Believes that natural disasters such as hurricanes and earthquakes are an indirect result of humankind’s actions to cause climate change.

5. Shouts down, puts down, and insults anyone whose beliefs run contrary to their own, rather than having intelligent discourse. A zealot for their cause.

[FXMastermind]

And for balance (since we are going to label everyone into two camps)

global warming deniers sliding scale (I didn’t even know this existed until just now)

Global warming deniers form a sliding scale of denial which is outlined below — in general these beliefs are designed to prevent action being taken.

Not only deny global warming, but insist the opposite is occurring (taken from the Conservapedia homepage). This probably goes beyond denialism and verges on the psychotic.
Simply deny global warming is happening[27] — and maintain that no action is necessary — an increasingly uncommon position.
Global warming is happening, but it’s not caused by humanity — so we don’t have to do anything.
Global warming is happening, and it is in part caused by humanity, but mostly it’s caused by solar activity — so we don’t have to do anything.
Global warming is happening, and it is in part caused by humanity, but predicting future emission levels is equivalent to astrology — so we don’t have to do anything, Ehrlich![28]
Global warming is happening, it is caused by humanity, but it may be a good thing — so we don’t have to do anything.[29]
Global warming is happening, it is caused by humanity, it may be a bad thing, but there are still more serious crises that deserve higher priority — so we don’t have to do anything.
Global warming is happening, it is caused by humanity, it is a bad thing, but China and India aren’t doing anything — so we don’t have to do anything.[30]
Global warming is happening, it is caused by humanity, it is a bad thing, and maybe China and India are willing to do something, but I’ve heard about this new energy source/technology that’s going to completely solve the problem in 10-20 years — so we don’t have to do anything.
Global warming is happening, it is caused by humanity, it is a bad thing, but even if China and India do something it’s too late for us to do anything and it would cost us a shitload of dough — so we don’t have to do anything.
(There is an hypothesized eleventh step, “Global warming was happening, it was caused by humanity, it is a very bad thing and previous governments could and should have done something, but it’s too late now!”)

Climate change

Goddamn it, I can’t fit myself into any of those categories.

edit - for ultimate irony, skeptic wiki doesn’t define or explain the global warming theory, in fact, just like wikipedia, there is no entry