Actually I thought of a better way to ask this question:
Please give 3 examples of “disruption” for which there is “strong” evidence it is caused by global warming as you have defined it. And please summarize this “strong” evidence.
Oh, and please identify the poster I supposedly misquoted.
P.S. are you willing to give me the same rules of evidence I’ve given you? You haven’t proven I’m a liar, yet you happily repeat, ad nauseam, that I am one.
You overlook the possibility that I might actually believe what I said, in which case it is not a lie, by definition.
You’re a hypocrite.
Oh, also, you misused the term “ad hominem,” which is a fallacious form of argument. “You’re wrong because you’re stupid.” What I said was merely abuse. You’re stupid.
:shrug: I gave you multiple opportunities to back up your claim and you evaded, dodged, and weaseled.
I also know that when I quote people, I normally either use the quote function or cut and past so the likelihood of my misquoting anyone is pretty minimal.
Under the circumstances, it’s reasonable to conclude you are lying.
Please give 3 examples of “disruption” for which there is “strong” evidence it is caused by global warming as you have defined it. And please summarize this “strong” evidence.
Oh, and please identify the poster I supposedly misquoted.
Edit: Also, does it surprise you to learn I agree that mankind’s CO2 emissions are likely to result in higher global surface temperatures due to an enhanced greenhouse effect?
Sometimes I go back and read what was being said a year ago.
Now it’s ironic that a year later, we see Toronto having the coldest winter there that anyone alive has ever lived through.
To me, the most important thing is, to find out is this due to human causes or not? Everybody alive knows good and well the predictions have been, as we see in the comment about Toronto, that the cold northern climates should see warmer winters.
Not record cold.
What is actually happening? That is the real question.
Not really. A better question would be along the lines of asking if this anomaly negates all the other observations and measurements. Toronto had a weird winter? Does that mean the glaciers aren’t melting? Might as well claim that the drought in California totally proves global warming. No, it is consistent with AGW, but that is about as much as you can glean from any one set of circumstances.
Not to say there are no scientific theories that cannot be torpedoed by a single anomaly. If you could prove that you could take a five pound ball and a ten pound ball and drop them from the same height, and the ten pounder would land sooner, there would be widespread consternation in the science community. Boffins be getting shitfaced drunk in every bar in the country.
Its all about patterns and probability. And in that case, anomaly is expected. AGW cannot reliably predict the winter temperature in Toronto. Not the point. Does it reliably predict a much greater probability that the average temperature of the atmosphere is one to three degrees warmer? Consensus appears to be yes.
If this Toronto anomaly was so devastating, wouldn’t you expect to be reading how thousands of world scientists were reversing their previous opinion? See any of that going on? Is it the crushing power of Al Gore and his minions that are stifling the news?
This is why I am tempted to always type out a much longer post, because there is a good chance it will be the only one somebody reads, but goddamn it seems rude. Like science, each current post is built on countless previous posts, and just like science, with out extensive study of the past, the present may seem unfathomable, or simply wrong.
It’s not the anomaly, it’s that this record cold is part of a long term trend that makes it important, especially to know if it is going to continue.
The trend shows up easily using just February, and in many areas of the NH, Feb is the coldest month. (Jan for other areas) That blue area of North America (NAm) certainly is odd, it should not be there, under AGW theory. However, looking at the more recent trend clearly shows the problem. Or problems. Expanding to look at Jan-Mar shows it’s not an anomaly, it’s a trend.
The first protest will be it’s cherry picking too short a period. The twenty year trend shows that approach is biased, and wrong. Certainly cherry picking the start and end dates can juggle the numbers, but it’s clearly a trend, in the areas effected. Which is why a record cold month, for large areas, is a problem for the current theory.
No, nobody will get drunk over it, much less has the data overturned physics. (this is why I introduced Cohen’s research early on) Science doesn’t work like that.
The denier will of course insist it’s still too short, so a thirty year trend showing the areas cooling still won’t matter to them, they will switch to “but globally”. Which is why seeing globally a negative trend, is really disturbing. Not to an alarmists of course, they can mentally avoid the facts with ease. They just don’t see those cold areas as important. It’s the same thing with record snowfall amounts. Instead of seeing that as an important event, they actually switch somehow and claim it actually means it’s getting warmer!
They can look at a 17 year trend showing colder global land temps, and a global increase in NH snow for the same period, and still say “the snow is because it’s getting warmer.” Which is insane of course. Or they might switch to “the ocean is warming”, which is even worse for the glib dismissal of cold and snow.
Now why all of this matters is complicated, and experience has shown, somebody who already knows it all just won’t care. They are sure the only reason to even discuss it is to “attack” science, and it’s about keeping fossil fuels. Which is even more insane than the “it snow more because it hot” line of reasoning.
I hate fossil fuels and the pollution from the. And I really hate the corporations that control fuels.
But when it comes to a cooling winter trend, we have to deal with how to keep people warm. With out fuels.
Well, this would certainly explain why all those scientists who signed off on GW have had such a dramatic change of mind. Everwhere you look, they are recanting, en masse, like a stampede of boffins. Now, truth be known, i don’t actually have a citation for that, but you almost certainly do, since you are so totally on top of this.
Please proceed.
Don’t feel bad, Neo. Everybody falls their first time.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/04/30/3652549/climate-denial-debunking-101/
I don’t need a course to tell me that! Facts are the last thing that will change somebodies mind.
I think that for the most part, people believe in “global warming” because they have been convinced that morally and intellectually superior people believe in it.
What’s my evidence? The vast majority of people who believe in “global warming” are unable to set forth (1) a precise definition of what they believe in; (2) what specific predictions are made by their belief; and (3) a summary of the best evidence in favor of their belief. Therefore it’s reasonable to conclude that their beliefs are for emotional reasons and not based on facts, logic, or evidence.
The vast majority of people who receive electricity in their home that is generated from nuclear power plants cannot define nuclear energy.
Therefore it doesn’t exist…
Well, I think you are stretching things, but that’s your opinion. Since 6 years ago I was a “believer”, I have a different take on why so many people don’t ever question anything, and have a rabid hatred of anyone who does.
In my case it was just a resigned cynicism, if I bothered to comment on any global warming nonsense (it is all seemed like nonsense), it was a sarcastic poke at anyone who seemed to question the settled science. Much to my shame, when the third record blizzard hit in 2010, I was still trying to defend, as Trenberth did, the idea that there was so much snow and cold because it was warmer. It wasn’t until I actually bothered to look at actual data, that the story we were fed started to look like some serious bullshit.
Five years later, it’s obviously some serious bullshit. This does not mean we are not changing things. If anything, the astute reader should know I think climate is changing, for large areas of the world, and that it is indeed possible some of it is from our changing the very chemistry of our atmosphere. I’ve always know contrails were fucking things up, and ozone depletion is a serious problem, and of course the rampant deforestation and agriculture (think of the rain forest), along with drastic UHI effects. But I just assumed the official story was right, and we were fucked, so what was the point of arguing with idiots about it?
And I know full well if winters had continued to be milder, snow was much less, strange warm periods (like 2012) were happening in the eastern US, that we would be hearing how that was sure evidence of global warming.
Now record cold and snow is called “sure evidence” of global warming. You can’t do that. You can’t change the story and expect nobody to call you on it. All the idiot arguments just make it more obvious that the story is bullshit. Every Argument From Spurious Similarity, or attempt at Changing The Subject (Digression, Red Herring, Misdirection, False Emphasis) used by alarmists just makes it more obvious that there is some high level bullshit happening.
It’s really fucked up because it’s like an infection of stupid that is covering up actual science and things that really matter.
Of course you can say “it’s just internet”, but it’s not. It’s TV and print media, it’s laws and politics, it’s taught in schools and idiots watch Al Gore and think he means something, They gave him a Nobel prize for bullshit. It’s that bad.
You can see the level of infectious bullshit anytime clear evidence is presented. It never makes it past the filter, and we just see rage and spittle, and insulting fuckhead behavior. Meanwhile, the coldest goddamn winter ever on record happens, and to the fuckhead it actually does not mean anything to them.
It’s such blindness and idiocy, it can’t be explained in any rational way. It’s like dealing with the religious. And there is never any winning with them.
Look everybody! ** FX** has a data point! Fucking huge data point, totally falsifies all that other data. Ought to have one of those click-bait ads “Local Doper Discovers Fact That Warmist Scientists Don’t Want You to Know!”.
Gosh, nobody knows about this, then? Is that why all those scientists haven’t published recantations of their previous AGW opinions? The news hasn’t gotten out, suppressed by the Algore Cabal?
Look FW, we all admire solid science, its beautiful, if somewhat austere. The fact that a lovely and elegant theory can be murdered by a single well-made experiment is totally cool, because science is the only form of human intellectual endeavor where certainty is actually possible. And who doesn’t crave certainty?
But this sort of science is not that kind of science, this is the science of determining trends that by themselves are subtle but in the aggregate become huge. Your anomaly is not falsification, it is the kind to thing you expect in science like this, its bound to happen. You should be more suspicious if it didn’t happen, it might imply that somebody was fudging the numbers.
I don’t know what it is you are talking about. Coldest winter ever? One anomaly is just that, an unusual unexplained season, that makes no sense. Two in a row is meaningful, but not a trend.
But over a thirty year period, is climate is warming, and warming fastest in winter, it should show up, If it doesn’t, something is wrong with how we measure, or the theory that says “enhanced greenhouse warming will be most evident in winter, over land”.
Ah! That certainly explains the stampede of boffins rushing to endorse your opinion! I commend your refusal to gloat about that, or even mention it, much less offer a citation. Such modesty and restraint is commendable!
GIGO? You done with lunch yet? Got stuff to do today, so I don’t have a lot of time, so if you could tag me out pretty soon? K, tx, bye.
Coldest winter on record? How about WARMEST instead.
All of FX’s climate data comes from a little thermometer stuck to his kitchen window.
Sheeeesh. This is precisely the kind of cherry-picking that smart people, like Sen. Jim Inhofe and FXMastermind, complain about.
So you used the “globe” for your data, hunh? Wherever that is. Why not use New Hampshire like smart people do? Hunh?
Lazy bum should have been back by now. Hate waiting for GIGO.
Anyway, does anyone else see the investment opportunities in cactus agriculture? Wave of the future, cactus bread, crackers, Doritos. Gluten free, pretty sure.