Well, balls.
Personal experience. No, I wasn’t a terrorist, but I certainly had to think like one for a good number of years because I was doing “questionable things” and needed to avoid “imperial entanglements.” In case you’re wondering, I’m no longer in that “line of work” and other than a few traffic regulations, I’m a law abiding citizen these days.
Mind you, we never spent two years planning any of our “operations,” but then again, ours weren’t the “high risk, high profile” operations that the terrorists pulled off in Spain, but you sure as shit don’t plan it one weekend, and pull it off the next.
If you want an idea of what the terrorists would have had to do to pull this off, here’s what you do:
1.) Pick a city you’ve never been to, preferrably in another country that speaks a language you’re unfamiliar with. Admittedly, this last part isn’t practical for the majority of us, so pick one that’s at least in another state.
2.) Learn everything you can about that city, and select a list of “targets” (no, you won’t be expected to blow anything up in any of this). These targets need to have the desired impact of disrupting the lives of the citizens there (no, I’m not going to give you any hints as to what would make good targets, you need to figure that out on your own).
3.) Now, make arrangements to travel to this city, you’re not allowed to stay with anyone you might know there, or even have contact with them. You’re going to go into this city cold.
4.) Here’s what you’re going to want to know about your “targets” within the city before you visit. You’re going to want to know all the routes to and from the “target”. Not only because you’ll need them to make your escape, but you’re going to want to know the possible routes for the authorites to take on they’re way to the “target.” Even assuming a delayed action, you’re going to want to plan escape routes in case something goes wrong while you’re in the target area. Like say, “Agent Blue” suddenly has a change of heart and blabs the details to the first cop he sees.
5.) You’re going to want to know the patrol patterns of the authorities in the area. How often do they come around the “target”? Do they swing by at the same time every day or is it random intervals? Where’s the nearest office that the authorities operate out of? (This would include police, fire, state and federal authorities as well as any "rent-a-cops who might be on scene.) What’s their usual response time to an emergency call? Also, are there any searches or metal detectors that you have to go through to get to the “target”? If so, how easy is it going to be to smuggle something through? If it’s too onerous, then you’re better off selecting another “target,” in which case you have to everything over again. Don’t forget that you’re going to want to know what kind of things the authorities pull people over for. Do they pull over every car they see with a tail light out? Are they pulling over cars with out of state tags for exceeding the speedlimit by a small amount? (On the interstates around Memphis, TN they pull over every car with out of state tags that’s traveling 1 MPH over the speed limit and search the car, to ensure you’re not trying to smuggle drugs.)
6.) The traffic patterns in the “target” area. If you’re planning the event to happen at the height of rush hour, how easy is going to be for you to get out of the area without attracting attention? Best bet is to rely on personal transportation, and not mass transit. Too easy for mass trans to be shut down with one call by the authorities, in which case, you’re most likely fucked if you’re on the subway.
7.) You’re going to want an accurate and detailed floor plan of the “target” area, one which notates the location of every possible exit (If you have to, can you break out a window in the bathroom and escape that way?), security camera, and the number of guards (armed or unarmed). If things go wrong, you’re going to need to get out of there in a hurry, and since most folks have cell phones, even if there’s no cops there, you can bet that folks will be punching 911 into their phones if they have an idea you’re up to no good.
8.) Remember that you can’t attract attention while you’re doing this, so you’ll have to go “tourist.”
9.) Once you’ve done that, and are back home, go to someplace in your city that you’re familiar with, which is similar to the “target” in the selected city. Do the same thing in that place that you did at the “target” area. You’ll be surprised at the number of things you’ve (most likely) never noticed before. You might want to go back to the “target” area again and double check your work to make sure you didn’t miss anything.
10.) If you’re confident with your work, it’s time for the “dry run.” You’re now going to attempt to do everything a terrorist would do, but not plant a bomb. (Yes, terrorists do this as well.) You’re going to want to go through the operation a number of times, practicing what will happen if everything goes right, but most importantly, you want to practice what happens when things go wrong. To simulate the tension a terrorist would feel while doing this (since at least one of their dry runs will involve carrying the materials they intend to use for the operation, if for no other reason than to get used to carrying the added weight around and to sniff out anything that you might have missed in the way of detection gear), wear something which really makes you stand out. Not that a terrorist would necessarily do such a thing, but you’re a lawabiding citizen, and you probably have no idea what it’s like to be wandering around in public with something on your possession which could get you arrested, so wear something like a giant rainbow head wig (assuming they’re not common in your “target” area) and a T-Shirt which says, “I’m with stupid” and has the arrow pointing upwards.
11.) After your dry run with the rainbow head wig and T-shirt, do another dressed as you normally do. Now remember that nearly everyone in the place has seen your face before and has a reason to remember it…
12.) If your really dedicated to your cause, do all of this with the alternative “targets” in the selected city, since you have to be prepared to switch “targets” in case something happens at the primary “target” on your day of operation which would make it impossible for you to pull off your operation. Like say, a dignitary with lots of security decides to visit your “target” on the day you planned for the “big one.” While he certainly be a tempting “target,” unless you’re doing a suicide operation, it probably wouldn’t be worth the risk of trying to take him out. Of course, this does mean that security will probably be light at your alternate “targets” and the authorities will no doubt have a slightly longer response time (since they’ll be diverting the bulk of their forces to protect the dignitary, expecting trouble where he is).
Cervaise, you’ve very nearly proved my point. You’ve got a “base of operations” in that city and you’ve spent some amount of time there (How long, exactly, if you don’t mind my asking?), so you’ve already got some of the basic information down, you’ll still need to do most of the steps I’ve talked about, but you probably already the roads around the “target” area in your city. You’ll know what kinds of things the cops pull people over for, and when they’re most likely to do that. Someone who’s “just visiting” isn’t likely to know that.
Keep it comin’, Tuck, the rapid-response conspiracy theories need to be quelled 'til more substantive conclusions are drawn.
Even if the bombings influenced the election, so what? What’s the alternative, taking decisive power from the people and giving it to a less emotional body? If the new government really is the worse choice, eventually the populace will realize it and change things in the next election.
Tuckerfan, I think you’re being too thorough.
Sure, it could require all the planning you have listed, but then again, it’s not necessary.
You need one person in Madrid moving around. This person does all your scouting, checks to see what security is like at the stations, and the like. All he’s got to do is get a bulky backpack and hit the rails. Spend a few weeks riding the trains, getting on and off at various stations.
Does his bag get searched? Does he get any undue attention from the local police? If that does happen, does it happen everywhere, or only at a couple stations?
Your scouting is done.
You’ve got your explosives expert. He makes the bombs and prepares the cell-activated detonators. Then he packs ten backpacks full of explosives and leaves them with the scout. Compartmentalization, you know.
Ten bombers arrive from Casablanca. The scout takes them one at a time from where their backpack is stored (in ten seperate places, preferably) to the local train station. He shows them where to go, what coins to use, when to go there, and where to drop the bag. Then they’re all given bus tickets, train tickets, plane tickets, boat tickets, and such to try to get them out of the country, or at least out of Madrid.
If they’re supposed to drop their bombs at 9:15am, detonate by 9:45am so that they’re clear. If you really care that much about getting them clear.
Now you’ve got 10 men with explosive backpacks that know how to get to their target, and have a (crappy) exit strategy. They’re probably not going to escape anyways, but that’s not important. Any of them that do, obviously are just a bonus.
None of them can point the finger at anybody except for the scout. Ideally, he’d be gone from the country hours before the bombs go off.
I imagine the cell phone bomber would be caught through records and electronic means. Probably no way around that, besides just disappearing and hoping for the best.
There you go. It’s not perfect, but while I’ve done plenty of illegal stuff in my life, “International Terrorist” was never one of them. I’m sure the professionals would have some tweaks to make.
Nowhere near two years of planning. Two years gives your bombers two years to fuck up somehow and draw attention. Use them like cruise missiles - tell them where to go, how to get there, and load them with their payload.
-Joe the Jackal
Plus, the supposition that AQ agents needed to be planted in Spain is nonsensical. AQ is actively recruiting amongst Muslim youths throughout Europe. And there are a LOT of Muslims in Europe. This doesn’t mean that all those Muslims are a threat all of a sudden: Dutch security experts last week estimated that AQ probably recruit half a dozen youths per year in the Netherlands. Given the fact that we have about a million Muslims in this country, that’s not a large number. I’m sure the odds are no different in Spain.
The problem? It only takes a couple of nutjobs for an attack to succeed. And I doubt it’s even all that hard to leave a rigged backpack on a Spanish commuter train, open to all. Ditto, for taking control of a 737.
You can’t combat terrorism if you ignore its roots, I’m afraid.
Tuckerfan, you made me agree with Brutus, at least partially. Surely, that’s a sign on the wall.
I do.
Richard Perle and the Mujahedin e Khalq.
The former head of the Bush Admin’s Defense Policy Advisory Board gave a speech at a fundraiser for a group who’s been on the State Department’s list of terrorist groups earlier this year. The MEK is the international terrorist group whose ties to Saddam Hussein are the most well documented. He officially sponsored them.
Perle claims he didn’t realize that the fundraiser was associated with the MEK.
The Red Cross knew and refused to accept any of the money raised.
But somehow Perle, former didn’t find out until reporters questioned him about it.
It’s the same old choice- incompetence or dishonesty. Is Perle incompetent or is he dishonest?
Plausible deniability surekly should wear out sometime, right? After how many incidences does the plausibility of the denial wear thin?
Perle’s a choice monster. He was caught transferring calssified national security secrets to agents of a foreign government in the seventies. He’s still trusted with access to classified national security information.
Go figure
On the contrary, what I’ve given you is the standard M.O. for terrorist and military operations. Were I to attempt such a thing as a bombing of a large public facility, I’d personally do things a bit differently.
It all depends upon the outcome you’re looking for.
It’d take one person more than a few weeks, and that’s at one target. You’re not going to put all your eggs in one basket. Remember 9/11? There were four targets, only three of them got hit. You have to have redundancy in your planning in case something goes wrong at a particular target. Spain had a made a number of arrests in recent weeks of individuals in possession of large amounts of bomb making materials, so it seems to me that a much larger operation was being planned, but it got pruned down because of the work of Spanish authorities. Whether that pruning was because the terrorists felt they couldn’t risk attacking more than one target or because the Spanish managed to get the operatives who were scheduled to be put in play on that day is another matter. We don’t have the answer to that, but hopefully we will soon.
For target one, under those circumstances. Given that the Spanish had made arrests of folks with explosives, you’re going to want to retest, to see if they’ve upped the security at all targets (this will also let you know if anyone who’s been captured who might know something has ratted you out, if security is higher at all targets, then your operations have been comprimised and its time to change your plans). Additionally, you’ve got to keep abreast of any repair work or construction in the target areas as they can make it difficult to get to and from the target area.
Of course. He also probably packs more backpacks than will be needed or planned to use. You don’t necessarily want him to know how many targets you’ve planned to hit at this time. If he gets captured after the bombs have left his possession, but before they’ve gone off, then the authorities will really shit their pants when he tells them that he’s prepped 50 bombs. Even if the 10 you’ve planned to go off are found, the fact that the government is in a frantic search and telling everyone that 50 bombs are loose, is going to scare the bejeezus out of the population. If you can’t kill 'em, scare 'em.
If you’re importing bombers on short notice, there’s two possibilites: 1.) You don’t want them to live, so they’re not going to know anything other than: they meet your operatives (who have to have been “in country” for some time) at point ‘X’, they’re given their bombs, reminded how they work (they’ll have been trained on using bombs wherever it is you’ve got a training camp, and probably given “missions” in that country so they’ve got a feel for the whole thing), dropped at a place where they won’t arouse suspicision (and you’ll want to make sure that any video cameras in the area can’t provide the authorities information on you, so you’ll either be disguised or drop them someplace where the cameras can’t see you), they’ll then go out, following the instructions and directions you’ve given them and blow themselves up. 2.) They’re professionals whom you don’t want to lose. These guys will study everything you’ve provided them until they know it better than you do, then they’ll go out and inspect the areas for themselves, letting you know of anything that you might have missed. They’ll then perform their mission and exit the country via means unknown to you (in case you’re captured after the mission, you won’t be able to tell the authorities anything at all).
If the bombers aren’t important to the folks running the operation, they’ll go up with the bombs, if they are important to the higher ups, you won’t know how they’re getting out of the country. Sending the scout out of the country is certainly a good idea, but not if he’s your whole operation in the area. Because if he is, then you’ve got no one “in country” able to tell you how the authorities reacted to the operation (and remember, the media won’t cover everything, and they might not cover things which are important for you to know) and if you plan another operation in the area at a later date, you’ll have to start all over again and it might not be so easy the next time to smuggle folks into the country. Better to have several groups operating in the country at all times. This way, if it gets well-nigh impossible to bring anyone into the country, you’re still able to act because you’ll have groups their continuously, actively recruiting new members and providing realtime intel on what the authorities are doing.
Not necessarily. Remember, we’re relying on news accounts for this information, so it may not be entirely accurate. Assuming that it is, then let’s look at what happened. The cell phones were pre-paid. Now, if pre-paid cell phones in Spain work like pre-paid cell phones in the US, then the terrorists could have walked into any store which sold the phones, paid cash, activated the phones (fairly simple proceedure, some of the ones I’ve used didn’t require any personal information, those that did, didn’t bother to check that information, so you could just type in bogus information and get the phones to work in minutes), modified them, and had them ready to go without the authorities being able to track you down, no matter when they found the phones.
News accounts say that the authorities found, at least one phone intact, and used the SIM card to track down the folks responsible. This can only mean a couple of things:
1.) The phone used to make the calls to the phone intended to be the triggering device for the bomb was the landline in one of the operatives home. Now that’s really stupid, don’t you think? Why not use a payphone? Surely Spain has them, and surely you could pick one well the fuck away from any place you regularly go. If Spain doesn’t have payphones, then why not simply use another prepaid cellphone, and have it’s sole call be the one which is supposed to be to the trigger phone at the moment it’s supposed to go off? You can ditch the phone quickly, and there’s nothing to be traced back to you. Even if you make multiple calls to the phone to test the operation (say hooking an LED to the phone instead of a bomb to test it) you can do them all from payphones or a “disposable” prepaid cellphone.
2.) The call made to the trigger phone was made from a cell phone which for some reason could be traced back to the owner. Perhaps it was his personal cell phone or he was so stupid as to provide real information to activate his prepaid cellphone.
3.) At some point in it’s existence, the prepaid cellphone made a call to a landline or cellphone which could be traced to someone in the operation.
I don’t know how Spain handles number assignments to telephones, but in the US it works basically like so: A phone is given a number based on it’s geographical location, now in the case of pre-paid cell phones, if the owner of that phone does not purchase airtime for that phone every 60 days (they don’t have to use it, just buy airtime), then the number is “put on hold” for 6 months, before it is assigned to another phone (this could be either a landline phone or a cellphone). This is no big deal if the phone has never been used to call a traceable number.
However, if that phone has been used to dial a traceable number, then you’re fucked, if you’re a terrorist. Every cellphone has a unique “hardware ID” which can be used by the airtime provider to track down any and all calls which that particular cellphone might have made. Given that all new cellphones sold in the US are required to have GPS capabilities in them, it might be possible to track the physical movement of those phones at any point in time since they were first turned on! (And they’ve been turned on at least once in their existence, at the factory.)
I do not know how long GPS information is stored by airtime providers (I was fired from my job at Sprint PCS before those phones came on-line, so I don’t know), and it may be that the authorities can find this information out, long after it’s been erased from the airtime providers harddrive. IAC, if you’ve got the phone’s hardware, you can at least find out where it’s been and what calls (if any) have been made to or from the phone. Now, the authorities in Spain are saying that they were able to find out who the culprets were thanks to the “SIM card” in the prepaid cellphone. “SIM” stands for “Subscriber Identity Module.”
Depending upon who your airtime provider is, your cellphone may or may not have a SIM card. The primary benefit of a SIM card (it’s a little chip, mounted on a plastic card about 1/2 inch X 1 inch X 1/16 inch) is that if your cellphone (or satellite phone) dies, you simply remove the SIM card, pop it into another phone, and that phone will ring whenever someone calls you, without you having to reprogram the phone. Of course, any phone calls you’ve made using that SIM card can be tracked, no matter if they were in that phone, or another phone. The calls can even be traced if the authorities find just the phone, and no SIM card, because they can pull up the various SIM cards which have been inserted into that phone and been used to make calls.
Of course, many cellphones sold today have timers/alarm clock functions built into them, so why not have the timer set to go off at a certain time (say within 10 minutes after the phone call is supposed to be made to the phone) so that if the phone doesn’t get the call for some reason (say it’s outside of the coverage area), it’ll still trigger the bomb? If you’re not buying phones with those capabilities (and yes, prepaid phones do have them), then you’re a fucking idiot.
Of course, there’s another possibility: That the news accounts of how the authorities were able to track down the individuals involved are wrong. This is totally understandable, of course, the reporters providing the information could be complete idiots and not accurately reporting on what the authorities have told them, or the authorities could be feeding misleading information to the press in order to prevent the terrorists from figuring out how the authorities did it. Given the imperative behind finding the terrorists before they can strike again, I give this last possibility the greatest likelihood of being true.
I’m not even a professional, and I’ve given you plenty of tweaks. I imagine that the professionals could give us both a helluva lot more.
Yeah, two years gives your bombers two years to fuck up. Not the other guys involved in the operation, and they’re the ones who count.
Coldy, there’s been numerous threads on these boards, as you should well know, about how it’d be impossible for someone with no experience to sieze a plane and fly it to a predetermined target. Broomstick has said herself, that she didn’t think it would be possible for someone trained as a pilot, but not trained to fly jets to be able to fly a jet to a target. She’s a pilot, I’m not, I’m going to take her word for it.
As for the accuracy of Dutch intelligence, I’ve no idea. I know that the US was supposed to have the best intelligence agencies in the world, but they were unable to predict the fall of the Soviet Union or to prevent the 9/11 attacks. Perhaps the Dutch could have done better, you tell me.
Simon X, well, as we all know, Iraq has fuck all to do with Al Qaeda, so Richard Perle certainly wasn’t talking to Al Qaeda (Officially anyway, though I’m sure that they had at least one operative there.), and Perle might have been an idiot, or he might have been there because the Bush Administration wanted to “feed” information to the Iraqis. (Given that he’s a US politician, I’ll say that “idiot” is the most likely possibility.) And I’ll admit that my OP wasn’t clear enough to convey my meaning. I was talking about a politician who would, at some point in his/her career, be up for election. Perle is/was a political appointee, not someone who’d have to face an opponent in an election. I’d imagine that even Ralph Nader, Jesse Helms, or Al Gore, at this point, could beat Perle in an election to determine which one of them became dog catcher.
Here’s something else to think about: The folks claiming responsibility for the Madrid attacks said that the preparations for their operation in the US were 90% complete. Assuming that they were being honest in this (and I’m not going to do that), then here’s the time frames that we in the US need to be concerned about: May, which was when Bush declared the end of major hostilities in Iraq; September, for obvious reasons; October through November, again, for obvious reasons. Personally, I intend to take zero precautions during those time periods, and if possible, I’ll travel to areas most likely to be targets of terrorist attacks. Why? Because I have no doubt that the bastards are bullshitting us and there isn’t dick going to be happening in the US on those dates.
Boy, isn’t it fun discussing the best way to kill hundreds of people and not get caught?
Anyways, I’ll probably come back when I want to put some more brainpower into this exercise, but I’d like to leave you with a comment on your last paragraph.
I agree totally. I fly fairly often, and I still have no fear of a terrorist attack. I have a small fear of flying now for the same reason I always have: The aircraft mechanic who is hungover, just split with his wife, and just isn’t focused on his work the day he’s working on my plane.
Terrorists don’t even enter into it…unless it was a terrorist who stole the mechanic’s wife.
-Joe
The people who have been arrested, assuming they’re the guilty parties, could have been resident Moroccans (and Indians) living there for years, in a sleeper cell. They could also have been planning it from the moment Spain entered the war, which is just over a year ago.
Yup, I’m agreeing with Brutus too.
::Goes off to take a shower::
Oh, haven’t found a link for it on CNN, but NPR reported a little while ago that one of the latest arrests in Spain was of the owner of a phone store. The reporter made the statement (and I’m going from memory here, so this won’t be an exact quote) “Leading authorities to believe that Al Qaeda forces have been deeply imbedded in the country for years.”
If the guy who owned the phone store is involved, then he knew more about the phones then I do about US phones. (Apparently he’s owned the store for a number of years.) Which leads me to believe that they didn’t trace the guys down using the call history of the phone, but by tracing back the serial numbers to who sold the phone. (I forgot all about that possibility, which was stupid of me.) A “sleeper cell” doesn’t necessary inhabit the country doing nothing, they’re scouting the place out, looking for targets and simulating operations. You have to have them doing this. Otherwise the agents get “rusty”, bored, quit, or decide to do something really stupid and act on their own.
Someone mention my name?
Just in the interest of clarity, I wanted to address this point.
Jets pose several levels of difficulty, which need to be considered if one were (hypothetically, of course) planning an “operation”.
First, there is the basic skill of flying. That is, how to make the airplane go where you point it. In truth, this isn’t particularly difficult for the average human being. If you can drive a stick shift car, you can pilot a Cessna once it’s up in the air (more on that in a bit). Now, some airplanes are more sensitive than others - some could be difficult to fly straight and level for an amateur, but the passenger-carrying jets are built to be very stable. Seems that the passengers prefer the rides to be as boring as possible. So once it is up in the air, in cruise, it’s not going to take a whole heck of a lot of training to keep it pointed in a desired direction. Certainly, jet training would be desirable, but all indications are that the 9/11 crew only had simulator training, not actual time in jets before the Big Day. Aside from that… they were licensed pilots. In fact, from what I’ve read Mohammed Atta tended to fly Piper Warriors - an airplane model I (and thousands of others) also fly on a frequent basis. It’s not a particularly challenging airplane to fly. It did not take extraordinary training to manuver the jets towards the target. I would also like to point out that, even with professional-level simulator training, the fellow aiming for the second WTC almost missed it, and nearly tore the wings off trying for a last-minute correction. They did not fly these airplanes well, just adequately for their purpose. Could someone such as myself, with no jet/airliner specific training whatsoever do as well they did? Probably not. Could such a pilot fly an airliner well enough to get the “mission” done? Debatable. Maybe. I don’t have a huge amount of native ability in aviation, I have to work for and struggle to earn my merit badges. Someone with more of a knack than I have might be able to pull it off.
Given how easily obtainable simulator training was pre-9/11, though, it would have been silly (from a terrorist viewpoint) not to make the investment.
So… $20k or under could buy you the training and experience to do what they did. Time frame would be a year or two, if you’re a fast learner and had nothing else you had to do and you were in a hurry. They took longer than that, we know that now. And more money than that.
We have no idea how many operatives started flight training and never finished. or how many finished and were in reserve, or on another airplane that didn’t leave the ground that day.
Now, next level of difficulty would be seizing a jet on the ground and taking off. Hmm… I’m not an expert in jets, but I expect that would be much more hazardous without really serious and specific training in the airplane. A lot can go wrong during take-off, and a lot needs to be done in a specific order, in a specific timeframe, in order to do this succesfully. The 9/11 crew apparently decided a mid-flight take-over with boxcutters was easier/preferable than spending more time and money learning to takeoff as well as fly jets in cruise. I don’t think a pilot with my training/experience could successfully launch a Boeoing 7x7.
Greatest difficulty in flying the big jumbos is landing. Someone without training specific to such airplanes is not going to be able to do that - even on a simulator. THAT has been proven, and proven pre-9/11. Once the bad guys took over the airplanes it was inevitable they would crash. They would either crash into their targets, or crash somewhere else.
If anything disrupted straight-and-level flight more than a shallow bank turn or a gentle rise/descent, the Bad Guys probably would have lost control. So far as I can see, they had NO training in how to cope with either unusual attitudes or other emergencies in those airplanes. If, hypothetically, they had been pursued by armed fighters they would not have been able to use evasive manuvers - if they had tried anything fancy they most likely would have lost control. If you lose control of a big jumbo you have very little time to regain control. Even fully trained pilots can find it a handful. You can also lose a LOT of altitude - 10,000 or more feet, even 20,000 feet lost in a minute or two. The Bad Guys weren’t flying that high. Even if they knew how, they just didn’t have the altitude to correct a major mistake.
So - just how thoroughly DID they prepare for this “mission”? Someone had to decide how much training to fund, and when the training/rehearsing was done and it was time for the mission. What sort of decisions go into these plans? Do you a bunch of guys sitting around in a cave in Afganistan eating kebabs while discussing whether or not their operatives half a world away need to learn how take off in a jet, or if just cruise flight is sufficient? Did they argue about budgetary limitations? (“Zacarias, we can only afford $5k for your simulator training - concentrate on cruise flight, not so much the take-off and landing phases. Try not to arouse suspicion.”)
The 9/11 hijackers represented a substantial investment in time and money. I quoted a low-ball figure for necessary training, but AQ could have easily spent $50-100 on each of the pilots when you add up training, housing, travel… Not all invovled had to be pilots, but at least four of them were. That’s close to half a million right there. On disposable agents. Men they knew would not survive their missions.
How much cheaper are guys who leave loaded backpacks on a Madrid commuter train?
Total cost of 3/11 might have been less than the money invested into just one of the 9/11 pilots.
And I don’t think you need years of scouting to blow up commuter trains. You need a train schedule and someone to drop bags on the appointed cars at the appointed time. They’re not looking to disable the train, after all, they’re planning to kill people and all that takes is some explosive and a bag of nails or simillar proto-shrapnel. Heck, would the guys doing the drop even need to know what the bags contained? “Abdul - leave this bag on this car of this train, then leave at the next stop. Another operative will retrieve the bag after you leave the train.”
Naw… the guys doing the drops were expendable. If any escape the dragnet they might receive further training for another mission somewhere else, but if they don’t… eh, it’s not like AQ values human lives. Even the lives of their members.
Broomy (may I call you Broomy?), thanks for the edification (you did mean "$50-$100K, right?) on the piloting issue.
And you’re right that the guys who left the bombs on the Madrid train might not have known anything more than, “Leave the bag there, Akbar. Jeff will pick it up three stops down, it’s very important that he get those MP3’s of Julia Roberts singing You Are My Sunshine.” However, the folks who planned the operation had to have made their selection of targets some time before this. As early as January one of the suspects is alleged to have made comments that the trains were going to be bombed.
If true, this raises the question of what did the authorities do in response to these claims? Reading the full article, it leads one to believe that Amrous spilled the goods to the authorities in January, but was released, then arrested after the bombings occured, and then released again! Why and to what ends, I’ve no idea. I realize that Spanish law requires him to be released if no charges are filled, but given that he certainly appears to have known about the bombings in advance, one would think that there must have been something that Spanish authorities could have charged him with.
We know that Spain was a hotbed of AQ activity in the months leading up to 9/11, so there must have been a large number of operatives in the country prior to 9/11, and while there were numerous arrests of suspected operatives following 9/11, most of those folks were released.
To plead guilty of assumption here, I’d wager that a good percentage of those folks arrested were AQ operatives, and like G. Gordon Liddy, they kept their mouths shut, knowing that they would most likely be released. So that puts them “in country” for at least 3 years prior to the bombing. It’s obvious now that they weren’t sitting idly by, doing nothing.
If I can call you Tuck 
Yes, I did. $50,000-$100,000
Well, sure. Could be the likes of AQ has a number of targets scouted and on the shelf, so to speak - when they decide it’s time to do something they pull a plan out of the box, spiff it up, then implement it.
In which case the main scouting missions might have occured years before, with just a “touch up” scout going in shortly before to note any changes.
Some of those training camps they had were pretty extensive - they might have been able to build mock-ups of some target areas for simulated attacks as well.
Welll… he could be a random crazy who just guessed right. Know how many folks in Chicago have predicted the demise of the Sears Tower or an attack on the subway? If it happens, that doesn’t necessarially make them part of the conspiracy.
Or maybe there’s not enough proof to hold him
Or maybe the authorities are hoping he’ll lead him to more valuable prey.
Suspected is not the same as proven. A LOT of people were picked up on suspicion world-wide. A lot of those folks were innocent - a matter of similar names or appearance.
After all, it’s not good enough to simply do a mass sweep - you have to know you have the guilty parties. If all you’ve got is a bunch of innocents linked to an event by chance, then the Bad Guys are still free to wreck havoc and you’ve accomplished nothing of merit.
I think we should also note that in some cases an operative is actually being disposed of by AQ. Take Robert Reid the Shoe Bomber. What an idiot! This guy doesn’t strike me as being very bright. Maybe AQ wanted rid of him, so they cooked up the shoe-bomb. Hey, if it works, they bring down a plane. If it doesn’t work, he’s arrested and they don’t have to worry about him any more. Win-win if they want to get rid of somebody. Maybe they even filled his head with misinformation prior to the “mission” and hoped he would spill his guts when captured.
Why do I think he’s an idiot? Because he tried to light up his shoes while sitting in his seat. Have you ever tried to reach down by your feet while sitting in coach? Can’t be down - at least not discreetly. Why didn’t the moron go to the lav, where he had some privacy and at least marginally more room to manuver? That might have worked. Of course, I’m not at all upset he was that stupid and incompetant.
Of course you can. Never argue with a lady. 
Agreed. I’d just feel better if I knew what the reasoning was behind it (not that I expect them to tell me, ya know?). It may have been those reasons you cited, or it might have been that Spain wanted to avoid implimenting some of the draconian measures we’ve adopted since 9/11 and went “too far the other way” with their laws. I know next to nothing about the Spanish legal system to say for sure. I’m certain that if it is a case of the Spanish laws needing “tweaking” they’ll take the appropriate action. I just hope more people don’t get killed before that happens.
Very true. I’m sure some folks were picked up simply because they were Arab looking, which is not what we want at all.
Someone brought this up shortly after it happened, it was determined that he pretty much had to be where he was when he tried to set off his shoes. The fuses were some kind of weird fuse that could only be ignited by matches (perhaps they’re hotter than a disposable lighter and I certainly don’t think that he’d have been able to bring a propane torch onboard), and he pulled his “stunt” in Dec. of 2001 or early 2002 so a Middle Eastern man (especially one looking as goofy as he does [I know that’s terrible to say, but as many folks said when his picture appeared on the news, you could just *tell* he was a drooling slackjawed idiot by looking at him.]) running down the aisle of a plane with sparks flying out of his shoes is going to look a wee bit suspicious to say the least.