# Immigration and the 2016 election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 25, 2015, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/immigration-and-the-2016-election/723484 "2015-06-25T23:06:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2015, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/immigration-and-the-2016-election/723484/1 "2015-06-25T23:06:57Z")
How much will immigration stances matter? Lots of candidates have expressed lots of different views of what should happen with immigration. For example, John Kasich (I know he’s not an official candidate yet) spoke up today: > [@](#): > > [Ohio Gov. John Kasich says it’s not practical or humane to deport the millions of immigrants who are in the United States illegally. > > “I’m not for putting them on a school bus, driving them to the border, opening the door and just telling them to get out,” Kasich told reporters. > > The governor was on his first trip to early-voting Iowa as a potential Republican presidential candidate, and tried to draw distinctions with his would-be rivals on immigration and more. He favors fines for those here illegally but said Republicans need to show more compassion toward immigrants and minorities, as well as more sensitivity on the environment.]([Latino | Fox News](http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2015/06/25/mulling-presidential-run-ohio-gov-kasich-says-opposes-deporting-undocumented/)) Four years ago, this might have sunk him. What about now? Are things different, or different enough? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/immigration-and-the-2016-election/723484/2 "2015-06-26T02:29:24Z")
The real issue is whether immigration laws should be enforced, but it’s not something that anyone is going to clearly talk about. The immigration reform bill would still leave millions without legal status, which means that we all agree that we’re going to deport a few million people. The question is whether we’ll deport 11 million or just 4 million. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 11:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/immigration-and-the-2016-election/723484/3 "2015-06-26T11:34:57Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The real issue is whether immigration laws should be enforced, but it’s not something that anyone is going to clearly talk about. The immigration reform bill would still leave millions without legal status, which means that we all agree that we’re going to deport a few million people. The question is whether we’ll deport 11 million or just 4 million. That’s not the question, because we’re not going to do either. Deporting millions of people is not feasible, neither politically nor practically, and it’s not going to happen. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 11:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/immigration-and-the-2016-election/723484/4 "2015-06-26T11:58:31Z")
So the immigration reform bill is actually a sham. Good to know. Someone should make an issue of the lie being foisted on the American public. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 12:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/immigration-and-the-2016-election/723484/5 "2015-06-26T12:00:05Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > So the immigration reform bill is actually a sham. Good to know. Someone should make an issue of the lie being foisted on the American public. No, your analysis is just wrong. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/immigration-and-the-2016-election/723484/6 "2015-06-26T12:14:06Z")
What is going to happen to the undocumented not covered by the amnesty if the immigration reform bill should pass? Answer: deportation. Not all at once, of course, and some will evade the authorities for their entire lives. But we will actually deport millions. We already have. We’re almost up to 2 million under Obama. If 4 million are left uncovered by the amnesty, we will be rid of the bulk of them within 16 years. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/immigration-and-the-2016-election/723484/7 "2015-06-26T12:16:09Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > What is going to happen to the undocumented not covered by the amnesty if the immigration reform bill should pass? > > Answer: deportation. Not all at once, of course, and some will evade the authorities for their entire lives. But we will actually deport millions. We already have. We’re almost up to 2 million under Obama. If 4 million are left uncovered by the amnesty, we will be rid of the bulk of them within 16 years. I disagree – I think any (with no criminal record, etc.) not covered by this immigration bill would be eventually covered by a future bill, were this bill to be passed. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 12:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/immigration-and-the-2016-election/723484/8 "2015-06-26T12:20:22Z")
So we’re going to pass this bill and stop deportations even though the bill not only doesn’t allow for this, it stiffens enforcement? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/immigration-and-the-2016-election/723484/9 "2015-06-26T12:22:11Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > So we’re going to pass this bill and stop deportations even though the bill not only doesn’t allow for this, it stiffens enforcement? Who said we’ll stop deportations? I doubt we’ll ever stop, and I don’t really have a problem with deporting certain undocumented immigrants (criminals, obviously, as well as those who have immigrated very recently and have no special skills). ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/immigration-and-the-2016-election/723484/10 "2015-06-26T12:23:42Z")
Which, is a few million people currently here. And when you say “future bill”, I’m not sure what you’re talking about. We only do these kinds of amnesties once every quarter century or so. Anyone not included in this bill is SOL. Really, though, with this dialogue we’re just highlighting the insanity of the current national debate. As in, there isn’t really a debate. Whether we pass a reform bill or not, we’ll still have an illegal immigration problem and we’ll still be breaking up families and leaving millions terrified of getting discovered and deported. But we can’t just say, “Amnesty everyone”, nor can we say “deport them all”. We can’t even say, “Let’s keep doing what we’re doing”. Yet those are the choices: open borders, mass deportation, or what we do now. The immigration reform bill is basically “what we do now, only hopefully marginally better.” ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/immigration-and-the-2016-election/723484/11 "2015-06-26T12:30:56Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Which, is a few million people currently here. And when you say “future bill”, I’m not sure what you’re talking about. We only do these kinds of amnesties once every quarter century or so. Anyone not included in this bill is SOL. > > Really, though, with this dialogue we’re just highlighting the insanity of the current national debate. As in, there isn’t really a debate. Whether we pass a reform bill or not, we’ll still have an illegal immigration problem and we’ll still be breaking up families and leaving millions terrified of getting discovered and deported. But we can’t just say, “Amnesty everyone”, nor can we say “deport them all”. We can’t even say, “Let’s keep doing what we’re doing”. Yet those are the choices: open borders, mass deportation, or what we do now. The immigration reform bill is basically “what we do now, only hopefully marginally better.” Mass deportation is not one of those options – it’s not physically possible (even if we tried, the optics would be so devastating that they would quickly end the policy). I don’t buy your predictions about future bills. And any insanity of the current national debate is on only one side of the issue. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/immigration-and-the-2016-election/723484/12 "2015-06-26T12:34:46Z")
Why would mass deportation be impossible? We’ve deported almost 2 million under this administration. Maybe we just disagree on what constitutes mass deportation? And if you actually believe that we’re going to amnesty two thirds now and then the other third a short time later, then you’re ignoring what the public expects from an immigration reform bill: better enforcement. If we’re just going to amnesty everyone, that takes a one page bill. If that’s what Democrats actually want, they should have the balls to stand up for it. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 12:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/immigration-and-the-2016-election/723484/13 "2015-06-26T12:49:03Z")
We could use the Romney approach and induce them to _self_-deport. A lot of restaurant dishes will go unwashed and lawns will go unmowed and fruit will go unpicked, but that’s the price of purity of our precious bodily fluids. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/immigration-and-the-2016-election/723484/14 "2015-06-26T12:55:49Z")
What bill are we talking about? there is no bill atm. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/immigration-and-the-2016-election/723484/15 "2015-06-26T12:58:02Z")
The DREAM bill can be reintroduced. Or maybe it’s the Republican bill they’re going to introduce right after their alternative health care bill. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 1:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/immigration-and-the-2016-election/723484/16 "2015-06-26T13:02:38Z")
It won’t matter so much in the general election as Jeb isn’t that radical about immigration compared to say Cruz. It will make Jeb sweat the nomination process a bit as the clown car tries to take him down as being soft on those brown-skinned folks going after our jobs and our women, but in the end you’re going to have two candidates- Jeb and Hillary, who are both on the side of sanity. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/immigration-and-the-2016-election/723484/17 "2015-06-26T13:38:08Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > It won’t matter so much in the general election as Jeb isn’t that radical about immigration compared to say Cruz. It will make Jeb sweat the nomination process a bit as the clown car tries to take him down as being soft on those brown-skinned folks going after our jobs and our women, but in the end you’re going to have two candidates- Jeb and Hillary, who are both on the side of sanity. Jeb still belongs to the party who stopped the bill, and there is the matter of Obamas executive action. I doubt Jeb will go as far as saying he wouldn’t get rid of that. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/immigration-and-the-2016-election/723484/18 "2015-06-26T13:39:02Z")
El Jebe may be mostly immune to that kind of attack, since it means implicitly going after his wife and kids. Conversely, he can afford to be comfortingly hard-line against Clinton, if he plays it right, which is by no means a given. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/immigration-and-the-2016-election/723484/19 "2015-06-26T23:35:00Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > The DREAM bill can be reintroduced. > > Or maybe it’s the Republican bill they’re going to introduce right after their alternative health care bill. The DREAM Act is an amnesty for a minority of immigrants, namely those who have known nothing else but America and wouldn’t even fit in in their technical homeland. The immigration reform bill that Democrats overwhelmingly supported last year amnesties most of them, but still leaves millions subject to deportation. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2015, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/immigration-and-the-2016-election/723484/20 "2015-07-02T17:27:59Z")
The folks at [538](http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trumps-immigration-statements-will-find-a-home-in-his-party/) think that Donald Trump’s immigration comments will reverberate with the Republican electorate. Will other candidates have to react to it? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/immigration-and-the-2016-election/723484.md?page=2)