Not directly, no, but the supplier nations are affected two ways:
Tariffs in the purchasing nation increase the cost of products from the supplier nations, so sales from the supplier nations go down. For instance, if Trump does put a 100% tariff on Canadian cars, that will have a huge impact on the automotive industry in Canada, with knock-on consequences for the Canadian economy, both locally and nationally.
Sellers in the supplier nations may try to cut their costs and prices to keep at least some sales and market share in the purchasing nation. That hurts the economy in the supplier nation.
I don’t know in which thread this should best appear, but …
Trump’s pulling the trigger on 25% tariffs for Mexico and Canada effective 3/4/2025 and bumping up the tariff for China from 10% to 20% on the same date:
Reached for comment, Jeff Bezos reportedly said (no, he didn’t), “But, but, but … I tanked my newspaper for you!”
Also worth noting that he’s announced ‘reciprocal tariffs’ that should take effect on April 2nd:
The plan is to enact tariffs for any country that has tariffs against the US. Our tariffs for imports of each country’s goods will be equal to the tariffs charged on importation of US goods into each country.
Some analysis:
I just watched Trump correct a reporter. The reporter said that tariffs are paid for by the consumer. Trump replied that he ‘thinks’ that tariffs are paid by the country against whom the tariff is imposed.
He’s stupid, but he isn’t that stupid. It’s reckless disregard for the truth, no matter who tells him or how often. IMHO, it’s the same dynamic that underpinned The Big Lie about the 2020 election.
ETA: Apparently, he’s hedging his bet on the retaliatory/reciprocal tariffs (ie, he’s – at the very least – using them as leverage):
At least your customs guy was a bit more intelligent than one I ran into many years ago – a customs guy who didn’t understand the purpose of customs, at least with respect to the purpose of tariffs. I was crossing into the US and for some reason that I can no longer recall I had some new clothing in the car, some still in its original packaging or with the original retail labels and price tags. This caught his attention because it was obviously new, and hence “merchandise” rather than luggage.
I pointed out that the labels all said “Made in USA”. His response was “Well, American-made goods are sold in Canada, too, you know”.
I was sooooooo tempted to ask him what the ever-loving hell he thought the purpose of customs duties was.
Trump and his supporters will usually argue that companies in the countries against whom the tariff is imposed will be forced to lower their prices by the amount of the tariff in order to remain competitive, so they will “pay” the tariff in that sense. But I’m not sure if there’s any evidence that that’s what actually happens. IIRC, with the steel tariffs Trump imposed in his first term what actually happened was that US steel companies raised their prices to be just slightly less than imported steel plus the tariff.
Without me checking, I’m quite sure that’s correct.
I’m a former corporate VP – a few different NYSE-traded companies. A significant amount of time and effort was expended on a very regular basis doing price testing in order to find out how much we could raise our prices without reducing overall profits.
Take any competitive factor out of that equation and the outcome is foretold. Protectionism. Mercantilism.
To the extent that is an actual outcome, it would fail to shift US demand from those countries’ exports to US-based companies – ostensibly another major goal of tariffs.
The only thing it would do at that point is raise revenue via a backhanded tax.
Which, of course, would all be Joe Biden’s fault
Lots on the subject for those interested:
The pain is quite likely to be highly regressive – at least, initially.
Yeah, Trump has made a bunch of conflicting statements about tariffs. At various times he has claimed:
They will force foreign companies to lower their prices.
They will protect US industries by shifting demand to US-made products
They will raise a bunch of revenue for the Treasury.
These can’t all be true simultaneously. If 1 actually does happen, then like you say 2 won’t happen. If 2 happens, then 3 won’t happen because if people stop buying imported products then the Treasury won’t be collecting any tariffs.
How many companies have 25% markups on their products? They’d need at least that just to keep the price constant, at the expense of making zero profit. The only way this works is if they’re making a lot more than 25% profit.
Also, keep in mind, that Trump has also made conflicting statements about the reason for the tariffs on Canada:
It’s because of illegal immigration
It’s because of fentanyl
It’s because trade with Canada is Very Unfair™
None of those have ever been true, but despite Canada making good-faith efforts to improve enforcement on the first two issues, the Orange Peril says he’s going ahead with ruinous tariffs on March 4 anyway, which are likely to crash Canada’s economy.
Nothing this idiot does makes any sense. As I noted in the “compedium of horrors” thread, Trump recently asked what idiot would have signed the terrible Canada-US-Mexico trade agreement. He said he stays up nights reading trade agreements and is appalled at how unfair this thing is. When he signed it in 2020, Trump lauded it as “the greatest trade agreement ever”, because nobody makes deals like Trump. This is what we’re dealing with – senility and extreme dementia combined with a psychopathic level of meanness.
It’s really this one. Whoever signed the current trade agreement (USMCA) into effect made a major mistake. Canada has been ripping us off since it was signed!! Mexico too.
Also, when NAFTA 2 was being negotiated, Canada was excluded from the talks for months because our delegation “negotiated unfairly”. Nobody knows what that’s supposed to mean.
