# In 2016, all states adopt a model exactly like Maine & Nebraska; what happens? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 6, 2012, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-2016-all-states-adopt-a-model-exactly-like-maine-nebraska-what-happens/640023 "2012-11-06T00:19:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-2016-all-states-adopt-a-model-exactly-like-maine-nebraska-what-happens/640023/1 "2012-11-06T00:19:00Z")
EDIT: Errr, I meant 2016. But you can still talk about how it would effect the election tomorrow if it somehow magically happened. If the entire country switched to the model that Maine and Nebraska use, 2 votes for statewide winner and then each congressional district = 1 ev based on popular vote in each district. How does this affect the electoral map? My hunch is that the Democrats would be at a huge disadvantage, because it seems like the deep blue states in presidential races actually have a lot of reliably republican districts, but the deep red states have relatively few safe democratic districts. Not to mention the effect on campaigning. Suddenly there would be swing EV’s all over the country! So, what are all the ramifications to this? ---
**Author:** ![Chessic\_Sense](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7c8e57/32.png) [@Chessic\_Sense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chessic_Sense)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-2016-all-states-adopt-a-model-exactly-like-maine-nebraska-what-happens/640023/2 "2012-11-06T00:21:20Z")
People don’t vote into Congress the same party as into the White House. You can’t just look at a House seat and say “That’s a deep red district.” ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-2016-all-states-adopt-a-model-exactly-like-maine-nebraska-what-happens/640023/3 "2012-11-06T00:44:39Z")
American political campaigning would change in the most monumental fashion. Al of a sudden California wold be more important than Ohio (yes, California has lots of Republican-leaning districts.) The change to the manner in which the campaigns go is almost impossible to guess at, it would be so massive. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-2016-all-states-adopt-a-model-exactly-like-maine-nebraska-what-happens/640023/4 "2012-11-06T01:22:57Z")
I think we’re going to need a bigger bank account. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-2016-all-states-adopt-a-model-exactly-like-maine-nebraska-what-happens/640023/5 "2012-11-06T01:32:29Z")
> [@](#): > > People don’t vote into Congress the same party as into the White House. You can’t just look at a House seat and say “That’s a deep red district.” Sure, but it’s still a pretty good first approximation, and probably the best we’re going to be able to do here. ---
**Author:** ![zoog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/7ea924/32.png) [@zoog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zoog)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-2016-all-states-adopt-a-model-exactly-like-maine-nebraska-what-happens/640023/6 "2012-11-06T03:38:19Z")
If we ever went that direction, we’d pretty much put the presidential election in the hands of the state legislatures who draw the congressional districts and the courts who decide the inevitable lawsuits over them. If you think gerrymandering is train wreck now… ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-2016-all-states-adopt-a-model-exactly-like-maine-nebraska-what-happens/640023/7 "2012-11-06T18:40:09Z")
> [@zoog](#): > > If we ever went that direction, we’d pretty much put the presidential election in the hands of the state legislatures who draw the congressional districts and the courts who decide the inevitable lawsuits over them. If you think gerrymandering is train wreck now… Indeed. That’s probably the biggest problem with such a system. ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-2016-all-states-adopt-a-model-exactly-like-maine-nebraska-what-happens/640023/8 "2012-11-06T18:55:28Z")
> [@Chessic\_Sense](#): > > People don’t vote into Congress the same party as into the White House. You can’t just look at a House seat and say “That’s a deep red district.” Especially in reliably Democratic Maine where we’ve elected Republican senators for the last decade or so. - Interesting tidbit I just tripped across: one of Maine’s first senators was John Holmes. Aw, yeah, baby. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-2016-all-states-adopt-a-model-exactly-like-maine-nebraska-what-happens/640023/9 "2012-11-06T18:58:07Z")
Important member of congress, was he? ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-2016-all-states-adopt-a-model-exactly-like-maine-nebraska-what-happens/640023/10 "2012-11-06T19:05:28Z")
Just so you know ahead a time, I’m deeply ashamed by what I’m about to write. Well, he carried the popular vote with the local Chinese community quite easily. I’m sorry … I can’t finish it. ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2013, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-2016-all-states-adopt-a-model-exactly-like-maine-nebraska-what-happens/640023/11 "2013-01-23T23:03:26Z")
[he never lost an election … get it?] ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2013, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-2016-all-states-adopt-a-model-exactly-like-maine-nebraska-what-happens/640023/12 "2013-01-23T23:14:02Z")
He was disoriented? ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2013, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-2016-all-states-adopt-a-model-exactly-like-maine-nebraska-what-happens/640023/13 "2013-01-24T00:07:03Z")
Assuming the system had been that way in 2012 and nothing else would have changed, Romney would be president now, as the 234 House seats won by the GOP plus the 24 states where he won a majority of the vote would have given him 282 electoral votes The real difference you’d see in such a system? Instead of the campaigns pumping all their money into “swing states”, you’d see them campaigning in “swing districts” instead - OH-3 one day, off to KY-2 the next, off to FL-17 the morning after that, and so on. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2013, 7:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-2016-all-states-adopt-a-model-exactly-like-maine-nebraska-what-happens/640023/14 "2013-01-24T07:28:20Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Sure, but it’s still a pretty good first approximation, and probably the best we’re going to be able to do here. Do we really not have district-by-district breakdowns? That seems like the sort of things statisticians would want to have to help predict shifts. State by state does not seem granular enough. I’m not sure this is the best approximation, either. I personally would take the congressional winners and average that with the using the popular vote for each state multiplied by their number of electoral votes. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2013, 7:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-2016-all-states-adopt-a-model-exactly-like-maine-nebraska-what-happens/640023/15 "2013-01-24T07:44:18Z")
Obama would still have won in 2012 with the gerrymander laws if every state had it (albeit 270 to 268), go to post 1225: [http://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=228375&page=62](http://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=228375&page=62) ---
**Author:** ![Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ambrosio_Spinola)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2013, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-2016-all-states-adopt-a-model-exactly-like-maine-nebraska-what-happens/640023/16 "2013-01-24T16:51:25Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Obama would still have won in 2012 with the gerrymander laws if every state had it (albeit 270 to 268), go to post 1225: [http://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=228375&page=62](http://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=228375&page=62) The plan currently being discussed in Virginia would award the state’s extra two electoral votes to whichever candidate wins the most congressional districts, rather than the overall winner of the statewide vote. I realize that’s not “exactly like Maine and Nebraska”, but it could have flipped the election. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2013, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-2016-all-states-adopt-a-model-exactly-like-maine-nebraska-what-happens/640023/17 "2013-01-24T16:55:17Z")
What I don’t understand is why the 2 “extra” EVs are winner take all. It seems to me in a situation where somone wins 48%-47% that the two votes should be split. Perhaps make it a 40% or 45% cutoff to win an at-large EV. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2013, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-2016-all-states-adopt-a-model-exactly-like-maine-nebraska-what-happens/640023/18 "2013-01-24T17:01:40Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > Important member of congress, was he? Well, a prominent member, anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2013, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-2016-all-states-adopt-a-model-exactly-like-maine-nebraska-what-happens/640023/19 "2013-01-24T17:33:19Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > What I don’t understand is why the 2 “extra” EVs are winner take all. It seems to me in a situation where somone wins 48%-47% that the two votes should be split. Perhaps make it a 40% or 45% cutoff to win an at-large EV. The two extras are for the Senators, chosen in a state-wide vote. It makes sense to treat those two as a state-wide election. Certainly a state could apportion them however it chose. I wouldn’t be surprised if other states, should they change from the current “winner take all” model, change the way those two are assigned as well. ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2013, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-2016-all-states-adopt-a-model-exactly-like-maine-nebraska-what-happens/640023/20 "2013-01-24T21:28:29Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > Important member of congress, was he? He was highly respected for his long service, deep knowledge of the issues, and occasional spurts of brilliance. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-2016-all-states-adopt-a-model-exactly-like-maine-nebraska-what-happens/640023.md?page=2)