In (Gridiron) Football Scores, Do All Final Digits Occur Randomly?

The Game Room
41

Really the only way you could figure it out is just an analysis of actual last digit distributions. One point scores are also possible in the NFL, of course, but it never happens. The thing is, though, that scoring patterns in either the NFL or CFL (or college football, or whatever) aren’t just based on the rules, but on overall offensive levels, trends in play calling, the capabilities of the specific teams at play, and even the weather on game day; some types of poor weather tend to reduce scoring, which will change last digit likelihood.

There are, for instance, a number of football games known in football legend as The Mud Bowl; the 38th Grey Cup, the 1983 NFC Championship, and a few others. ALL were low scoring. Low scoring games make it likelier to have scores that end in 3s, 7s, and zeroes.

42

Although as someone said upthread, those are just final scores. We’d need to look at all 56 games and the quarters’ scores in each.

And I’m not quite ready to do that.

43

Do you think the distribution of last score digits is different across Super Bowls as opposed to regular-season games? If we want to predict the odds of winning squares for the upcoming Super Bowl, what set of previous games should we analyze?

44

Playoffs would probably be the way to go. All playoff games.

Regular season results could be skewed by crappy teams. Very slightly if at all, but still.

45

Agree with @EllisDee .

46

Looks like I have Eagles 0, Chiefs 4. A 20-14 game doesn’t sound too implausible.

Neither does a 10-14 game, but I’d rather the Eagles win.

47

I would think that a 30-24 game is also a distinct possibility. The over/under is right now at 51.

48

Ugh, I got 2-2 in my niece’s grid. That seems unlikely.

49

Well if you win, buy a lotto ticket!

Out of 10 squares I drew a 2 in 4 of them:

Phi-1 KC-2
Phi-2 KC-5
Phi-6 KC-2
Phi-2 KC-8

50

Hmm, eight scores per game for 51 games to enter into Excel. I’ve built bigger databases. And yes, expanding the data to playoff games would give more indicative results.

But I suspect this work has already been done by someone. We are a nation chock full of crazy people.

51

I have two squares that I purchased from a bar. I imagine the numbers won’t be assigned until a couple of hours before kickoff.

52

Crap, I miscounted. This is Superb Owl number 57.

53

30-24 might be in the ballpark of the right number of points, but those are both harder scores to actually realize.

54

True.

14-10 has occurred in the NFL 88 times.

20-14, 96 times.

30-24, 60 times.