# "In Iraq, Things Really Aren't That Bad" - I told you so! **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [June 14, 2003, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-iraq-things-really-arent-that-bad-i-told-you-so/181793 "2003-06-14T13:10:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Weirddave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/919ad9/32.png) [@Weirddave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Weirddave)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2003, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-iraq-things-really-arent-that-bad-i-told-you-so/181793/81 "2003-06-15T22:22:34Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Eva Luna \* > \*\*Doesn’t it matter to you **at all** if the sources on which the calm person relies are opinion pieces based on third-hand information, and compiled by someone who as never set foot in the region, and who has an obvious political agenda? \ > > Or perhaps the mere fact of expert opinions being quoted by some conservative blog makes them somehow superior information sources, and the very same ideas are magically converted from “hearsay” into Shining Golden Objective Unquestionable Truth, by virtue of having appeared in print somewhere. Somehow the same “hearsay” doesn’t seem to give you pause when it’s been spun by a hawk with no regional or historical perspective. \*\* Do you even read what someone says before replying? > [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Weirddave \* > December, your arguements are frequently based on the most unlikely and unreliable of sources and you willfully allow your politics to blind you to the obvious > \ > frequently the conclusion I reach after thinking is that you’re wrong > [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Eva Luna \* > > Or is it somehow inferior to rely on “hearsay” which actually consists of firsthand experience and personal conversations with people who have spent their careers dealing directly with the region, and transmitted by someone who has spent his career dealing with the region and therefore knows how to choose sources based on their relative objectivity and filter out the crap? Cite? Now, I have no reason to believe Collunsbury is not exactly what he says he is, but as a point of fact, him saying “I spoke to a business associate who had just returned from Iraq and he said XXX” is complete and total hearsay. For all I know “Collunsbury” cold be a 22 year old girl from Idaho who is majoring in Mid-East studies at Boise State. As a further point of fact, he’s a _less_ reliable source than people in the news media because he has no context. An article in the _National Review_ is usually pretty straightforeward with it’s bias, Colls likes to kick and scream that he’s “telling the unvarnished truth because I’m living in the ME”. Bully for Colls, but all he’s doing is giving his opinion backed up with personal anecdotes. Sure, he backs up a lot of what he says with cites, I sincerely admire him for that, but I don’t give him any special “If he says it it must be true” status. His opinion is just that: An opinion, no different than december’s. ---
**Author:** ![wring](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/838e76/32.png) [@wring](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wring)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2003, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-iraq-things-really-arent-that-bad-i-told-you-so/181793/82 "2003-06-15T22:33:03Z")
I disagree that all opinions should be given the same weight. If I see some one vomit forth an opinion taken word for word from some piece of crap email glurge, I’m not going to hold that persons opinion in the same regard that I would, say, another person who, when offering up their opinion offer up as well, reputable cites with data that backs up the validity of their opinion. ---
**Author:** ![Weirddave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/919ad9/32.png) [@Weirddave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Weirddave)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2003, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-iraq-things-really-arent-that-bad-i-told-you-so/181793/83 "2003-06-16T00:01:00Z")
I agree wring, but Collunsbury tends not to offer opinions, he makes “grave pronouncements of truth” which are in fact just opinions with delusions of grandeur. With december, at least we can see which op-ed piece is influencing his thinking because he usually posts them. ---
**Author:** ![wring](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/838e76/32.png) [@wring](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wring)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2003, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-iraq-things-really-arent-that-bad-i-told-you-so/181793/84 "2003-06-16T00:03:25Z")
are you not noting the cites that he also posts to support his evaluation of the situation? ---
**Author:** ![december](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/838e76/32.png) [@december](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/december)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2003, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-iraq-things-really-arent-that-bad-i-told-you-so/181793/85 "2003-06-16T00:09:45Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by wring \* > \*\*If I see some one vomit forth an opinion taken word for word from some piece of crap email glurge… \*\* This thread was based on a column from the _New York Times_. I have have criticized the\* Times \*on these boards, **wring** , but never as harshly as you just did. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![wring](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/838e76/32.png) [@wring](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wring)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2003, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-iraq-things-really-arent-that-bad-i-told-you-so/181793/86 "2003-06-16T00:18:08Z")
I didn’t name you, **december**. My statement was that I would tend to discredit those who seemed to base their opinions on incredible sources. You assumed I was talking about you? Is that an admission? ---
**Author:** ![december](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/838e76/32.png) [@december](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/december)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2003, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-iraq-things-really-arent-that-bad-i-told-you-so/181793/87 "2003-06-16T00:19:52Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by wring \* > \*\*I didn’t name you, **december**. > > My statement was that I would tend to discredit those who seemed to base their opinions on incredible sources. You assumed I was talking about you? Is that an admission? \*\* You got me, **wring**. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![Weirddave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/919ad9/32.png) [@Weirddave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Weirddave)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2003, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-iraq-things-really-arent-that-bad-i-told-you-so/181793/88 "2003-06-16T00:20:25Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by wring \* > \*\*are you not noting the cites that he also posts to support his evaluation of the situation? \*\* I did say… > [@](#): > > he backs up a lot of what he says with cites, I sincerely admire him for that, but I don’t give him any special “If he says it it must be true” status. His opinion is just that: An opinion, no different than december’s. 6 posts up. ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2003, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-iraq-things-really-arent-that-bad-i-told-you-so/181793/89 "2003-06-16T00:27:26Z")
**december** said > [@](#): > > This thread was based on a column from the New York Times. I have have criticized the Times on these boards, wring, but never as harshly as you just did **wring** did not, in any way, just criticize the NY Times. What I read in the post was a generic statement that criticizes anyone who posts things that are not backed up by facts. The second part of the post was suggesting that a post, backed up by facts, was more valuable. And, please, please, **december** –quit using the NY Times as vetting your opinions when you choose, and castigating them when they don’t concur with the far-right wing lunacy that passes for truth in some columns today. You can’t have it both ways. Please try to talk about the person who wrote the OP-ED piece, rather than tout the newspaper in which it appeared. You only leave yourself open to even more derision. If that can be possible. ---
**Author:** ![wring](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/838e76/32.png) [@wring](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wring)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2003, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-iraq-things-really-arent-that-bad-i-told-you-so/181793/90 "2003-06-16T00:35:33Z")
which brings us full circle **dave** , hence my confusion at your position. You stated, and I disagreed, that we should treat all folks’ opinions the same, and I suggesteted that if one was able to back theirs up w/cites etc, we could tend to lend more weight to theirs, vs. the glurg quoting person and you seemed to agree. then repeated your comments about **Col** , which seems to disagree with that. So, I’m still unclear about your point. To name names, which I didn’t before, at this point in this thread, **december** linked to an opinion column, vs. **COl’s** linking to severeal news stories, in addition to his personal observations from the area. So, even discounting the personal observations, we’re left with op/ed piece vs. several news stories. (and even though I disgree w/you damn near all the time, etc, I must acknowledge the graciousness of that last post **december** even if I didn’t put a smiley in mine) ---
**Author:** ![Eva\_Luna](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e495f1/32.png) [@Eva\_Luna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eva_Luna)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2003, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-iraq-things-really-arent-that-bad-i-told-you-so/181793/91 "2003-06-16T01:04:12Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Weirddave \* > **Do you even read what someone says before replying?** In a word, yes. > [@](#): > > Now, I have no reason to believe Collunsbury is not exactly what he says he is, but as a point of fact, him saying “I spoke to a business associate who had just returned from Iraq and he said XXX” is complete and total hearsay. For all I know “Collunsbury” cold be a 22 year old girl from Idaho who is majoring in Mid-East studies at Boise State. Yes, pretty much everyone on this board could be a big fat liar; I accept that. However, I judge people in part based on their track record in making predictions, as well as how well they fit information into a sensible context and point out/filter out its biases openly. I think \*\*Collounsbury’s \*\* track record in that department speaks for itself. And if he’s actually a 22-year-old college student in Idaho, he/she has a bright future in political analysis. In the meantime, I have no reason to disbelieve him. > [@](#): > > As a further point of fact, he’s a _less_ reliable source than people in the news media because he has no context. An article in the _National Review_ is usually pretty straightforeward with it’s bias, Colls likes to kick and scream that he’s “telling the unvarnished truth because I’m living in the ME”. Bully for Colls, but all he’s doing is giving his opinion backed up with personal anecdotes. Sure, he backs up a lot of what he says with cites, I sincerely admire him for that, but I don’t give him any special “If he says it it must be true” status. His opinion is just that: An opinion, no different than december’s. \*\* Just an opinion: true. No different than **december’s** : false. **december** would be the first to say that he has no particular expertise in M.E. affairs beyond that which any literate person could gain by following current events. My main point was that personal anecdotes do not gain any additional magical powers merely by being put into print somewhere. Provided you accept that **Collounsbury** is not a liar, then the sources whose personal anecdotes he cites are frequently of the type/nature that are just as likely to be cited by mainstream news sources. Bonus: the info they provide him isn’t filtered down to a 6th-grade reading level. ---
**Author:** ![december](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/838e76/32.png) [@december](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/december)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2003, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-iraq-things-really-arent-that-bad-i-told-you-so/181793/92 "2003-06-16T01:56:54Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Eva Luna \* > No different than **december’s** : false. **december** would be the first to say that he has no particular expertise in M.E. affairs beyond that which any literate person could gain by following current events. Right. There’s no doubt that **Collounsbury** knows far more about the Middle East thian I do. I certainly appreciate having him on the board. Also, it may not be obvious from the tone of some of these posts. **Collounsbury** and my cites don’t disagree, at least not very much. My cites listed a bunch of ways in which conditions in Iraq were better than had been reported. **Collounsbury** mentioned a bunch mostly _other_ ways in which conditions were still bad or, at least, problematic. The same comment applies to **Istara** , who also surely knows far more than I do about the Middle East. ---
**Author:** ![leander](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/bcef8e/32.png) [@leander](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/leander)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2003, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-iraq-things-really-arent-that-bad-i-told-you-so/181793/93 "2003-06-16T02:07:44Z")
So what’s the fucking point of this thread then, **december**? Simply to say “I told you so”? Are you so incredibly needy and attention-seeking that you have to run around blowing nonsense up people’s asses to try to get a reaction? Get a fucking hobby, fer-Christsakes… Hey, did you successfully predict that the loss of life in the World Trade Centers was less than initially reported? Well good for you. How about those Columbine shootings? You’re taking (what is to many people) a tragic situation and using it to (a) further your own agenda, and (b) gleefully shout “I told you so.” Congrats - you’re hitting a new low. ---
**Author:** ![Desmostylus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c57346/32.png) [@Desmostylus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Desmostylus)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2003, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-iraq-things-really-arent-that-bad-i-told-you-so/181793/94 "2003-06-16T02:45:31Z")
I stand [corrected.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1261062#post1261062) > [@](#): > > _Originally posted by december_ > **In response to the survey, I’m a Jewish atheist. Easter makes no more sense to my intellect than any religious practice. On the other hand, I acknowledge that Easter and other relgious holidays and ceremonies benefit many people in psychological ways. E.g., despite non-belief, even I was quite moved at the circumcision ceremony for my first grandchild six weeks ago.** ---
**Author:** ![milroyj](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a88e57/32.png) [@milroyj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/milroyj)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2003, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-iraq-things-really-arent-that-bad-i-told-you-so/181793/95 "2003-06-16T03:54:44Z")
**Collounsbury** , why don’t you go bump your own thread in GD (you know, the thread that no one posted to in over a month) just to hear yourself pontificate? Wait, you already did. Never mind, carry on, old chap. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![minty\_green](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f6c823/32.png) [@minty\_green](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/minty_green)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2003, 4:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-iraq-things-really-arent-that-bad-i-told-you-so/181793/96 "2003-06-16T04:48:17Z")
Fuck right the fuck off, milly. I’ve gotten better information in that thread than any half-witted blogspotting threadspammer could ever possibly contribute to these discussions. Collounsbury added extraordinarily informative information to a GD thread that was already more than a page long. And guess what? A half dozen posters quickly thanked him for the update and asked further questions regarding the situation on the ground. Try not to be such a gigantic pussy and engage the issues on their merits. Just for a change. ---
**Author:** ![TVeblen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/4bbf92/32.png) [@TVeblen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TVeblen)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2003, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-iraq-things-really-arent-that-bad-i-told-you-so/181793/97 "2003-06-16T04:59:37Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Eva Luna \* > \*\* > My main point was that personal anecdotes do not gain any additional magical powers merely by being put into print somewhere. Provided you accept that **Collounsbury** is not a liar, then the sources whose personal anecdotes he cites are frequently of the type/nature that are just as likely to be cited by mainstream news sources. Bonus: the info they provide him isn’t filtered down to a 6th-grade reading level. \*\* Bingo and brava. I don’t “know” _anyone’s_ real life credentials here. For example, I don’t “know” that **AirmanDoors, Bluesman** etc. are actually in the U.S. military. I don’t “know” that **QtM** or **DrJ** are actually medical doctors either. Extrapolate at will. But internal coherence is damned hard to pull off over the long haul. Some poseurs have tried but none have lasted long. Credibility is earned but frankly I take everything written here with many grains of salt. Any info, no matter how honestly offered, is still filtered through personal lenses. With that caveat, some info is more credible than others. I don’t care a whoop in hell whether it’s acerbic or downright scathing in delivery. (It’d take a lot to out-do the excesses of talk radio.) I _do_ care, very much, how credibly opionons are backed up. I’m sick to death of blogs and media-for-bucks blather. Approach it however you like, folks, but this really doesn’t reduce down to a **Collounsbury** vs. **december** pay-per-view cage brawl. Anybody with half a functioning brain is daunted by grim reality. Shit happens: deal. That’s no excuse for turning off the half of your brain that’s still working. Clever and committed amount to…zilch. Back it up, fairly and dispassionately, or get out of the game. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc348/32.png) [@The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Flying_Dutchman)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2003, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-iraq-things-really-arent-that-bad-i-told-you-so/181793/98 "2003-06-16T04:59:41Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Desmostylus \* > \*\*I stand [corrected.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1261062#post1261062) \*\* What? That’s it. Does that now make you “one one the less intellectually blessed people on this board” ? Were you not being “_absolutely fucking bizarre_” Perhaps you should slink away to lurkdom for awhile and learn to get your facts right before you start spouting off. You looked like a complete jackass. ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/original/2X/e/e489c3b7d8fce19c4b355dd4fc3f88cc39c34b87.png) [@system](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2003, 7:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-iraq-things-really-arent-that-bad-i-told-you-so/181793/99 "2003-06-16T07:18:00Z")
Awww, does widdle Milly want some attention now? Did he go poop in his depends? > [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by milroyj \* > \*\ ***Collounsbury** , why don’t you go bump your own thread in GD (you know, the thread that no one posted to in over a month) just to hear yourself pontificate? > > Wait, you already did. Never mind, carry on, old chap. :rolleyes: \*\* ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/original/2X/e/e489c3b7d8fce19c4b355dd4fc3f88cc39c34b87.png) [@system](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2003, 7:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-iraq-things-really-arent-that-bad-i-told-you-so/181793/100 "2003-06-16T07:25:02Z")
Listen you stupid drooling idiot, there is no fucking admission you were right, nor Steyn because you’re both wrong no matter your crab like scuttling to redefine your argument. > [@](#): > > • There’s no dysentery or cholera, Well, there is cholera reported, so bingo, one down. Of course how the fuck a _journalist_ driving through the country can come to an opinion on the extent and prevalence of **cholera** , a diahreal disease, I am hard pressed to imagine. Never mind he did not travel through the areas where it is reported to be an issue. The extent of the cholera risk at present is impossible to tell because the health information system has broken down. > [@](#): > > • no sign of a human catastrophe, Well, I guess given the word catastrophe and the assertion are undefined it’s hard to argue this one way or the other. > [@](#): > > ``` > * the medical centres are empty and medical supplies are adequate > > ``` An assertion that I have refuted. As a point of fact, the evidence in news reports and UN assessments indicate there were severe shortages which have only partly been eased by the very humanitarian organization you and Steyn are pissing on like fucking morons. > [@](#): > > • the countryside (outside Baghdad) is charming. Irrelevant of course. Lot’s of things are charming, the deep desert is charming. It also is deadly. > [@](#): > > • The refugees are primarily Palestinian. “In other words, this isn’t a human crisis but Arab politics - the longstanding refusal by Middle Eastern regimes to accord Palestinian residents any kind of legal status.” And the Zionist Conserv-Porn assertion of the day. In other words, you both can shove your Likoudist agitprop up your asses, or provide some documentation on the issue. By the way, idiot boy, documentation means documentation, not fucking blogs. > [@](#): > > • Despite the supposed “anarchy”, no one’s fleeing. Supposed anarchy eh? The statement is neither here nor there. We have the syllogism if Anarchy then Refugees. Well, that’s simply not a logical argument. There are many reasons why people are not fleeing, including lack of means and resources, fear of losing all and hope things will in the end work out. That does not refute the **documented** problems noted. > [@](#): > > • In the western towns, which were relatively unscathed by the war, the Ba’athist buildings are the sole target of highly focused looting. Everything else is untouched Assertion which does not match the damage assessments from CPA and UN, of course, I don’t know how our fucking assholes are judging “Baath” affiliation. Certainly of course there are minor towns and the like where the damage has been inconsequential, however the balance and the import is where the main centers of activity, although your lying and disingenuous refocusing on some minor towns versus main centers of activity is par for the course. > [@](#): > > • There’s plenty of food and water. Again refuted. > [@](#): > > Collounsbury admitted that “the worst case scenarios did not come to pass.” In other words, he admitted that Steyn was right. No, you lying piece of shit, one does not equal the other. Worst case scenarios prepared for pre-war – preparations for which helped avert them – are not “exaggerations” you moronic piece of worthless lying garbage, they are scenarios. Actual reporting seems to match CPA reporting on conditions quite well, that is, the media’s portrayal of the situation in Iraq is and has been actually close to if not perfectly identical to CPA and UN non-political assessments. I may add the following from our lying sack of shit’s original OP > [@](#): > > • Western reporters who insist that America is “losing the peace”. > • The Red Cross and Oxfam, who are trying to find a problem to fix > • The World Food Program, who is being asked to distribute free food, which is unnecessary and which will hurt local shop-keepers Rather makes clear that his point was not about pre-war planning, no our lying piece of hypocritical garbage was trying to pimp the journo piece of shit’s distortions that all is fine in Iraq, that things are just going swimmingly. The lying scumbag upon which December hung his contention that Iraq is just fine made a great deal of hay in the article about **current** conditions, that he had not needed to pull his gun, that he did not fucking “see” cholera, and apparently although having undertaken a thousand KM trip in but two weeks or so, was able to do inventories of the medical establishment refuting UN and CPA estimations which I have quoted in part above. In brief then, unlike my interlocutors, who whinge on, pissing in their fucking diapers and posture about ‘language,’ I’ve provided substance – even discount at your own ignorance my personal reporting – on the current situation in Iraq (see also of course the GD for further views). The data rather go to show that december’s contention that conditions are not bad in Iraq, that the security situation is not serious and even deteriorating, that the news media have exaggerated the problems in Iraq is entirely bankrupt. Of course our whinging liar then has tried to move the goal posts. I believe Gary Kumquat had this as one of his five pillars of decembrism. ( I note typically December did not respond to the substance or to my challenging his claims on reporting but chose mischaracterization ) Now, fellow traveling morons are pissing their little diapers that I’ve been a bit harsh here. Well, dumbfucks, there’s a GD thread on Iraq Reconstruction which touches on many of the same issues, if you think you can argue with me, come right on over and I shall to illustrate your idiocy w/o this small compensation to myself for my time and effort, in fully expressing my contempt for you. Otherwise, until someone starts producing something some real data, fuck the hell of you whinging little worms. 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