# In Soviet Russia, Mafia plays you! (Forbidden Thread for Glasnost Mafia -- No Players!) **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [February 22, 2011, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-soviet-russia-mafia-plays-you-forbidden-thread-for-glasnost-mafia-no-players/572259 "2011-02-22T18:33:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 45
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2011, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-soviet-russia-mafia-plays-you-forbidden-thread-for-glasnost-mafia-no-players/572259/45 "2011-02-28T16:18:19Z")
**Tom** , I ran the numbers and it looks like you’re right. The “half-life” of the all-kill lynch is about 5 Days (it has about even odds of occurring in any 5-Day interval). Scum need 17 players dead. If only scum and bomber are killing, that’ll take 9 Days, which is almost 2 lotto half-lives. That’s just over 1/4 chance to win for scum. Not fair. > [@Glasnost Mafia](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/650): > > Frankly, the fact the Pleonast turned up scum is largely coincidence. I suppose I could retroactively look back and see clearer signs (e.g., Pleonast never addressed the statistic that showed he was a good lynch candidate based on his Vanilla Claim) but even that is iffy. Being wrong and annoying about being wrong isn’t a scum tell in my opinion. Good catch **sach** , me not addressing that statistic probably was a scum tell. Unconfirmed vanilla town are always preferable lynch candidates unless there is strong indications that another player is scum. It’s especially true in this game. I probably would have talked about the point if I weren’t scum. Actually, that gives me an idea for a general town strategy. Each Day, one vanilla town truthfully claims such, and is lynched. Town avoids exposing power roles. It’s then a race of building the confirmed pool versus scum finding the power roles. Who wins will depend on the powers in the game, and a little bit of luck. The town should not be able to guarantee a win with this tactic if the game is balanced. --- _[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-soviet-russia-mafia-plays-you-forbidden-thread-for-glasnost-mafia-no-players/572259)._