# In the event of a contested convention, who do you think will be the Republican nominee for POTUS? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 5, 2016, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-event-of-a-contested-convention-who-do-you-think-will-be-the-republican-nominee-for-potus/751256 "2016-04-05T14:58:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-event-of-a-contested-convention-who-do-you-think-will-be-the-republican-nominee-for-potus/751256/41 "2016-04-06T15:08:08Z")
Yeah, but if you know you’ll lose with Trump or Cruz, go with the guy who you know will beat Clinton if the party is mostly united and hope that they stay mostly united after a month of grumbling or so. But I voted for Ryan because a) the prediction markets have had his stock skyrocketing lately and b) he seems to be the guy lately that the party can agree on. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-event-of-a-contested-convention-who-do-you-think-will-be-the-republican-nominee-for-potus/751256/42 "2016-04-06T15:42:04Z")
A contested convention will be highly unpredictable but I am inclined to go with Cruz: a) I think Trump and Cruz together will have enough clout to set the rules so it’s one of them. b)Between Cruz and Trump,the establishment will hold its nose and support Cruz. c)When it comes to the inside battle for delegates, Cruz will be much better organized and energetic than Trump. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-event-of-a-contested-convention-who-do-you-think-will-be-the-republican-nominee-for-potus/751256/43 "2016-04-06T16:13:00Z")
I still think Trump. If he’s within spitting distance of the magic number then they might as well give it to him, if they don’t then the Trumpians will just sit on their hands on election day. Republicans had best plan for 2020. If it had to be an outsider, why not Romney? He’s already got the logo and the signs. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-event-of-a-contested-convention-who-do-you-think-will-be-the-republican-nominee-for-potus/751256/44 "2016-04-06T16:57:39Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > **Fenris** , those statement aren’t stupid, inarticulate, or gaffes. Biden’s gaffes are legendary, in the same sense that Bigfoot is. Biden is also something that neither Trump nor Cruz will ever be: well-liked in Congress. ---
**Author:** ![Folacin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folacin/32/3195_2.png) [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-event-of-a-contested-convention-who-do-you-think-will-be-the-republican-nominee-for-potus/751256/45 "2016-04-06T18:49:01Z")
> [@DerekMichaels00](#): > > Also, its not like Kasich was a close runner up; he’s a distant third and will continue to be. Actually, he’s a distant \*fourth \*- Rubio still has more pledged delegates (and has won an equal number of states), and I don’t believe he has released them. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-event-of-a-contested-convention-who-do-you-think-will-be-the-republican-nominee-for-potus/751256/46 "2016-04-06T21:05:03Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I still think Trump. If he’s within spitting distance of the magic number then they might as well give it to him, if they don’t then the Trumpians will just sit on their hands on election day. Republicans had best plan for 2020. My take is that the republicans are looking at it in possibly one or two ways: 1. They have probably already braced themselves for the fact that they may lose this race before the general even starts. They’re willing to lose the presidency if they can hang on to the congress. In fact it might even work to their advantage to let a democrat hang on and suffer a cyclical recession or some other calamity and take the blame. People will always blame the president for anything bad out of ignorance. But at any rate, they’ll be content to back Cruz and let Trump voters tank the party’s chances at getting the Oval Office. The GOP’s now more in defensive mode than in offense. 2. The other possibility is that Trump collapses so hard, so fast that he becomes a lot less politically significant. I think it’s beyond clear at this point that he will not get to 1237 delegates and will need to rely on some party help to win. But if he somehow loses New York and Pennsylvania, and then goes on a long losing streak, then his case would be much weaker. I thought a few weeks ago that his violent rallies would be the beginning of the end, and he’s had two disastrous weeks since. I predicted he’d get crushed in the Wisconsin primary for this reason. I think Trump probably barely, just barely, hangs on to New York, but I think Cruz could make the race a lot more competitive than it ought to be. And I think Cruz will stun Trump in one or more of the other Northeastern states. Cruz will take California and Oregon. And that’s assuming Trump doesn’t look even worse between now and then. > [@BobLibDem](#): > > If it had to be an outsider, why not Romney? He’s already got the logo and the signs. No way it’s Romney. You’d have a revolt of both Trump and Cruz voters. The GOP will let Trump voters walk, but they won’t let the Cruz voters walk. That would be disaster. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-event-of-a-contested-convention-who-do-you-think-will-be-the-republican-nominee-for-potus/751256/47 "2016-04-06T21:11:27Z")
> [@Folacin](#): > > Rubio still has more pledged delegates (and has won an equal number of states), and I don’t believe he has released them. Even in the states where it’s up to the party and not the candidate, he’s asked for his delegates to remain bound. Obviously he sees himself as a kingmaker in The Room Where It Happens. ---
**Author:** ![dracoi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/90db22/32.png) [@dracoi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dracoi)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-event-of-a-contested-convention-who-do-you-think-will-be-the-republican-nominee-for-potus/751256/48 "2016-04-06T23:12:06Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > No, but Cruz is a smart guy and so are his handlers. He could quite conceivably pull out enough to prevent Trump from hitting 1237. And Kasich, while conceivably pulling more from Cruz than Trump, will still have some effect there. Yeah, it’s still a possibility for others. If I was Cruz’s campaign advisor, I’d tell him to push hard and follow through because the chance is still large enough to be worth trying. But as an armchair analyst who won’t even get to cast a primary ballot for another month… Trump’s odds of hitting 1237 look a lot better than I want them to. ---
**Author:** ![dracoi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/90db22/32.png) [@dracoi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dracoi)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-event-of-a-contested-convention-who-do-you-think-will-be-the-republican-nominee-for-potus/751256/49 "2016-04-06T23:14:09Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Even in the states where it’s up to the party and not the candidate, he’s asked for his delegates to remain bound. Obviously he sees himself as a kingmaker in The Room Where It Happens. I think saying that he sees himself as a kingmaker is a little unfair to him. He probably knows it isn’t likely to matter. Still, the convention is a long way away and he can change his recommendation to the delegates at virtually any time. No point in giving up any options that might be available later. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-event-of-a-contested-convention-who-do-you-think-will-be-the-republican-nominee-for-potus/751256/50 "2016-04-06T23:18:37Z")
“He’s tanned, rested and ready…” 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-event-of-a-contested-convention-who-do-you-think-will-be-the-republican-nominee-for-potus/751256/51 "2016-04-06T23:50:46Z")
The first Zombie candidate? That will help bring the undead vote over to the Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![oft\_wears\_hats](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7993a0/32.png) [@oft\_wears\_hats](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/oft_wears_hats)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-event-of-a-contested-convention-who-do-you-think-will-be-the-republican-nominee-for-potus/751256/52 "2016-04-06T23:55:56Z")
> [@dracoi](#): > > I think saying that he sees himself as a kingmaker is a little unfair to him. He probably knows it isn’t likely to matter. Still, the convention is a long way away and he can change his recommendation to the delegates at virtually any time. No point in giving up any options that might be available later. This. Doesn’t there tend to be a decent amount of political horsetrading that goes on at a contested convention? Since Rubio bungled the GOP nomination, it makes sense that he’d try to at least get some favors out of the delegates he did manage to win. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2016, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-event-of-a-contested-convention-who-do-you-think-will-be-the-republican-nominee-for-potus/751256/53 "2016-04-07T00:15:49Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > The first Zombie candidate? That will help bring the undead vote over to the Republicans. Nonsense. The Cook County, Illinois graveyards have always been strongly Democratic. ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2016, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-event-of-a-contested-convention-who-do-you-think-will-be-the-republican-nominee-for-potus/751256/54 "2016-04-07T00:57:21Z")
[quote=“Buck\_Godot, post:20, topic:751256”] … > [@Folacin](#): > > Actually, he’s a distant \*fourth \*- Rubio still has more pledged delegates (and has won an equal number of states), and I don’t believe he has released them. Actually Rubio won the District of Columbia & Puerto Rico in addition to Minnesota; Kasich has only won Ohio. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2016, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-event-of-a-contested-convention-who-do-you-think-will-be-the-republican-nominee-for-potus/751256/55 "2016-04-07T01:01:42Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > The first Zombie candidate? That will help bring the undead vote over to the Republicans. Looking at their conduct especially in the House, you’d think the undead are the Republican establishment. “I keep trying to kill it, but it _just…won’t…die_!” ---
**Author:** ![glowacks](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/glowacks/32/5548_2.png) [@glowacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glowacks)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2016, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-event-of-a-contested-convention-who-do-you-think-will-be-the-republican-nominee-for-potus/751256/56 "2016-04-07T02:59:09Z")
[quote=“alphaboi867, post:54, topic:751256”] > [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > … > > Actually Rubio won the District of Columbia & Puerto Rico in addition to Minnesota; Kasich has only won Ohio. Yes, but that doesn’t make the statement that they have won an equal number of states untrue. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-event-of-a-contested-convention-who-do-you-think-will-be-the-republican-nominee-for-potus/751256.md?page=2)