# In the Face of the Blue Wall, The 2016 Presidential Election IS the Democratic Primary **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 29, 2014, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446 "2014-12-29T15:50:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2014, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/41 "2014-12-30T13:29:06Z")
Speaking of cherry-picking facts, [third-quarter U.S. economic growth strongest in 11 years](http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/23/us-economy-gdp-idUSKBN0K111Y20141223). News like that must really piss off republicans. I don’t for a second believe in this unassailable “blue wall” nonsense. The presidential election has always been a popularity contest. The result could easily shake out like 2004, even without an incumbent for the republicans. Just because Obama pulled out two elections doesn’t mean anyone can do it. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2014, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/42 "2014-12-30T13:38:54Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Cherry pick alert. This is the opposite of cherry picking. You keep claiming that the public trusts Republicans more on issues that are important to them, so you cite a poll that asks which party do people trust on the issues most important to them. And the answer is that you, once again, are wrong. Seriously, how can you even argue with this? You were the one who linked to the cite that shows a poll that Americans prefer Democrats on issues that are most important to them! ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2014, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/43 "2014-12-30T13:59:45Z")
One poll out of oh, 50 on that page? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2014, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/44 "2014-12-30T14:15:13Z")
Not just one random question. It is literally the only question relevant to your claim! If I wanted to know which restaurant Americans like most, which approach would you recommend I take? 1. Ask Americans to name their favorite pizza place, hamburger joint, Chinese take out, and fine dining establishment. Then, knowing that pizza is usually Americans’ favorite food, state that the winner of the first polling question is America’s favorite restaurant. I’ll call this the **adaher** approach. 2. Ask Americans to name their favorite restaurant. I’ll call this the **Ravenman** approach. Saying that he latter approach is cherry picking because it asks the one relevant question to obtain the needed data, rather than asking a dozen questions to obtain a lot of noise, is really fucking stupid. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2014, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/45 "2014-12-30T15:41:24Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > The Democratic candidates in the last election got SLAUGHTERED running as Republican-lites. Those days are over. Or should be. Many Democratic Congressmen ARE Republican lites, they’ll want to run as such in 2016. That would be a mistake. There’s a fundamental difference between Presidential election years and midterms. In Presidential years, turnout is high, and you win if you can get the median voter on your side. But midterms, with their reduced turnout, are base years. The side that gives its people more, better reasons to turn out will be the winner. This is why Republican-lite works for the Dems in Presidential elections. But in the midterms, people who will vote Dem if they vote, but often don’t, aren’t exactly motivated by Republican-lite. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2014, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/46 "2014-12-30T15:49:47Z")
I think the Blue Wall will work for the Dems as long as they nominate relatively centrist Dems such as Obama and the Clintons. But if the Dems did nominate Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, the Blue Wall would disappear pretty fast, simply because regardless of whether Sanders or Warren are all that liberal, the groundwork is already there for them to be painted as such, and the GOP/Fox noise machine would do a good job of it. Fortunately, the Dems will in all likelihood nominate Hillary, even if Sanders or Warren makes a run for the nomination. I’m all for their doing so, just to remind Hillary that we’re out here. But I wouldn’t want to see her actually lose the nomination. The Dems need to win this Presidential election, so that when Scalia, Kennedy (who both turn 80 in 2016), and the Notorious RBG (who is already \>80) retire, a Dem will nominate their replacements. We’ve had too many decisions like _Citizens United_ and _Hobby Lobby_. ---
**Author:** ![pkbites](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pkbites/32/204_2.png) [@pkbites](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pkbites)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2014, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/47 "2014-12-30T17:43:21Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I think the Blue Wall will work for the Dems as long as they nominate relatively centrist Dems such as Obama and the Clintons. I don’t buy this “Obama is a centrist” stuff. But he is black and the black community voted heavily for him while in other elections they sometimes just stay home. I contend that a white Democratic President, with the same record as Obama, would have had their ass handed to them in 2012. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2014, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/48 "2014-12-30T17:49:06Z")
I do think it’s true that Obama is an exceptional candidate due to the support he gets in minority communities(not just black). When he’s not on the ballot, they not only don’t turn out, they are more likely to vote Republican. I really do think the 2016 election is going to look a lot like 2004. ---
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2014, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/49 "2014-12-30T18:08:10Z")
> [@pkbites](#): > > I don’t buy this “Obama is a centrist” stuff. But he is black and the black community voted heavily for him while in other elections they sometimes just stay home. > > I contend that a white Democratic President, with the same record as Obama, would have had their ass handed to them in 2012. Interesting theory. Which states would you say were tipped to Obama due to increased turnout by black voters? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2014, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/50 "2014-12-30T18:22:55Z")
> [@pkbites](#): > > I don’t buy this “Obama is a centrist” stuff. But he is black and the black community voted heavily for him while in other elections they sometimes just stay home. > > I contend that a white Democratic President, with the same record as Obama, would have had their ass handed to them in 2012. The number of eligible African American voters increased by 400,000 from 2004 to 2012. The turnout of AA voters was 66% in 2012, compared to 64% for white voters. In 2004, AA turnout of eligible voters was 60%. Obama won the 2012 election by 5 million votes. In order for your theory to be valid, I think the black population of the United States would have to be at least an order of magnitude larger than it really is. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2014, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/51 "2014-12-30T18:23:27Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Blue Wall = stupid idea. > > Nevada: Has elected Republican governors for a decade and a half, and Harry Reid’s win in 2010 over a terrible candidate was not confidence inspiring, and his 1998 reelection was by a mere 400 votes. > > Pennsylvania: any state that elects Rick Santorum and Pat Toomey can’t be called part of a Blue Wall. > > Wisconsin: Scott Walker. Nuff said. State level results aren’t really indicative of presidential level results. No one thinks that Kentucky is a swing state because they elected a Democratic governor. No one thinks Illinois is at risk because they elected a Republican governor. For the last couple elections, the GOP has given the “Pennsylvania is closing!” line and pumped money and campaign visits into it only to see it lost by 5%+. Out of those three, the only one I see an argument for is Nevada and Obama took that state by 7% in 2008 and 2012. Despite a Republican governor or Republican senate wins. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2014, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/52 "2014-12-30T19:02:51Z")
> [@pkbites](#): > > I don’t buy this “Obama is a centrist” stuff. But he is black and the black community voted heavily for him while in other elections they sometimes just stay home. > > I contend that a white Democratic President, with the same record as Obama, would have had their ass handed to them in 2012. If you look at the white share of voting in presidential elections, it has decreased by somewhat regular intervals going back decades. In 1972, it was 89%. In 2012, it was 71%, which was lower than 2008. Did Obama become more popular among minorities between 2008 and 2012? Not very likely. What is much more likely is that wider demographic and civic society changes have increased on the non-white share of the vote over a much longer arc than Obama’s presidency–by about 2% per term. There’s no particular reason to think this trend won’t continue post-Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2014, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/53 "2014-12-30T20:02:49Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I think the Blue Wall will work for the Dems as long as they nominate relatively centrist Dems such as Obama and the Clintons. > > But if the Dems did nominate Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, the Blue Wall would disappear pretty fast, simply because regardless of whether Sanders or Warren are all that liberal, the groundwork is already there for them to be painted as such, and the GOP/Fox noise machine would do a good job of it. Nah, most Dems will vote for ANY Dem nominee, just as most Republicans will vote for ANY Repub nominee. The same cloddish stupidity that protects Republican Presidential candidates ALSO protects Democratic Presidential candidates. > [@](#): > > Fortunately, the Dems will in all likelihood nominate Hillary, even if Sanders or Warren makes a run for the nomination. I’m all for their doing so, just to remind Hillary that we’re out here. How nice of you. > [@](#): > > But I wouldn’t want to see her actually lose the nomination. The Dems need to win this Presidential election, so that when Scalia, Kennedy (who both turn 80 in 2016), and the Notorious RBG (who is already \>80) retire, a Dem will nominate their replacements. We’ve had too many decisions like _Citizens United_ and _Hobby Lobby_. The Dems ALWAYS need to win the next presidential election to prevent Republicans from (place threat here). At some point, you have to ask yourself, is it worth it losing any chance of getting progressive input in the Democratic Party to prevent whatever horrible consequence is currently being predicted? And also, how true is it that only Hillary can win the Presidency? She’s way to the left of Americans on a lot of issues and she’s Wall Street’s bitch. I think Warren might actually have a better chance. People like her for challenging the banks. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2014, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/54 "2014-12-30T20:11:09Z")
> [@pkbites](#): > > I don’t buy this “Obama is a centrist” stuff. Can you say, “Trans-Pacific Partnership”? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2014, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/55 "2014-12-30T20:29:37Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > Nah, most Dems will vote for ANY Dem nominee, just as most Republicans will vote for ANY Repub nominee. “Most” isn’t enough. And the average Democrat is less intense about voting Dem than the average Republican is about voting Republican. In short, I would do everything I could to avoid putting your theory to the test. > [@](#): > > How nice of you. Yeah, I’m a real sweet guy. And believe me, I’m not doing it for you and your kind, people who are casual with other people’s lives and well-being because of their ideology. It’s bad enough that conservatives are like that. > [@](#): > > The Dems ALWAYS need to win the next presidential election to prevent Republicans from (place threat here). Yeah, and it’s often true. How much ground did we lose during the Bush Administration that we haven’t yet regained, on any number of fronts? But damned if there ain’t no such thing as Peak Wingnut. While Bush wasn’t willing to gut Social Security without Democratic cover, despite having GOP majorities in both houses of Congress, today’s GOP doesn’t give a damn what anyone thinks. And it’s a damned sight easier to tear stuff down than build it back up again. > [@](#): > > At some point, you have to ask yourself, is it worth it losing any chance of getting progressive input in the Democratic Party to prevent whatever horrible consequence is currently being predicted? How about getting progressive input the old-fashioned way - by building a progressive movement from the ground up? Nah, too much work. ☹ > [@](#): > > And also, how true is it that only Hillary can win the Presidency? She’s way to the left of Americans on a lot of issues and she’s Wall Street’s bitch. So, she’s way to the left of Americans, and way to their right, too? So, what are these issues (that people give two hoots about) that Hillary’s way to the left of Americans on? ---
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2014, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/56 "2014-12-30T22:58:52Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > The Blue Wall is the theory that the Democrats hold an unbeatable edge in Presidential races because the states that are solidly Democratic hold a total of 270 electoral college votes (accepting the notion that Virginia has swung Democratic in Presidential elections). And that happens to be precisely the number of electoral college votes you need to win a Presidential election. > > The Republicans, by contrast, have solid majorities of Presidential voters in states that have a total of 149 electoral college votes. > > There are only nine states in the US that are contestable, that is, where either party has a good chance of fielding a winning candidate. > > That means for a Republican Presidential candidate to win, he has to get all of his base states, win all nine of the contested states AND pick off a Blue Wall state. > > [Here’s the article](http://blog.chron.com/goplifer/2014/11/the-missing-story-of-the-2014-election/#28114101=0) (with a chart showing the various states) that started the Blue Wall meme. It was written by a Republican. > > My thought is that given that the Democrats have a lock on the Presidency, the REAL Presidential election in 2016 will be the Democratic primary. Hillary vs. Whomever. Hi, **Evil Captor**. This is just a duplicate of a [thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=741491) you put in this same forum a month ago. In that thread, as I’m sure you’ll recall, your claims about the “blue wall” were completely debunked with a wealth of facts, logic, and data. It was also pointed out that the guy who wrote the article that’s your one and only source in both OPs, Chris Ladd, has no particularly strong qualifications when it comes to statistics, and that there are many other, better sources out there. Given all that, I’m not sure why you would once again post claims that you know are false. Do you simply enjoy being proved wrong over and over again? To rehash: In 2012, the Democrats held a roughly 10-point advantage in party preference. In the latest poll, Republicans [hold](http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/Party-Affiliation.aspx) a 6-point advantage. That means that quite a lot of people who used to prefer the Democrats have abandoned them, and quite a lot of people who didn’t prefer the Republicans in 2012 now do. This will come as no surprise to any intelligent person, given the way that the Republicans butchered the Democrats in the last election. Hence, just because Obama won a particular set of states in the 2012 presidential election doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to win the same states in 2016. Moreover, to make matters even worse for Ladd’s theory, the Democrats lost elections in many states where they’re supposedly guaranteed to win: Wisconsin, Michigan, New Jersey, and even Massachusetts, among others. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2014, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/57 "2014-12-30T23:09:45Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > Moreover, to make matters even worse for Ladd’s theory, the Democrats lost elections in many states where they’re supposedly guaranteed to win: Wisconsin, Michigan, New Jersey, and even Massachusetts, among others. I’m not sure what you mean by “even Massachusetts.” Democrats were not supposedly guaranteed to win gubernatorial elections there. (The last Democrat to win that office before Deval Patrick was _Michael Dukakis._ In 1986.) ---
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2014, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/58 "2014-12-30T23:23:13Z")
That’s my point. **Evil Captor** and **BobLibDem** seem to believe that a certain collection of states is guaranteed to vote for the Democratic Presidential candidate in 2016, but they can’t offer any reason why we should believe this. I find it fairly likely that Massachusetts will vote for the Democratic nominee. But Wisconsin? Ohio? Michigan? All three of those states have conservative Republican governors who have cut taxes, cut regulations, battled unions, and produced strong economic growth. The voters in those states seem to like economic growth and prosperity, and demonstrated it by returning the Republican governors to office a few weeks ago. Do we really think that the same body of voters would go strongly for Hillary Clinton’s diet of higher taxes and more regulations, much less Elizabeth Warren’s diet of even higher taxes and even more regulations? ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2014, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/59 "2014-12-31T00:07:44Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > That’s my point. **Evil Captor** and **BobLibDem** seem to believe that a certain collection of states is guaranteed to vote for the Democratic Presidential candidate in 2016, but they can’t offer any reason why we should believe this. > > I find it fairly likely that Massachusetts will vote for the Democratic nominee. But Wisconsin? Ohio? Michigan? All three of those states have conservative Republican governors who have cut taxes, cut regulations, battled unions, and produced strong economic growth. The voters in those states seem to like economic growth and prosperity, and demonstrated it by returning the Republican governors to office a few weeks ago. > > Do we really think that the same body of voters would go strongly for Hillary Clinton’s diet of higher taxes and more regulations, much less Elizabeth Warren’s diet of even higher taxes and even more regulations? _Higher taxes and regulations_ is an utterance of faith, not a criticism. You can cut taxes stupidly, just as you can raise them stupidly. Also, those governors won with very low Dem turnout. The GOP gets voters by stoking inchoate rage. That gets people to show up on election day, even on non-presidential years. But there is no reason Dems won’t show up when the big show is on. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2014, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/60 "2014-12-31T00:26:40Z")
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